Prospect Info: Way too early 2020 draft options

[zman77]

The skating/compete/IQ scouting is mostly from HockeyProspect.com and a little from the few posters on HFB who seem objective. I will mention which qualities are considered above-average for each prospect.


2nd (NYR pick):
I really like Martin Chromiak here as this pick will be around 40 which is around his rating on most lists. Chromiak (skating and IQ) came to the OHL after half a season against men in Sloviak. He is productive (1.29 ppg) playing with Shane Wright. Given his August birthday, I think he has potential to see a big jump in scoring once he turns 18 next season, like Jack Quinn (who would be a terrific first round pick for the Canes) has this season.

The other options that could be available here are: Ridly Greig (skating, compete, and IQ), Seth Jarvis (skating and IQ) or John-Jason Peterka (skating and compete).

2nd:
Starting to seem some confirmation of my PSF model for defense prospects. Here is what Steve K thinks about Joni Jurmo 2020 Draft: Top Prospects (Finland) - The Draft Analyst Jurmo (skating and compete) is considered one of the quickest skaters available.

Even with my ongoing excitement about Jurmo, he might be my second choice with this pick. I think Brett Berard (IQ, skating, compete) is this draft's Nick Robertson. They both have September birthdays and are 5'9". Berard like Robertson is a non-stop competitor. If anything, Berard has an edge in skating.

Ideally the Canes could get one of Jurmo or Berard in the 2nd and the other with Buffalo's 3rd.

I would argue that unless both these players are gone, there are no equal options with this pick.

Brett Berard would be a nice pick.
May have to wait 3-4 years to see him develop.
McKeen's Scouting rate him #24 for the 2020 NHL Draft.
He's committed to Providence College where his Dad coached for many years.
His Dad, David Berard is presently Head Coach of Holy Cross in Worcester, Massachusetts.
McKeen's Scouting: #21-30 for 2020 NHL Draft
Elite Prospects - NHL Draft Center MCKEEN'S HOCKEY TOP 31

21		Jacob Perreault (C)	Sarnia Sting	OHL	47	31	28	59	34
22		Mavrik Bourque (C)	Shawinigan Cataractes	QMJHL	49	29	42	71	30
23		Jérémie Poirier (D)	Saint John Sea Dogs	QMJHL	54	16	28	44	36
24		Brett Berard (F)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	41	16	18	34	46
25		Roni Hirvonen (C)	Ässät	Liiga	44	3	10	13	12
26		Antonio Stranges (C/LW)	London Knights	OHL	49	17	19	36	14
27		Ty Smilanic (F)	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	28	7	14	21	10
28		Sean Farrell (F)	Chicago Steel	USHL	35	14	32	46	24
29		Emil Andrae (D)	HV71 J20	SuperElit	32	9	20	29	74
30		Jake Neighbours (LW)	Edmonton Oil Kings	WHL	52	18	39	57	29

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[My Special Purpose]

Even with my ongoing excitement about Jurmo, he might be my second choice with this pick. I think Brett Berard (IQ, skating, compete) is this draft's Nick Robertson. They both have September birthdays and are 5'9". Berard like Robertson is a non-stop competitor. If anything, Berard has an edge in skating.

I'm sorry, but *I'll* decide who this year's Nick Robertson will be, thankyouverymuch.

 

[emptyNedder]

By the third round (I would even argue after the first 50 picks) I think having a theory or system really could pay off. My guess is that at some point teams draft based on a scout or two seeing something. In a world with analytics, methods are going to improve outcomes.

3rd (Buffalo):
If Jurmo or Berard is still available, that is terrific. Otherwise I like any of these players who could be available.

Oliver Suni (IQ and skating) is one of the better passers in the draft and has decent size in a year when there are so many sub-6-foot forwards. I thought he might be an early 2nd rounder, but an injury has dropped him on most lists. He is playing again and is producing.

Ozzy Wiesblatt (IQ, skating, and compete). Don't see him dropping out of the second, but if he does he would be a great pick around 70.

Luke Evangelista (skating and IQ). Right shot winger who has impressed scouts more as the season has progressed.

Daemon Hunt (skating, IQ, and compete). Hunt was considered an early second-rounder but has dropped a little due to missing some games. Would be a good value.

3rd:

Ronan Seeley (skating and IQ). One of the highest scores on PSF. An August birthday helps the projection.

Samuel Knazko (skating and IQ). Another August birthday whose scouting report is quite similar to Seeley as both were noted for good gap control on defense.

 

[emptyNedder]

One player who I didn't list above but I think has the most upside is Jack Finley. He is big (6'5", 207) and young (Sept. 2). Given that he just turned 17 when the season started, his .9 ppg is indicative that he has some skill to go with his size. The only scouting I can find is on HP from a development camp in August 2018. The scout noted "moves well for his size." If anyone has watched him play, I would be interested in your thoughts.

Based on what is available I think Finley's range of potential ceiling is Nic Roy to Carl Soderberg. Given the organization's willingness to draft based on potential, I think Finley makes sense with either 3rd round pick.

