Speculation: What moves are Tampa going to make?

[Legion34]

At what point do they not just try to trade Serg/cirelli/cernak

for futures?

 

[HBK27]

At what point do they not just try to trade Serg/cirelli/cernak

for futures?

I think that's a last resort for them. I think we see Palat and Killorn go on waivers before that happens.

 

[jgimp]

You would read this thread and think that Palat is on the Lucic contract and performing like him. Jesus christ

Given COVID, the uncertainty and the years of flat cap he may as well be

 

[Djp]

You would read this thread and think that Palat is on the Lucic contract and performing like him. Jesus christ

I didn’t NT think that at all on Palat.

He’s one of the easier players to move

I think that's a last resort for them. I think we see Palat and Killorn go on waivers before that happens.

Palat and Killorn have the shortes term so it easier on the acquiring team.

The ones rebuilding like la or Detroit woukd say to the fans thst if they acquired Johnson they didn’t feel their team will be competitive for 5 yrs

 

[mouz135]

Good article by Mirtle looking at how much cap space each team is estimated to have after signing RFA's: The NHL's salary cap crunch: How much do all 31 teams have left to spend?

He's projecting Tampa's 3 RFA's to cost $11M and the team to be over the cap by $8.7M.

There's really only 8 teams out there (according to his projections) that can currently absorb a contract such as Johnson's or Palat's: Columbus, Anaheim, New Jersey, Nashville, Florida, Los Angeles, Detroit & Ottawa. Of these teams, I'm guessing Nashville and maybe Florida would have the highest chance of a Tampa player waiving their NTC to move to.

Spicy. I look forward to seeing what type of hoops Tampa jumps through to clear their cap - it’ll be difficult.

They better not wait too long though or teams will fill their rosters

 

[Price is Wright]

My prediction is still that Detroit and Tampa will make a big trade that gets Tampa out of their cap crunch and stocks Detroit up to no longer be a league embarrassment and the rest of the league will cry foul about it.

Something like Johnson (agreeing to waive), Killorn (agreeing to waive or not on his list), a 1st and a 2nd, maybe sending Raddish or Foote as well, and Detroit sends a player or two at 50% retained back. Tampa gets the RFAs signed, Detroit to certainly turn their franchise around faster.

The rest of the league will complain even though they could have got Tampa out of their situation for a premium as well but decided not to.

 

[Big Muddy]

I didn’t NT think that st all on Palat.

He’s one of the eadier players to mice.

????? .....

 

[BoltSTH]

Move Cirelli for picks/prospects and use some of those assets to move Johnson and Killorn. Sergachev is part of the core now, and stated recently in Russia that he wants to play for TB until he is 40; it would take an insane OS (4 1sts) and he might not sign an OS, or a massive overpayment for him to be moved.

 

[Djp]

????? .....

????? .....

fixed it--neighboring letter+ auto-correct does wonders

 

[HBK27]

My prediction is still that Detroit and Tampa will make a big trade that gets Tampa out of their cap crunch and stocks Detroit up to no longer be a league embarrassment and the rest of the league will cry foul about it.

Something like Johnson (agreeing to waive), Killorn (agreeing to waive or not on his list), a 1st and a 2nd, maybe sending Raddish or Foote as well, and Detroit sends a player or two at 50% retained back. Tampa gets the RFAs signed, Detroit to certainly turn their franchise around faster.

The rest of the league will complain even though they could have got Tampa out of their situation for a premium as well but decided not to.

The obvious issue with this is getting Johnson and/or Killorn to agree to waive their NTC's to go and play in Detroit. I just don't see what incentive any player has to waive their NTC to go from the Stanley Cup champs to one of the worst teams in recent history. The tax difference between Florida and Michigan is also significant. Players' take home salaries are going down the next few seasons as the escrow increases since revenue is coming down and it's a 50/50 owner/player split. That's a tough sell to get any of these Tampa players to waive to go to Detroit (and I'd be floored if Detroit wasn't one of the 16 teams on Killorn's no-trade list).

Not sure how much interest Detroit really has in speeding up the rebuild process by taking on a pair of 30+ year old players that likely won't be around when they're competitive again and doling out $30M+ in salary over the next few seasons to do so.

I could see a team like Detroit being involved in a 3-way deal by absorbing salary to help get these players to a more desirable team at a reduced cap hit, but the cost for a team like Detroit to absorb a multi-year dead cap hit and pay out millions of dollars in dead money would be really high.

