What does your Rebuild Roster look like in 3 years?

[Habs]

You still avoid the actual stats I presented you... 7th in pts/game with our picks since 2012 when compared to all other teams under the same exact period in time.

So in effect, your evaluation is a gut feel and you don't know how our situation stacks up against all other teams. I understand where your coming from now.

Are you talking about active prospects on the team now, or prospects in the system?

 

[OnTheRun]

Habs are not rebuilding now, so the 3 years from now timetable for the "rebuild-which-has-yet-to-start" is pretty weird to begin with.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Are you talking about active prospects on the team now, or prospects in the system?

I'm talking about all teams picks from 2012 forward and what they have actually done in the NHL. This is real stats and not opinions. Last time I gathered the stats, it was in December and we were ranked 7th in pts/game. And once again, I have heard comments that it's all Galchenyuk. Well, I then removed all teams best producing pick and we are middle of the pack.

I also did the years from 2008-2011.
- 8 top 100 picks
- We rank middle to bottom third in pts/game. Can't remember exactly where. Think it was 18th ish

The correlation between how many top 100 picks and what they turn into in the NHL is showing trends. The 23 top 100 picks we have since 2012 (average of 3.83 per year) results in us ranking 7th in pts/game. Will we drop or rise moving forward? Don't know and it's hard to predict. What I do know is our straight is in quantity. We have many prospects who can surprise like Mete did. But we can't expect them to be elite level.

My conclusions as of mid way part of this year is we are somewhere in the middle of the pack. If we suck, half the teams in the League suck as well.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Habs are not rebuilding now, so the 3 years from now timetable for the "rebuild-which-has-yet-to-start" is pretty weird to begin with.

We are not rebuilding now? We had 5 top 100 picks last draft and 7 more top 100 picks in this next draft. We also have the 3rd overall pick and 4-2nd round picks.

My god... what more do you want? The first 5 picks of the draft! lol

Do you know how rare it is to have 10 picks in the first 128? There is going to be 3, 4, 5 NHL players from this draft that we take. Cross your fingers there is some talent in the 2nd round!

 

[Kent Nilsson]

I'm talking about all teams picks from 2012 forward and what they have actually done in the NHL. This is real stats and not opinions. Last time I gathered the stats, it was in December and we were ranked 7th in pts/game. And once again, I have heard comments that it's all Galchenyuk. Well, I then removed all teams best producing pick and we are middle of the pack.

I also did the years from 2008-2011.
- 8 top 100 picks
- We rank middle to bottom third in pts/game. Can't remember exactly where. Think it was 18th ish

The correlation between how many top 100 picks and what they turn into in the NHL is showing trends. The 23 top 100 picks we have since 2012 (average of 3.83 per year) results in us ranking 7th in pts/game. Will we drop or rise moving forward? Don't know and it's hard to predict. What I do know is our straight is in quantity. We have many prospects who can surprise like Mete did. But we can't expect them to be elite level.

My conclusions as of mid way part of this year is we are somewhere in the middle of the pack. If we suck, half the teams in the League suck as well.

You are basing your "opinion" on "data" that tells you Arturi Lehkonen is more valuable than Jaccob Slavin or Ivan Provorov. You are the equivalent of a scientist that starts with a defined answer and then searches for numbers that will lead to it somehow.

 

[Habs Halifax]

You are basing your "opinion" on "data" that tells you Arturi Lehkonen is more valuable than Jaccob Slavin or Ivan Provorov. You are the equivalent of a scientist that starts with a defined answer and then searches for numbers that will lead to it somehow.

No, I'm not. I don't compare Defenseman to Forwards. I understand where you coming from but you can't measure player against player. My system evaluate trends and the correlation of how many picks you have (top 10, top 100, total picks) vs actual games played, points, and points per game in the NHL. Slavin and Provorov have produced points and games played while what defenseman has produced points for the Habs since the 2012 draft? So in this case, they would be getting a better production from those guys.

My system approach is much better than someone's gut feeling or wild guess opinion. Like I said, how fair is it when someone thinks Thomas is a #1C and Poehling is only a #3C? It's someone's prediction and maybe they end up both 2nd line centers in the end. How is this fair to the Habs when pretty much every single prospects we have are devalued. Pretty sure if another team had Poehling, they would be calling him a grade A prospect.

