Prospect Info: Way too early 2020 draft options

[emptyNedder]

I think the best strategy is somewhere in the middle—at least for this draft. The top 12-15 is pretty good (though what is true for the entire draft is also true near the top as there are an inordinate number of players 5'10" or less).
It looks like the Canes are drafting at 19 or 20. If, say, Detroit would trade picks 32 and 51 for 20 that appears to be the best strategy in 2020. Most scouts/pundits seem to think after 15 until about 45 the players are fairly equivalent. Of course, Detroit and Steve Y are likely smart enough to think that as well, but they might fall in love with one player.

Then there seems to be another tier from 46 to 70 or so. I wouldn't want too many chances after that.

If the Canes end up with four seconds some combination: Reichel, Chromiak, Foerster, Niederbach, Hirvonen, Torgersson, Jarventie, Berard would be a great haul of forward potential. Then in the third there should be some D options that could be steals: Seeley, Faber, Persson, Knazko.

 

[emptyNedder]

Still interested in the consensus: Would you trade the Canes first (likely 19th or 20th) to either Detroit (32 & 51) or Ottawa (33 & 46) for two seconds?

 

[WreckingCrew]

Still interested in the consensus: Would you trade the Canes first (likely 19th or 20th) to either Detroit (32 & 51) or Ottawa (33 & 46) for two seconds?

I wouldn't personally, there's going to be something fairly decent slip to us probably at that spot...13ish spots is a pretty significant drop, i don't think those 2 2nds are worth the drop

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Still interested in the consensus: Would you trade the Canes first (likely 19th or 20th) to either Detroit (32 & 51) or Ottawa (33 & 46) for two seconds?

If, come our pick, a bunch of defenders are the best available. Even then, I would only trade down 5 spots.

Minnesota for Pitts pick and their 2nd rounder.
SJ for TBs pick and their 2nd rounder.

now if we pick in high 20s then yes.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

If, come our pick, a bunch of defenders are the best available. Even then, I would only trade down 5 spots.

Minnesota for Pitts pick and their 2nd rounder.
SJ for TBs pick and their 2nd rounder.

now if we pick in high 20s then yes.

Yes, if both Toronto and us somehow go deep in the playoffs and we meet in the ECF, then sure, I would trade down with Detroit. If our pick is in the 19-20 range, though, I would probably just draft the BPA. I just have an expectation every year that some teams are going to reach on defensemen in the top 20 due to needs, because there always are. The vast majority of reaches in the 1st round, at least in my observations, tend to be defensemen, particularly if RHed.

 

[GoldiFox]

Still interested in the consensus: Would you trade the Canes first (likely 19th or 20th) to either Detroit (32 & 51) or Ottawa (33 & 46) for two seconds?

#19 for #32 + #52 + #60 would be worth thinking about. Or Montreal with #39 + #40 + #61. Historically a mid-late 2nd is only worth a ~5 spot increase in the first round.

Usually there are unexpected fallers in the 15-20 region. Depends on who is available at the pick. Personally I'm more and more all-in on Khusnutdinov at #19. He checks all of the boxes the Canes look for. Great skater, aggressive with an active stick, carries the puck through zone entries and exits, 60%+ on the draw, and committed 100% on defense. A lot of Aho in his game. All MHL games are available on youtube to check him out.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Usually there are unexpected fallers in the 15-20 region. Depends on who is available at the pick.

Well yes, and they generally always fit a certain profile: speedy, skilled, high ceiling, but CW has them at a low floor because they're undersized.

 

[emptyNedder]

Personally I'm more and more all-in on Khusnutdinov at #19.

I don't see it. Khusnutdinov is on the small side (maybe 5'11, maybe 5'9") and while folks who watch him are impressed, he doesn't produce like a first-round center. He was not ppg in the u20 league and didn't score in two playoff games. In international play for the u18 team he was 13th in scoring. I am as disdainful of "stats analysis" as almost anyone. However, at some point production (or lack thereof) has to be considered.

If the Canes want a smallish center whose play has drawn comparisons to Aho—and whose production is much closer to Seabass in his draft season—the Hirvonen makes sense. He is likely to be available in the early second.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Still interested in the consensus: Would you trade the Canes first (likely 19th or 20th) to either Detroit (32 & 51) or Ottawa (33 & 46) for two seconds?

