Speculation: What moves are Tampa going to make?

[McJedi]

Yes, exactly. Whatever JBB's plan was at the start of the off-season, it has to be different now.

To go back a step further from your point, it seems like a distant memory but Johnson didn't start out as a clearly negative asset. The world shifted on JBB swiftly.

10/6 - It's reported that TBL is trying to receive a 1st for Johnson or Killorn; Johnson has provided a list of 5 teams that he would waive his NTC for; Killorn technically still has a full NTC for a few more days; Brisebois tells the league there are only 4 untouchables on the team

10/9 - Tyler Johnson placed on waivers; Killorn's full NTC becomes 16-team M-NTC

10/10 - Tyler Johnson clears waivers and it is reported teams want a sweetener to take him

10/14 - Tyler Johnson reportedly expands his list to 8 teams; it's rumored that Stamkos was asked about waiving his NMC (although this was thought to have happened weeks earlier)

10/26 - HFBoards wonders why JBB doesn't just move this guy and that guy and Bob's your uncle

My guess is that the choice between, say, Johnson and Cirelli was very clear when JBB thought Johnson would not require a sweetener. But if he gives up on keeping all RFAs, then the choice becomes less straightforward if it's like:

Keep Johnson + keep sweeteners that would be required to move TJ + get assets for Cirelli
vs.
Keep Cirelli

We don’t know the sweeteners required to get rid of TJ. But you have to think Tampa would quickly surrender a 2021 1st round pick to do so. And yet that deal hasn’t happened so now you assume it’s more. Is it 2 1sts? Is it possibly more than that?

None of us have any idea but no one seems interested in throwing JBB anything but an anchor.

 

[Crunchrulz]

Killorn for Adam Erne with 50% retention (498k caphit).

Should be usable depth guy for that price. Cheaper than any other NHLr.

Um no. Erne was a waste of a roster spot when he was here the first time. And that is from one of the folks who swore up and down he was going to be the best power forward the Lightning so badly needed. Wont play physical and can't fight his way out of a wet paper bag even when he has 3 inches and 20 pounds on the bag. On second thought, not only no but heck no.

 

[8999]

We don’t know the sweeteners required to get rid of TJ. But you have to think Tampa would quickly surrender a 2021 1st round pick to do so. And yet that deal hasn’t happened so now you assume it’s more. Is it 2 1sts? Is it possibly more than that?

None of us have any idea but no one seems interested in throwing JBB anything but an anchor.

Right. Maybe GMs are more averse to giving up a 1st to move a cap dump than we might expect? How often does it really happen? GM Dubas did with Marleau but the player was very uncooperative. Even this off-season, VGK basically gave away Schmidt instead of paying a 1st+ to move Fleury. NYR paid a 2nd to move 5.7m x 1yr of Marc Staal. Is there even a practical ceiling on the price for 5m x 4 if teams play hardball?

For non-TBL fans, what would you be happy with your GM accepting as a sweetener for TJ?

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

Dude... Sergachev went out and said he wants to play for the Lightning til he's 40 and is drinking the Lightning kool-aid harder than any RFA we've ever had. Said RFA's have always signed for what we told them to and never once have offer sheets been a problem for us. This is a problem because YOU want it to be. Someone will take Johnson. The biggest problem is what we pay to make that happen and chances are we're gonna lose unrelated picks and prospects because it'll likely be understood he goes to Seattle next year and we are paying it forward on the price of business.

Looks like Sergachev isn't the only one drinking the Tampa kool-aid.

 

[BB06]

Tampa is probably in the most vulnerable situation you could possibly be in regards to offer sheets and no one has done anything. Offersheet have got to be the biggest fake hype job in the league right now.

 

[HockeyWooot]

I suspect rebuilding teams with young skill but a dearth of quality vets would look into a Palat or a Killorn.

 

[Alan Wake]

Tampa is probably in the most vulnerable situation you could possibly be in regards to offer sheets and no one has done anything. Offersheet have got to be the biggest fake hype job in the league right now.

Meh. I'll worry once training camp comes and goes and no player in the entire league gets injured. Injuries can change matters for other teams.

