Speculation: What moves are Tampa going to make?

[hmc1987]

YOU HAVE TO OVERPAY CIRELLI AND SERGE TO A RIDICULOUS AMOUNT TO LEAVE TB AND MOVE TO CANADA.

Based on what? I would imagine most hockey players would prefer a Canadian city to live at this point

 

[Bankers Box]

Based on what? I would imagine most hockey players would prefer a Canadian city to live at this point

I highly doubt that.

Canadians are still migrating to the US at a much higher rate than Americans to Canada, even with all the craziness of Trump and COVID.

Add on top of that fact is that professional hockey players can insulate themselves from everything much better than the average person.

 

[hmc1987]

I highly doubt that.

Canadians are still migrating to the US at a much higher rate than Americans to Canada, even with all the craziness of Trump and COVID.

Add on top of that fact is that professional hockey players can insulate themselves from everything much better than the average person.

I've lived entire life in US. If my family wasn't here I'd be moving to Canada - when the borders open - as soon as possible.

Canada is like a dreamland in comparison to US.

 

[Rschmitz]

Based on what? I would imagine most hockey players would prefer a Canadian city to live at this point

Because of taxes and being on a championship team....duh

 

[Master P]

I've lived entire life in US. If my family wasn't here I'd be moving to Canada - when the borders open - as soon as possible.

Canada is like a dreamland in comparison to US.

Thanks, I needed a good laugh.

 

[Flyer lurker]

Based on what? I would imagine most hockey players would prefer a Canadian city to live at this point

You think more hockey players would rather pay more taxes, leave sunshine, and go to a worse team? So how many star players (Point, Stamkos) have taken 20-25% less money to go to Canada? Not talking Tavares getting paid. I'm talking 20-25% discount.

 

[Forge]

Based on what? I would imagine most hockey players would prefer a Canadian city to live at this point

Attributing how you feel to the majority of hockey players without anything to support it is a bold strategy

 

[Big Muddy]

I highly doubt that.

Canadians are still migrating to the US at a much higher rate than Americans to Canada, even with all the craziness of Trump and COVID.

Add on top of that fact is that professional hockey players can insulate themselves from everything much better than the average person.

Do you have a link for this? I'd like to read it because its a subject of interest to me as a dual citizen.

I did a search and found this stating the opposite:

Coronavirus has more Americans seeking Canadian residence | wusa9.com

But, I'd prefer additional info (i.e., something more comprehensive) on this subject versus just this one article. The idea of the "rate" doesn't surprise me, but I wondered if the numbers are decreasing on one side (Canada to the U.S.) and increasing on the other side (U.S. to Canada).

Again, just wanting more info versus coming into this subject with a preconceived point of view.

 

[StreetHawk]

Attributing how you feel to the majority of hockey players without anything to support it is a bold strategy

Agreed, as Players maximize their earnings.

Players have a short window in their 20's and early 30's to make their money. So, they can always retire in their 30's to raise their children in Canada if they wanted to.

But, we've seen plenty of second generation players now who represent the USA despite having Canadian fathers. That is not surprising since their fathers likely married someone from the USA where they played and likely retired in the last or one of their last stops in the NHL.

 

[Vitto79]

Kinda surprised Killorn isn’t gone for mid round picks yet

 

[Big Muddy]

Kinda surprised Killorn isn’t gone for mid round picks yet

I'm not. In this economic climate, I'd guess a late pick could be about as good as it gets.

 

[McJedi]

Posters like Mcjedi and others are and have been incredibly salty and jealous of Tampa's success for a long time. It's pretty common, fan of team that hasnt won anything in years(if ever) making wild claims year after year that they "just know" what's going to happen with Tampa and have been wrong every time the past 6 years. Brisebois has made it very clear that keeping the 3 rfas are the main thing, so he will eventually make the moves needed to keep them. Moving picks/retention to trade Johnson, trading Killorn remains the most likely option(probably trading one of Coburn or Paquette as well). If Stamkos isnt as ready or healthy as planned, him going on LTIR is also an option,though a less likely one. Very unlikely any of the rfas are leaving as OS are extremely unlikely and the guys aren't interested in leaving, but this will be a drawn out process while JBB patiently attempts to work the different deals.

You’re pretty cocky for a team that hasn’t had a good start to their offseason.

no one here was sure of the value of the Tampa players heading into the draft and UFA.

I assumed Killorn had positive value and would be traded for a 2020 draft pick and a decent one at that. I was wrong. His value is probably negative and it will cost Tampa an asset to move him.

I assumed Johnson was a negative value asset and that certainly turned out to be true with the waiver failure.

So now what? No one knows. Tampa can hope their RFAs sign one year LaBanc deals and maybe they do? Maybe they have no choice. It’s possible. Then you just run it back.

more likely, they’ll pay a cost of something like Foote and their 2021 1st round pick to move Johnson off the roster. Expensive, but a fix.

