Speculation: What moves are Tampa going to make?

[Eggtimer]

We are protecting all 4 and protecting Point, Kucherov, Stamkos, and Cirelli. Not a difficult choice

Thats the core and best group of players by far IMO.
Palat - positive value.
Gourde - negative value given term , cap hit , age and production. Not grossly negative but I cannot see anyone giving any assets for him with zero retention .
Killorn - ?? Tough call . I would guess would be picked up on waivers ???
TJ - Its going to hurt to move him at full cost.

Not sure if Tampa would put all of them on waivers. Optics wouldn't be the greatest if you go out and waive 4 of your players ( If Palat does not waive NTC or NMC he has)

 

[Kranix]

What's Sergachev supposed to get?

 

[DFC]

Palat has two years on that deal and he’s the best player. That’s a contact I’m still certain has positive value. I’m also certain T Johnson’s contract is deeply negative.

I think Groude would clear waivers if waived so his is probably negative value.

killorn? I have no froggen idea.

Agreed on Palat. He was a big reason why Point and Kucherov were so effective in these playoffs. I see no way we move him. I'd rather lose Cirelli.

Agreed on Johnson too. I've thought from the beginning we're unlikely to get him off the roster.

I think someone will eventually bite on Killorn. 26 goals in 70 games is going to be too tempting at some point. Even if he goes back to 17ish goals, 40ish points, his two-way game is valuable. It's not like anybody wants to lose him.

Gourde is the tricky one to me. He had a miserable regular season, but was an impact player in the playoffs, easily worth his contract. I don't think his value is negative. I also doubt it ever comes to trading him, because I don't see him waiving.

 

[Eggtimer]

What's Sergachev supposed to get?

Interested in that as well. What he SHOULD get and what he will get are two different things. Maybe it gets to the point where he takes a sweetheart deal for one year to make things work ? Not sure how all the RFA / Arbitration rights etc works with him so I am not sure if a one year deal is what it would be or ??
Under normal circumstances , what is fair market price? McAvoy a good comparison?

 

[HBK27]

We are protecting all 4 and protecting Point, Kucherov, Stamkos, and Cirelli. Not a difficult choice

Fair enough. Would have to think that Barre-Boulet gets moved at some point then before the expansion draft - either after next season or as part of a sweetener to offload a vet versus losing him for nothing.

 

[ChicksDigTheTrap]

Detroit, Ottawa and NJD are the three teams that people think are the landing spot for bad contracts.

All three are above the cap floor now.

Given the current economic climate and shaky revenue picture, would it be hard for a GM to sell an owner on the idea of taking on a bad contract from another team without taking on some kind of worthwhile & noteworthy incentive?

It looks like the Devils will open the season in the low to mid $70's with respect to the cap. It depends on what Bratt/Blackwood get on their RFA deals. I doubt they will take on any bad contracts.

 

[McJedi]

Agreed on Palat. He was a big reason why Point and Kucherov were so effective in these playoffs. I see no way we move him. I'd rather lose Cirelli.

Agreed on Johnson too. I've thought from the beginning we're unlikely to get him off the roster.

I think someone will eventually bite on Killorn. 26 goals in 70 games is going to be too tempting at some point. Even if he goes back to 17ish goals, 40ish points, his two-way game is valuable. It's not like anybody wants to lose him.

Gourde is the tricky one to me. He had a miserable regular season, but was an impact player in the playoffs, easily worth his contract. I don't think his value is negative. I also doubt it ever comes to trading him, because I don't see him waiving.

I think Killorn eventually gets traded. Wonder if JBB doesn’t regret moving him sooner. He miscalculated trying to move Johnson first. Should have bitten the bullet and tried to trade Killorn before the draft for anything. Even a 4th rounder. Given the challenges of moving more difficult contracts like T Johnson, teams will probably try to extract any value they can to help Tampa clear some space, even for a good player like Killorn with 3 years of term left on a sub 4.5mm aav. On its face, still a good post C19 deal, unlike T Johnson’s.

I still think Killorn is movable. I just don’t know if teams hold the line on Tampa adding a sweetener “just cause” they think they can.

but I think Killorn is the next/first Tampa domino to topple this off-season. I always thought that so I was vexed JBB tried to make it Johnson because that cost him leverage.

 

[Krewe]

So far, Cirelli is a 40 point center. I think he's great but don't make him into something that he isn't. There's no guarantee that he breaks 50 points in his career. Some have compared him to Pageau. You are offering two potential top 6 forwards and a third asset for a player that Tampa is in a tough spot to re-sign.

