Prospect Info: Way too early 2020 draft options

[JacquesCousteau]

This is a controversial opinion, but I would be on board with moving the 13 OA for Darcy Kuemper. He flies under the radar, but his last two years have been very, very strong. Considering the fact he has 2 years left at a reasonable price - I think we should take the risk. Darcy has also shown that he can perform in the playoffs. It hurts to give up the 13 OA, because everyone's favorite lottery ticket is the one they haven't scratched yet. But if you look a 13 OA for the last ten years, it is a mixed bag.

2009 Zack Kassian
2010 Brandon Gormley
2011 Sven Baetschi
2012 Radek Faksa
2013 Josh Morrissey
2014 Jakub Vrana
2015 Jakub Zaboril
2016 Jake Bean
2017 Nick Suzuki
2018 Ty Dellandrea
2019 Spencer Knight

We could get a goalie who would be a viable Vezina contender (he was on track to be a finalist before his injury last year, and I believe he finished in the top 5 the year prior) without the inflated price or term. Goalies are always a risk, even Bobrovsky didn't come in as hot as expected, but our current tandem probably can't get us to the promised land. I think we should do it and take a hard run at Stanley.

 

[GoldiFox]

I doubt he's making that decision. I'm pretty sure he's got a team he trusts making that decision, and he's reflecting what the team has said. That's how this front office works.

Dundon said in the interview "to be clear I am not in charge of making the pick". He said he doesn't have any say in the final decision and that has his biases that he pushes on the group which is simply telling them not to fall in love with any aspect like size or physicality. He said it's easy to see the current Cup finals and have recency bias in a certain type of player doing well but they need to step back and rely on the confluence of multiple opinions.

I agree think Dundon is just vocalizing what the group's approach is. He likes to be involved and doesn't mind being a figurehead of sorts in relaying that general approach.

Repeatedly Dundon said size doesn't matter today and referenced Brayden Point. I think we will continue to see smaller guys picked as there is a general bias towards that group. Jarvis seems like a good bet and I hope he is there.

 

[GoldiFox]

This is a controversial opinion, but I would be on board with moving the 13 OA for Darcy Kuemper. He flies under the radar, but his last two years have been very, very strong. Considering the fact he has 2 years left at a reasonable price - I think we should take the risk. Darcy has also shown that he can perform in the playoffs. It hurts to give up the 13 OA, because everyone's favorite lottery ticket is the one they haven't scratched yet. But if you look a 13 OA for the last ten years, it is a mixed bag.

2009 Zack Kassian
2010 Brandon Gormley
2011 Sven Baetschi
2012 Radek Faksa
2013 Josh Morrissey
2014 Jakub Vrana
2015 Jakub Zaboril
2016 Jake Bean
2017 Nick Suzuki
2018 Ty Dellandrea
2019 Spencer Knight

We could get a goalie who would be a viable Vezina contender (he was on track to be a finalist before his injury last year, and I believe he finished in the top 5 the year prior) without the inflated price or term. Goalies are always a risk, even Bobrovsky didn't come in as hot as expected, but our current tandem probably can't get us to the promised land. I think we should do it and take a hard run at Stanley.

I wouldn't trade #13 for 2 years of Vasilevski or Price right now. The Canes just aren't in their realistic Cup window yet. I'd rather take a flyer on Raanta for much cheaper. Phoenix got Kuemper in a deal for Tobias Rieder so it isn't as if he is a superstar despite putting up great numbers the past couple years.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I'd love to get Kuemper, but using #13 on a goalie that has only made it through one year with a starter's load is a no from me. At best, I'd offer a top 10 protected first next year (with the hope and expectation of it being in the 20's, though it could obviously end up in the same range if things go poorly).

I will also so that providing a list of past players at a pick as if there were no other options available after those picks has always struck me as a weird way to judge the value of a pick. Just because the Bruins were dumb enough to take Zboril when guys like Connor and Barzal were available and expected to go in that area, doesn't mean the pick has that value. I'm certain the same can be applied to all of those picks.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

This is a controversial opinion, but I would be on board with moving the 13 OA for Darcy Kuemper. He flies under the radar, but his last two years have been very, very strong. Considering the fact he has 2 years left at a reasonable price - I think we should take the risk. Darcy has also shown that he can perform in the playoffs. It hurts to give up the 13 OA, because everyone's favorite lottery ticket is the one they haven't scratched yet. But if you look a 13 OA for the last ten years, it is a mixed bag.

2009 Zack Kassian
2010 Brandon Gormley
2011 Sven Baetschi
2012 Radek Faksa
2013 Josh Morrissey
2014 Jakub Vrana
2015 Jakub Zaboril
2016 Jake Bean
2017 Nick Suzuki
2018 Ty Dellandrea
2019 Spencer Knight

We could get a goalie who would be a viable Vezina contender (he was on track to be a finalist before his injury last year, and I believe he finished in the top 5 the year prior) without the inflated price or term. Goalies are always a risk, even Bobrovsky didn't come in as hot as expected, but our current tandem probably can't get us to the promised land. I think we should do it and take a hard run at Stanley.

