Speculation: What moves are Tampa going to make?

wintersej

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Nov 26, 2011
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Part of the problem is that some teams that have the cap space don't have their own picks that are required to make an offer sheet (for example. the Devils don't own their 2021 2nd round pick). The flat cap has also impacted teams that otherwise may have considered an offer sheet - at the very least, the flat cap reduced the ability of contending (i.e. more desirable) teams from having the cap space to make an offer or unload other contracts to clear space.

Mostly though, there is probably little incentive at this stage for any of the RFA's to accept an offer sheet. They probably would all prefer to stay in Tampa, especially after being in a bubble for months with their teammates and winning a Cup. That has to bring a team really close together, so I doubt they want to screw over their team/teammates by accepting an offer sheet at this point. Regardless of how this offseason turns out, Tampa is also going to be competitive for the foreseeable future, so who wouldn't want to stay in that situation?

That doesn't mean that there hasn't been an offer sheet made or that the RFA's haven't had any discussions with other teams. For now, they have time and are likely hoping for Tampa to get under the cap somehow while giving them a fair contract.

If we get closer to the start of next season and these guys are still unsigned and contract negotiations are not going great, then they may reconsider if an offer sheet comes their way.

Bingo. An offer sheet being signed was either going to be right away in free agency if a guy didn’t want to stick around and wanted something long term (obviously not the case) or late in the game when it’s clear there isn’t another option.
 

BCNate

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Apr 3, 2016
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The Canucks cannot afford that. Assuming Cernak gets at least 2M (very low end), the Canucks are adding over a million in cap with Johnson replacing an LTIR'd Ferland, when they are already over the cap now. Not to mention Johnson's term...

They can make it very close to working. They are 1.5 over right now.
-Bury LE and Baertschi in the AHL- save a little over 2 million
-Trade Benn-Saves 2 million
-LTIR Ferland-Saves 3.5

Leaves them with 6 to add TJ (5) and Cernak, who I assumed would be 3. Obviously still some work to do to shed 2 million, but not too far out of reach.

I haveno problen with Johnsons term. He is still a very good player and would fit our top 6 very well. He would be potentially be exposed to Seattle.
 

GoBoltz56

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They can make it very close to working. They are 1.5 over right now.
-Bury LE and Baertschi in the AHL- save a little over 2 million
-Trade Benn-Saves 2 million
-LTIR Ferland-Saves 3.5

Leaves them with 6 to add TJ (5) and Cernak, who I assumed would be 3. Obviously still some work to do to shed 2 million, but not too far out of reach.

I haveno problen with Johnsons term. He is still a very good player and would fit our top 6 very well. He would be potentially be exposed to Seattle.

I believe the max amount you can bury is around 1.2 million.
 

Guttersniped

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Probable but boring lol .

I can see the RFA's taking sweetheart deals and get their worth down the road ( year or two later)
With TJ going to Detroit for maybe a 1st and a 2nd or pick and prospect?

I know it has been beat to death about offer sheets.... I know that the players have to sign them to make them even a possibility.. but if that is very unlikely , why is expecting the RFA to take pennies on the dollar for a contract or the players with NMC / NTC to waive not such a a stretch of the imagination or unlikely as them signing an offer sheet.

Last off-season when Brayden Point was a RFA, he saw Vasilevskiy, who was 25 and coming off a 3 year/3.5m deal, sign a 8 year/9.5m worth a total of 76m on July 28.

Point finally signed a 3 year/6.75m deal with a 4.25m signing bonus on September 23. How good were any offer sheets sent Point’s way? I doubt they were good enough that they beat playing for what’s been an elite team for a decade and who would presumably give him a big money deal after the bridge deal was up. They also handed him a check for 4.25m when he signed the deal.

Offer sheets don’t particularly seem to work well and I’m not sure they are meant to but Aho signed one. It’s just tough to overcome the inherent limits of the offer sheet and get someone of a bitchin’ team. Florida is fun a place to live, especially if you’re rich, and we know about those t***s but winning a shit ton of games with future HHofFers is a huge pull as well. Boston gets guys cheaper too.