4th in Selke voting (which is extremely impressive for an RFA to do given the reputation aspect of that award), zero PP time, lots of PK time, and still scores at a 20g/53pt pace almost entirely at 5v5. And plays 2C on the best team in the league (a spot he took from Stamkos). But yes, he isn't worth prospects that MAYBE have top 6 potential.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

Interested in that as well. What he SHOULD get and what he will get are two different things. Maybe it gets to the point where he takes a sweetheart deal for one year to make things work ? Not sure how all the RFA / Arbitration rights etc works with him so I am not sure if a one year deal is what it would be or ??
Under normal circumstances , what is fair market price? McAvoy a good comparison?

McAvoy, Werenski if he signs for 3 years, but those were signed under quite different conditions. I really wonder if JBB doesn't clear the cap space he can and gives them shorter, lesser deals that take them to arbitration eligible years as a concession for not being able to deliver on pre-Covid projections.

 

[Eggtimer]

It looks like the Devils will open the season in the low to mid $70's with respect to the cap. It depends on what Bratt/Blackwood get on their RFA deals. I doubt they will take on any bad contracts.

I agree , I cannot see them take any on , especially a forward. Only way is if a stud D is attached somehow.
Only way they take on cap is if its a one year hit , but if that was the case , other teams would be willing to do the same and the assets attached would not be that great.
If anything , Devils make a hockey trade or awuire another player like they did with Murray and Johnsson .

 

[Krewe]

Man I just read this whole thread. There are a few posters in here who are worryingly invested in Tampa getting screwed over by the cap. Like it's kinda hilarious. What's even better is most of them cheer for non-playoff teams and bubble teams

 

[Eggtimer]

Man I just read this whole thread. There are a few posters in here who are worryingly invested in Tampa getting screwed over by the cap. Like it's kinda hilarious. What's even better is most of them cheer for non-playoff teams and bubble teams

Yup , its human nature to want the mighty to fall.
I see nothing wrong with wanting the best team in the league to not be anymore when it is not the team you cheer for.
And the reason being that the people wanting the Bolts to lose an asset is because they are the teams that have the ability ( for the most part) to benefit as they have the means to snag a player hopefully .
It shouldn't be a surprise or seen as there is anything wrong with this.
Its people wanting to see their team get better at the expense f the team thats on top of the hill at the moment.

 

[Guttersniped]

My prediction is still that Detroit and Tampa will make a big trade that gets Tampa out of their cap crunch and stocks Detroit up to no longer be a league embarrassment and the rest of the league will cry foul about it.

Something like Johnson (agreeing to waive), Killorn (agreeing to waive or not on his list), a 1st and a 2nd, maybe sending Raddish or Foote as well, and Detroit sends a player or two at 50% retained back. Tampa gets the RFAs signed, Detroit to certainly turn their franchise around faster.

The rest of the league will complain even though they could have got Tampa out of their situation for a premium as well but decided not to.

Detroit is going to take on that 9.45m cap hit for 3 years and 5m for a 4th year because they have an estimated 13.6m this off-season? Even though the cap is frozen next year and the growth in the next two years could be negligible?

One team is not taking on two of these contracts, no one is sacrificing that much of their cap to solve Tampa’s problems. Everyone will have their own RFA to take care of in future and need to preserve cap flexibility.

 

[StreetHawk]

Detroit is going to take on that 9.45m cap hit for 3 years and 5m for a 4th year because they have an estimated 13.6m this off-season? Even though the cap is frozen next year and the growth in the next two years could be negligible?

One team is not taking on two of these contracts, no one is sacrificing that much of their cap to solve Tampa’s problems. Everyone will have their own RFA to take care of in future and need to preserve cap flexibility.

Larkin is under contract for 3 more seasons so adding someone under contract for a 4th probably not a wise move. And Mantha and Bertuzzi are ufa in 2 seasons if the opt to get there ASAP.

Not a wise move to take on contract for that long into the future. Staal makes sense. At most Palat would make sense as it’s 2 years. Going longer than that doesn’t. Never know what other opportunities can present themselves down the line.

 

[Guttersniped]

I think Killorn eventually gets traded. Wonder if JBB doesn’t regret moving him sooner. He miscalculated trying to move Johnson first. Should have bitten the bullet and tried to trade Killorn before the draft for anything. Even a 4th rounder. Given the challenges of moving more difficult contracts like T Johnson, teams will probably try to extract any value they can to help Tampa clear some space, even for a good player like Killorn with 3 years of term left on a sub 4.5mm aav. On its face, still a good post C19 deal, unlike T Johnson’s.

