Prospect Info: Way too early 2020 draft options

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I'd put my money on the June draft even if I don't like it. Could wait like it should, but Bettman and Daly putting things out there like this means it's pretty likely to happen. Daly also apparently mentioned tv networks being behind it. They are seduced by the recent NFL ratings even if they likely won't see the same kind of boost.

They need a supermajority of owners to approve it in order for a June draft to be approved. Bettman and Daly's power are not absolute.

 

[DaveG]

I'd put my money on the June draft even if I don't like it. Could wait like it should, but Bettman and Daly putting things out there like this means it's pretty likely to happen. Daly also apparently mentioned tv networks being behind it. They are seduced by the recent NFL ratings even if they likely won't see the same kind of boost.

I'd also say it's likely that the season's done. Global Pandemic breaks its championship drought in less time than it took the Cubs.

As much as they talk of wanting to finish the regular season I don't see that happening. I see maybe an 8-9 play-in game in each conference, maybe a 7-10 as well (sorry NYR and Arizona) if we even do a playoffs but I don't see a good plan for that either that would allow us to be done by with significant enough prep time for the next season.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I'd also say it's likely that the season's done. Global Pandemic breaks its championship drought in less time than it took the Cubs.

As much as they talk of wanting to finish the regular season I don't see that happening. I see maybe an 8-9 play-in game in each conference, maybe a 7-10 as well (sorry NYR and Arizona) if we even do a playoffs but I don't see a good plan for that either that would allow us to be done by with significant enough prep time for the next season.

I don't agree with you. It's too easy to be pessimistic when you live with certain people, but there's way too much interest from both the players and owners for the season not to resume in a couple of months. Several states are already tapering down lockdowns and there's growing resentment among sports fans for some league, any league really, to resume play. It could be a huge opportunity for the NHL to get a "first-in-the-door" TV ratings boost from across the sports world, and at least in my personal opinion, it would be amazing for the American and Canadian psyche to finally have some sports to talk about.

 

[GoldiFox]

June Draft is fine with me. I doubt the Canes will find a much better 1st round slot than #19 between them and Toronto. Especially if the end of the regular season will be played inside divisions.

I don't see why the Canes/Toronto pick would be affected in a June draft. It wouldn't be possible for them to finish with a top-10 pick under their proposed rules. I don't see the Canes wanting to push the pick to next year given their own 1st belongs to NYR.

 

[A Star is Burns]

They need a supermajority of owners to approve it in order for a June draft to be approved. Bettman and Daly's power are not absolute.

Guess we'll see. If the networks are offering something behind the scenes that equals money, that vote won't be as hard to get as you think.

I do agree that while it's possible there won't be any games that I see the season/playoffs finishing in some fashion. There really has been too much momentum for a while now and they've got a fair amount of runway since they are willing to start next season in December.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

There's just gotta be a shit load of tv money at stake right now. People will watch any sports. People are watching marbles racing on YouTube.

Also: people are packing Costco and Home Depot every weekend. Let's be honest; we're not nearly as locked down as we like to claim we are.

I'm honestly surprised that the NBA hasn't already figured this out; their logistics are way easier.

Once they can figure out how to test players, how to isolate them if they're positive, and find some locations where they can play some tournaments, sports are back on.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

There's just gotta be a shit load of tv money at stake right now. People will watch any sports. People are watching marbles racing on YouTube.

Also: people are packing Costco and Home Depot every weekend. Let's be honest; we're not nearly as locked down as we like to claim we are.

I'm honestly surprised that the NBA hasn't already figured this out; their logistics are way easier.

Once they can figure out how to test players, how to isolate them if they're positive, and find some locations where they can play some tournaments, sports are back on.

Right now the only sports on TV is Top Chef, which is great but only once a week.

 

[DaveG]

There's just gotta be a shit load of tv money at stake right now. People will watch any sports. People are watching marbles racing on YouTube.

Also: people are packing Costco and Home Depot every weekend. Let's be honest; we're not nearly as locked down as we like to claim we are.

I'm honestly surprised that the NBA hasn't already figured this out; their logistics are way easier.

Once they can figure out how to test players, how to isolate them if they're positive, and find some locations where they can play some tournaments, sports are back on.

Reading over the thread on BoH about the June draft idea before the season is finished, this seems to be exactly the case. Sportsnet and NBC see the opportunity for a serious payday due to a lack of live sports coverage currently.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Reading over the thread on BoH about the June draft idea before the season is finished, this seems to be exactly the case. Sportsnet and NBC see the opportunity for a serious payday due to a lack of live sports coverage currently.