I'll be very clear... my system evaluates your ability to produce NHL players both elite and bottom of the line-up and how it correlates to how many picks you have and where you typically picked. I don't see us being a bottom of the league in prospects. There are many teams that are in the same boat as us and lack grade A prospects.

 

[OnTheRun]

We are not rebuilding now? We had 5 top 100 picks last draft and 7 more top 100 picks in this next draft. We also have the 3rd overall pick and 4-2nd round picks.

My god... what more do you want? The first 5 picks of the draft! lol

Do you know how rare it is to have 10 picks in the first 128? There is going to be 3, 4, 5 NHL players from this draft that we take. Cross your fingers there is some talent in the 2nd round!

Don't count your chickens before they hatch. Let's start with that.
They have no one to build around at this point in time.

 

[Kent Nilsson]

No, I'm not. I don't compare Defenseman to Forwards. I understand where you coming from but you can't measure player against player. My system evaluate trends and the correlation of how many picks you have (top 10, top 100, total picks) vs actual games played, points, and points per game in the NHL. Slavin and Provorov have produced points and games played while what defenseman has produced points for the Habs since the 2012 draft? So in this case, they would be getting a better production from those guys.

My system approach is much better than someone's gut feeling or wild guess opinion. Like I said, how fair is it when someone thinks Thomas is a #1C and Poehling is only a #3C? It's someone's prediction and maybe they end up both 2nd line centers in the end. How is this fair to the Habs when pretty much every single prospects we have are devalued. Pretty sure if another team had Poehling, they would be calling him a grade A prospect.

I'll be very clear... my system evaluates your ability to produce NHL players both elite and bottom of the line-up and how it correlates to how many picks you have and where you typically picked. I don't see us being a bottom of the league in prospects. There are many teams that are in the same boat as us and lack grade A prospects.

You have no "system" its just inane nonsense.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Don't count your chickens before they hatch. Let's start with that.
They have no one to build around at this point in time.

I'm not counting my chickens before they hatch, I'm counting them after they hatched! I'm creating a depth chart and addressing team needs and how these prospects (after the next draft) fit within the depth chart. You think that I think Lehkonen is a future 30 goal scorer year after year. It's BS!

 

[habsgirl5000]

can't really answer this question because we are not rebuilding,

all i care about in three years is that Price is gone by then, the sooner the better

 

[Habs Halifax]

You have no "system" its just inane nonsense.

No, Your wild gut opinion with nothing to back it up is nonsense. How about you go Google "NHL team Rankings" and believe what you see from someones opinion and what they see in their Imaginary crystal ball. The one by the Hockey writers is my favorite. A guy who covers the Leafs puts the Leafs as a top 9 team while the Sens and Habs are 27th and 28th lol.

 

[Habs Halifax]

can't really answer this question because we are not rebuilding,

all i care about in three years is that Price is gone by then, the sooner the better

How can we not be rebuilding with all the picks we have had in the last draft and the next draft? Do you think we trade these assets for current NHL bodies?

Go look at the thread opening. You want us to rebuild. That's exactly what our roster looks like in 3 years minus what we get for Price, Weber, Petry, Byron. Do you think what we get for these guys puts us in a position where we can be a cup contender moving forward at the 3 year mark?

 

[Harry22]

No, I'm not. I don't compare Defenseman to Forwards. I understand where you coming from but you can't measure player against player. My system evaluate trends and the correlation of how many picks you have (top 10, top 100, total picks) vs actual games played, points, and points per game in the NHL. Slavin and Provorov have produced points and games played while what defenseman has produced points for the Habs since the 2012 draft? So in this case, they would be getting a better production from those guys.

My system approach is much better than someone's gut feeling or wild guess opinion. Like I said, how fair is it when someone thinks Thomas is a #1C and Poehling is only a #3C? It's someone's prediction and maybe they end up both 2nd line centers in the end. How is this fair to the Habs when pretty much every single prospects we have are devalued. Pretty sure if another team had Poehling, they would be calling him a grade A prospect.

I'll be very clear... my system evaluates your ability to produce NHL players both elite and bottom of the line-up and how it correlates to how many picks you have and where you typically picked. I don't see us being a bottom of the league in prospects. There are many teams that are in the same boat as us and lack grade A prospects.