Not taking issue with the idea necessarily, but the 13th pick didn't have to be the 13th pick in those circumstances. That's on the scouting staffs of those particular teams. Expand that out to 13-17 and you add Leddy, Schwartz, Tarasenko, Miller, Wilson, Hertl, Pulock, Larkin, Sanheim, Barzal, Connor and McAvoy. A mid-1st is no guarantee of anything in the draft, but there is a solid enough chance to get a young player to build around in that range.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I wouldn't trade #13 for 2 years of Vasilevski or Price right now. The Canes just aren't in their realistic Cup window yet. I'd rather take a flyer on Raanta for much cheaper. Phoenix got Kuemper in a deal for Tobias Rieder so it isn't as if he is a superstar despite putting up great numbers the past couple years.

I still personally have almost zero interest in Raanta. I guess the only way I could see going for it is if we can parlay Reimer's contract situation into a better pick than what we have to give up to get Raanta. He's a fine goalie, but given his health, I don't see him as a huge upgrade, so I'd need that extra value.

 

[JacquesCousteau]

I just listed the 13 OA to illustrate that you might or might not get a good player in the 10-15 range. Certainly not an exact science to be sure.

The thing is if we draft Askarov, who most people are on board with, we get a guy who might be an NHL goalie in 2 or 5 or 8 years. I think we need to look to secure a no. 1 goalie sooner rather than later. There is going to be significant risk involved regardless of how we proceed.

 

[DaveG]

I just listed the 13 OA to illustrate that you might or might not get a good player in the 10-15 range. Certainly not an exact science to be sure.

The thing is if we draft Askarov, who most people are on board with, we get a guy who might be an NHL goalie in 2 or 5 or 8 years. I think we need to look to secure a no. 1 goalie sooner rather than later. There is going to be significant risk involved regardless of how we proceed.

I think you're dead right about making a move to get Kuemper, just not correct on the pieces.

With them looking to cut salary a deal based around Reimer and a second round pick or second tier product just flat out makes more sense for us. If they'd rather have a pick in the 20s than Reimer + 41, then hey, take it. I don't think they'll be getting a first though, when's the last time a goalie got one in a trade? Schneider? That was over 5 years ago, Schneider was 4 years younger, and remarkably Schneider had been putting up even better numbers than Kuemper. Not a good comparison if that's what Arizona's going off for valuation.

If we still had the #22 I'd trade it for Kuemper... Provided we moved Reimer out for a second or equivalent prospect (or Poolparty)

 

[AhosDatsyukian]

Dundon said in the interview "to be clear I am not in charge of making the pick". He said he doesn't have any say in the final decision and that has his biases that he pushes on the group which is simply telling them not to fall in love with any aspect like size or physicality. He said it's easy to see the current Cup finals and have recency bias in a certain type of player doing well but they need to step back and rely on the confluence of multiple opinions.

I agree think Dundon is just vocalizing what the group's approach is. He likes to be involved and doesn't mind being a figurehead of sorts in relaying that general approach.

Repeatedly Dundon said size doesn't matter today and referenced Brayden Point. I think we will continue to see smaller guys picked as there is a general bias towards that group. Jarvis seems like a good bet and I hope he is there.

Thanks for expanding on what he said, that makes sense. I haven't gotten a chance to listen to it yet.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I think you're dead right about making a move to get Kuemper, just not correct on the pieces.

With them looking to cut salary a deal based around Reimer and a second round pick or second tier product just flat out makes more sense for us. If they'd rather have a pick in the 20s than Reimer + 41, then hey, take it. I don't think they'll be getting a first though, when's the last time a goalie got one in a trade? Schneider? That was over 5 years ago, Schneider was 4 years younger, and remarkably Schneider had been putting up even better numbers than Kuemper. Not a good comparison if that's what Arizona's going off for valuation.

If we still had the #22 I'd trade it for Kuemper... Provided we moved Reimer out for a second or equivalent prospect (or Poolparty)

Unless they also move Raanta, I struggle with them wanting Reimer at all given they have both Raanta and Hill as competent goalies.

Also, I think Martin Jones, Lehner, and Andersen all went for 1sts more recently.

