Speculation: What moves are Tampa going to make?

[DownIsTheNewUp]

Palat owns a full ntc for the upcoming season. Best teams have spent their cap space so the only ones left are the weaker teams. Are these guys willing to waive to go to the bottom teams. Then the next question is whether the bottom teams want to spend money during Covid if they are not expected to make the playoffs?

it isn’t that TB gets to do whatever they want. There are going to be restrictions from the player.

I wasn't commenting on the likelihood of Palat being moved. I don't think Tampa has any interest in moving him, nor he waiving his NTC. My comment was in response to the guy saying nobody would touch Palat without taking a huge add.

 

[Eggtimer]

It's not just the cap hit it is the # of yr.s left on the contract.

Palat 2 @ 5.3 mil 50 pts
Gourde 5 @ 5.166 40 pts
Johnson 4 @ 5.0 mil 50 pts
Killorn 3 @ 4.45 mil 50 pts

I wouldn't touch one of these contract in today's market without a huge add.
Alot of teams will have there own young players to sign in the next 2 yrs.

If they are going to sign all there rfas , they will have to trade 3 of those contracts to break even.
3 1st rd pks minimum
The bottom teams with cap space have there own internal cap for the next 2 yrs.

Thanks for the post, I was too lazy to look up those guys’ contracts .
As a Devils fan , one of the few teams with cap room , I would not like any of those players given the contracts they have .
Yes , all of them would be “nice” to have on the team , but not at anywhere close to the term and salary they have .
Cap space is just too valuable right now. Sure we have room right now , but that would be filled up very quick if we were to even take one of the players mentioned above . I can’t see three other teams willing and able to take the remainder of those players.....
It’s going to cost Tampa at the very least trading one or more of their RFA’s plus multiple draft picks / and/or prospects.
I can’t see prospects being added as they need those players on ELC to fill the holes left in the roster?
Palat would be the highest desired player IMO , but is also the player Tampa probably wants to let go the least of the bunch ....
I hope GMs wait it out and don’t take one of those players , in hopes that it forces Tampa’s hand to move one or more of their RFA’s .
I would wayyyyyyy rather have Sergachev than Palat.
Even if there was an add along with Palat (not sure if it’s come to that yet )
Tampa would at least get some assets back by trading Serg rather than having to add them.

 

[Eggtimer]

1. Of the players that Tampa wants to move , which ones are going to waive for a team that has cap room (bottom tier team )?

2. Which bottom tier team has a roster need for an older player with term plus 4-5 million cap hit that is a big enough upgrade to warrant the cost ?

3. Why take on this cap to get a player when you “could” have a chance at one of their RFA’s that they may be forced to move due to no one wanting one of TJ Gourde Killorn etc.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Ya, the Hawks had to move some very good players like Byfuglien due to cap after their Cup win in 2010. Versteeg was another. I'm sure Hawks would have loved to keep Byfuglien as defenders of that quality and ilk aren't easy to find.

Those trades you mentioned weren't straight cap dumps. Chicago didn't give away Byfuglien for nothing, the got a 1st and 2nd round pick back, he had a career high of 34 points at that time. In the Teravainen deal they got a 2nd and 3rd back, he just finished an ok 2nd season and didn't have a good playoffs. Malakhov refused to play for NJ and they were carrying dead cap because of it so they wanted the cap space. So Tampa looking to move Johnson isn't like any of those because they aren't looking to get back any high draft picks or anything really, he also isn't going to not play so you will be getting a useful player back so I don't see why they would need to add a 1st. For Killorn they probably expect picks back but more like the Carolina trade with a hope for a 2nd but settle for a 3rd.

 

[Eggtimer]

So Tampa looking to move Johnson isn't like any of those because they aren't looking to get back any high draft picks or anything really, he also isn't going to not play so you will be getting a useful player back so I don't see why they would need to add a 1st. For Killorn they probably expect picks back but more like the Carolina trade with a hope for a 2nd but settle for a 3rd.