Point signed in late September and Kucherov signed his 3 year/4.76m in October, 11 2016 so these take a while to hammer these out despite all the alleged kool aid drinking.

Sergachev is going to take a bridge deal but he isn’t going to be grotesquely low balled just to help the team out of a jam. My final guess: they have to make it a two year deal to keep the number down and it will be less cheap than some think.

Cernak shouldn’t be expensive and they really need him. My final guess: he signs a super cheap three year bridge deal.

Cirelli is tough, he feels like he could end up traded but in the end BriseBois would likely sacrifice futures to move contracts before losing a young valuable roster player so I’m guessing he hangs in there. My final guess: I might as well go with a one year deal here.

My other guess: these guesses probably end up wrong.
 

innitfam

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Oct 18, 2017
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They can make it very close to working. They are 1.5 over right now.
-Bury LE and Baertschi in the AHL- save a little over 2 million
-Trade Benn-Saves 2 million
-LTIR Ferland-Saves 3.5

Leaves them with 6 to add TJ (5) and Cernak, who I assumed would be 3. Obviously still some work to do to shed 2 million, but not too far out of reach.

I haveno problen with Johnsons term. He is still a very good player and would fit our top 6 very well. He would be potentially be exposed to Seattle.

The math still doesn't work, you can only bury a max amount, not enough to bury Eriksson and Baertschi. And still leaves between 2-3M to move - and to who, for what?

In any case, if the Canucks were in a position to take one of TB's players, I'm sure Killorn would be massively preferred.
 

Henkka

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Probable but boring lol .

I can see the RFA's taking sweetheart deals and get their worth down the road ( year or two later)
With TJ going to Detroit for maybe a 1st and a 2nd or pick and prospect?

I know it has been beat to death about offer sheets.... I know that the players have to sign them to make them even a possibility.. but if that is very unlikely , why is expecting the RFA to take pennies on the dollar for a contract or the players with NMC / NTC to waive not such a a stretch of the imagination or unlikely as them signing an offer sheet.

It's like that Kevin Labanc deal.

He was worth ~4M year ago. Signed 1y 1M, because Sharks did have to get creative with the cap.

Now, after the 1-year deal, Labanc signed 4-year extension with 4.725k caphit, but his value wasn't that high. Evolving-hockey estimates were 3.77M for 4-year deal.

If you merge these 2 contracts together, that 1-year deal added on the 4-year deal, you get a 5-year deal with 3.98M caphit. So, on long run, he got what he is worth, but has ~750k higher caphit now, than it would have been with a cap-impossible long-term contract a year ago.

So that's what Wilson did, bought cap space from next years cap with some verbal (?) agreement, to overpay caphitvise a bit on next contract. Maybe illegal, maybe not, how to prove?

But an example about a loophole, what Tampa could exploit. You don't have to go 1-year deals with 1M as an extreme, but 1-year deal with relatively smaller salary. Then extend these guys, when Johnson situation and Seattle-lost player is clear.
 

CupsOverCash

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Probable but boring lol .

I can see the RFA's taking sweetheart deals and get their worth down the road ( year or two later)
With TJ going to Detroit for maybe a 1st and a 2nd or pick and prospect?

I know it has been beat to death about offer sheets.... I know that the players have to sign them to make them even a possibility.. but if that is very unlikely , why is expecting the RFA to take pennies on the dollar for a contract or the players with NMC / NTC to waive not such a a stretch of the imagination or unlikely as them signing an offer sheet.

Its because its a different situation than what we are used to but act like it's a normal year as far as how they deal with contracts & free agents right now. You are exactly right though, there is no reason to think they could just get these guys signed to cheaper than normal deals considering the conditions of the market at the moment. They all love tampa and they just won a cup with massive potential to win more. Their cap situation sucks right now but with some clever moves they could avoid most of what hurts from that and sign these guys later to great deals when some other contracts come off. If that happens then their window gets extended and I think that idea is potentially scary to some fans out there.