 

[emptyNedder]

Brayden Peters is a goalie who isn't on many radars so could still be available in the 7th. He has been playing well this season splitting starter duties for the WHL Calgary team. Seems more consistent than a lot of young goalies—really only 2 bad starts out or 29.

 

[emptyNedder]

Participating in a mock draft—need something hockey-related to do.

I traded pick 20 for picks 37 and 47 prior to the draft. None of the players ranked around 20 are that appealing (Amirov, Bourke, or any of the D). Though in this draft I could have selected Mysak who I think is a good pick. My thought was one of Peterka, Niederbach, Reichel, or Chromiak would still be around at 37.

I ended up with Reichel. Then took Hirvonen at 45 and Torgersson at 47. If the Canes did something similar, I would be really happy.

Reichel has been successful during international play and against professionals in Germany. The Canes could possibly have Reichel/Necas/Bokk as a second line in 3-4 years.

Hirvonen is small (5'9", 170) but looks to have the potential to be a productive small center not unlike Trocheck.

Torgersson is big (6'3, 205). He has shown the ability to score this season with the highest goals per game of any draft eligible player in SuperElit*. I have read several places that his skating is above average.

I usually think trading a 1st rounder isn't sound. But in this draft if the Canes could get a pick around 35 and one in the early 40s it makes sense (so slightly better return than in the mock).

*Edit. Torgersson has the best gpg or 2002 draft-eligibles. Heineman also scored 26 goals but in 10 fewer games.

 

[emptyNedder]

Just finished up the mock. Ironically, NHL Central Scouting released final rankings today. My three top picks were their 10th, 11th, and 13th top European skaters.

2nd (37): Lukas Reichel—LW, Eisbaren Berlin (DEL)
2nd (45): Roni Hirvonen—C, Assat (Liiga)
2nd (47): Daniel Torgersson—RW, Frolunda (SuperElit)
2nd (52): Jack Thompson—RHD, Sudbury (OHL)
3rd (69): Jack Finley—C, Spokane (WHL)
3rd (83): Ronan Seeley—LHD, Everett (WHL)
4th (114): Michal Gut—C, Everett (WHL)
5th (140) Maximilian Glotzl—LHD, Kölner (DNL U20)
7th (206) Axel Kumlin—RHD, Frolunda (SuperElit)
7th (207) Jesper Vikman—G, AIK (SuperElit)

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

Another option to consider:

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Another option to consider:

View attachment 341270

Better prospect than Michael Hunt?

 

[DaveG]

Another option to consider:

View attachment 341270

Heir apparent to Dustin Rose

 

[WreckingCrew]

Anyone know anything about Seth Jarvis? He's a guy who could be a riser to top 10 possibly or be overlooked a bit and fall to around #20ish?

 

[GoldiFox]

Anyone know anything about Seth Jarvis? He's a guy who could be a riser to top 10 possibly or be overlooked a bit and fall to around #20ish?

Jarvis had 75 points in his final 37 games this season. 98 points total in 58 games (1.69 p/gp). Nobody from the CHL in 2019 had higher. In 2018 Svechnikov had 1.64 p/gp. Although this year is packed with high-end point producers compared to the past few years.

From the highlights I've seen he is a heady player on the rush with a great shot and quick, decisive release. He makes great passes around the net. He attacks the slot. Just a guy who never seems to let a prime chance get by him.

Jarvis elevates production, stock before draft

“In the first half it was just, I’m going to go out there and try to make as many plays as possible’, then in the second half it was, ‘I’m going to be the best player on the ice at all times.’ It just moved that way.” - Jarvis

2020 Draft Profile: C/W Seth Jarvis - The Draft Analyst

 

[WreckingCrew]

Jarvis had 75 points in his final 37 games this season. 98 points total in 58 games (1.69 p/gp). Nobody from the CHL in 2019 had higher. In 2018 Svechnikov had 1.64 p/gp. Although this year is packed with high-end point producers compared to the past few years.

From the highlights I've seen he is a heady player on the rush with a great shot and quick, decisive release. He makes great passes around the net. He attacks the slot. Just a guy who never seems to let a prime chance get by him.

Jarvis elevates production, stock before draft

“In the first half it was just, I’m going to go out there and try to make as many plays as possible’, then in the second half it was, ‘I’m going to be the best player on the ice at all times.’ It just moved that way.” - Jarvis

2020 Draft Profile: C/W Seth Jarvis - The Draft Analyst

Excellent info, appreciate it! That said I'm guessing he'll be a riser who's gone before our pick

 

[zman77]

 

[zman77]

2008 NHL Redraft: Doughty, Stamkos flip spots at top

 

[GoldiFox]

Good overview on Marat Khusnutdinov. Sitting right in the Canes range and sounds like a Canes type. Great advanced metrics, drives offense, relentless on the forecheck, carries the puck in transition, and one of the younger guys in the Draft.

Scouching is a good series. He loved the Canes last Draft and has a similar mindset on statistics and what is valuable in a player to The Athletic's Scott Wheeler.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Good overview on Marat Khusnutdinov. Sitting right in the Canes range and sounds like a Canes type. Great advanced metrics, drives offense, relentless on the forecheck, carries the puck in transition, and one of the younger guys in the Draft.