Most likely not for me. Only if it ends up like the Gauthier year where by the time it gets to our pick I'm underwhelmed with pretty much all the options available. I don't think that will happen, but you never know.

 

[emptyNedder]

Only if it ends up like the Gauthier year where by the time it gets to our pick I'm underwhelmed with pretty much all the options available.

I don't think it is so much being underwhelmed as there being a lot of forwards in the 20-45 range who are fairly close.

For instance, A3K likes Khusnutdinov. For me I think adding (say) Peterka and Torgersson or Foerster and Niederbach has a little more value.

I agree if someone like Zary is available, then it might not make sense.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I think we have plenty of darts, and if we run things like last year, we'll end up with plenty more. I'm not worried about getting more in that range at the expense of our 1st unless I don't like the options there in the 1st. That's just me.

 

[DaveG]

Still interested in the consensus: Would you trade the Canes first (likely 19th or 20th) to either Detroit (32 & 51) or Ottawa (33 & 46) for two seconds?

I'd want more from either offer. A drop of 12-15 spots at that point of the draft can be pretty substantial. For reference Suzuki last year was a top 20 guy by most every account. Dropped to us at 28. Usually you want to be as early on the list to catch the draft fallers. Last year the draft was about 20 deep in the first couple tiers, this year it's about 15-16 deep.

 

[spockBokk]

Still interested in the consensus: Would you trade the Canes first (likely 19th or 20th) to either Detroit (32 & 51) or Ottawa (33 & 46) for two seconds?

With already having two 2nds and only one 1st, I'd rather they keep the pick than trade it.

 

[emptyNedder]

A drop of 12-15 spots at that point of the draft can be pretty substantial.

My take is that this year is slightly different for two reasons: 1) Even more than last year the separation between 18-36 is minimal—past 36 or so there is a new tier, which is why I am not as amenable to trading with Montreal; 2) with no WJC-18 and no playoffs some international players didn't get to make a late rise.

To point 1). Last year picking 20 the Canes would likely have chosen Tomasino or McMichael—two players I absolutely love. However, even I would be tempted to say getting two players available at 33 and 50 Kaliyev and Nick Robertson (or Hoglander and Fagemo) was the better outcome.

2) With the extra Covid time, I have spent time reviewing some of the scouting publications (I subscribed to both HockeyProspects and McKeen's). The players close to consensus picks for the Canes are Amirov and Mysak. Nothing I have been able to read/watch has convinced me that either of those players (I do like Mysak quite a bit) is significantly better than players likely available at 32/33 like Peterka/Chromiak/Hirvonen. Especially when the Canes could also add a player around 50 like Evangelista/Torgersson/Groshev.

If moving from 20 to 33 is worth more than one second and Ottawa really wants a D available when the Canes are picking (Schneider is a great example), then 20 for 33, 52 and 53 is really appealing. As much as I think Mysak would help the Canes in 3-4 years, I don't see many calculations where he is more valuable on draft day than Foerster/Torgersson/Berard.

Of course, as I said earlier if a player falls like Zary or Mercer, then I can see staying put.

 

[WreckingCrew]

My take is that this year is slightly different for two reasons: 1) Even more than last year the separation between 18-36 is minimal—past 36 or so there is a new tier, which is why I am not as amenable to trading with Montreal; 2) with no WJC-18 and no playoffs some international players didn't get to make a late rise.

To point 1). Last year picking 20 the Canes would likely have chosen Tomasino or McMichael—two players I absolutely love. However, even I would be tempted to say getting two players available at 33 and 50 Kaliyev and Nick Robertson (or Hoglander and Fagemo) was the better outcome.

2) With the extra Covid time, I have spent time reviewing some of the scouting publications (I subscribed to both HockeyProspects and McKeen's). The players close to consensus picks for the Canes are Amirov and Mysak. Nothing I have been able to read/watch has convinced me that either of those players (I do like Mysak quite a bit) is significantly better than players likely available at 32/33 like Peterka/Chromiak/Hirvonen. Especially when the Canes could also add a player around 50 like Evangelista/Torgersson/Groshev.