I bet that NBC would be even more in favor of an earlier season resumption over a June draft. It's misleading to interpret having the draft in June or not as a binary choice. Can you imagine the ratings for an early NHL season resumption? The draft's ratings would pale in comparison.

 

[DaveG]

I'm sure they would be. I'm also sure they're being realistic about that and realizing the logistics would be a late June start... at best.

 

[Lempo]

June draft but ineligible until 20-21 season start? Although anyone that has a chance to make the roster would benefit from the 1-3 months of practice.

It would be bad asset management to sign a 2020 draftee onto an ELC for the season 2019-20, even if said season went a bit overlong.

 

[GoldiFox]

Does anyone know why the Canes current 1st round pick (via Toronto) keeps getting referenced as #20 in some places? By points % Toronto is tied with Columbus #18 and #19 (0.579). Where is the #20 coming from?

Maybe that is Toronto's spot if they revert to 68 games?

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

With the 10-35 ratings all over the place, If Quinn or Zary are there at 19/20 then I go for it.

Try to acquire more if our guy falls or those two are gone.

my 2nd round likes are:
LW Greig
RHD Cotton
LHD Wallinder
C Peterson
LHD Jurmo

 

[emptyNedder]

With the 10-35 ratings all over the place, If Quinn or Zary are there at 19/20 then I go for it.

Try to acquire more if our guy falls or those two are gone.

my 2nd round likes are:
LW Greig
RHD Cotton
LHD Wallinder
C Peterson
LHD Jurmo

You made my original point better than I. Quinn or Zary should be targets—as Dave G has mentioned one or two good players always seem to drop, if they are gone than trading down in this draft looks good as most analysts have mixed rankings from 18-45.
I think the real value in getting 2 (or 3) 2nd rounders is that without the WJC-18 some of the European players are likely ranked lower than they would be after a standout performance.

I would take one of Peterka/Hirvonen/Reichel/Chromiak at 32 or 33, then target Torgersson or Niederbach if available at 50.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

You made my original point better than I. Quinn or Zary should be targets—as Dave G has mentioned one or two good players always seem to drop, if they are gone than trading down in this draft looks good as most analysts have mixed rankings from 18-45.
I think the real value in getting 2 (or 3) 2nd rounders is that without the WJC-18 some of the European players are likely ranked lower than they would be after a standout performance.

I would take one of Peterka/Hirvonen/Reichel/Chromiak at 32 or 33, then target Torgersson or Niederbach if available at 50.

those are good 2nd rounder choices. I like Jurmo as a prototypical Finn 2nd round pick. He is big defender who has studied with the smaller Finnish defenders. Supposedly his offense and mobility has really improved. He has gone from a 5th round projection to a early 3rd round projection since season has started.

Neighbors is the first rounder i watch. If dropping, I trade down and get him. Lapierre too. The kid and his many concussions have taken him from a 7-10 pick to an uncertain projection. If we get a 3rd, 2nd rounder I would take him. The lack of any hockey will hurt hos ability to show he is fine.

 

[emptyNedder]

those are good 2nd rounder choices. I like Jurmo as a prototypical Finn 2nd round pick. He is big defender who has studied with the smaller Finnish defenders. Supposedly his offense and mobility has really improved. He has gone from a 5th round projection to a early 3rd round projection since season has started.

I was on the Jurmo bandwagon early. I think he is now an early 2nd projection (was actually ranked 26 in the most recent ranking by Larry Fisher). My concern is that he is likely gone by 40 and if the Canes mindset is to not take a defender with their first pick, then Jurmo is off the table.
If he is around whenever the Canes second pick happens, then I think we would both be thrilled to hear his name called.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I was on the Jurmo bandwagon early. I think he is now an early 2nd projection (was actually ranked 26 in the most recent ranking by Larry Fisher). My concern is that he is likely gone by 40 and if the Canes mindset is to not take a defender with their first pick, then Jurmo is off the table.
If he is around whenever the Canes second pick happens, then I think we would both be thrilled to hear his name called.

His projections are all over the place. I think he may be available at 40 unless everyone goes D crazy.