 

[emptyNedder]

13—Seth Jarvis, RW
53—Theodor Niederbach, C
59—Jack Finley, C
69—Brett Berard, LW
83—Eemil Viro, LHD
115—Calle Clang, G

Participating in the most recent mock in that forum. This is through 4 rounds

• Toronto traded 15 and their 2nd for 12 and took Askarov—not unhappy with Jarvis
• Traded 41 for 59 & 83. Still got my three favorite forwards in the 2nd/3rd range.
• Would have used 69 on Seeley (my favorite D), but the secret might be out of the bag as LA took him at 51, which is the highest I have seen in any mock (though HockeyProspect.com did have Seeley at 35).
• Viro in the middle of the 3rd is great value
• I don't trust my own view on goalies, but I had Clang as the third option in this draft behind Askarov and Commesso

 

[spockBokk]

What about Ty Smilanic with one of the 2nds?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Ah Friedman’s thoughts, the gossip section of NHL news.

seriously though, I would prefer a non Metro team to take him before 13 in case he does turn into Price.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

NJ needs forwards and D in such a bad way and they have a good young goalie in Blackwood. Them reaching for Askarov seems an unwise use of the 7OA

 

[Lempo]

Straight from Dundon, sure doesn’t sound like they’re taking Askarov:



Sounds like they’re going for best “goal-scorer”. Hearing him talk, it really sounds like Jarvis or Quinn would be top of their wishlist.

"Yeah we're going with Askarov, and you guys can start offering us your surplus goal-scorer in a trade."

 

[w e l o s t b o y s]

Pronman put out his final rankings. He has a tier cutoff after #14 but that doesn't include Quinn, Lundell, or Holloway

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Pronman put out his final rankings. He has a tier cutoff after #14 but that doesn't include Quinn, Lundell, or Holloway

The article I read had Quinn in the "Very Good NHL Prospect" tier at #16, Holloway at #17, and Lundell at #18.

"Legit NHL prospect" then starts at #28.
"NHL Potential" then starts at #75

Here was his "Tier" definitions:

• Special NHL prospect: Projects as one of the very best players in the league.
• Elite NHL prospect: Projects as an impact player, someone who is top 10 percent in the NHL at his position.
• High-end NHL prospect: Projects as a first-line forward, a top-pair defenseman or a top-10 starting goaltender.
• Very good NHL prospect: Projects as a top-six forward, top-four defenseman or starting goaltender in the NHL.
• Legit NHL prospect: Projects to play in the bottom half of a lineup.

 

[GoldiFox]

Pronman put out his final rankings. He has a tier cutoff after #14 but that doesn't include Quinn, Lundell, or Holloway

Zary, Mercer, Jarvis, and Amirov 11-14.

Mercer and Zary listed as high-compete forwards which is in the Canes wheelhouse but their Skating is only ranked at 50. Jarvis has a 60 skating and 60 hockey sense with multiple "complete player" mentions. Amirov with creativity and solid skating.

Vasili Ponomaryov is a guy I have been getting higher on the more I look into him at #41. Pronman said he is one of the most skilled forwards in the Draft and he knows skill. McKenzie had him at #59. Maybe another Aho special. Pronman has his Hockey Sense at 65 which is tied for his highest rating.

 

[Chrispy]

The article I read had Quinn in the "Very Good NHL Prospect" tier at #16, Holloway at #17, and Lundell at #18.

"Legit NHL prospect" then starts at #28.
"NHL Potential" then starts at #75

Here was his "Tier" definitions:

• Special NHL prospect: Projects as one of the very best players in the league.
• Elite NHL prospect: Projects as an impact player, someone who is top 10 percent in the NHL at his position.
• High-end NHL prospect: Projects as a first-line forward, a top-pair defenseman or a top-10 starting goaltender.
• Very good NHL prospect: Projects as a top-six forward, top-four defenseman or starting goaltender in the NHL.
• Legit NHL prospect: Projects to play in the bottom half of a lineup.

For comparison, Pronman listed Svech as the top of the "High-End prospects tier" in 2018 with only a "Dahlin tier" above that. Svech's skill ratings were roughly on par with Stutzle this year, so it seems he's added tiers on the top end.

 

[DaveG]

For comparison, Pronman listed Svech as the top of the "High-End prospects tier" in 2018 with only a "Dahlin tier" above that. Svech's skill ratings were roughly on par with Stutzle this year, so it seems he's added tiers on the top end.

Wouldn't be surprised, quite a few prospects gurus absolutely panned him for that take on Svech when he made it.

 

[GoldiFox]

Also not sure if Wallinder falls to #41 or #52 but he looks like the quintessential Canes D. Big, mobile, high-event rover type of D whose game is all about transition. I'd guess he goes in the late 1st though.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

Why did nobody tell me that we have the 69th pick in the draft?!

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Why did nobody tell me that we have the 69th pick in the draft?!

We didn’t know you didn’t pay you Google subscription fee the last 2 months. We’ll do better next time.

 

[GoldiFox]

Why did nobody tell me that we have the 69th pick in the draft?!

lmao they said the sex number