So far TJ with a 2nd didn’t work and neither did him on waivers for free. Any pick from Tampa is going to be a late round pick .
So how do you think that a first is not needed ? A second didn’t work so....???Is a 2nd and a third?
Nope.

 

[Big Muddy]

Those trades you mentioned weren't straight cap dumps. Chicago didn't give away Byfuglien for nothing, the got a 1st and 2nd round pick back, he had a career high of 34 points at that time. In the Teravainen deal they got a 2nd and 3rd back, he just finished an ok 2nd season and didn't have a good playoffs. Malakhov refused to play for NJ and they were carrying dead cap because of it so they wanted the cap space. So Tampa looking to move Johnson isn't like any of those because they aren't looking to get back any high draft picks or anything really, he also isn't going to not play so you will be getting a useful player back so I don't see why they would need to add a 1st. For Killorn they probably expect picks back but more like the Carolina trade with a hope for a 2nd but settle for a 3rd.

OK, but the point I was making is that its not unusual for teams that have won the Cup to have to move players because of cap issues.

The other thing to consider is that there wasn't a flat cap or tough economic times due to a pandemic until now either, so the current situation is definitely a very unusual circumstance. This means that teams will be watching the financial picture much more so than in years past. So, its quite possible (or likely) that what will unfold in this situation will not be "typical" in any way either. The current situation goes beyond just a cap crunch. We will see what the end result is in due time.

 

[Vasilevskiy]

You would read this thread and think that Palat is on the Lucic contract and performing like him. Jesus christ

 

[Hockeyholic]

They don't need to do much. They are still the clear best team in the league.

 

[Whileee]

This is the shock to me. His name isn't even mentioned in rumors. Its been Johnson or Stamkos in the rumor mill.

While fans on here would rather talk gloom and doom of situation, I wonder if TBL has decided not to move Killorn based on his leadership and improvement this year.

Hard to see how TB can even contemplate re-signing Sergachev and Cirelli without moving Killorn. They would need to trade Johnson in addition to Killorn, not instead. Trading Stamkos is not even a rational option at this point.

 

[Eggtimer]

Hard to see how TB can even contemplate re-signing Sergachev and Cirelli without moving Killorn. They would need to trade Johnson in addition to Killorn, not instead. Trading Stamkos is not even a rational option at this point.

No way Tampa should / would move Stamkos . Not saying what his worth is , but it would be very hard to take on his cap hit and in doing so , take some risk with his injury .
Can’t see Tampa shipping their captain off either . For numerous reasons
I’m not saying that Stamkos’s value is crap , just that not many teams could make room plus still be a contender plus afford to give up assets that it would take . And on top , be a package that would give Tampa enough cap room without gambling on a few prospects they would get back

 

[Guttersniped]

OK, but the point I was making is that its not unusual for teams that have won the Cup to have to move players because of cap issues. I didn't say the words "cap dump" anywhere in my post.

The other thing to consider is that there wasn't a flat cap or tough economic times due to a pandemic until now either, so the current situation is definitely a very unusual circumstance. This means that teams will be watching the financial picture much more so than in years past. So, its quite possible (or likely) what will unfold in this situation not will be "typical" in any way either. The current situation goes beyond just a cap crunch. We will see what the end result is in due time.

This basically, it’s the cap apocalypse. BriseBois, like every GM, was planning to limbo under a cap limit that was going to be rising every year. Teams were counting especially on a generous bump in 21-21 from Seattle, since the Vegas $ led to 4.5m bump in 18-19. The cap instead is frozen for two years and the increases in the following two years, if any, will be very modest.

Despite the somewhat outlandish numbers quoted from league sources right before everything went to hell, some thought the cap was only going up 2-2.5m due to escrow issues. However even the cap went 2m in this season and the next and then 4.5m, which is a very conservative estimate of non-COVID growth, that’s still 263.5m new cap space for the 31 current teams over three years.

Teams need to conserve cap space for their players on ELCs and their RFAs. And all this is ignoring the internal caps that teams have while revenue is not a thing.