If moving from 20 to 33 is worth more than one second and Ottawa really wants a D available when the Canes are picking (Schneider is a great example), then 20 for 33, 52 and 53 is really appealing. As much as I think Mysak would help the Canes in 3-4 years, I don't see many calculations where he is more valuable on draft day than Foerster/Torgersson/Berard.

Of course, as I said earlier if a player falls like Zary or Mercer, then I can see staying put.

The problem is, ALL of those guys could be gone by the time we're up if other teams like them as well and are afraid they'll get taken before they're up again. Are there 12 guys you'd value as much or have as high of a ceiling as Mysak (for example) that are ranked behind him? If yes, then dropping back is no big deal, if no, then you're taking a gamble whether or not one of your other picks will still be available. As you move further in the draft, the range of picks vs ranking widens greatly, so a guy you were hoping to snag in the 3rd could go early-mid 2nd. You don't know when/where a guy will be drafted until after it happens...and then it's too late...it's a crapshoot. I can't honestly say until I see who's left on the board if I would be comfortable with them trading down or not. We'll call it Schroedinger's Draft!

 

[DaveG]

My take is that this year is slightly different for two reasons: 1) Even more than last year the separation between 18-36 is minimal—past 36 or so there is a new tier, which is why I am not as amenable to trading with Montreal; 2) with no WJC-18 and no playoffs some international players didn't get to make a late rise.

To point 1). Last year picking 20 the Canes would likely have chosen Tomasino or McMichael—two players I absolutely love. However, even I would be tempted to say getting two players available at 33 and 50 Kaliyev and Nick Robertson (or Hoglander and Fagemo) was the better outcome.

2) With the extra Covid time, I have spent time reviewing some of the scouting publications (I subscribed to both HockeyProspects and McKeen's). The players close to consensus picks for the Canes are Amirov and Mysak. Nothing I have been able to read/watch has convinced me that either of those players (I do like Mysak quite a bit) is significantly better than players likely available at 32/33 like Peterka/Chromiak/Hirvonen. Especially when the Canes could also add a player around 50 like Evangelista/Torgersson/Groshev.

If moving from 20 to 33 is worth more than one second and Ottawa really wants a D available when the Canes are picking (Schneider is a great example), then 20 for 33, 52 and 53 is really appealing. As much as I think Mysak would help the Canes in 3-4 years, I don't see many calculations where he is more valuable on draft day than Foerster/Torgersson/Berard.

Of course, as I said earlier if a player falls like Zary or Mercer, then I can see staying put.

Yeah I don't disagree much at all with the assessment of what you're looking at. In fact I agree, just with a little difference in where tier 3 starts this year (I say 17, you say 18).

I look at it with the same perspective as @TheRillestPaulFenton is looking at it. Someone's going to go off the board and someone we really like is going to fall. Almost always seems to happen in the draft.

Last year Suzuki was projected at 20, went to us at 28 with some major head scratchers going in front of him (Foote most notably). Same in 17, there's no way that Necas or the other Suzuki should have been there at our pick but the Rangers and Red Wings both went full derp and took Andersson and Rasmussen respectively. 15 had 4 straight "what the hell?" level picks, 3 consecutive ones by the Bruins, before the Isles and Jets pounced on their mistakes and took Barzal and Connor respectively. I'd argue 5 but Crouse was expected to go there if not actually HIGHER.

What it comes down to is that I'm about 95% someone's going to be there at 20 for us. Whether that's Zary (my bet) or Askarov we'll have a chance to cash in on someone else's mistake if we stay at 20 that we would be much less likely to if we trade down. If it's that 5% that there's not teams in front of us taking the guys we'd want... I still want more from Detroit or Ottawa (add maybe a 3rd by either team)

 

[GoldiFox]

I don't see it. Khusnutdinov is on the small side (maybe 5'11, maybe 5'9") and while folks who watch him are impressed, he doesn't produce like a first-round center. He was not ppg in the u20 league and didn't score in two playoff games. In international play for the u18 team he was 13th in scoring. I am as disdainful of "stats analysis" as almost anyone. However, at some point production (or lack thereof) has to be considered.