Imo, in the end it will come down to how much these rfas want to be here and how much they are willing to work with tb to make it work for now because it certainly will down the line if they continue doing what they have done in the past. Which is bridge the guys and take care of them later. If they continue to buy into that but it is a little more extreme this year, then it will be another situation where tampa gets the rfa signed at cheaper than normal. Which is exactly what has happened over the years and it does seem to be lost on some as a possibility again for this one.

What makes this different is we actually need to move somebody to make even that a possibility. However frankly not a possibility that people have discussed enough here. All doom and gloom for tampa which I get but that's been the case every summer and then they make a move that causes everyone to bitch about taxes for a month. Does anybody see that changing this time around or are you gonna put yourself in that position again? I say be open to all possibilities in the current climate we are in. Because players do love it there. The question remains how much do they love it there?
 

Eggtimer

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Jul 4, 2011
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If I was one of the RFA's , I would take less than market value . Who wouldn't ? You are on a team that just won the Cup , amazing climate , awesome tax situation, on and on .
BUT
What if the promise of getting taken care of later down the road never happens? A lot of things could happen . The GM could get fired / retire / get ill / etc etc. ( very unlikely but still possible ) .
Or a trade offer or signing happens out of the blue that is too good for Tampa to pass up and puts the squeeze on the cap even more?
Or one of the RFA's has a career ending injury or an injury that effects his production and value? Eye injury , concussion , ACL etc etc. Very risky move and these kids are only 23 ish years old .

As much as I talk about how enticing it would be to play on a Stanley cup winner , perhaps the player(s) want t new challenge now? They won it all , now they want a new challenge and prove to themselves or others that they can win on a different team . Or they want to move to a situation where they would play a bigger role on the new team. Increased ice time , PP1 PK1 time . Again unlikely , but still a possibility.

I can see how and why the RFA's would agree to sweetheart deals , but I can also see how it would be risky and not something I would be too thrilled to do.
 

BCNate

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Apr 3, 2016
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The math still doesn't work, you can only bury a max amount, not enough to bury Eriksson and Baertschi. And still leaves between 2-3M to move - and to who, for what?

In any case, if the Canucks were in a position to take one of TB's players, I'm sure Killorn would be massively preferred.

Of course you'd rather have Kilorn or Palat, but the real play by the Canucks is to get Cernak. You have to also make the numbers work a bit on TB's end.

We'd have to make another move for sure. 2-3 over isn't a huge deal. Pearson is very movable, and there are a number of cheap UFA replacements who wouldn't be a huge step down.

I get you can shoot holes in any offer. Really just trying to change the conversation in this thread away from all the incoming offer sheets that will never happen. While I get this deal is highly unlikely to happen it is not completely unrealistic either.
 

ShaneinTpa

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May 21, 2019
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Based on what? I would imagine most hockey players would prefer a Canadian city to live at this point
Apparently you’ve never been to Tampa. And for the record I’m a Canadian and I’ve been to every NHL city in the country up there
 

ShaneinTpa

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May 21, 2019
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I cant see the Devils going after a forward as their biggest need is D . Unless a very good D prospect is added in the deal like Foote. But im guessing Foote will be needed by Tampa to fill a roster spot and his ELC is a huge need to help fill out the roster with a low cap hit. Not sure how that works though wiht expansion rules , if Foote would then need to be protected if he plays this year for Tampa . I'm guessing he would not ?
He would not. Players on a rookie contract do not have to be protected
 

ShaneinTpa

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May 21, 2019
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First let me say I love Anthony Cirelli.

That said, I wouldn’t give up two first round draft picks to get him. It’s very likely in this environment we would have to give up just that to move Johnson and Killorn to keep him.

At this point, probably the best thing that could happen to Tampa Bay is for someone to offer Cirelli a tier 3 offer sheet sending us a 2021 1st and 3rd pick. In the aftermath, we would still have Point, Stamkos, Gourde and either Stephens or Paquette to play center. At that point we could offer Johnson and either our first round pick or The one we get in the buy out as a sweetener. I can see Nashville looking very closely at that since they have both the Space and the need for a number two center having just lost both Turris and Bonino. Even if they needed another lesser asset that’s a deal that could be made. And, it’s a deal that other teams would look more closely at if they do not.