This is a list of every forward to receive a standard contract 3 years or longer since May 1st:
Anderson (Montreal) 7 years/5.5m [RFA]
Gallagher (Montreal) 6 years/6.5m [21-22 ext]
Toffoli (Montreal) 4 years/4.25m [UFA]
Lebanc (San Jose) 4 years/4.725m [RFA]
Stephenson (Vegas) 4 years/2.75m [RFA]
Dadonov (Ottawa) 3 years/5m [UFA]
Smith (Boston) 3 years/3.10m [UFA]
Girgensons (Buffalo) 3 years/2.2m [UFA]
Fast (Carolina) 3 years/2m [UFA]
Grant (Anaheim) 3 years/1.5m [UFA]
C. Brown (Ottawa) 3 years/3.6m [RFA]
Lindblom (Philadelphia) 3 year/3.0m [RFA]
Bjork (Boston) 3 years/1.6m [RFA]
Terry (Anaheim) 3 years/1.45m [RFA]
T. Thompson (Buffalo) 3 years/1.4m [RFA]
A. Wagner (LA) 3 years/1.13m [RFA]

Other than, uh, whatever Bergevin is doing it’s clear that teams are being the most conservative with forward contracts. The majority of bigger UFA deals were to defensemen and goalies, GMs want bargains and short term deals for forwards. Even the majority of non-forward deals were with teams replacing a major lost piece, with only Vegas made the usual big UFA splash (and, uh, Montreal).

The point of all this is Tampa wants to move those forward contracts without retaining salary or taking salary back then those contracts are the equivalent of UFA deals that no forwards weren’t getting this year. Even the few exceptions don’t seem applicable anywhere else, Bergevin is marching to beat of his own drum with the deals he’s giving out right now and Dadonov likely got the money Duclair turned down that was part of the Sen’s budget to reach the floor. There’s no market.

Maybe sweeteners can get Johnson moved, but four years makes it tough. I’m surprised BriseBois hasn’t shopped Killorn yet, he should be easier to move. I still feel like maybe teams aren’t doing painful cap dumps until they have to and that means when actual NHL games are scheduled. Vegas needed the space to sign AP and Toews filed for arbitration, but the 2020-21 season is a little hazy still so GMs might be holding off on doing anything drastic.

 

[HoseEmDown]

So far TJ with a 2nd didn’t work and neither did him on waivers for free. Any pick from Tampa is going to be a late round pick .
So how do you think that a first is not needed ? A second didn’t work so....???Is a 2nd and a third?
Nope.

Source? I have not seen any news suggesting we offered a 2nd with Johnson to move him.

 

[StreetHawk]

I wasn't commenting on the likelihood of Palat being moved. I don't think Tampa has any interest in moving him, nor he waiving his NTC. My comment was in response to the guy saying nobody would touch Palat without taking a huge add.

Any team would look at each player in terms of their own scenario. Will the player help them accomplish what they want over the remaining term of the contract?

Palat is kind of similar to Johnson. Put up big numbers around 2015 but his production since has tailed off. Emergence of Kucherov and Point have pushed him down.

63 points in 2015. Since then he's played between 56 to 75 games a season. His regular season production is around in the 40's. He is coming off a very good playoff. But, he's likely not getting moved to a good team, so if you are a weaker team looking at him, you are focussing on his regular season production, which has been on a decline over the past 5 seasons. So, you are realistically getting a 40-45 point a season guy at $5.2 mill cap hit at that money.

At this point, I would say that he's not a player that teams with cap space have a desire to acquire. Regular season production would be their focus since they won't be in the playoff conversation. So, if his production is around the 40's, do you want that for $5.2 million in real cash? So, for me, I'd be asking for an asset in return.

In the open market, I think he drops, similiar to how Toffoli went from $4.6 cap hit down to a $4.25 mill cap hit. Think Palat who is a year older would have to take a hit down to $4.75 mill or less if he was a UFA this off-season based on his production recently.

