What are the looming issues for Dubas that you believe are key?

[LeafsNation75]

So why did Dubas re-acquire Clarkson's dead LTIR contract to help with resigning Marner, when he already had Horton's bad LTIR contract on the books?

So instead of dealing away Horton uninsured 1 X year LTIR contract at $5.3 mil to save cap space Dubas doubled down to bring in another one on top. He could have saved $5.3 mil cap space removing Horton but instead he decided Marleau @$6.25 mil and healthy was worth his 1st round pick instead to create that needed cap space.

I guess one might need to understand LTIR benefits that do not hurt the club, when those contracts are pushed above the hard cap ceiling upper limit, and replaced with healthy bodies, using their re-reimbursement cap space.

It should also be noted that Dubas traded Marleau on June 22, 2019 and after that it was reported he was about to re-sign Kapanen and Johnsson. It was then on July 23, 2019 that he acquired Clarkson's contract. So he obviously had his reasons for doing it in that timeline.

 

[LeafGrief]

Managing team depth and the salary cap is the most interesting dance, and Dubas has been working it from the minute he took the job. Especially with a stagnant cap it will be imperative to make smart moves that surround our star forwards with capable depth and complimentary players. Ultimately, we may be forced to trade one of the 4, but I think Dubas will be damned if he doesnt try literally everything else he possibly can first.

The slightly more acute/commonly discussed topic is the D. We have two fantastic pillars in our defense with Rielly and Muzzin. But otherwise we have the defense of a rebuilding team. Holl seems like a good depth guy who can handle some top4 minutes, but our other long term pieces of Dermott, Liljegren, and Sandin all need time and room to make mistakes in order to develop properly. If we could stuff them into a time machine and get them back in their primes, we'd have a wicked defense core, but instead we need to navigate being a contending team that wants to ice a competent back-end while keeping the kids with upside. The timeline doesn't quite add up, so it will be interesting to see how Dubas navigates their development and what additions/changes he's willing to make in the D-group.

 

[DANTHEMAN1967]

So babs was our coach when we got 105 points but hes also the reason why we regressed in points the following season??

It had nothing to do with dubas' trades and signings?

Lou + babs = 105 points
Dubas + babs = 100 points
Dubas + babs + keefe = pace of 95 points

There seems to be a common factor when it comes to our regression. Can you figure out which one it is?

Lou + Babs +(Nylander, Matthews & Marner 0n ELCs)=105 points
Dubas + Babs + (Matthews & Marner on ELCs) =100 points
Dubas + Keefe - Babs = 95 points

It's not uncommon for teams whose best players are coming off their ELCs to take a step back before continuing to move forward.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Lou + Babs +(Nylander, Matthews & Marner 0n ELCs)=105 points
Dubas + Babs + (Matthews & Marner on ELCs) =100 points
Dubas + Keefe - Babs = 95 points

It's not uncommon for teams whose best players are coming off their ELCs to take a step back before continuing to move forward.

Don't forget their 7-2 shootout record when they had 105 points and their 0-2 shootout record when they had 100 points.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I voted Andersen, Rielly and adding another top flight defenseman, only because he is essentially doing the rest already. Added depth guys like Mikheyev, Barabanov and Lehtonen for nothing. Added prospects like Robertson, Abramov and Abruzzese without a first round pick. Handling the expansion draft by acquiring Campbell and re-signing Holl/Engvall. If those were key to his success, then he is already quite successful.

Freddy and Rielly are the main priorities. The top flight defenseman may come from within between Dermott, Sandin and Liljegren... However he will likely still look at his options.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

So babs was our coach when we got 105 points but hes also the reason why we regressed in points the following season??

It had nothing to do with dubas' trades and signings?

Lou + babs = 105 points
Dubas + babs = 100 points
Dubas + babs + keefe = pace of 95 points

There seems to be a common factor when it comes to our regression. Can you figure out which one it is?

I am saying this as someone who has a pretty good background in statistics... If you tried to make an argument with this set of logic and support in a stats course, you would fail miserably.

The professor would laugh at you. I have seen it happen to other people before.