• NHL Central Scouting: 20th (among EU Skaters)
• Future Considerations: 81st
• The Draft Analyst: 35th
• The Hockey Writers (Bell): 89th
• The Hockey Writers (Forbes): 68th
• The Hockey Writers (Fisher): 26thV
• 
  Dynamic Finnish defenceman Joni Jurmo has been an intriguing player to follow over the last few months as two draft experts, THW’s own Larry Fisher and The Draft Analyst’s Steve Kournianos say that he will be an early second-round pick or even have his name called on opening day. This was after NHL Central Scouting and several other outlets including THW’s Bell and Forbes had him ranked in the third round or lower. Though, when you read more about him, you can understand why Fisher and Kournianos are so high on him. In fact, you can now include me on that list as well.

 

[Finlandia WOAT]

Reading over the thread on BoH about the June draft idea before the season is finished, this seems to be exactly the case. Sportsnet and NBC see the opportunity for a serious payday due to a lack of live sports coverage currently.

Have the NHL pick the compromise they deem most fair. If the teams can't reach an agreement it'll at least force the teams to present options that aren't too crazy lest they go too high and lose it entirely.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I don't agree with you. It's too easy to be pessimistic when you live with certain people, but there's way too much interest from both the players and owners for the season not to resume in a couple of months. Several states are already tapering down lockdowns and there's growing resentment among sports fans for some league, any league really, to resume play. It could be a huge opportunity for the NHL to get a "first-in-the-door" TV ratings boost from across the sports world, and at least in my personal opinion, it would be amazing for the American and Canadian psyche to finally have some sports to talk about.

There's just gotta be a shit load of tv money at stake right now. People will watch any sports. People are watching marbles racing on YouTube.

Also: people are packing Costco and Home Depot every weekend. Let's be honest; we're not nearly as locked down as we like to claim we are.

I'm honestly surprised that the NBA hasn't already figured this out; their logistics are way easier.

Once they can figure out how to test players, how to isolate them if they're positive, and find some locations where they can play some tournaments, sports are back on.

NHL execs are undoubtedly aware that they could make a lot of money with an early restart.

But here's the thing: the last time the NHL decided a pandemic shouldn't stop the playoffs, the Finals ended up being cancelled halfway through a tied series, and a player died.

If anything remotely close to that were to happen again it would be not national, but global news. It would expose the league to an absolutely crushing level of negative press, not to mention legal liability.

That's why the guaranteed ratings aren't enough of a pull. The league desperately wants to fulfill those TV and sponsorship contracts, they desperately want to get that HRR to stabilize the cap. But the potential for a generational black-eye, Bettman & Co. going down in history as having made one of the worst decisions of the entire pandemic, outweighs the opportunity to grab a quick ratings boost.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

NHL execs are undoubtedly aware that they could make a lot of money with an early restart.

But here's the thing: the last time the NHL decided a pandemic shouldn't stop the playoffs, the Finals ended up being cancelled halfway through a tied series, and a player died.

If anything remotely close to that were to happen again it would be not national, but global news. It would expose the league to an absolutely crushing level of negative press, not to mention legal liability.

That's why the guaranteed ratings aren't enough of a pull. The league desperately wants to fulfill those TV and sponsorship contracts, they desperately want to get that HRR to stabilize the cap. But the potential for a generational black-eye, Bettman & Co. going down in history as having made one of the worst decisions of the entire pandemic, outweighs the opportunity to grab a quick ratings boost.

OK, sure, but a few counterpoints:

1. The Bundesliga will be playing in mid-May. The EPL will be playing in mid-June. The likelihood of the NBA playing continues to go up. The NHL will likely have plenty of models to follow by June, and ultimately, the pressure of watching those other leagues compete and bring in cash.

2. The 1918-1919 pandemic was far more severe for young people -- not that it's a contest, but it's a relevant data point. It targeted young healthy people in their primes, which the coronavirus does not.

3. The 1919 Stanley Cup was played after the Canadiens took a cross-country train to Seattle, to play in front of full crowds, after the first wave of the Spanish flu had largely passed, in conditions that were 100 years more primitive than conditions now. Our ability to trace, isolate, and contain, with sufficient testing and a contained enough environment, is *far* better than it was then.

(Also, the NHL "didn't decide a pandemic shouldn't stop the playoffs", and it wasn't cancelled halfway through the series -- it was literally cancelled 5 hours before what would have been the deciding game, and only because Montreal couldn't even ice a full team.)

I'm not saying there aren't a lot of challenges, and I'm not saying that hockey is definitely coming back this year. I am saying that the 1919 analogy probably isn't the best analogy.