 

[wintersej]

Tampa is probably in the most vulnerable situation you could possibly be in regards to offer sheets and no one has done anything. Offersheet have got to be the biggest fake hype job in the league right now.

We have no idea how many contracts have been offered to the Tampa kids. We have no idea how many of these offers are open.

 

[ccman68]

We can go over the cap so offersheets do nothing unless you are sending more than 1

 

[DFC]

I think Killorn eventually gets traded. Wonder if JBB doesn’t regret moving him sooner. He miscalculated trying to move Johnson first. Should have bitten the bullet and tried to trade Killorn before the draft for anything. Even a 4th rounder. Given the challenges of moving more difficult contracts like T Johnson, teams will probably try to extract any value they can to help Tampa clear some space, even for a good player like Killorn with 3 years of term left on a sub 4.5mm aav. On its face, still a good post C19 deal, unlike T Johnson’s.

I still think Killorn is movable. I just don’t know if teams hold the line on Tampa adding a sweetener “just cause” they think they can.

but I think Killorn is the next/first Tampa domino to topple this off-season. I always thought that so I was vexed JBB tried to make it Johnson because that cost him leverage.

Tough to say if JBB's trying to do it one at a time though. He might be working on both deals simultaneously, but was so desperate to move Johnson that the story broke. He probably just hasn't asked Killorn to waive yet, because I believe Killorn's list leaves roughly half the league available to work with.

 

[DarthProbert]

Watch Tampa have to buy out a perfectly cromulent player just to make cap space. Which means they need an arbitration case to open a buyout window.

 

[HBK27]

Tampa is probably in the most vulnerable situation you could possibly be in regards to offer sheets and no one has done anything. Offersheet have got to be the biggest fake hype job in the league right now.

Part of the problem is that some teams that have the cap space don't have their own picks that are required to make an offer sheet (for example. the Devils don't own their 2021 2nd round pick). The flat cap has also impacted teams that otherwise may have considered an offer sheet - at the very least, the flat cap reduced the ability of contending (i.e. more desirable) teams from having the cap space to make an offer or unload other contracts to clear space.

Mostly though, there is probably little incentive at this stage for any of the RFA's to accept an offer sheet. They probably would all prefer to stay in Tampa, especially after being in a bubble for months with their teammates and winning a Cup. That has to bring a team really close together, so I doubt they want to screw over their team/teammates by accepting an offer sheet at this point. Regardless of how this offseason turns out, Tampa is also going to be competitive for the foreseeable future, so who wouldn't want to stay in that situation?

That doesn't mean that there hasn't been an offer sheet made or that the RFA's haven't had any discussions with other teams. For now, they have time and are likely hoping for Tampa to get under the cap somehow while giving them a fair contract.

If we get closer to the start of next season and these guys are still unsigned and contract negotiations are not going great, then they may reconsider if an offer sheet comes their way.

 

[HBK27]

Tough to say if JBB's trying to do it one at a time though. He might be working on both deals simultaneously, but was so desperate to move Johnson that the story broke. He probably just hasn't asked Killorn to waive yet, because I believe Killorn's list leaves roughly half the league available to work with.

Killorn has a 16 team no-trade list, which leaves 14 teams he could be dealt to without having to waive. Of that list though, you would have to assume that very few teams would even consider adding Killorn due to lack to cap space. You have to assume that teams such as Vegas, Toronto, Washington, etc. that have little to no cap space make up a majority of the 14 "approved" teams, which brings the number down to just a handful that could actually take on his contract without making major moves.

 

[HBK27]

Watch Tampa have to buy out a perfectly cromulent player just to make cap space. Which means they need an arbitration case to open a buyout window.

No Tampa players have filed for arbitration, so there's no chance a 2nd buyout window opens up for them.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

Nothing will happen until the dates (start, end, trade deadline) are announced.
Then Brisbois will put Stamkos and his $8.5 million CAP hit on LTIR when the season starts and sign the three RFAs with the help of his CAP money.
Miraculously Stamkos will begin practicing with the team just before the trade deadline and will be in the lineup the day after the trade deadline when the CAP is no longer an issue.
No player is lost by Tampa and it smells just as bad as Marion Hossa's itchy equipment did in Chicago.

