Prospect Info: Way too early 2020 draft options

Discussion in 'Carolina Hurricanes' started by 42 jerks, Oct 3, 2019.

  1. AndreiThreeK HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    What I believe is the comprehensive possibilities of Carolina's 1st round pick as far as NYR is concerned. The Canes end up with zero picks only in scenario's 3 (if Toronto wins the lottery), scenario 5, and scenario 7

    Scenario 1: Carolina and Toronto both win their play-in series. NYR gets the worse of the #16-31 pick. Canes pick #16-31
    Scenario 2: Carolina loses their play-in series and Toronto wins their play-in series. NYR gets Toronto's pick #16-31 pick. Canes pick #11-15
    Scenario 3: Toronto loses their play-in series and Carolina wins their play-in series. NYR gets Carolina's #16-31 pick. Canes pick #11-15 unless Toronto wins the draft lottery
    Scenario 4: Toronto and Carolina lose their play-in series. Neither win the Draft lottery. NYR gets the worse of two undetermined #11-16 picks. Canes pick #11-15
    Scenario 5: Toronto and Carolina lose their play-in series. Toronto wins the Draft lottery. NYR gets Carolina's #13-15 pick. Canes end up with no 1st.
    Scenario 6: Toronto and Carolina lose their play-in series. Carolina wins the Draft lottery. NYR gets Toronto's #11-15 pick. Canes pick #1-3.
    Scenario 7: Toronto and Carolina lose their play-in series. Carolina and Toronto both win the Draft lottery. NYR gets pick either #2 or #3. Canes end up with no 1st.
     
  2. Gocanes0506 Registered User

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    If #7 happens, holy crap TD will have wished he could have kept DW on year to year contract.
    Not getting a number 1 this season will suck. Next year’s draft isnt highly regarded.
     
  3. TBF1972 Registered User

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    Do you have the specifics about the condition of the Skjei trade?

    I came up with a similar scenario:
    Carolina has traded the later of their own and Toronto's 1st round pick to the NYR (for Skjei). The Toronto pick is Top 10 protected. Carolina plays the Rangers in the play-in. If both Carolina and Toronto lose the play-in game and both win the lottery, it's possible that Toronto keeps its Top 3 pick, while Carolina hands its own Top 3 pick to the Rangers, which beat them in the play-in. Ouch.

    Even more interesting would be the scenario, if their own pick slots above the Toronto pick, e.g Carolina wins the first overall pick, Toronto the second. The protection on the Toronto pick, moves the first from 2020 to to 2021. The condition from the Skjei trade has Carolina giving up the later of the two first round pick they owned at that moment. The later would be the Toronto pick, which isn't available in 2020. The Rangers definitively would want a 2020 first, as agreed in the trade. Carolina would insist on giving them Toronto 2021 first instead. I really wonder, if the trade details did cover for a situation like this.
     
  4. WreckingCrew Registered User

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    Given the Canes luck, and that this would be the most Canes thing to ever happen...I'm almost prepared for it to happen
     
  5. Lempo We are on a pause! Sponsor

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    This is what CapFriendly says:

    2020 conditional 1st round pick* (CAR - #21)
    *Conditions: NY Rangers will receive the later (or lower) of either the Carolina or Toronto 2020 1st round picks


    But I think there was variations on the wording/content reported at the time, and I don't think this necessarily is the official one.

    I think the most legalese sounding one had a line "if Carolina has more than one first round picks" or something like that with no mention to Carolina or Toronto pick specifically. There probably was fan shenanigans under discussion to trade for a very late 1st pick and give NYR that.
     
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    I believe it is the 2020 pick. Canes should have put top-3 protection even if it sounded ridiculous at the time - lesson learned I guess.

    In the very weird scenario where Carolina won #1 and Toronto won #2 or #3 one would think that the Canes could at least recoup some assets by trading Toronto #1 for #2/3 + assets and then giving NYR the later pick. It would suck to give Toronto Lafrenier but it would suck even more to give NYR him.

    It's not worth really worrying about with such a low % chance of happening. Maybe come June 26 no placeholders win the lottery and the issue is done. Then we can look forward to giving NYR the Canes #31 pick while the Canes pick with Toronto's #12-15.
     
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  7. TBF1972 Registered User

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    I wish you and your team all the best for the play-in, play-offs and/or lottery.

    It would be great to have a source, where the official wording of the conditions and protections for draft picks are listed.
     
  8. Lempo We are on a pause! Sponsor

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    Once it clears out what pick will be gotten by whom I don't think we have the option to make any maneuvers any more, but the pick will be transferred at that point.
     
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    Everything I have read says that NYR gets the later of the Canes pick between their own and Toronto's. I don't see why the traded pick would be solidified at the lottery unless there was language in the NYR/CAR deal specifically laying out that timeline. As the Canes acquiring Toronto's pick and giving that to NYR would still fulfill the language that has been released. That's the problem with building conditional deals on top of conditional deals, maybe that language is already laid out and we just haven't seen it.
     
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  10. Lempo We are on a pause! Sponsor

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    If there's no condition the traded pick transfers immediately. If there is a condition, the traded pick transfers once the condition clears out and the uncertainty disappears.