I won’t even guess what it costs to move Killorn. I have no idea. I assume less than Johnson. Does 2 2nds do it? Less? More? I don’t know.

Tampa can probably get those two off their books at the cost of high picks and their top prospect.

Does Groude have any value? Probably not. Can he be waived and claimed? Very unlikely. Would Tampa trade Palat? Would he waive? I don’t know.

it’s hard to guess. This salary cap climate is as confusing and difficult as any we’ve seen. Dumping your players into another teams cap has never been this expensive or difficult before.

Tampa hasn’t figured anything out. Their options to trade guys off their roster look awful. But do their RFAs have any leverage? I don’t know. How willing are the RFAs to go after money from a new franchise.

it wouldn’t shock me if they take one year deals. Something like 30% of the money will never be paid on players 2020-21 deals... and that is before taxes. So striving for a big dollar deal this year means a lot of it is never paid.

I see both sides of an unresolved coin.

 

[Rabid Ranger]

I've lived entire life in US. If my family wasn't here I'd be moving to Canada - when the borders open - as soon as possible.

Canada is like a dreamland in comparison to US.

Please keep us updated.

 

[SensFactor]

Killorn would be a great pickup for the Sens. However, we need a vet centre more than a winger. Tyler Johnson is going to be hard to move with that contract. So my guess is they will move Killorn & Cirelli and roll the dice and sign Sergachev. He's an important piece of their blueline they cannot lose.

 

[Eggtimer]

As much as I want Sergachev , he is probably the last player of them all that they would be willing to lose , so I cannot see it happening . They would probably rather take a bath on giving up assets to move other players than lose Sergachev.
Anyways , this is frustrating as a fan waiting to see what happens .
Hopefully something happens soon .
What are the possible hold ups? Potential arbitration hearings and other teams finalizing their signings before they know exactly where they stand before they can evaluate what , if anything , their options and needs are ?
Is Tampa and other cap strapped teams waiting it out until hopefully their RFA’s demands lower or ???
I don’t get it . Maybe Tampa hopes everyone will just forget about their cap issues and nobody notices and they can start the season as is .......
Hurry up and do something already lol.

 

[GoBoltz56]

I've lived entire life in US. If my family wasn't here I'd be moving to Canada - when the borders open - as soon as possible.

Canada is like a dreamland in comparison to US.

Don't forget your tuque and mittens, eh?

 

[Eggtimer]

The frustrating part of all this is Tampa fans (Some , not all) thinking that somehow , someway , everything is going to just fall into place and another team will gladly come along and take their crap.
We have already seen with TJ that it is not going to be as easy as people think .
Some people saying “ oh , we JUST need player X and player Y to happily waive their NMC’s , then a bottom feeder team with cap room would be more than thrilled to take our overpaid , aging player with term. And all our RFA will be happy to sign way below market value bridge contracts for the benefit of the team .
As fans that do not cheer for the Lightning , of course it is easy to want a team that just won the cup lose as many assets as possible.
It’s frustrating as well that Tampa thinks that it will be as easy to move cap. They made it known earlier that they would move TJ with a second round pick..... ya not going to happen . Try again.Waiver wire for free? Ya , no thank you.

 

[DownIsTheNewUp]

Every offseason for the last 4-5 years people have been telling us we are in cap hell and going to have to blow it up. I still remember the triplets line and debates about which of Johnson, Kucherov, or Palat we'd have to trade because "they don't have the cap space for all three". Since then Kucherov has become a superstar and we've added guys like Point, Vasilevskiy, and McDonagh, and somehow they all still fit. Every year this team has not only kept it's core together, they have managed to improve the team each time. Now I don't anticipate an improvement this offseason, but guess what, we don't need to improve this year!

I anticipate after this offseason we'll have to dust off that old Mark Twain quote again:
"The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated"

 

[Djp]

Do you have a link for this? I'd like to read it because its a subject of interest to me as a dual citizen.

I did a search and found this stating the opposite:

Coronavirus has more Americans seeking Canadian residence | wusa9.com

But, I'd prefer additional info (i.e., something more comprehensive) on this subject versus just this one article. The idea of the "rate" doesn't surprise me, but I wondered if the numbers are decreasing on one side (Canada to the U.S.) and increasing on the other side (U.S. to Canada).

Again, just wanting more info versus coming into this subject with a preconceived point of view.

As a Canadian citizen you can freely go to Canada now and cross the border.

There was a rush to Canada post trump election.

Based on my understanding, and I could be wrong. I grew up in buffalo so we’d see many Canadians come to shop because retail items were cheaper by 30% or more and that’s not factoring in exchange rate. I believe taxes are higher but healthcare costs are much cheaper, I believe real estate costs more as in absolute equivalent costs and percent of pay.