 

[Pitaya]

I voted handling Reilly’s contract, getting a defenseman, and (IMO) most importantly moving Marner (voted other options)

Nylander, Matthews, Kapanen is very solid for a core from within , and Marner’s cap being gone allows them to add a scorer to Tavares’ line without needing to pay 10+ per year for it. Also opens cash for Reilly’s far more deserved deal as well as a future contract for another top-end defenseman Im sure Toronto will splurge on

Toronto’s goal scoring wont plummet if they move Marner - yes he produces at a high rate but he also should have never gotten Matthews’ money. Tavares will replace a good chunk of Marner’s production once he gets the other major playmaker off his line

 

[Fogelhund]

I voted handling Reilly’s contract, getting a defenseman, and (IMO) most importantly moving Marner (voted other options)

Nylander, Matthews, Kapanen is very solid for a core from within , and Marner’s cap being gone allows them to add a scorer to Tavares’ line without needing to pay 10+ per year for it. Also opens cash for Reilly’s far more deserved deal as well as a future contract for another top-end defenseman Im sure Toronto will splurge on

Toronto’s goal scoring wont plummet if they move Marner - yes he produces at a high rate but he also should have never gotten Matthews’ money. Tavares will replace a good chunk of Marner’s production once he gets the other major playmaker off his line

Rielly's contract isn't a concern until July 2022, and contract negotiations may be conducted under different realities, than there was in the past. It isn't improbable that the cap will be flat, or even decreasing in the future, if we end up with a long recession, which I'd say is probable. That's just too far into the future to even know that it will be Dubas doing the negotiations. We have an offseason, and two full seasons before we get to that, and need to ice a contending team over that period... too far into the future.

Certainly shoring up the defense is something that needs to be addressed this off season.

Most importantly moving Marner? Look, if you could move Marner for a great return, I wouldn't be opposed to it, but to suggest it's the most important and needed move is well off base.

 

[MapleLeafs9]

Definitely Rielly and Andersen contracts. Though I feel Andersen is as good as gone after next season. Rielly is more important to sign IMO and there just won't be any room for Freddy, probably barely any room for Rielly. This is one of those types of situations now that our best players are all on massive contracts that we have to hope good drafting comes through and some players on ELC's can step up to buy us 2-3 years. Really hoping players like Sandin, Liljegren, Woll and Scott are the real deals.

 

[ShaneFalco]

I have very little faith dubas will be able to make this a competitive team due to the fact he has put us into such a poor position with his awful contracts.

No team has won a cup with 1 player making over 10 mil. How long until a team with 3 wins a cup?

Each season dubas has been in charge we have lost roughly 5 points. Let's hope he can change that trend for next season or he had better be gone

What awful contracts? He got rid of them in PM and Zaitsev. Marner is overpaid, but it's far from awful.
The 105 point season we had decent goaltending and barely any injuries. You can't just look at points only. Coaches have a shelf-life, it was clear babcock's had expired

 

[deletethis]

I'd say Rielly has about as much of a chance of re-signing with the Leafs before free agency as Gardiner or JVR did. He's going to be priced out of consideration plus there are going to be viable substitutions to take the place of the player.

 

[Fogelhund]

I'd say Rielly has about as much of a chance of re-signing with the Leafs before free agency as Gardiner or JVR did. He's going to be priced out of consideration plus there are going to be viable substitutions to take the place of the player.

Understanding, in a flat cap world, or cap that drops, there isn't going to be money for raises for anyone moving forward. Shorter term contracts, with little inflation is likely going to be the new norm, until economies move forward again, enough for the cap to go up... that could be anywhere from five to ten years from now...

 

[Mess]

Most importantly moving Marner? Look, if you could move Marner for a great return, I wouldn't be opposed to it, but to suggest it's the most important and needed move is well off base.

With a flat salary cap and Marner's pricey contract it will perhaps have reduced value in trade as not everyone wants or can afford an $11 mil cap hit during these new times. Keep in mind all that up front guaranteed money in his deal where he is getting paid $16 mil in real US$ this year (the highest in the NHL) and next year he gets $15 mil (with a $10.9 mil cap hit). Its the actual money not even so much the cap hit the smaller market teams simply couldn't stomach. IMO

Toronto has the 3 highest paid players in the NHL in actual $$ with #1) Marner @ $16 mil #2) Matthews @ $15.9 mil and #3) Tavares @ $15.9 mil (https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2020/salary)

Remember when Leafs had to eat a big Kessel signing bonus first, and then picked up 5 years of $1.2 mil cap retention for their best player putting up nearly 40 goals and PPG stats annually?

The key might be to offset it against the return in Cap coming back in the terms of top 2-3 Dman. But I have my doubts a lot of teams would be willing to part with a top pairing Dman for a play making winger. I think IF the Leafs are forced to trade a winger while keeping their 2 X #1C its much more likely its Nylander that is dealt for help on D, and since Marner is the better player it also keeps the Leafs stronger in the process.

