Speculation: What happens with Strome?

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Depends what the return is and how long you expect Toews to play for you and whether you project Dach as 1 or 2C. Strome is 22. He still has some room to grow, but not a ton of room. He needs to play 2C and if you don't have a spot for him on 2C you move on.

There is also the expansion draft and the salary cap which are going to lead to a lot of shuffling.

Now, the scenario where you keep him is you project Dach as your 1C and you don't resign Toews when his contract is up. I kinda suspect resigning Toews is gonna be tough because the Hawks would probably want him resigned making like 3 or 4 million less than he does. At that point you are going to have young players looking for a raise.

I could see teams close to cup contention paying Toews more in the short term. I really think of Toews/Kane, Kane is the one who will stay and my prediction is that the next captain of the Blackhawks is not Dach or Ian Mitchell or Debrincat, it's Patrick Kane.

However, that scenario is far enough out that you have plenty of time to come up with a 2C option before then and still move Strome. You are going to deal some of the upcoming young D and it could be for forward depth.

Strome is 23 and 3+months away from being 24.

I think Toews legacy is more important to the org than your run of the mill 2C that doesn't bring anything to the table other than offense. If you actually thought that Strome could be a 1B type of center, I wouldn't be opposed to that....but if you demote Toews to 3C now then you are intentionally tanking his legacy and HHOF chances and I'm not sure they want to do that to someone so important to the franchise.

I think 19 and 88 are Hawks lifers. I don't think either guy wants to play anywhere else at this point, and I think the Hawks will respect that. Rocky knows how important those guys are and he has to show them that he's not his father. I think both guys re-sign on a lower AAV 3 year deal when their current deal is up and go year to year like Thornton/San Jose if they're still interested in playing.

 

[Brightwing]

Strome is 23 and 3+months away from being 24.

I think Toews legacy is more important to the org than your run of the mill 2C that doesn't bring anything to the table other than offense. If you actually thought that Strome could be a 1B type of center, I wouldn't be opposed to that....but if you demote Toews to 3C now then you are intentionally tanking his legacy and HHOF chances and I'm not sure they want to do that to someone so important to the franchise.

You are correct in all your points, including Strome's age. The most important factor beyond Toews's legacy is that he is still a significantly better player than Strome and Dach so I don't see a scenario where he plays 3C before the end of his contract.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

You are correct in all your points, including Strome's age. The most important factor beyond Toews's legacy is that he is still a significantly better player than Strome and Dach so I don't see a scenario where he plays 3C before the end of his contract.

I think that Dach is going to take over 1C in a year or two.

 

[Brightwing]

I think that Dach is going to take over 1C in a year or two.

I wanna see a Kubalik-Dach-Kane line. One of the criticisms of Kane is that he had a really bad defensive year this year and that the team bled high danger chances when he was on the ice. I feel like Dach should be a better C for him than Strome to help mitigate that and Kubalik is a very good finisher who I don't think has played much with Kane.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Judging by the responses on the main board, the Hawks should just keep Strome as long as they can afford him. Let him hang with Cat and roll 3 scoring lines.

 

[UsernameWasTaken]

I probably wouldn't get rid of him right now. But I think the organization just needs to accept he is what he is.

Despite my many high hopes for him, he has exactly the same faults right now (poor skater, weak) that he did in jr and he was supposed to improve on...and, although he's not "old", he's not going to suddenly fix those problems anymore.

That doesn't mean he can't contribute - while I might not immediately ditch him, it's not like I would hold back better players to prop him up.

 

[Brightwing]

Great analysis on Strome in the Athletic today. Here's a couple of choice paragraphs:

When he’s on the ice, the Blackhawks tend to score more goals than allow — over the last two seasons, he’s been on the ice for 90 goals for and 76 against in 5-on-5 play (all numbers found on Natural Stat Trick). Only Patrick Kane has a greater on-ice goals percentage among the players who have been on the team both seasons.
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Strome probably won’t ever be beloved by the analytics community. His expected goals percentage doesn’t often reflect his actual percentage — his 47.14 this past season was 10 points lower than his actual percentage. In the 2018-19 season, his expected goals percentage was 43.08 while his actual goals percentage was 52.43.