 

[wintersej]

We can go over the cap so offersheets do nothing unless you are sending more than 1

1) Yes, you can go over the cap
2) That would leave Tampa in a worse position than they are in today.
3) If someone got one of the guys to sign an offer sheet, everyone puts in their best offer for the guys that are left. An obvious no brainer on their part.

 

[wintersej]

Nothing will happen until the dates (start, end, trade deadline) are announced.
Then Brisbois will put Stamkos and his $8.5 million CAP hit on LTIR when the season starts and sign the three RFAs with the help of his CAP money.
Miraculously Stamkos will begin practicing with the team just before the trade deadline and will be in the lineup the day after the trade deadline when the CAP is no longer an issue.
No player is lost by Tampa and it smells just as bad as Marion Hossa's itchy equipment did in Chicago.

Cap doesn’t matter in the playoffs. It matters at the TDL.

 

[Big Muddy]

Man I just read this whole thread. There are a few posters in here who are worryingly invested in Tampa getting screwed over by the cap. Like it's kinda hilarious. What's even better is most of them cheer for non-playoff teams and bubble teams

It can feel like everyone is excited about the TBL getting creamed, but I don't that's the case for a lot of people, and certainly not me.

I think people are just wondering how the current market will effect teams in general, and certain teams more specifically. TSN had an article (link below). Here are a few excerpts from the article.

"On the other side of the table, front offices are starting to feel serious financial squeeze. The cash-poor teams that were already hurting before the stoppage of the 2020-21 regular season have been predictably quiet in the market. But so too have some of the bigger-market teams, those that tend to spend aggressively to the salary cap on an annual basis.

But at aggregate, it becomes clear that players have been materially impacted by the economic uncertainty, and the (free agent) class has signed comparatively cheap deals:

The forward class, year over year, saw a 50 per cent reduction in the total value of their contracts."

I don't think this is a personal thing and that many folks are relishing the pain coming TBL's (or another team) way. This is an unusual time and I think people are just reflecting and reacting to it.

Yost: NHL players feeling financial pinch in free agency - TSN.ca

 

[Big Muddy]

I suspect rebuilding teams with young skill but a dearth of quality vets would look into a Palat or a Killorn.

Yes, but there's always quality vets available through free agency each year. And, potentially they can be signed at lower $s (see #443 & TSN article). Also, many free agents are accepting one year deals and betting on themselves and a better financial picture in a couple of years versus trading for a player with many years of term left on his contract.

You are correct about the concept, but the question is what value do those players have in the current market? Isn't hard to determine that the value is far less than the average year.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

For non-TBL fans, what would you be happy with your GM accepting as a sweetener for TJ?

Killorn is the player I'd be interested in picking up for my team - Nashville. But the consensus seems to be that it's difficult to peg whether he may still have a little positive value, or whether the numbers game has trapped him as having a negative value also. But either way, he'd drop nicely into our open 2nd line spot. Give us Killorn and a 1st and we might still have enough room to take Johnson as well, and consider the "Killorn+1st" as the sweetener, although it's not a popular proposal amongst the rest of our fanbase. A lot of people are just against taking Johnson, full stop, regardless of any sweetener.

 

[BCNate]

Right. Maybe GMs are more averse to giving up a 1st to move a cap dump than we might expect? How often does it really happen? GM Dubas did with Marleau but the player was very uncooperative. Even this off-season, VGK basically gave away Schmidt instead of paying a 1st+ to move Fleury. NYR paid a 2nd to move 5.7m x 1yr of Marc Staal. Is there even a practical ceiling on the price for 5m x 4 if teams play hardball?

For non-TBL fans, what would you be happy with your GM accepting as a sweetener for TJ?

From a Canucks POV, assuming Ferland goes LTIR.

To TB:
Benn (Goes to AHL, costs TB less than 1 mill)
Joulevi
Draft pick, up for debate

to Van
Cernak
Johnson

Tampa saves 3 million this year to sign Cirelli and gets an NHL ready prospect to fill a bottom pair role. Benn expires at the end of the year.

 

[Henkka]

Defencemen going dirtcheap on current market.

People will be surpriced how cheap Sergachev will be...