 

[tarheelhockey]

OK, sure, but a few counterpoints:

1. The Bundesliga will be playing in mid-May. The EPL will be playing in mid-June. The likelihood of the NBA playing continues to go up. The NHL will likely have plenty of models to follow by June, and ultimately, the pressure of watching those other leagues compete and bring in cash.

The question is what happens if one of these leagues experiences an outbreak. What happens if, in all seriousness, Lebron James gets coronavirus and loses lung capacity that impacts the rest of his career? It's one thing to attempt the jump, it's another thing to stick the landing.

2. The 1918-1919 pandemic was far more severe for young people -- not that it's a contest, but it's a relevant data point. It targeted young healthy people in their primes, which the coronavirus does not.

It still puts people in their 30s in the hospital. The concern in this case is less about an actual death, more about a whole team getting slammed with the virus 2 weeks into a playoff. At that point you pretty much have to call the whole thing off, which sets a bunch of other unwanted dominoes in motion.

3. The 1919 Stanley Cup was played after the Canadiens took a cross-country train to Seattle, to play in front of full crowds, after the first wave of the Spanish flu had largely passed, in conditions that were 100 years more primitive than conditions now. Our ability to trace, isolate, and contain, with sufficient testing and a contained enough environment, is *far* better than it was then.

It takes one mistake. Just one.

(Also, the NHL "didn't decide a pandemic shouldn't stop the playoffs", and it wasn't cancelled halfway through the series -- it was literally cancelled 5 hours before what would have been the deciding game, and only because Montreal couldn't even ice a full team.)

I'm aware of the 1919 circumstances. We talk about Joe Hall dying, but very few people have heard of Hamby Shore -- the Ottawa Senator who also died of the flu in October. The NHL most definitely did make a conscious choice to go forward with its season once they felt the outbreak had peaked, then ran headlong into the next wave that occurred once everything re-opened. There was known to be an outbreak in the PNW, and again the NHL made a conscious choice to forge ahead with a playoff series at the epicenter of that outbreak.

The Spanish flu incubation period implies that the Habs most likely didn't pick up the virus on the cross-country train trip, but locally as they came into Seattle. Again, most people think about Joe Hall dying as if he was the only one who had to fight for his life. Their coach, George Kennedy, barely survived that week and actually did end of dying of complications 2 years later. And while no definite link has ever been drawn, it is significant that Georges Vezina died of tuberculosis 4 years after that. Several other players were hospitalized or quarantined. It could have been worse.

This all boils down to a question of what the NHL is willing to risk in order to run its business. If this re-opening period leads to a resurgence, and that resurgence makes its way into a dressing room, we're talking about potential consequences ranging from a sudden halt to the entire operation, to career-altering impacts on the players, to 60-year-old coaches and trainers being at a very high risk of fatality. These are not abstract risks. In 1919 the NHL gambled with lives and lost. That's a long time ago, but a virus is a virus and it will not be more forgiving in 2020.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

The question is what happens if one of these leagues experiences an outbreak. What happens if, in all seriousness, Lebron James gets coronavirus and loses lung capacity that impacts the rest of his career? It's one thing to attempt the jump, it's another thing to stick the landing.

I suspect that the level of examination that these players and coaches and staff will go through, on a daily basis, will be orders of magnitude more intense than Regular Folks (and only because, though it may cost millions, it will net billions.) One of the reasons that regular folks get into trouble is that they go to the hospital only after they hit serious hypoxia because they feel fine otherwise ("happy hypoxia"); I'm sure athletes will be in isolation the second they get a daily positive test, or the second their blood oxygen levels dip below 90% of expected.

But we'll see. Bundesliga first, and then we'll go from there.

 

[tarheelhockey]

I suspect that the level of examination that these players and coaches and staff will go through, on a daily basis, will be orders of magnitude more intense than Regular Folks (and only because, though it may cost millions, it will net billions.) One of the reasons that regular folks get into trouble is that they go to the hospital only after they hit serious hypoxia because they feel fine otherwise ("happy hypoxia"); I'm sure athletes will be in isolation the second they get a daily positive test, or the second their blood oxygen levels dip below 90% of expected.

But we'll see. Bundesliga first, and then we'll go from there.

I agree. If they can truly bubble-boy every single aspect of a site then there's no reason it can't be pulled off. Bundesliga will be the guinea pig as to whether it can be done without implausible restrictions.

 

[emptyNedder]

Wow—here I was wasting time trying to predict which 17-year-olds will become passable NHLers and y'all hijacked it with mortality tables from 1918.

The virus is worse than I thought.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

Seattle is relevant to hockey every 100 years, it seems.