Strome is the type of player who will probably continue to defy the analytics. The Blackhawks tend to give up a lot of scoring chances when he’s on the ice. Opponents averaged 32.34 scoring chances per 60 minutes against the Blackhawks whenever Strome was on the ice in 5-on-5 play the last two seasons. That’s among the league’s worst ratios among all forwards over the last two seasons. On the other hand, the Blackhawks also create scoring chances at a high rate (27.54) with Strome on the ice, but, more importantly, they capitalize on those chances, which leads to a greater actual goals percentage.

The reason the Blackhawks score more goals than give up with Strome on the ice is a combination of his passing ability and his linemates’ scoring abilities. Strome is one of the top distributors in the league. His 1.04 primary assists per 60 over the last two seasons is only second to Kane (1.08) on the Blackhawks and puts him in the top 20 in the league.

Also, they estimate he is a high third or low second line centre and the salary estimate based on Dom L.'s model is $3.5-4M. What the piece didn't analyze is Strome's performance with different lines. One commenter said that when he's not playing with DeBrincat or Kane, he disappears. So you have a player that has a great offensive impact but only with elite players. A middle six centre whose game only really works when playing with top six talent. If he could just elevate his defensive game to be middling, he'd be a really good player.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Great analysis on Strome in the Athletic today. Here's a couple of choice paragraphs:

When he’s on the ice, the Blackhawks tend to score more goals than allow — over the last two seasons, he’s been on the ice for 90 goals for and 76 against in 5-on-5 play (all numbers found on Natural Stat Trick). Only Patrick Kane has a greater on-ice goals percentage among the players who have been on the team both seasons.
.
.
.

Strome probably won’t ever be beloved by the analytics community. His expected goals percentage doesn’t often reflect his actual percentage — his 47.14 this past season was 10 points lower than his actual percentage. In the 2018-19 season, his expected goals percentage was 43.08 while his actual goals percentage was 52.43.

Strome is the type of player who will probably continue to defy the analytics. The Blackhawks tend to give up a lot of scoring chances when he’s on the ice. Opponents averaged 32.34 scoring chances per 60 minutes against the Blackhawks whenever Strome was on the ice in 5-on-5 play the last two seasons. That’s among the league’s worst ratios among all forwards over the last two seasons. On the other hand, the Blackhawks also create scoring chances at a high rate (27.54) with Strome on the ice, but, more importantly, they capitalize on those chances, which leads to a greater actual goals percentage.

The reason the Blackhawks score more goals than give up with Strome on the ice is a combination of his passing ability and his linemates’ scoring abilities. Strome is one of the top distributors in the league. His 1.04 primary assists per 60 over the last two seasons is only second to Kane (1.08) on the Blackhawks and puts him in the top 20 in the league.

Also, they estimate he is a high third or low second line centre and the salary estimate based on Dom L.'s model is $3.5-4M. What the piece didn't analyze is Strome's performance with different lines. One commenter said that when he's not playing with DeBrincat or Kane, he disappears. So you have a player that has a great offensive impact but only with elite players. A middle six centre whose game only really works when playing with top six talent. If he could just elevate his defensive game to be middling, he'd be a really good player.

It sort of talked about his performance on different lines:

It’s no surprise Alex DeBrincat and Kane score more goals when on the ice with Strome than away from him. Over the last two seasons, Kane has scored 1.49 goals per 60 and DeBrincat 1.14 while on the ice with Strome. We examined DeBrincat’s goal scoring earlier this offseason and how Strome impacts it.

Colliton will also have to figure out where to put Strome on a line. Strome has mostly played center with the Blackhawks, but he’s also had stretches at wing. He played some with Artem Anisimov during the 2018-19 season, and there wasn’t much upside to that. It didn’t change Strome’s analytics much. But when Colliton put Strome on the wing with Dach last season, Strome’s numbers improved. In 180:19 of 5-on-5 ice time with Dach, Strome had an expected goals against average of 2.21 per 60 minutes. He was at 2.64 for the season. His expected goals percentage was 49.84 with Dach and 44.84 away from him. Considering Dach and Strome also had an actual goals percentage of 57.14 together, there’s a lot of evidence Strome benefited from playing with a better defensive center.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

It sort of talked about his performance on different lines:

It’s no surprise Alex DeBrincat and Kane score more goals when on the ice with Strome than away from him. Over the last two seasons, Kane has scored 1.49 goals per 60 and DeBrincat 1.14 while on the ice with Strome. We examined DeBrincat’s goal scoring earlier this offseason and how Strome impacts it.