 

[Big Muddy]

Detroit, Ottawa and NJD are the three teams that people think are the landing spot for bad contracts.

All three are above the cap floor now.

Given the current economic climate and shaky revenue picture, would it be hard for a GM to sell an owner on the idea of taking on a bad contract from another team without taking on some kind of worthwhile & noteworthy incentive?

 

[Big Muddy]

My prediction is still that Detroit and Tampa will make a big trade that gets Tampa out of their cap crunch and stocks Detroit up to no longer be a league embarrassment and the rest of the league will cry foul about it.

Something like Johnson (agreeing to waive), Killorn (agreeing to waive or not on his list), a 1st and a 2nd, maybe sending Raddish or Foote as well, and Detroit sends a player or two at 50% retained back. Tampa gets the RFAs signed, Detroit to certainly turn their franchise around faster.

The rest of the league will complain even though they could have got Tampa out of their situation for a premium as well but decided not to.

Johnson and Killorn are going to turn Detroit around? And, not sure Detroit would be willing to retain either. The 1st, 2nd and a good TBL prospect part is the part that makes the most sense.

 

[Eggtimer]

Detroit, Ottawa and NJD are the three teams that people think are the landing spot for bad contracts.

All three are above the cap floor now.

Given the current economic climate and shaky revenue picture, would it be hard for a GM to sell an owner on the idea of taking on a bad contract from another team without taking on some kind of worthwhile & noteworthy incentive?

I cant see the Devils going after a forward as their biggest need is D . Unless a very good D prospect is added in the deal like Foote. But im guessing Foote will be needed by Tampa to fill a roster spot and his ELC is a huge need to help fill out the roster with a low cap hit. Not sure how that works though wiht expansion rules , if Foote would then need to be protected if he plays this year for Tampa . I'm guessing he would not ?

 

[Stickpucker]

The obvious issue with this is getting Johnson and/or Killorn to agree to waive their NTC's to go and play in Detroit. I just don't see what incentive any player has to waive their NTC to go from the Stanley Cup champs to one of the worst teams in recent history. The tax difference between Florida and Michigan is also significant. Players' take home salaries are going down the next few seasons as the escrow increases since revenue is coming down and it's a 50/50 owner/player split. That's a tough sell to get any of these Tampa players to waive to go to Detroit (and I'd be floored if Detroit wasn't one of the 16 teams on Killorn's no-trade list).

Not sure how much interest Detroit really has in speeding up the rebuild process by taking on a pair of 30+ year old players that likely won't be around when they're competitive again and doling out $30M+ in salary over the next few seasons to do so.

I could see a team like Detroit being involved in a 3-way deal by absorbing salary to help get these players to a more desirable team at a reduced cap hit, but the cost for a team like Detroit to absorb a multi-year dead cap hit and pay out millions of dollars in dead money would be really high.

TB send futures to Det for "future considerations". TB waives Johnson and Kilorn and Detroit submit claims on them.

Problem solved.

 

[HBK27]

I cant see the Devils going after a forward as their biggest need is D . Unless a very good D prospect is added in the deal like Foote. But im guessing Foote will be needed by Tampa to fill a roster spot and his ELC is a huge need to help fill out the roster with a low cap hit. Not sure how that works though wiht expansion rules , if Foote would then need to be protected if he plays this year for Tampa . I'm guessing he would not ?

Foote would need to be protected in the expansion draft as he's already played 2 pro years.

That's another issue Tampa is going to need to deal with at some point. If they are able to retain Sergachev and Cernak, then they would need to go to a 4F / 4D in order to protect Foote in the expansion draft (with Hedman being the other D protected & Tampa taking the chance Seattle doesn't pick up McDonagh). That would leave only 1 additional forward spot after Kucherov, Stamkos & Point - which would probably go to Cirelli if he's retained, which leaves perhaps their top prospect in Barre-Boulet exposed.

 

[Rschmitz]

Foote would need to be protected in the expansion draft as he's already played 2 pro years.

That's another issue Tampa is going to need to deal with at some point. If they are able to retain Sergachev and Cernak, then they would need to go to a 4F / 4D in order to protect Foote in the expansion draft (with Hedman being the other D protected & Tampa taking the chance Seattle doesn't pick up McDonagh). That would leave only 1 additional forward spot after Kucherov, Stamkos & Point - which would probably go to Cirelli if he's retained, which leaves perhaps their top prospect in Barre-Boulet exposed.

