Speculation: What moves are Tampa going to make?

[Lshap]

Please avoid politics.

 

[HockeyWooot]

Yes, but there's always quality vets available through free agency each year. And, potentially they can be signed at lower $s (see #443 & TSN article). Also, many free agents are accepting one year deals and betting on themselves and a better financial picture in a couple of years versus trading for a player with many years of term left on his contract.

You are correct about the concept, but the question is what value do those players have in the current market? Isn't hard to determine that the value is far less than the average year.

Agree the value will take a hit compared to a normal year, but I disagree on the availability of these quality vets in FA. There are but there are usually just a small handful and you have to overpay them to sign them ( I should know my Nucks are loaded with overpaid bottom 6ers).

Throwing a name out there, would Buffalo be a fit? They need to get better, in a hurry.

 

[Kranix]

I know some people love FL and some hate it, but I can tell you for a fact that MANY former lightning players end up retiring and staying in Tampa. Even guys who didn't spend much time in the organization. I have played mens league on teams with Sergei Gusev who still has a place here, Chris Dingman, Rudy Poeschek. Larry Robinson had a house on my street in the Tampa area when I was a kid and he never had anything to do with the Lightning.

Did you get Larry out for some ball hockey

 

[Big Muddy]

Agree the value will take a hit compared to a normal year, but I disagree on the availability of these quality vets in FA. There are but there are usually just a small handful and you have to overpay them to sign them ( I should know my Nucks are loaded with overpaid bottom 6ers).

Throwing a name out there, would Buffalo be a fit? They need to get better, in a hurry.

Cash will be the king this year. In general, owners will be telling their GMs to be frugal given the financial uncertainty. If you click on the TSN article (below), they talk about the impact of the current financial squeeze on free agent forward signings this year.

"On the other side of the table, front offices are starting to feel serious financial squeeze. The cash-poor teams that were already hurting before the stoppage of the 2020-21 regular season have been predictably quiet in the market. But so too have some of the bigger-market teams, those that tend to spend aggressively to the salary cap on an annual basis.

But at aggregate, it becomes clear that players have been materially impacted by the economic uncertainty, and the (free agent) class has signed comparatively cheap deals:

The forward class, year over year, saw a 50 per cent reduction in the total value of their contracts."


Yost: NHL players feeling financial pinch in free agency - TSN.ca

 

[GoBoltz56]

Did you get Larry out for some ball hockey

I totally knocked on the door with my rollerblades on and I think it was his daughter who answered..I said "Is your dad Larry Robinson". She said "um....yes", and that was the extent of the convo,

 

[Lightning1995]

Just read this thread. Many interesting perspectives. I’m not sure what’s going to happen. Personally I’d like JBB to do whatever it takes to keep the three RFAs in terms of futures. I’d prefer not to deal Foote, since he SHOULD be able to fill a hole on the right side.

The Lightning built much of its core outside the 1st round. The three RFAs are key to extending the window.

I’d like to believe Killorn is a net positive contract and would fit well in most anyone’s top 6. Yet I’m not certain the Lightning are willing to let him go.

It’s gonna be expensive, but TJ has to be moved. Move TJ, Coburn and Paquette. The RFAs take short term deals.

 

[Mr Positive]

Just read this thread. Many interesting perspectives. I’m not sure what’s going to happen. Personally I’d like JBB to do whatever it takes to keep the three RFAs in terms of futures. I’d prefer not to deal Foote, since he SHOULD be able to fill a hole on the right side.

The Lightning built much of its core outside the 1st round. The three RFAs are key to extending the window.

I’d like to believe Killorn is a net positive contract and would fit well in most anyone’s top 6. Yet I’m not certain the Lightning are willing to let him go.

It’s gonna be expensive, but TJ has to be moved. Move TJ, Coburn and Paquette. The RFAs take short term deals.

Killorn has positive value, but maybe not considering his age. Johnson has pretty bad negative value. Both have NTCs that can block just about any move. It's basically a full NTC as long as they pick teams without cap space

Coburn has a full NTC. He'd have to want to go.