I still think Killorn is movable. I just don’t know if teams hold the line on Tampa adding a sweetener “just cause” they think they can.

but I think Killorn is the next/first Tampa domino to topple this off-season. I always thought that so I was vexed JBB tried to make it Johnson because that cost him leverage.

Killorn’s NTC didn’t become a modified NTC with 16 team list until the Friday after the draft when Free Agency started. I agree it’s odd if BriseBois never shopped him since Johnson isn’t enough anyway but who knows what his master plan is here.

 

[r0bert8841]

My guess is Tampa will only be able to get rid of Johnson and will have to lose at least one of their RFAs. I don’t think they have enough sweeteners and potential locations to move two of their NTC forwards.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

Detroit is going to take on that 9.45m cap hit for 3 years and 5m for a 4th year because they have an estimated 13.6m this off-season? Even though the cap is frozen next year and the growth in the next two years could be negligible?

One team is not taking on two of these contracts, no one is sacrificing that much of their cap to solve Tampa’s problems. Everyone will have their own RFA to take care of in future and need to preserve cap flexibility.

They have 24 million dollars in UFA contracts coming off the cap in 2021 (assuming there's a season) if they do nothing.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

What is Killorn worth and what’s Tampa’s needs.

 

[2020 Cup Champions]

What is Killorn worth and what’s Tampa’s needs.

1) Good question
2) Cap space

 

[Henkka]

Killorn for Adam Erne with 50% retention (498k caphit).

Should be usable depth guy for that price. Cheaper than any other NHLr.

 

[Master P]

Killorn for Adam Erne with 50% retention (498k caphit).

Should be usable depth guy for that price. Cheaper than any other NHLr.

The hippo returns

 

[McJedi]

Killorn’s NTC didn’t become a modified NTC with 16 team list until the Friday after the draft when Free Agency started. I agree it’s odd if BriseBois never shopped him since Johnson isn’t enough anyway but who knows what his master plan is here.

Got it. Thanks for letting me know. Makes more sense now too. Still think Killorn is the first domino to fall off Tampa’s roster. I have zero idea if he carries positive or negative value. Zero idea. None of us do in this bizarre climate.

 

[HBK27]

Man I just read this whole thread. There are a few posters in here who are worryingly invested in Tampa getting screwed over by the cap. Like it's kinda hilarious. What's even better is most of them cheer for non-playoff teams and bubble teams

Or maybe, just maybe, some people think it's an interesting situation to watch unfold during the slowest part of the offseason?

COVID threw the league a curveball in a flat cap and financial hit that could make teams spend even less than most would've thought just 7 months ago. It's certainly something Tampa Bay wasn't anticipating heading into this offseason, which they already knew was going to be a bit painful. But fortunately for them, they loaded up for a Cup run before having to pay Vasilevsky an additional $6M per season and before 3 key players came off their ELC's.

I don't think we've seen a situation like this where a team was projected to be so high over the cap, so few teams had flexibility to take on contracts and a team was hamstrung by NTC's on the players they'd most like to move. How they get under the cap is the most interesting story of the offseason and discussing it doesn't mean you're worringly invested in seeing them get screwed over.

 

[Fogelhund]

Have another round of shots. This one, is on me.

 

[8999]

Killorn’s NTC didn’t become a modified NTC with 16 team list until the Friday after the draft when Free Agency started. I agree it’s odd if BriseBois never shopped him since Johnson isn’t enough anyway but who knows what his master plan is here.

Yes, exactly. Whatever JBB's plan was at the start of the off-season, it has to be different now.

To go back a step further from your point, it seems like a distant memory but Johnson didn't start out as a clearly negative asset. The world shifted on JBB swiftly.

10/6 - It's reported that TBL is trying to receive a 1st for Johnson or Killorn; Johnson has provided a list of 5 teams that he would waive his NTC for; Killorn technically still has a full NTC for a few more days; Brisebois tells the league there are only 4 untouchables on the team

10/9 - Tyler Johnson placed on waivers; Killorn's full NTC becomes 16-team M-NTC

10/10 - Tyler Johnson clears waivers and it is reported teams want a sweetener to take him

10/14 - Tyler Johnson reportedly expands his list to 8 teams; it's rumored that Stamkos was asked about waiving his NMC (although this was thought to have happened weeks earlier)

10/26 - HFBoards wonders why JBB doesn't just move this guy and that guy and Bob's your uncle

My guess is that the choice between, say, Johnson and Cirelli was very clear when JBB thought Johnson would not require a sweetener. But if he gives up on keeping all RFAs, then the choice becomes less straightforward if it's like:

Keep Johnson + keep sweeteners that would be required to move TJ + get assets for Cirelli
vs.
Keep Cirelli