 

[4thline]

With a flat salary cap and Marner's pricey contract it will perhaps have reduced value in trade as not everyone wants or can afford an $11 mil cap hit during these new times. Keep in mind all that up front guaranteed money in his deal where he is getting paid $16 mil in real US$ this year (the highest in the NHL) and next year he gets $15 mil (with a $10.9 mil cap hit). Its the actual money not even so much the cap hit the smaller market teams simply couldn't stomach. IMO

No.

2020 Bonus money has been paid out on schedule. If we were to entertain the idea of trading him Marner would cost a team 700k in cash next season, and an average of ~7m per year for 5 years of service.
In cash terms he's a steal.

 

[deletethis]

Understanding, in a flat cap world, or cap that drops, there isn't going to be money for raises for anyone moving forward. Shorter term contracts, with little inflation is likely going to be the new norm, until economies move forward again, enough for the cap to go up... that could be anywhere from five to ten years from now...

Everything's relative. The number that Rielly can theoretically demand may not be as high as once projected but the Leafs' ability to pay the reduced demand is also affected.

 

[LeafsNation75]

Toronto has the 3 highest paid players in the NHL in actual $$ with #1) Marner @ $16 mil #2) Matthews @ $15.9 mil and #3) Tavares @ $15.9 mil (https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2020/salary)

Do those numbers matter because it's what their contracts total after you include their bonuses, since we know that isn't what their AAV is in terms of the salary cap.

Remember when Leafs had to eat a big Kessel signing bonus first, and then picked up 5 years of $1.2 mil cap retention for their best player putting up nearly 40 goals and PPG stats annually?

You need to remember at that time among Kessel's approved team trade list only Pittsburgh was willing to trade for him and Shanahan didn't mind retaining the $1.2 million of his contract to trade him.

 

[4thline]

Another big complication is the short term future of development leagues. Even if we assume the NHL will run under a tighter cap there's no guarantee the A will be able to. That has big time roster ramifications for us next year, as neither Sandin nor Liljegren would be harmed by another year playing heavy minutes in the A and coming up for long term injuries, but both would be harmed by any large amount of pressbox duty.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

I have very little faith dubas will be able to make this a competitive team due to the fact he has put us into such a poor position with his awful contracts.

No team has won a cup with 1 player making over 10 mil. How long until a team with 3 wins a cup?

Each season dubas has been in charge we have lost roughly 5 points. Let's hope he can change that trend for next season or he had better be gone

What awful contracts? There isn't one contract on this team that we couldn't trade right now. Overpaying two superstars by maybe a combined 2M isn't awful.

Chicago won a cup in 2015 with 2 players making 10M after they signed their extension in 2014.

So babs was our coach when we got 105 points but hes also the reason why we regressed in points the following season??

It had nothing to do with dubas' trades and signings?

Lou + babs = 105 points
Dubas + babs = 100 points
Dubas + babs + keefe = pace of 95 points

There seems to be a common factor when it comes to our regression. Can you figure out which one it is?

The regression this year is mostly on Babs. It was obvious that the team quit on him. He should have been gone after last season. The man was stubborn and made some pretty bad decisions.

What trades and signings made us regress? Muzzin is a big physical 2 way D man that was a #2 on a 2 time cup winning team. Tavares is a ppg top 15 center in the league. Mikheyev was a big forward that was on pace for about 50 points in his rookie year on a league minimum contract. Kerfoot wasn't anything special but is an adequate 3rd liner who didn't exactly hurt the team.
Barrie was a cheaper replacement for Gardiner who has been a consistent 50 pt Dman in the league. He didn't work out the way we expected to start the season but that appears to be on Babs as well. When Keefe took over, he put up a ton of pts and looked like the player we thought we were getting.
Ceci wasn't good and was overpaid but at least it was only a 1 year contract.

This team lost a lot of man games due to Dermott being out for the first 10 or so games of the season due to a shoulder surgery and then not looking like himself when he was back. Tavares and Marner both missed games. We were missing our best 2 Dmen for a good portion of the season as well as Ceci so we had 2 rookie Dmen and a tweener in Marincin having to fill in big minutes. Our starting goalie also played about 2 months worth of sub par goaltending. What part of any of this is on the GM?

The only thing that we can say is on Dubas this year for losing points in the standings is the backup goalie situation.

 

[kb]

What awful contracts? There isn't one contract on this team that we couldn't trade right now. Overpaying two superstars by maybe a combined 2M isn't awful.

Chicago won a cup in 2015 with 2 players making 10M after they signed their extension in 2014.


The regression this year is mostly on Babs. It was obvious that the team quit on him. He should have been gone after last season. The man was stubborn and made some pretty bad decisions.