 

[Lightning1995]

Killorn has positive value, but maybe not considering his age. Johnson has pretty bad negative value. Both have NTCs that can block just about any move. It's basically a full NTC as long as they pick teams without cap space

Coburn has a full NTC. He'd have to want to go.

I know how the contracts are structured. Lightning will need cooperation from players, that’s well established.

 

[Mr Positive]

I know how the contracts are structured. Lightning will need cooperation from players, that’s well established.

Okay fair enough. But why do they do it? They aren't going to a top destination. They are going to the teams with cap space. At their ages what circumstances would they accept?

Edit. The obvious comparable is Vegas. Sure they would have liked to have cooperation from Fleury and Reilly instead, but in the end they traded Stastny and Schmidt

 

[Lightning1995]

Okay fair enough. But why do they do it? They aren't going to a top destination. They are going to the teams with cap space. At their ages what circumstances would they accept?

Edit. The obvious comparable is Vegas. Sure they would have liked to have cooperation from Fleury and Reilly instead, but in the end they traded Stastny and Schmidt

I guess the Lightning won’t play in 2021 due to failing cap compliance. Maybe the franchise will be disbanded.

 

[Mr Positive]

I guess the Lightning won’t play in 2021 due to failing cap compliance. Maybe the franchise will be disbanded.

Or just make a move they'd rather not, like so many other teams have had to

 

[StreetHawk]

Okay fair enough. But why do they do it? They aren't going to a top destination. They are going to the teams with cap space. At their ages what circumstances would they accept?

Edit. The obvious comparable is Vegas. Sure they would have liked to have cooperation from Fleury and Reilly instead, but in the end they traded Stastny and Schmidt

Wonder if there is going to come a point where the RFA player or their agent start pressing for a deal or even go out and seek an OS as they want their client signed. If the Jan 1 is the target for opening day and we are already half way through November, training camps have to open up in early December. I don't see the normal 8 pre-season games that teams have been playing over the past years. Might be down to like 3-4 games only. And with the Xmas time, teams are going to be taking and letting their players spend time with their household. Fewer pre-season games would mean more practice and more scrimmages or even intra-squad games within the team.

Getting down to around 3 weeks left for training camp opening for a Jan 1 start of the NHL season.

Guys won't show up to camp or step onto the ice without a contract.

 

[NatoGhost]

Wonder if there is going to come a point where the RFA player or their agent start pressing for a deal or even go out and seek an OS as they want their client signed. If the Jan 1 is the target for opening day and we are already half way through November, training camps have to open up in early December. I don't see the normal 8 pre-season games that teams have been playing over the past years. Might be down to like 3-4 games only. And with the Xmas time, teams are going to be taking and letting their players spend time with their household. Fewer pre-season games would mean more practice and more scrimmages or even intra-squad games within the team.

Getting down to around 3 weeks left for training camp opening for a Jan 1 start of the NHL season.

Guys won't show up to camp or step onto the ice without a contract.

Don't think the players & agents stress too much until an actual return to play date has been officially announced. Once there is an official start date it becomes real and something will need to be done. Until then, nobody knows 100% there will be a season.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Just read this thread. Many interesting perspectives. I’m not sure what’s going to happen. Personally I’d like JBB to do whatever it takes to keep the three RFAs in terms of futures. I’d prefer not to deal Foote, since he SHOULD be able to fill a hole on the right side.

The Lightning built much of its core outside the 1st round. The three RFAs are key to extending the window.

I’d like to believe Killorn is a net positive contract and would fit well in most anyone’s top 6. Yet I’m not certain the Lightning are willing to let him go.

It’s gonna be expensive, but TJ has to be moved. Move TJ, Coburn and Paquette. The RFAs take short term deals.

I’m surprised that some of these teams that have to make moves haven’t just taken their medicine and made a move yet. Seems like a huge gamble waiting, as each day cap space dwindles and the financial picture for teams around the league becomes more bleak.