The problem with your method is that you take into account just points as of right now.

If you did the same exercice say in 2009:

- You would have had Karl Alzner more valuable than P.K Subban and Ryan McDonagh
- You would have had Sam Gagner and David Perron more valuable than Max Pacioretty

If you did the same exercice in 2007:

- You would have everybody more valuable than Carey Price, Tomas Plekanec, Chris Higgins etc.

Bottom line is, your ''work'' does not take into account multiple factors, including players that peak a bit later, does not include goaltenders etc.

Also, we are not a very good team now and our prospect pool is AT BEST, by your own flawed account, middle of the pack.

 

[Habs Halifax]

The problem with your method is that you take into account just points as of right now.

If you did the same exercice say in 2009:

- You would have had Karl Alzner more valuable than P.K Subban and Ryan McDonagh
- You would have had Sam Gagner and David Perron more valuable than Max Pacioretty

If you did the same exercice in 2007:

- You would have everybody more valuable than Carey Price, Tomas Plekanec, Chris Higgins etc.

Bottom line is, your ''work'' does not take into account multiple factors, including players that peak a bit later, does not include goaltenders etc.

Also, we are not a very good team now and our prospect pool is AT BEST, by your own flawed account, middle of the pack.

It's not a perfect system for sure. But it's way better than your gut feeling that we suck now cause we sucked before. We are middle of the pack ish. We are not bottom of the league. The trends I see support this and it eliminates bias opinions.

Each team is evaluated equally under the exact same time period. It's a fair system and I posted this on the main board months ago and got a lot of good comments from it. It was listed as an article so I am not pulling this out of thin air and I don't really care about cranky comments where our team is thrown under the bus cause you don't like our GM.

 

[Le Tricolore]

It's not a perfect system for sure. But it's way better than your gut feeling that we suck now cause we sucked before. We are middle of the pack ish. We are not bottom of the league. The trends I see support this and it eliminate bias opinions.

Each team is evaluated equally under the exact same time period. It's a fair system and I posted this on the main board months ago and got a lot of good comments from it. It was listed as an article so I am not pulling this out of thin air and I don't really care about cranky comments where our team is thrown under the bus cause you don't like our GM.

Nah, I think we suck right now since we have a severe lack of talent and depth, not because we sucked in the past.

 

[Harry22]

It's not a perfect system for sure. But it's way better than your gut feeling that we suck now cause we sucked before. We are middle of the pack ish. We are not bottom of the league. The trends I see support this and it eliminate bias opinions.

1) Glad your admit your system is just not good.
2) My system is not ''gut''. It's seeing the results in Montreal and in Laval/St. Johns/Hamilton and seeing how unhelpful the call-ups are.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Nah, I think we suck right now since we have a severe lack of talent and depth, not because we sucked in the past.

I agree we lack grade A prospects both today and in the past 10 years. But the point is we are not bottom of the league. Most don't realize that there is a bunch of teams in the same boat or worse.

Poehling, Mete, Juuslen, Scherbak, Lehkonen, DLR, Lindgren are nothing to brag about but we have many more grade B type guys that can surprise. Depth is the strength. If we can add a few grade A prospects, it changes the tone very quickly.

The next draft can do this for us if we do our homework with those 4-2nd round picks. The 3rd overall pick will be a grade A prospect.

 

[habsgirl5000]

How can we not be rebuilding with all the picks we have had in the last draft and the next draft?

if your rebuilding, you ditch Price, Weber, and Patch all for prospects and picks, and that would only be the beginning of it....also, attempting to sign somebody like Tavares would be out of the question, if your rebuilding you draft and develop a young #1C

 

[Electricity]

can't really answer this question because we are not rebuilding,

all i care about in three years is that Price is gone by then, the sooner the better

I thought it was a "re-tool".

 

[Habs Halifax]

1) Glad your admit your system is just not good.
2) My system is not ''gut''. It's seeing the results in Montreal and in Laval/St. Johns/Hamilton and seeing how unhelpful the call-ups are.

1. I said it's not perfect. Didn't say it's not good.

2. You are seeing the results of a team as a whole and you totally don't understand the gap we have in our line-up from the 2008-2011 draft years. Do you realize that these picks are 25-30 ish today? Only Gallagher to show for those 4 years. It is our biggest problem and it takes years to overcome.