In the US when buying a home or renting you look at affordability as 28% if gross income per month or buying a home is about 3 times family annual income at the time of purchase.

Agreed, as Players maximize their earnings.

Players have a short window in their 20's and early 30's to make their money. So, they can always retire in their 30's to raise their children in Canada if they wanted to.

But, we've seen plenty of second generation players now who represent the USA despite having Canadian fathers. That is not surprising since their fathers likely married someone from the USA where they played and likely retired in the last or one of their last stops in the NHL.

I don’t know what Canadian laws are on investment taxes. In the US I believe they are around 15% which is a player plans right they could build u a nest egg of around $5M and live the rest of their life drawing 5% per year.

Where I grew up is a popular place of former hockey players near Buffalo because real estate is very cheap giving equivalent housing size, education system very good, you have a good variety of food you can get from stores and farms because you can grow a good variety innthe climate, and they can be close to family in southern Ontario.

Players single in their 20s find their wives where they play, thus you get the dual citizenship thing. It’s usually stop 1 in the career if they play there till a UFA.US team wasn’t as deep so it’s eadier to make the international events by using us citizenship. The Foligno brothers were both born in buffalo when their dad played for the Sabres. The boys chose different countries to play for.

Now with salaries in sports much higher than in the 80s players can effectively retire after their career because of their income. The regular players in the 70s and %80s made still a very good income but it wasn’t the same multiplier above the avg household income like it us today so the players still had to have some career after playing.

If you think about it...if you didn’t have to worry about a house payment because it was already purchased. How much do you think you need to live on? A family of 4 can on $100K that is 5% of $2M

 

[Taluss]

Hey guys! Take a shot every time you see the word "offer sheet" in this thread. You'll be good and drunk by the time you finish the thread!

Drunk? Probably dead

 

[Qwijibo]

Stammer probably retires, so that will free up some space.

Let me get this straight. He’ll retire and walk away from roughly $32m that’s owed to him? Wanna explain your logic to me?

 

[CupsOverCash]

Every offseason for the last 4-5 years people have been telling us we are in cap hell and going to have to blow it up. I still remember the triplets line and debates about which of Johnson, Kucherov, or Palat we'd have to trade because "they don't have the cap space for all three". Since then Kucherov has become a superstar and we've added guys like Point, Vasilevskiy, and McDonagh, and somehow they all still fit. Every year this team has not only kept it's core together, they have managed to improve the team each time. Now I don't anticipate an improvement this offseason, but guess what, we don't need to improve this year!

I anticipate after this offseason we'll have to dust off that old Mark Twain quote again:
"The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated"

It's happened every offseason and I guess one day they will be right. It won't be this offseason because we are still going to be a good team next year and next. Also as far as this offseason, would it really surprise people if we found a way again? Like the post says above every year we get the doubt in the teams ability to keep the team together, would anyone really be surprised if they were again able to keep who they want after being wrong so many times?

 

[jrs]

There’s some really cool shit in Canada we can’t show the Americans. Sorry buds.

 

[JTBF81]

You’re pretty cocky for a team that hasn’t had a good start to their offseason.

no one here was sure of the value of the Tampa players heading into the draft and UFA.

I assumed Killorn had positive value and would be traded for a 2020 draft pick and a decent one at that. I was wrong. His value is probably negative and it will cost Tampa an asset to move him.

I assumed Johnson was a negative value asset and that certainly turned out to be true with the waiver failure.

So now what? No one knows. Tampa can hope their RFAs sign one year LaBanc deals and maybe they do? Maybe they have no choice. It’s possible. Then you just run it back.

more likely, they’ll pay a cost of something like Foote and their 2021 1st round pick to move Johnson off the roster. Expensive, but a fix.

I won’t even guess what it costs to move Killorn. I have no idea. I assume less than Johnson. Does 2 2nds do it? Less? More? I don’t know.

Tampa can probably get those two off their books at the cost of high picks and their top prospect.

Does Groude have any value? Probably not. Can he be waived and claimed? Very unlikely. Would Tampa trade Palat? Would he waive? I don’t know.

it’s hard to guess. This salary cap climate is as confusing and difficult as any we’ve seen. Dumping your players into another teams cap has never been this expensive or difficult before.

Tampa hasn’t figured anything out. Their options to trade guys off their roster look awful. But do their RFAs have any leverage? I don’t know. How willing are the RFAs to go after money from a new franchise.

it wouldn’t shock me if they take one year deals. Something like 30% of the money will never be paid on players 2020-21 deals... and that is before taxes. So striving for a big dollar deal this year means a lot of it is never paid.

I see both sides of an unresolved coin.

Lol, you calling anyone cocky after all the shit you talked is the best laugh of the day. I believe you said it was "fantasyland" that any Tampa player would waive their ntc, oops wrong, but not surprising. Once again you just presume to know what Tampa's management is thinking and the value of their players. That's worked out well for you as well thus far... Last I checked, Tampa won the Cup while your team failed again in the 2nd round, so while most Tampa fans certainly haven't been overly cocky, our team actually won something.