Colliton will also have to figure out where to put Strome on a line. Strome has mostly played center with the Blackhawks, but he’s also had stretches at wing. He played some with Artem Anisimov during the 2018-19 season, and there wasn’t much upside to that. It didn’t change Strome’s analytics much. But when Colliton put Strome on the wing with Dach last season, Strome’s numbers improved. In 180:19 of 5-on-5 ice time with Dach, Strome had an expected goals against average of 2.21 per 60 minutes. He was at 2.64 for the season. His expected goals percentage was 49.84 with Dach and 44.84 away from him. Considering Dach and Strome also had an actual goals percentage of 57.14 together, there’s a lot of evidence Strome benefited from playing with a better defensive center.

If they could get him to work out as a winger that would be huge.

 

[Brightwing]

If they could get him to work out as a winger that would be huge.

They would need a finisher on that line.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

If they could get him to work out as a winger that would be huge.

As Powers pointed out, the numbers looked good when he played wing with Dach. This is also what I have pointed to when discussions around Strome at wing have come up.

I feel like it’s more that Strome doesn’t want to play wing as opposed to him not being capable of it. But that’s just speculation on my part.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

They would need a finisher on that line.

Kane, at least that’s what Powers floats here. But the DeBrincat-Dach-Strome line was also one of the best combos Colliton put together last year, according to the fancy stats.

 

[jls24]

If we're moving him to wing then how about Kubs-Toews-Strome?

That will also put another capable FO guy on the line when Toews inevitably gets tossed.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

Theres no hurt in trying him there this year. If Strome could turn into a 55 point winger that would be huge. They have nothing to lose. If it doesn't work, they can cut bait.

 

[RememberTheRoar]

Theres no hurt in trying him there this year. If Strome could turn into a 55 point winger that would be huge. They have nothing to lose. If it doesn't work, they can cut bait.

That’s where I’m at. Also, if you happen to build an effective third line around him, that’s great too. But I think Colliton wants a more two-way third line than what could be built around Strome.

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

That’s where I’m at. Also, if you happen to build an effective third line around him, that’s great too. But I think Colliton wants a more two-way third line than what could be built around Strome.

Yeah, and if he doesn't work there he can be moved for another change of scenery candidate like Mittelstadt or something. We know Strome is an NHL player, it's just a matter of whether or not he fits here.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Yeah, and if he doesn't work there he can be moved for another change of scenery candidate like Mittelstadt or something. We know Strome is an NHL player, it's just a matter of whether or not he fits here.

No thanks to Casey

 

[Kaners Bald Spot]

No thanks to Casey

Just spitballing options.

 

[Mrfenn92]

Just spitballing options.

Understood

 

[ColbyChaos]

Yeah, and if he doesn't work there he can be moved for another change of scenery candidate like Mittelstadt or something. We know Strome is an NHL player, it's just a matter of whether or not he fits here.

Trading Strome for a non nhl player makes for a pretty trash trade

 

[HockeySauce]

If Strome could work on the wing, that's fine. The issue with Strome is he's not a great forechecker and doesn't really come out with pucks along the boards/in battles. I could be wrong but I don't think he's played wing for any significant stretch of time dating back to his Junior days. I'd imagine it will be a bit of an adjustment for him.

Also, who would be our 3C next year, if he moves to wing? I know everyone loves Kurashev, but he's not a sure thing to make the team, let alone be a top-9 centre.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

What happens to Strome?

 

[Malaka]

What happens to Strome?

View attachment 378593

Mantha for Strome+

 

[Toews2Bickell]

Mantha for Strome+

Mainly meant that his situation appears to be heading in same direction as Perlini last summer where he ultimately accepts his QO to play and hes on the trade block and likely shipped out before he gets another contract...Maybe there is some reason like LTIR money or something but if he was part of their long term plans have to imagine he would've been inked when Kubalik extended...

 

[BobbyJet]

Mainly meant that his situation appears to be heading in same direction as Perlini last summer where he ultimately accepts his QO to play and hes on the trade block and likely shipped out before he gets another contract...Maybe there is some reason like LTIR money or something but if he was part of their long term plans have to imagine he would've been inked when Kubalik extended...

My take: Hawks could use a guy like Strome if they were a contending team. They aren't ... and money is tight. It is unlikely that Stan can afford to sign him.