Scouching is a good series. He loved the Canes last Draft and has a similar mindset on statistics and what is valuable in a player to The Athletic's Scott Wheeler.

I haven't watched the video, but I've read a bit on him and he seems intriguing. I'm not sure if you're referencing something from the video, but what do you mean in the Canes range? I have mostly seen him 2nd round or lower, so you don't mean the 1st rounder do you? Maybe I'm missing some higher rankings somewhere?

 

[GoldiFox]

I haven't watched the video, but I've read a bit on him and he seems intriguing. I'm not sure if you're referencing something from the video, but what do you mean in the Canes range? I have mostly seen him 2nd round or lower, so you don't mean the 1st rounder do you? Maybe I'm missing some higher rankings somewhere?

Highest I've seen is Kournianos who has him at #12.

2020 Draft Profile: C Marat Khusnutdinov - The Draft Analyst

I've seen him ranked mid 1st all the way to the end of the 2nd. He has been a late riser as his role grew on SKA's MHL team throughout the year. The Canes currently own #19, #44, and #54 plus they moved back a number of times last year so "in their range" for me means that he is more likely than not available if they want him. Or put another way he isn't "out of their range".

He's a counterattacker who hounds the puck, turns plays around, can carry the play through the neutral zone, and uses his teammates well. Everything Rod likes.

 

[Lempo]

Good overview on Marat Khusnutdinov. Sitting right in the Canes range and sounds like a Canes type. Great advanced metrics, drives offense, relentless on the forecheck, carries the puck in transition, and one of the younger guys in the Draft.

Scouching is a good series. He loved the Canes last Draft and has a similar mindset on statistics and what is valuable in a player to The Athletic's Scott Wheeler.

He's worth a pick on the Death of Marat jokes alone.

 

[DaveG]

He's worth a pick on the Death of Marat jokes alone.

You might say we would further revolutionize the world of sports memes

 

[Lempo]

You might we would further revolutionize the world of sports memes

It'd be a bloodbath.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

As far as the 2020 draft goes, I think that this is yet another solid draft to trade down for more picks. There's a LOT of precious hockey games and minutes that scouts have missed due to the coronavirus, and I think that leaves a huge bubble of players with unusually uncertain outcomes, even by the standards of hockey prospects.

 

[DaveG]

As far as the 2020 draft goes, I think that this is yet another solid draft to trade down for more picks. There's a LOT of precious hockey games and minutes that scouts have missed due to the coronavirus, and I think that leaves a huge bubble of players with unusually uncertain outcomes, even by the standards of hockey prospects.

I think we should lean toward doing this even without the uncertainty.

The lack of games right now keeps us with both our 3rd and 4th for now, but with 5 top 90 picks I absolutely would trade down our 3rd for a 4th and 5th and trade down our 4th for an early 5th and 6th. We're still nowhere near the 90 reserve list limit and more darts never hurts or chances at another big find.

 

[Chan790]

I think we should lean toward doing this even without the uncertainty.

The lack of games right now keeps us with both our 3rd and 4th for now, but with 5 top 90 picks I absolutely would trade down our 3rd for a 4th and 5th and trade down our 4th for an early 5th and 6th. We're still nowhere near the 90 reserve list limit and more darts never hurts or chances at another big find.

Recalling the early 1990s drafts (and before) when scouting wasn't as advanced, there wasn't as much data or film to be had, and you really had to rely on gut/intuition/incomplete-data...even the 5th OA pick was a high-risk proposition.

Looking at that for the last time teams really had to go into drafts somewhat impaired on the amount of information they had, I'm prone to go the other way on my thinking.

Jump up, then up again...get the highest pick, surest things you can. I'd rather pick once in the top-15 and twice more in the top-90 exhausting my entire draft board, than 5 picks in the top-90 with the highest being in the mid-20s, then a smattering of later picks.

If everyone is going into this impaired...I want fewer, better darts. This will be the draft where a 1C falls to the 2nd and a 1D goes in the 6th...but it'll probably be luck more than scouting or skill that finds them.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Recalling the early 1990s drafts (and before) when scouting wasn't as advanced, there wasn't as much data or film to be had, and you really had to rely on gut/intuition/incomplete-data...even the 5th OA pick was a high-risk proposition.

Looking at that for the last time teams really had to go into drafts somewhat impaired on the amount of information they had, I'm prone to go the other way on my thinking.

Jump up, then up again...get the highest pick, surest things you can. I'd rather pick once in the top-15 and twice more in the top-90 exhausting my entire draft board, than 5 picks in the top-90 with the highest being in the mid-20s, then a smattering of later picks.

If everyone is going into this impaired...I want fewer, better darts. This will be the draft where a 1C falls to the 2nd and a 1D goes in the 6th...but it'll probably be luck more than scouting or skill that finds them.

I respectfully disagree with this philosophy, but I'm sure that some teams will do exactly that. My general view is that when scouting is uncertain in one particular year, you respond to that by crowding the middle and bottom with picks. To me, it's difficult to determine what is a "better" dot than another by the time you reach the late 2nd round. It's better to expand the horizon and acquire more arrows.