That's easy, we expose McD

 

[HBK27]

TB send futures to Det for "future considerations". TB waives Johnson and Kilorn and Detroit submit claims on them.

Problem solved.

Perhaps - though can someone clarify that if Detroit were to use a waiver claim on Johnson, would they still have have the top priority to then also select Killorn?

I'm also not sure how the NHL and NHLPA would view this, as it would be a clear attempt to circumvent NTC's. Not sure the NHL would just allow some lopsided "multiple high picks and prospects for future considerations" type of trade, which clearly is tied to these players being claimed by Detroit on waivers.

 

[HBK27]

That's easy, we expose McD

Yeah, I said that.

So, who are you protecting between Hedman, Sergachev, Cernack and Foote? Or are you protecting all 4, but then only 4 forwards instead of 7? In that case, which forwards?

 

[Stickpucker]

Perhaps - though can someone clarify that if Detroit were to use a waiver claim on Johnson, would they still have have the top priority to then also select Killorn?

I'm also not sure how the NHL and NHLPA would view this, as it would be a clear attempt to circumvent NTC's. Not sure the NHL would just allow some lopsided "multiple high picks and prospects for future considerations" type of trade, which clearly is tied to these players being claimed by Detroit on waivers.

No one took Johnson the last time through so I would assume they prioritize Kilorn as their first claim then Johnson.

 

[r0bert8841]

Detroit, Ottawa and NJD are the three teams that people think are the landing spot for bad contracts.

All three are above the cap floor now.

Given the current economic climate and shaky revenue picture, would it be hard for a GM to sell an owner on the idea of taking on a bad contract from another team without taking on some kind of worthwhile & noteworthy incentive?

I agree its going to be a hard sell to get the Owners to even take on the money. I feel like thats going to be part of what drives the price so high.

 

[Diaspora]

I don't think Tampa's going to dump a $4-5m contract anywhere without taking at least a $1-2m salary back. You'd have to make at least three moves (out of Killorn, Johnson, Goude, Palat) to get yourselves close to what you need without big sweeteners added in. I don't know that you have enough sugar.

How 'bout sending Sergachev to Buffalo for Brandon Montour and a 2021 1st (lottery protected)? Montour is a top-4 puck-moving RD on a one-year contract. He'll probably play really well with a strong team, balance out your RD vs LD and it will save you $2mil over Sergachev. You can use the 1st to bootstrap yourselves the rest of the way out of cap hell. Next year either keep him (he's only a couple years older than Sergachev) or let him walk, if you have a better option (like Cal Foote).

 

[McJedi]

One of the guys on that list is, currently, better than any of our RFAs.

Palat has two years on that deal and he’s the best player. That’s a contact I’m still certain has positive value. I’m also certain T Johnson’s contract is deeply negative.

I think Groude would clear waivers if waived so his is probably negative value.

killorn? I have no froggen idea.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Yanni Gourde to Detroit hopefully.

 

[HoseEmDown]

I don't think Tampa's going to dump a $4-5m contract anywhere without taking at least a $1-2m salary back. You'd have to make at least three moves (out of Killorn, Johnson, Goude, Palat) to get yourselves close to what you need without big sweeteners added in. I don't know that you have enough sugar.

How 'bout sending Sergachev to Buffalo for Brandon Montour and a 2021 1st (lottery protected)? Montour is a top-4 puck-moving RD on a one-year contract. He'll probably play really well with a strong team, balance out your RD vs LD and it will save you $2mil over Sergachev. You can use the 1st to bootstrap yourselves the rest of the way out of cap hell. Next year either keep him (he's only a couple years older than Sergachev) or let him walk, if you have a better option (like Cal Foote).

Do you know how terrible this idea is? So we take back a D making 3.85M, which we could possibly bridge Sergachev for, and who's a UFA at years end that we most likely can't even resign. Hey but we get a lottery protected 1st back so how can we say no.

 

[Rschmitz]

Yeah, I said that.

So, who are you protecting between Hedman, Sergachev, Cernack and Foote? Or are you protecting all 4, but then only 4 forwards instead of 7? In that case, which forwards?

We are protecting all 4 and protecting Point, Kucherov, Stamkos, and Cirelli. Not a difficult choice