Tampa won't be moving Foote to move Johnson, and the fact that you even think he's on the table shows your pitiful lack of any real knowledge of Tampa. Killorn to the best of anyone's knowledge hasn't even been mentioned for a trade, and it seems Brisebois may want to keep him. Only because of the virus and the flat cap does even Johnson have negative value, as Killorn, if traded, will likely return at least a mid round pick, not having to attach 2 2nds to him(2nd best laugh of the day though). Gourde isn't being asked to waive and neither is Palat. Johnson has already waived for 8 teams and has told the team if there's another with interest outside of them to approach him and see if there's something there.

If basic frameworks are in place with the rfas, it's very possible moving Johnson, Paquette and Coburn is enough, or just Johnson and Killorn. Point is, people like yourself have spouted the same bullshit about Tampa can't do this, won't be able to keep these guys, this guy will get x dollars, offer sheets etc. for the past 5 or 6 years. You've been wrong EVERY SINGLE TIME, so most Tampa fans are going to tell you over and over how laughable you sound when fans of other teams presume to know the Lightning better than the fans that know the team and follow them daily. Tampa fans know there will be a few depth pieces lost, but none of the key core or rising young players are very likely to leave. Maybe because of a global pandemic and a flat cap you'll finally be right once about Tampa not being able to keep guys! I'm sure it'll be the highlight of your time on here.

 

[McJedi]

Lol, you calling anyone cocky after all the shit you talked is the best laugh of the day. I believe you said it was "fantasyland" that any Tampa player would waive their ntc, oops wrong, but not surprising. Once again you just presume to know what Tampa's management is thinking and the value of their players. That's worked out well for you as well thus far... Last I checked, Tampa won the Cup while your team failed again in the 2nd round, so while most Tampa fans certainly haven't been overly cocky, our team actually won something.

Tampa won't be moving Foote to move Johnson, and the fact that you even think he's on the table shows your pitiful lack of any real knowledge of Tampa. Killorn to the best of anyone's knowledge hasn't even been mentioned for a trade, and it seems Brisebois may want to keep him. Only because of the virus and the flat cap does even Johnson have negative value, as Killorn, if traded, will likely return at least a mid round pick, not having to attach 2 2nds to him(2nd best laugh of the day though). Gourde isn't being asked to waive and neither is Palat. Johnson has already waived for 8 teams and has told the team if there's another with interest outside of them to approach him and see if there's something there.

If basic frameworks are in place with the rfas, it's very possible moving Johnson, Paquette and Coburn is enough, or just Johnson and Killorn. Point is, people like yourself have spouted the same bullshit about Tampa can't do this, won't be able to keep these guys, this guy will get x dollars, offer sheets etc. for the past 5 or 6 years. You've been wrong EVERY SINGLE TIME, so most Tampa fans are going to tell you over and over how laughable you sound when fans of other teams presume to know the Lightning better than the fans that know the team and follow them daily. Tampa fans know there will be a few depth pieces lost, but none of the key core or rising young players are very likely to leave. Maybe because of a global pandemic and a flat cap you'll finally be right once about Tampa not being able to keep guys! I'm sure it'll be the highlight of your time on here.

we’ll see. It’s not like Tampa has figured their way out of this yet. Johnson clearly has negative value. It’s going to cost something significant to move him if he’s still willing to waive. The waivers ordeal was a bad look for Tampa and it also failed. That cost JBB a lot of leverage.

You have no idea if Killorn has value. None of us do. I’d be surprised if anyone throws JBB any bones. There are still plenty of good UFAs out there for nothing signing better contracts than Killorns. Less AAV and/or less term with less restrictive movement clauses in many cases.

if Cirelli or Serge won’t sign a LaBanc, Tampa remains short of cap space to sign them. And as we’ve seen, cap space is limited and expensive to acquire. No one is throwing JBB a life raft. As that one TSN guy said, they are throwing him anchors.

you guys told us Tampa gets out of these messes. They haven’t yet. And they got very aggressive in waiving Johnson with no takers. That certainly wasn’t a win for JBB. Stamkos name out there. Let’s just agree that this remains unresolved. And it’s not exactly lining up as you or I had predicted.

Tampa won the cup. That’s a well deserved victory lap. I was rooting hard for them to beat Dallas. But taking an off season victory lap today? That’s dubious. Based on what that’s happened so far? Lost an RFA, didn’t trade anyone, didn’t add any 2020 draft picks, lost some UFAs, lost leverage in the T Johnson saga, had to waive him in a startling development, that didn’t work, got a few bottom of roster guys to resign. It’s not exactly what JBB hoped to have achieved by this point.