This gives enough money for a short term bridge for Sergachev and Cernak, neither of whom we can lose since we currently only have four NHL defenseman under contract. If that’s not enough they could look at moving Killorn but it’s likely the balance could be made up by moving either Paquette or Coburn.

It’s not ideal, but life goes on without mortgaging the future.
 

HawksDub89

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Apr 17, 2019
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I lived in Tampa for 3-4 years for work, (including 2015, sorry guys) great city.

My only complaint is yes, the summers are absolutely brutal, it’s either 90 and extreme humidity or massive thunderstorms. Other complaint is people can’t f*cking drive. But that’s probably due to tourism and a large elderly population. I4 is usually a dumpster fire.

Other than that Tampa’s a great place to live. Imagine being 25-30 in Tampa making millions, you could do worse.

Great organization and fans too, easy to see why players would want to stay. I was very happy the bolts finally got their cup, we’ll deserved.
 

GAGLine

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Sep 17, 2007
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He would not. Players on a rookie contract do not have to be protected

Cal Foote does need to be protected.

Expansion Draft FAQ - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

First & Second Year Pros
All players who have accrued two or less professional seasons at the end of the 2020-21 season, as well as all unsigned draft choices appearing on the teams reserve list, will be exempt from the upcoming expansion draft.

Foote will have 3 years accrued as of the end of the 2020-21 season.
 
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DFC

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If Foote doesn't show something this year, I'd use him as a trade piece to get Seattle to take some money off us and keep them off our better players.
 

TCNorthstars

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Jan 5, 2009
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I lived in Tampa for 3-4 years for work, (including 2015, sorry guys) great city.

My only complaint is yes, the summers are absolutely brutal, it’s either 90 and extreme humidity or massive thunderstorms. Other complaint is people can’t f*cking drive. But that’s probably due to tourism and a large elderly population. I4 is usually a dumpster fire.

Other than that Tampa’s a great place to live. Imagine being 25-30 in Tampa making millions, you could do worse.

Great organization and fans too, easy to see why players would want to stay. I was very happy the bolts finally got their cup, we’ll deserved.

Humidity is suffocating

And they have plenty of money to spend some of that oppressive summer in a cooler less humid climate.
 
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BoltSTH

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Sep 4, 2008
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I moved to Tampa 20 years ago from White Plains NY, and never regretted it.
Cons: Heat index over 100 July-October, traffic, people can't drive, occasional hurricanes, republican governor/senators/state houses.
Pros: No snow/ice/Nor'easters, don't have to chip ice of windshield/door lock in winter, can use pool 9+ months of the year, no state tax, cheaper house price than NY, lots of attractions nearby, beaches, can wear shorts and tee shirts year round.
Celebrities also benefit from being left alone when in public.
 
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hmc1987

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Jun 2, 2019
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Summers can be brutal but they're still more tolerable than winters up north. Having said that only place that has better weather is California where temps are milder and there's no humidity.

I like the cold and enjoy winter. You can always add a layer, but you can't manage heat after a certain point.

I wouldn't live anywhere below Pennsylvania...gets too warm for my liking. I am not a representation of everyone and many people I've met are the exact opposite.
 

GoBoltz56

Brisebois 1st Rounder
Jul 31, 2004
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I know some people love FL and some hate it, but I can tell you for a fact that MANY former lightning players end up retiring and staying in Tampa. Even guys who didn't spend much time in the organization. I have played mens league on teams with Sergei Gusev who still has a place here, Chris Dingman, Rudy Poeschek. Larry Robinson had a house on my street in the Tampa area when I was a kid and he never had anything to do with the Lightning.
 
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RogerRoger

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Jul 23, 2013
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I know some people love FL and some hate it, but I can tell you for a fact that MANY former lightning players end up retiring and staying in Tampa. Even guys who didn't spend much time in the organization. I have played mens league on teams with Sergei Gusev who still has a place here, Chris Dingman, Rudy Poeschek. Larry Robinson had a house on my street in the Tampa area when I was a kid and he never had anything to do with the Lightning.
Same thing with the Panthers.
 

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