If the Canes want a smallish center whose play has drawn comparisons to Aho—and whose production is much closer to Seabass in his draft season—the Hirvonen makes sense. He is likely to be available in the early second.

There is a ton of projecting to be done with Khusnutdinov as he was buried in the bottom-6 and PK unit of the best team in the MHL. I like guys who improve significantly throughout the year. Marat had 29 points in his last 26 games which is similar production to Rodion Amirov who is a full year older.

Scouching does a good job of breaking down his projectable toolset. Highest % zone entries carrying the puck of any prospect he tracked. Highest pass completions and high-danger pass completions per 60. Always hustling defensively with an active stick. He is probably 5'9" but size is less and less important these days and he is one of the younger players in the Draft. I love a good playmaking Center so the upside there does it for me. Plenty of talent around #19 to like though.

 

[Chan790]

Still interested in the consensus: Would you trade the Canes first (likely 19th or 20th) to either Detroit (32 & 51) or Ottawa (33 & 46) for two seconds?

Nope. I'm sticking with my earlier feeling that this is the draft to try to move up on account of the lack of late scouting and a combine. I wouldn't move down except for a lopsided offer. I mean if someone feels so strongly about Lapierre or Amirov that they would move a 2020 2nd and a 2021 1st, who are we to say "No. Thank you."

I'd rather see if we can package #19+ to move up 10 or so spots and grab Askarov or one of the second-tier of scoring forwards.

 

[emptyNedder]

I'd rather see if we can package #19+ to move up 10 or so spots and grab Askarov or one of the second-tier of scoring forwards.

I agree with moving up—the top 12 or so is where the strength is in this draft, though I am skeptical of drafting a goalie in the first.
If the Canes could get up to 10 for Quinn or Holtz that would be ideal. I just don't think 19/20 is a good spot.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Interesting note. If the draft is held in June, and at this point with Bill Daly sending out a memo and Gary having suggested it, it likely will, it sounds like the NHL will propose solutions to conditional picks and give the teams 7 days to accept or amend the terms of the trade as they see fit.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

I agree with moving up—the top 12 or so is where the strength is in this draft, though I am skeptical of drafting a goalie in the first.
If the Canes could get up to 10 for Quinn or Holtz that would be ideal. I just don't think 19/20 is a good spot.

Especially a goalie who struggled living up to the hype and barely played all year.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

I'm not on the side of trading up in the 1st round if our pick is in the mid-late teens. There's always some very high-upside fallers on the wing and the pivot every year around that range, like Caufield and Krebs last year, usually because tradition dictates that at least 3-4 teams reach for defensemen every draft. If our pick is somehow in the late 20s because Toronto and us meet in the ECF, I'm more keen on a trade down. If our pick is around 20-22, though, maybe I would consider a trade up if Askarov is still on the board at around #15 or so (I expect Askarov to be picked in the top 10, however). I would only do a trade up in that scenario, though. I'm way higher on Askarov than a lot of folks on this board: he's a boy that plays against men with a full-grown man's maturity, and has been excellent almost anywhere that he's been. His track record and accolades remind me of Vasilevskiy at the same age.

 

[TheReelChuckFletcher]

Interesting note. If the draft is held in June, and at this point with Bill Daly sending out a memo and Gary having suggested it, it likely will, it sounds like the NHL will propose solutions to conditional picks and give the teams 7 days to accept or amend the terms of the trade as they see fit.

I still don't think that a June draft will happen, mainly because I'm pretty sure that a huge chunk of NHL clubs, particularly in the brutal Central and Metro Divisions, want to see how the teams seed in the playoffs and who's the champion before they determine the slots. If a June draft happens, though, I could very well see extra protections on the Skjei and Marleau picks that potentially move those trades to 2021.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I'd put my money on the June draft even if I don't like it. Could wait like it should, but Bettman and Daly putting things out there like this means it's pretty likely to happen. Daly also apparently mentioned tv networks being behind it. They are seduced by the recent NFL ratings even if they likely won't see the same kind of boost.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

June draft but ineligible until 20-21 season start? Although anyone that has a chance to make the roster would benefit from the 1-3 months of practice.