3. You think a guy like Sergachev looks just as good on our team this past year as he did with Tampa. You are likely the same guy that said he might not even make our roster 12 months ago. There were many of the "doomsday" guys saying he won't make our roster prior to the Drouin trade.

4. Hudon, Scherbak, DLR, Juuslen... they all turned out OK and are still young and improving. But wait, we destroyed McCarron's development right? The problem in Laval was we had a bad coach and a losing environment. It was not about "developing" players. You think some other team develops McCarron into a top 6 forward? He was a bad pick just like Tinordi.

 

[Habs Halifax]

if your rebuilding, you ditch Price, Weber, and Patch all for prospects and picks, and that would only be the beginning of it....also, attempting to sign somebody like Tavares would be out of the question, if your rebuilding you draft and develop a young #1C

You don't ditch them. You trade them one by one and you don't have to do it in one season. I would trade in order... Patch, Byron, Petry. Then let the cap rise in the next few years and then entertain trading Weber and Price. They are a few years from 35 yet. No need to ditch them for a Kessel type return where you retain salary.

Personally, I like the idea of a rebuild with Price and Weber leading us. I'm not against trading them but I only do this if the return is solid. It could happen next year, the year after or the year after that. Weber can be traded now and the return would be massive. Price has a NMC so we need to let him get tired of Montreal and ask for a trade. Then he may open his list to several teams. Negotiating a trade for Price is not easy and the NMC sucks!

 

[Harry22]

1. I said it's not perfect. Didn't say it's not good.

2. You are seeing the results of a team as a whole and you totally don't understand the gap we have in our line-up from the 2008-2011 draft years. Do you realize that these picks are 25-30 ish today? Only Gallagher to show for those 4 years. It is our biggest problem and it takes years to overcome.

3. You think a guy like Sergachev looks just as good on our team this past year as he did with Tampa. You are likely the same guy that said he might not even make our roster 12 months ago. There were many of the "doomsday" guys saying he won't make our roster prior to the Drouin trade.

4. Hudon, Scherbak, DLR, Juuslen... they all turned out OK and are still young and improving. But wait, we destroyed McCarron's development right? The problem in Laval was we had a bad coach and a losing environment. It was not about "developing" players. You think some other team develops McCarron into a top 6 forward? He was a bad pick just like Tinordi.

1. I just proved to you how terribly flawed it is. A system that says Alzner is better than McDonagh or Subban is pure garbage.
2. I am done with your arguments that make zero sense. Just watch the results and watch your remaining arguments crumble like it did this past year.

 

[Habs Halifax]

1. I just proved to you how terribly flawed it is. A system that says Alzner is better than McDonagh or Subban is pure garbage.
2. I am done with your arguments that make zero sense. Just watch the results and watch your remaining arguments crumble like it did this past year.

The system doesn't say Alzner is better than McDonagh or Subban. I am done with your argument that makes zero sense.

I have other teams fans base that likes my system and it was posted as an article on this site. So your gut feel opinion and stupid comment that Alzner is better than McDonagh or Subban means nothing. Your stretching for things that are not there and the comebacks get more hilarious each time.

Most realistic people who are not interested in arguing for the sake arguing understand the approach I took with my system and understand it's not perfect. You somehow don't understand cause you refuse to understand. You much rather throw our prospects under the bus cause we don't have 10 grade A type prospects when we typically drafted 25+ in the first round. Talk about being unrealistic.

You want to be confrontational? Right back at you buddy!

 

[ECWHSWI]

We are not rebuilding now? We had 5 top 100 picks last draft and 7 more top 100 picks in this next draft. We also have the 3rd overall pick and 4-2nd round picks.

My god... what more do you want? The first 5 picks of the draft! lol

Do you know how rare it is to have 10 picks in the first 128? There is going to be 3, 4, 5 NHL players from this draft that we take. Cross your fingers there is some talent in the 2nd round!

you have one criteria to determine wether the Habs are rebuilding or not, ONE.

 

[Harry22]

The system doesn't say Alzner is better than McDonagh or Subban. I am done with your argument that makes zero sense.

Read a few posts above. If you made the same work in 2009, your ''system'' says that Alzner was more valuable.