Something that hasn’t been mentioned much is that Tampa is one of those special teams where overall they are so talented and so deep that it creates an environment where the team is getting the most out of just about every player on the roster. I think a lot of gm’s around the league look at guys like Johnson, Gourde, Killorn and see guys who are on the down slope of their primes but have years left of being paid based on that level of play in a near perfect situation of being surrounded by high end talent and terrific depth. So gm’s are asking themselves if I tie myself to that contract can I expect the same level of performance without the same level of talent or depth around them and I’d imagine the answer most are coming up with is no and that could also be why we’re seeing this delay.


I see the situation as a used car sale. Brisebois is trying to sell a vehicle that’s older and has higher miles but was driven lightly and well maintained over the years while other GM’s are trying to pay the price of an older vehicle with miles that’s going to be driven hard by their teenager.

 

[wintersej]

I like the cold and enjoy winter. You can always add a layer, but you can't manage heat after a certain point.

I wouldn't live anywhere below Pennsylvania...gets too warm for my liking. I am not a representation of everyone and many people I've met are the exact opposite.

You can only take off so many layers before they put you in jail.

But, you never have to scrape off or shovel the heat.

Personally, I like how the seasons break up time and hobbies. It’s nice being cozy and watching Netflix in the winter with snow outside and you appreciate the nice weather more when it comes.

 

[deca guard]

im predicting tj plus a pick/prospect to a basement dweller . the dweller then retains 2.5 and trades tj to a contender for a pick

 

[StreetHawk]

im predicting tj plus a pick/prospect to a basement dweller . the dweller then retains 2.5 and trades tj to a contender for a pick

It pretty much has to work like a 3 way deal, similar to how LV got involved in the Brassard deal a couple of TDL ago.

TJ isn't waiving his NTC to go and play for a basement dweller. He would have a 10 team no trade list after this upcoming season, so he can still list the basement dwellers on it.

Only if the deal is setup as you have said would he even waive it to go there.

But, I think you are expecting too much from a basement dweller. Covid, has impacted finances and teams are not going to be paying half of the $17.75 million left on his contract. Talking almost $9 million in real cash. If $3.8 million for 1 year cost a 1st for Marleau, I don't want to guess what $9 million cash is going to cost to pick up the tab for TJ for a basement dweller's POV.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I think everyone is holding off till we know more about next season and when it will be. Also how much will the cap be over the next few years? Teams are waiting for more info to come out about next year before we see more moves imo.

 

[bernmeister]

No, they need to be cap compliant at the start of this season. Have you looked at their cap situation?

They have $2,895,834 of projected cap space with just 18 players signed. And, they have three RFAs to sign as follows: Cirelli, Cernak and Sergachev.

Tampa Bay Lightning - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

There may be a temporary loophole w/delay in signing guys, but longer this is put off the more under the gun mgmt will be if it is announced season start is around the corner.

At that late pt, trading partners will really have TB by the short hairs.

 

[PettersonHughes]

In any other year, the Lightning would be in an enviable position, but now they'd probably have to bundle pricier assets with picks/ youth just to move them out and get under the cap. Probably going to see more low-ball trades from other teams as they figure out which peripheral pieces to ship out without coming out too weakened.

Basically Kucherov, Point, Hedman and Vasilievskiy and then other well-developed guys should be generally available?

 

[Djp]

Just read this thread. Many interesting perspectives. I’m not sure what’s going to happen. Personally I’d like JBB to do whatever it takes to keep the three RFAs in terms of futures. I’d prefer not to deal Foote, since he SHOULD be able to fill a hole on the right side.

The Lightning built much of its core outside the 1st round. The three RFAs are key to extending the window.

I’d like to believe Killorn is a net positive contract and would fit well in most anyone’s top 6. Yet I’m not certain the Lightning are willing to let him go.

It’s gonna be expensive, but TJ has to be moved. Move TJ, Coburn and Paquette. The RFAs take short term deals.

TJ is pretty much immoveable. But he is willing to waive to go to Seattle. But TB will have to include stuff to move him.

this year they need 4 roster spots filled with resigning their RFAs and adding another Dman who could be internal promotion.

those 4 spots are likely costing $12M which means moving around $10M in salary net.

