Long Post Warning:
At this stage in the Karlsson time on the Sharks, I'd argue endlessly that's it's premature to make any sweeping conclusions. There are list of facts that contribute to play below his career average levels that I feel often get overlooked.
... (edited for length)
Some of his other elite attributes, like passing, vision, puck control, and, most importantly, zone exits/entries are still elite relative to the field, with the latter ability being unmatched.
Analyzing the NHL’s skill players: Who is the best at breaking out? - Sportsnet.ca
Now, let's look at a couple of facts about Karlsson that have hindered his ability to be the Norris-level defenseman he once was. I'll try to put these in chronological order the best I can and bold the very important ones
- Internal issues in Ottawa lead to management trying and failing to trade him at the deadline
- 5 months prior to his eventual trade, he lost child
- Hoffman saga
- Gets traded to the Sharks during training camp, doesnt play preseason games. Slow start, looks rusty
- Emotional return to Ottawa behind him, Karlsson explodes as perhaps the best player in the league
- Injures his groin
- Returns for the playoffs, clearing still injured, but produces and plays well.
- Blues target him (confirmed) with physical play, re-injures groin
- Limited offseason training while he recovers from injury
- Has a healthy baby the day of the season opener (heavily understated how important this is)
- Slow start again, made to look worse by abysmal goaltending
- Injured again
Needless to say, he has had a wild and abnormal two years. So let's look at some of the big issues.
Physical hindrances: During his time in San Jose, Karlsson has not had the ability to have proper offseason and preseason training with the team. 2018/2019 season saw him round to elite form after some adjusting. 2019/2020 saw his physical preparation be limited by injury and the birth of his daughter (missed games, likely poor sleep schedule, etc).
Mental hindrances: The whole Ottawa ordeal clearly was a roadblock for him, as evidenced by his turnaround after the game in Ottawa in 2018. This season, and again this is extremely understated, the birth of his daughter absolutely became his priority over hockey, and while he is a professional, he is a human first and it's understandable that he would prioritize family over a job given the death of his first child.
Goaltending woes: Karlsson's game has always been high-risk, high-reward. It's why he played so well with a steady defenseman like Methot, and even Dillon at times. In Ottawa, he played in front of Craig Anderson, who could make routine saves and come up big when Karlsson would take an offensive risk / make a defensive mistake. Jones, on the other hand, cannot. Watch any Senators game from Karlsson's time there and his defensive style doesnt look much different. He still lost track of the puck in the crease, would let guys in behind him, would stick to posts and be flatfooted etc, but the difference was he had a goalie who could make routine, low danger saves.
Playing from behind: In 57 games this season that Karlsson played, the Sharks surrendered the first goal
31 times. Of those 31 games, they had
8 wins, gave up the first goal roughly within the first 5 mins
17(!) times (
20 times in the first 10 mins), and also game up the second goal
15 times. Those aren decidedly not good numbers, nor numbers reflective of a team with good goaltending or team defense. Playing from behind, especially within the first 5 mins, throws off a teams entire plan, and when it's a repeating pattern, it breaks player morale. Hard for teams to produce offensively when they are constantly playing from behind.
For record, in last year's playoffs, the Sharks played 20 games. They scored the first goal 8 times and won 7 of those games. 12 games they surrendered the first goal, 9 of those coming in roughly the first 5 mins. They lost every one of those games.
My overall point in all of this is to highlight that it's important to weigh multiple factors, many less obvious, when evaluating Karlsson's time on the Sharks, beyond points and goals against. Goaltending has really f***ed this team up and forced the team to constantly play from behind, stifling the offense. And beyond that, i think it's really critical to understand the physical and mental effects of him losing and then having a child.
Let's give the guy a chance to have a normal season before we make any conclusions about him.
Attached the data for those interested