- Sergachev extended 2-3 years, dirt cheap
- Cirelli 1-year, to minimize the caphit
- Cernak 1-year, to minimize the caphit
- Killorn traded as a hockey trade, great playoff performer to Western Contender

- And as a final piece, Johnson traded to... probably to Detroit with some incentives.

Most probable outcome, imo.

 

[Guttersniped]

It can feel like everyone is excited about the TBL getting creamed, but I don't that's the case for a lot of people, and certainly not me.

I think people are just wondering how the current market will effect teams in general, and certain teams more specifically. TSN had an article (link below). Here are a few excerpts from the article.

"On the other side of the table, front offices are starting to feel serious financial squeeze. The cash-poor teams that were already hurting before the stoppage of the 2020-21 regular season have been predictably quiet in the market. But so too have some of the bigger-market teams, those that tend to spend aggressively to the salary cap on an annual basis.

But at aggregate, it becomes clear that players have been materially impacted by the economic uncertainty, and the (free agent) class has signed comparatively cheap deals:

The forward class, year over year, saw a 50 per cent reduction in the total value of their contracts."

I don't think this is a personal thing and that many folks are relishing the pain coming TBL's (or another team) way. This is an unusual time and I think people are just reflecting and reacting to it.

Yost: NHL players feeling financial pinch in free agency - TSN.ca

Yeah, if anything this I’ve focused on hockey chatter as an escape and an emotional crutch from, uh, certain other upcoming events in the US with more real world significance.

I was rooting for Dallas because I wanted Pavelski to get a Cup but I have a soft spot for this Bolts team, it’s always entertaining, and Kucherov seems under appreciated (8th TSN? WTF?). Unless the Devils are involved with a deal I hate I can’t imagine actually caring about the results. I’m real curious at this point though, suspense has been more than adequately built.

I see all of BriseBois issues coming from the frozen cap which has led to teams not spending almost any new money on long term deals with forwards. Posters have suggested trading with Detroit and I would assume Yzerman has a good relationship with these players but they would have to be open to going to team that loses a lot of games and I don’t know if they would agree to that. The Athletic article floating Nashville and Florida makes more sense.

Some posters dire predictions come from imaging other GMs gleefully awaiting Tampa’s demise and assuming they approach negotiations as if they want to shove BriseBois down a flight of stairs. I heartily disagree with that sort of take.

This was true with Vegas as well, with some commentators surprised Benning “bailed” them out by taking Schmidt. I‘m not sure why they think that sociopathic cut throat antics lead to success in general. In the NHL, GMs often have to make cap dump deals at some point so not facilitating them for other teams is not a functional strategy, particularly if a divisional rival is dumping a defenseman you need on your lap.

 

[innitfam]

From a Canucks POV, assuming Ferland goes LTIR.

To TB:
Benn (Goes to AHL, costs TB less than 1 mill)
Joulevi
Draft pick, up for debate

to Van
Cernak
Johnson

Tampa saves 3 million this year to sign Cirelli and gets an NHL ready prospect to fill a bottom pair role. Benn expires at the end of the year.

The Canucks cannot afford that. Assuming Cernak gets at least 2M (very low end), the Canucks are adding over a million in cap with Johnson replacing an LTIR'd Ferland, when they are already over the cap now. Not to mention Johnson's term...

 

[Eggtimer]

Defencemen going dirtcheap on current market.

People will be surpriced how cheap Sergachev will be...

- Sergachev extended 2-3 years, dirt cheap
- Cirelli 1-year, to minimize the caphit
- Cernak 1-year, to minimize the caphit
- Killorn traded as a hockey trade, great playoff performer to Western Contender

- And as a final piece, Johnson traded to... probably to Detroit with some incentives.

Most probable outcome, imo.

Probable but boring lol .

I can see the RFA's taking sweetheart deals and get their worth down the road ( year or two later)
With TJ going to Detroit for maybe a 1st and a 2nd or pick and prospect?

I know it has been beat to death about offer sheets.... I know that the players have to sign them to make them even a possibility.. but if that is very unlikely , why is expecting the RFA to take pennies on the dollar for a contract or the players with NMC / NTC to waive not such a a stretch of the imagination or unlikely as them signing an offer sheet.