 

[Flyer lurker]

Hard to see how TB can even contemplate re-signing Sergachev and Cirelli without moving Killorn. They would need to trade Johnson in addition to Killorn, not instead. Trading Stamkos is not even a rational option at this point.

I would agree with you 8 weeks ago but it has been interesting so far. And maybe JBB is keeping quiet what he want to keep quiet. Just seeing the stuff to come out so far has me going hmmmm.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

At this point, it seems to me like we'll be pondering what TB has up their sleeves right up until... whenever training camps finally open. Is that January, February, ????? I guess they are in no rush.

 

[CupsOverCash]

What moves they gonna make? Tampa is gonna try to win the world series now and tom Brady and gronk are gonna try to win the Super bowl which is being played in Tampa. They won't move much there but big "moves" other wise..

 

[horner]

Palat played on the first line on the Stanley Cup winning team and was completely dominating in the Boston series. Clearly a terrible player.

I never said that any of these players are terrible.
Take a quick look at what players are signing for this yr.

Most owner are trying to get rid if contracts .
Three yrs flat cap
Canadian and USA border is still closed
No fans opening. Night January 2021
Building won't be full until 2021 next season we Hope.

The only thing that is certain is uncertainly .

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

Any team would look at each player in terms of their own scenario. Will the player help them accomplish what they want over the remaining term of the contract?

Palat is kind of similar to Johnson. Put up big numbers around 2015 but his production since has tailed off. Emergence of Kucherov and Point have pushed him down.

63 points in 2015. Since then he's played between 56 to 75 games a season. His regular season production is around in the 40's. He is coming off a very good playoff. But, he's likely not getting moved to a good team, so if you are a weaker team looking at him, you are focussing on his regular season production, which has been on a decline over the past 5 seasons. So, you are realistically getting a 40-45 point a season guy at $5.2 mill cap hit at that money.

At this point, I would say that he's not a player that teams with cap space have a desire to acquire. Regular season production would be their focus since they won't be in the playoff conversation. So, if his production is around the 40's, do you want that for $5.2 million in real cash? So, for me, I'd be asking for an asset in return.

In the open market, I think he drops, similiar to how Toffoli went from $4.6 cap hit down to a $4.25 mill cap hit. Think Palat who is a year older would have to take a hit down to $4.75 mill or less if he was a UFA this off-season based on his production recently.

Again, if you are looking to Palat for point production you don't understand what kind of player he is. He's an unbelievable two way player, he wins battles along the boards, he makes all the smart plays. He's the type of guy that makes your star players better. The Palat-Point-Kucherov line was better than the Stamkos-Point-Kucherov line because Palat does all of the dirty work along the boards so well to set the other guys up. That frees Stamkos up, when healthy, to add much needed scoring to our second line, which did virtually no scoring in the playoffs. If you think Palat is similar to Johnson I don't know what to tell you, did you watch the playoffs?
Before this year I might agree with you, his game looked like it was in a bit in a decline and he had dealt with some injuries. Last offseason he changed his training regimen to focus on speed rather than bulking up and he looked like the Palat from 5 years ago.

 

[StreetHawk]

The Johnson comparison was in terms of his production dropping over the past few seasons, being pushed down with Point and Kucherov emerging.

Palat at this point is probably more valuable to a good team than he would be on a weaker team. Issue again, is that the good teams have basically spent their cap space. But, again, Palat owns a full NTC and if I were him, I wouldn't be waiving it even if TB asked me.

TB can ask their guys with NTC to waive, but I don't see why they would waive. None are in a position to sign an extension to give them more security. Managing the cap is TB's issue. If they wish to waive me they are free to do so.

 

[BB06]

What moves they gonna make? Tampa is gonna try to win the world series now and tom Brady and gronk are gonna try to win the Super bowl which is being played in Tampa. They won't move much there but big "moves" other wise..

Can you imagine the type of Goat shit that’s be if Brady brought the super bowl to Tampa.