What trades and signings made us regress? Muzzin is a big physical 2 way D man that was a #2 on a 2 time cup winning team. Tavares is a ppg top 15 center in the league. Mikheyev was a big forward that was on pace for about 50 points in his rookie year on a league minimum contract. Kerfoot wasn't anything special but is an adequate 3rd liner who didn't exactly hurt the team.
Barrie was a cheaper replacement for Gardiner who has been a consistent 50 pt Dman in the league. He didn't work out the way we expected to start the season but that appears to be on Babs as well. When Keefe took over, he put up a ton of pts and looked like the player we thought we were getting.
Ceci wasn't good and was overpaid but at least it was only a 1 year contract.

This team lost a lot of man games due to Dermott being out for the first 10 or so games of the season due to a shoulder surgery and then not looking like himself when he was back. Tavares and Marner both missed games. We were missing our best 2 Dmen for a good portion of the season as well as Ceci so we had 2 rookie Dmen and a tweeter in Marincin having to fill in big minutes. Our starting goalie also played about 2 months worth of sup par goaltending. What part of any of this is on the GM?

The only thing that we can say is on Dubas this year for losing points in the standings is the backup goalie situation.

Well said. Even with the backup situation, he kept Sparks (hated that, but understood the reasoning), and when that wasn't working, he brought in Hutch, who was much better to finish off that season. When Hutch got off to a slow start, he was given some opportunity to work through it, and when that didn't happen, he acquired Campbell.

He's made a trade both years for a backup.....sometimes players just don't work out.

 

[Mess]

Do those numbers matter because it's what their contracts total after you include their bonuses, since we know that isn't what their AAV is in terms of the salary cap.

You need to remember at that time among Kessel's approved team trade list only Pittsburgh was willing to trade for him and Shanahan didn't mind retaining the $1.2 million of his contract to trade him.

The actual money matters more than the cap hit to a some teams that play on a budget and closer to the cap floor than the ceiling as they simply couldn't afford to paying out $15 mil in real dollars in a big lump some bonus due to liquidity of funds like in Marner's case. Some teams don't even have a $8 mil player on the roster never mind one that you would have to cash out $15 mil in actual US$. These upfront loaded contracts are basically for the rich and famous teams as a way to lure talent by flexing their financial muscle. The problem with the rich teams is they're always spending freely but also near the cap ceiling in AAV also so for them it wouldn't be about the money but rather the cap space to absorb Marner's $11 mil AAV.

Dubas and Hunter were interim GMs during the Kessel debacle and trade on July 1 2015, after paying him his $4 mil signing bonus first, and agreeing to 6 years of $1.2 mil retained salary for one of the better goal scorers in the game. At which point Shanny had seen enough to realize they weren't ready and hired Lou Lamoriello a few weeks later on July 23rd as Leafs GM. They ended up gifting the Pens on their way to winning Cups thanks to Leafs.

I don't think the Leafs plan on dealing Marner any time soon and believe its more likely they deal Nylander for cap space or to upgrade the defense as his cap hit, and because the Leafs have already paid Nylander $21 mil of his $45 mil contract which included paying him $12 mil last year and $9 mil this year include ($20 mil in bonuses). That means any team that would acquire him they will only be on the hook for $24 mil $$ over course of his remaining 4 years whereas Marner would be due a $15 mil signing bonus upfront in year #1 for them.

 

[Golden_Jet]

What awful contracts

Chicago won a cup in 2015 with 2 players making 10M after they signed their extension in 2014.


.

Chicago won the cup in June 2015
The contracts kicked in October 2015, so no they weren’t making over 10 million when they won their last cup.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Chicago won the cup in June 2015
The contracts kicked in October 2015, so no they weren’t making over 10 million when they won their last cup.

100% accurate. Hawks did their damage before those contracts kicked in. Leafs paid their stars crazy money before they won anything.

I loved all 3 of those Blackhawk teams for different reasons.

 

[kb]

100% accurate. Hawks did their damage before those contracts kicked in. Leafs paid their stars crazy money before they won anything.

I loved all 3 of those Blackhawk teams for different reasons.

Not sure I agree with this take. The equivalent identical second contracts with today's cap, the Hawks would have been paying them in excess of $9 million each in todays cap landscape.

And that was back when the second RFA discount contract was still an option.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

Chicago won the cup in June 2015
The contracts kicked in October 2015, so no they weren’t making over 10 million when they won their last cup.

They signed their extensions on July 9, 2014. Would the extension not kick in October of 2014?

 

[Golden_Jet]

They signed their extensions on July 9, 2014. Would the extension not kick in October of 2014?

No, you can sign 1 year earlier like Matthews did