Wonder if there is going to come a point where the RFA player or their agent start pressing for a deal or even go out and seek an OS as they want their client signed. If the Jan 1 is the target for opening day and we are already half way through November, training camps have to open up in early December. I don't see the normal 8 pre-season games that teams have been playing over the past years. Might be down to like 3-4 games only. And with the Xmas time, teams are going to be taking and letting their players spend time with their household. Fewer pre-season games would mean more practice and more scrimmages or even intra-squad games within the team.

Getting down to around 3 weeks left for training camp opening for a Jan 1 start of the NHL season.

Guys won't show up to camp or step onto the ice without a contract.

offersheets are a two way street where new team needs to be able to fit them in. Only about 6 teams could do this.

I’m surprised that some of these teams that have to make moves haven’t just taken their medicine and made a move yet. Seems like a huge gamble waiting, as each day cap space dwindles and the financial picture for teams around the league becomes more bleak.

Something that hasn’t been mentioned much is that Tampa is one of those special teams where overall they are so talented and so deep that it creates an environment where the team is getting the most out of just about every player on the roster. I think a lot of gm’s around the league look at guys like Johnson, Gourde, Killorn and see guys who are on the down slope of their primes but have years left of being paid based on that level of play in a near perfect situation of being surrounded by high end talent and terrific depth. So gm’s are asking themselves if I tie myself to that contract can I expect the same level of performance without the same level of talent or depth around them and I’d imagine the answer most are coming up with is no and that could also be why we’re seeing this delay.


I see the situation as a used car sale. Brisebois is trying to sell a vehicle that’s older and has higher miles but was driven lightly and well maintained over the years while other GM’s are trying to pay the price of an older vehicle with miles that’s going to be driven hard by their teenager.

you have about12 teams over the cap. It’s like dominoes thst will fall once some deals are made.

The first piece is selling high salary to teams with space and adding incentives like high prospects or 1st round picks. Term size the max will be 3yrs of contract left. Players like Johnson orGourde are going nowhere. With some teams this will open up them signing their own RFAs, a few others could see more trades made.

be ause teams are near cap trades are going to be near cap neutral which means multiplayer trades possibly.

I think everyone is holding off till we know more about next season and when it will be. Also how much will the cap be over the next few years? Teams are waiting for more info to come out about next year before we see more moves imo.

I don’t think that is the driver. They know what the cap will be fore 20-21 and 21-22.

next year the ED will be a partial CBO where teams unload salary on Seattle with sweeteners.

the clog right now are these unload deals teams like Tampa trading Killorn to Ottawa or Detroit. This coukd be more comp,ex wher Detroit/Ottawa don’t want Killorn but a team competing now,say colirado for sake or argument wants Killorn and takes him then. Killorn +2nd to DET/OTT, then DET/OTT sends Killorn with retain for young player/prospect s from colirado.

with other teams who after filling out their roster internally might have $2.5-$2Am in available space. So they might make cap neutral trades.

in an ideal Seattle plan they’d like to end up with

18 nhl roster players
4 players due to start bridges who could be sent to AHL
5 players who don’t start ELC till 22/23
5 players who start ELC in 21/22
5 players who are Europe/college eho rights go to June 2024
4-5 extra picks in 2021 draft
4-5 extra picks in 2022 draft
Some of the 28 nhl players could be deadline traded players.

 

[TBF1972]

Don't think the players & agents stress too much until an actual return to play date has been officially announced. Once there is an official start date it becomes real and something will need to be done. Until then, nobody knows 100% there will be a season.

i am not so sure about this. signing bonus have been paid. normal salary have already been paid out for players under contract, if i am informed correctly. not being signed means no payment for the rfa's, which becomes a concern for them obviously.

 

[TBF1972]

next year the ED will be a partial CBO where teams unload salary on Seattle with sweeteners.

with everybody banking on seattle to be the solution for their cap problems, i start wondering, if i should wager on seattle as the 2022 stanley cup champion. they should get some enticing trade offers, if they play their cards well.