 

[horner]

Those trades you mentioned weren't straight cap dumps. Chicago didn't give away Byfuglien for nothing, the got a 1st and 2nd round pick back, he had a career high of 34 points at that time. In the Teravainen deal they got a 2nd and 3rd back, he just finished an ok 2nd season and didn't have a good playoffs. Malakhov refused to play for NJ and they were carrying dead cap because of it so they wanted the cap space. So Tampa looking to move Johnson isn't like any of those because they aren't looking to get back any high draft picks or anything really, he also isn't going to not play so you will be getting a useful player back so I don't see why they would need to add a 1st. For Killorn they probably expect picks back but more like the Carolina trade with a hope for a 2nd but settle for a 3rd.

Big Buf Was 24 yrs of age at that time
Playoffs 22 gp 11 g 5 a 16 pts

Trade
Big Buf for 24th overall pk
Sopel. 54th overall pk
Eager. Reasoner
Alu. Crabb
. Morin

Traded
Panarin 82 31 43 74
For
Saad 82 24 29 53

Selling penny's on the dollar for these 2 young players

 

[HoseEmDown]

Big Buf Was 24 yrs of age at that time
Playoffs 22 gp 11 g 5 a 16 pts

Trade
Big Buf for 24th overall pk
Sopel. 54th overall pk
Eager. Reasoner
Alu. Crabb
. Morin

Traded
Panarin 82 31 43 74
For
Saad 82 24 29 53

Selling penny's on the dollar for these 2 young players

Buff was 25, career high of 36 points and didn't have a defined position. Yes you can tell he had skills to be a very good player but he wasn't one just yet. He had one more year left on his deal before he needed a new contract and they wouldn't be able to keep him. Getting a 1st + 2nd + player drafted in the 2nd the year prior(Morin) isn't a bad return when trying to shed cap on a non core player. Chicago did draft Hayes, the good one, with the 1st. I don't think they did bad given the situation they were in.

 

[These Are The Days]

There’s some really cool shit in Canada we can’t show the Americans. Sorry buds.

You have no idea how much I appreciate the South Park reference

 

[HBK27]

Good article by Mirtle looking at how much cap space each team is estimated to have after signing RFA's: The NHL's salary cap crunch: How much do all 31 teams have left to spend?

He's projecting Tampa's 3 RFA's to cost $11M and the team to be over the cap by $8.7M.

There's really only 8 teams out there (according to his projections) that can currently absorb a contract such as Johnson's or Palat's: Columbus, Anaheim, New Jersey, Nashville, Florida, Los Angeles, Detroit & Ottawa. Of these teams, I'm guessing Nashville and maybe Florida would have the highest chance of a Tampa player waiving their NTC to move to.

 

[Byrddog]

At this point, it seems to me like we'll be pondering what TB has up their sleeves right up until... whenever training camps finally open. Is that January, February, ????? I guess they are in no rush.

While that sounds reasonable if and of the contracts were going to be moved out at a reasonable cost it would have been done by now. The thing is The three names mentioned Johnson, Killorn and Palat have the ability to block most teams that would be interested in there service. Even teams that may well be on there lists have the upper hand and would expect retention and additional assets. All the while 3 RF's that many teams would like to scoop up are sitting on there hands. The more time that passes makes it more likely teams will hold out to snag Cirelli and Sergichev. This is a powerplay now the Bolts need to keep Sergichev and Chernak or the D takes a even bigger hit. In my mind the best case scenerio is going to be selling off one contract to sign the two Dmen. Retention is not going to work so its down to trading picks and players to sweeten the deal. Picks are not a strong sell either Tampas 1st round pick is going to be close to a 2nd and that is not going to be enough to take the term of Johnson on. As outlandish as it may sound there may be a scenario where Johnson and Cirelli is packaged. Those wishing and hoping for a team to just help the recent Cup winner out with Cap relief is absurd those teams know the crack JBB is in and unless the deal is very lopsided in there favor they sit on the cap they have left. You know what Poile has said in the last week or so you can bet other GM's are watching pennies too.