    The acceptability of the trade will be examined by the NHL Central Registry at the time of the trade and the conditional pick will be encumbered to the team that will conditionally get it. So, the pick stops to be full property of the original team once they have conditionally traded it and the trade will get finalized if and when the conditions get met. You can't do further business that would affect on the value of the encumbered pick, and certainly not in order to specifically do that.

    There is also no "we see what we can spare you the week before the draft" nor further negotiations on the time of the pre-agreed transfer of a pick. The trade was made when it was made and will be iffy only as long as provided in the original terms and conditions of the trade.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2020
  11. WreckingCrew Registered User

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    That's my understanding, the Rangers get whichever of the CAR/TOR pick is lowest AND available, so the Canes effectively can't trade them until the conditions are met (at which point the pick is already transferred). If we acquire another 1st round pick, then that one is just ours, it wasn't there at the time of the trade and would be ineligible to meet the conditions. Otherwise what would stop the Canes from going and acquiring the #31 pick on trade-day and saying "here you go Rangers"? Just like Toronto can't go and trade EITHER of their '20 or '21 first round picks until the end of this year when we get whichever one meets the conditions. I think there's too much "wishful thinking" scenarios going on here where we magically screw the Rangers or something
     
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    We would need to know the exact wordings of the conditions to be sure what will happen. We do know the condition of the TOR-CAR trade: once we know that TOR 2020 1st won't be top 10 it transfers to us. Once we know that TOR 2020 1st is top 10, TOR 2021 1st will transfer to us.

    The wording of the CAR-NYR trade may not have "Toronto" specifically mentioned anywhere (to avoid certain problems) and it may be that (only) our 2020 1st is currently encumberer for NYR. It is possible from that one reported wording that our latest 1st (if we have many) will go to NYR no matter whose it is and that we possibly could hedge it a bit it by getting a probable late pick from someone before the condition clears out.
     
    Last edited: May 27, 2020
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  13. Ja Sports Registered User

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    New hype reel for Quinton Byfield :) this one was my favourite to make so far

    Hit the like or subscribe button if you guys enjoy!

    More videos and players are on the way

     
  14. 42 jerks Not seeking rents

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    If you have any interest in the Canes draft, this is great fun.

    I traded #19 for 31, 36, and 67. This was the haul:
    Chromiak
    Reichel
    Niederbach
    Neighbors
    Wiesblatt
    Daemon Hunt (one of the D who PSF likes)
    Finley
    Seeley (PSF's highest scorer)
    Pederson
    Vikman (6'3" Swedish goalie, Canes don't have one developing in Sweden)
    Ratzlaff (6'3" RD)
     
  15. WreckingCrew Registered User

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    I know next to nothing about most of those guys but recognize a lot of the names (thanks EHM), therefore I'm going to say that looks like a great draft haul! (I'm now an expert!)
     
  16. Gocanes0506 Registered User

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    Or you make a pick for everyone and get the top 9 folks with our picks :naughty:
     
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  17. Azor Aho Win for Doogie Sponsor

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    Thanks for posting this link. I was wondering if there was a good one available for the NHL draft this year. Other years when similar were available they have been prone to giving bad results, but this was good in the couple of pass throughs I did.

    I'm curious to see what your draft looks like if you don't trade. I know the trade is your preference, but in the possibly likely event we don't trade down, what would you end up with?
     
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  18. 42 jerks Not seeking rents

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    So these are my choices not reliant on the simulator. I also start with Khusnutdinov (for A3K).

    19-Khusnutdinov
    45-Reichel (would be thrilled if he is available)
    53-Commesso (2nd highest rated goalie)
    69-Wisdom
    84-Seeley
    115-Cardwell
    146-Slaggert
    205-Forsfjall
    208-Tarnstrom
     
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  19. AndreiThreeK HFBoards Sponsor Sponsor

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    I traded #44 + #69 for #32

    #19 - Seth Jarvis
    #32 - Marat Khusnutdinov
    #53 - Daniil Gushchin
    #84 - Ty Tullio

    Canes first 3 rounds averages 5'9".
     
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  20. Azor Aho Win for Doogie Sponsor

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    Last draft I did, I was able to trade our pick for every one of Philly's picks. Quite a haul.
     
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  21. 42 jerks Not seeking rents

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    Yesterday the trade values were too low, now I think they overshot on the correction.
     
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  22. Azor Aho Win for Doogie Sponsor

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    Yeah, I was just goofing around with that one. I've tried to give realistic trades when I've explored them otherwise. But they probably still need to calibrate that part a bit.
     
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  23. 42 jerks Not seeking rents

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    This is my new favorite on the draft simulator. Traded 19, 205, 208 for 28 & 34.

    Peterka
    Brisson
    Wallinder
    Commesso
    Heineman
    Seeley
    Magnusson
    Cardwell

    Not a ton of size, but every pick has probably the highest ceiling for their range.
     
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  24. Lempo We are on a pause! Sponsor

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    I hope Tarnstrom becomes a very dirty goal scorer so their pbp guy gets to call "Da rude Tarnstrom!" aplenty.
     
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  25. Ja Sports Registered User

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    Fresh hype reel for Marco Rossi - who had with the highest PPG of this draft class

    Enjoy guys! :)

     

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