Prospect Info: Way too early 2020 draft options

[BB88]

For fears how long Rus goalies take before coming to NA.

Sorokin was 3rd round pick and Shestyorkin 4th round, Askarov is expected top15 pick already playing pro games.
As a prospect he is superior to them and should/could be ready for starter role in few years time.

So has there been anything said about Askarov not wanting to leave KHL?

 

[A Star is Burns]

I also wonder if we could take advantage of the skill and magnetic personality of Svech to have a mini Ovie effect. They never had an issue getting Russians over it seemed, and were sometimes able to get them a bit low in the draft.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I was thinking more in comparison to how well the organization has done with D (Faulk 2nd, Pesce 3rd, Slavin 4th) and centers (Rask 2nd, Wallmark 4th, Geekie 3rd, Roy 4th).

A3K makes a good point that many juniors play C so drafting "established" wingers is less likely.

As I stated, not sure if there is a bigger point, just interesting to look at all the things that have been mentioned.

Yeah, A3K makes a good point. Even with that, excluding first round, is Rask/Wallmark/Geekie/Roy that much better than Aho/Foegele/McGinn and someone like Kuokkanen? Kuokkanen isn’t an NHLr yet, but Geekie and Roy don’t have long resumes either.

 

[emptyNedder]

Over the last few months I had too much time on my hands, so I wasted it by looking at this year's draft more deeply. I purchased both the HockeyPropspect.com Black Book and McKeen's draft guide; I also watched quite a few Scouching and DraftDynasty videos.

This is my list of players I would most like to see the Canes draft. I am pretty sure most of these will be available where the Canes have a pick. The order is based on my personal preference—in fact I think my #1 is likely available with Buffalo's 3rd. The number in parentheses is where I think the Canes should/could grab them.

1. Ronan Seeley—a defenseman who skates as well as the top tier guys. His positioning and play within Everett's defensive system might be the best in the draft. Seeley is one of the younger D-men available. He has by far the best score in my PSF model the past two drafts. (69)

2. Theodor Niederbach—a prospect who I think can be an ideal 2C in a few years. I haven't seen him enough to make a stylistic comparison, but his potential reminds me of Krejci. In fact, several of the scouting reports for Niederbach used almost the exact same description that is on EliteProspects for Krejci: "a very smart center with a great two-way game. He is a terrific passer and playmaker with excellent vision." Ironically, both scored at a 1.20 ppg pace in their draft year in their respective U20 leagues. (41)

There are several good options for the Canes second pick in the 2nd.

3. Brett Berard—in a draft that has more than an abundance of players 5'10' or shorter, Berard is my favorite. I believe he was #1 in one of the Scouching "drives offense" metrics (even higher than players like Rossi and Perfetti). The game reports I read all mentioned his tenacity and willingness to attack. Even younger than Seeley, I liken Berard to Nick Robertson as a player almost eligible for the next draft, he has lots of room to improve production.(53)

4. Jack Finley—could be the tallest player drafted at 6'6". Finley is a solid two-way contributor despite also having a September birthday. His combination of size, playmaking, and defensive responsibility gives him tons of upside. (53)

5. Daniel Torgersson. Niederbach's teammate this season and last. Torgersson is a big winger who skates well, has a responsible two-way game, and has been finding the net with increasing frequency. He has been moving up the rankings in the past month, so he might already be gone. (53)

A few others:

6. Brock Faber— Faber is another strong skating d-man who also has an August birthday. He is a right-shot and is often described as always in the right place and quick to move the puck in transition. (69)

7. Viktor Persson—a right shot defenseman with decent size who scouts refer to as "aggressive" and "competitive." His combination of size, skating, and two-way play might be worth a middle-round pick. (115)

8. Owen Pederson—a big winger who the Black Book called "an absolute force in front of the net," and McKeen's noted "excels at both ends of the ice." If his skating improves, he could be a late-round boom pick. (140)

9. Matej Kaslik—the opposite end of the spectrum from Pederson as he isn't big but is one of the faster skaters in the draft. He has been consistently productive in international play and U18 leagues, but barely scored in SuperElit. Worth a flyer in the 7th. (199 or 208)

10. Axel Kumlin—another right-shot D-man. Kumlin isn't flashy but he is consistent and has a good combination of skating, IQ, and calmness to be worth a look. (199 or 208)

11. Michal Gut—Gut didn't garner tons of notice in the WHL with Everett. But he has leadership qualities (Czech captain for both U17 and U18) and has shown in international play that he can produce. Another August birthday, which makes me think he will have a breakout year this coming season.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

11. Michal Gut—Gut didn't garner tons of notice in the WHL with Everett. But he has leadership qualities (Czech captain for both U17 and U18) and has shown in international play that he can produce. Another August birthday, which makes me think he will have a breakout year this coming season.

I've got a good feeling about this guy, and if there's one think I've learned in my 30 years on this Earth, it's to always go with mike gut.

 

[Cardiac Jerks]

I've got a good feeling about this guy, and if there's one think I've learned in my 30 years on this Earth, it's to always go with mike gut.

Das is gut.

 

[MinJaBen]

I've got a good feeling about this guy, and if there's one think I've learned in my 30 years on this Earth, it's to always go with mike gut.

Gut damn, that’s funny right there.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Over the last few months I had too much time on my hands, so I wasted it by looking at this year's draft more deeply. I purchased both the HockeyPropspect.com Black Book and McKeen's draft guide; I also watched quite a few Scouching and DraftDynasty videos. <SNIP>

Thanks for the post. I have don't know anything about any of the prospects other than the top few and I don't have the desire to do all the research so it's good to see a summary like this.

Question 1: You mention the best score in the PSF model for Seeley. How long you have been predicatively using the model (vs. applying after the fact to build / support the model)? When will we start seeing how good of a predictor it is when applying pre-draft? I assume it's still a couple of years away because defensemen, particularly drafted post 1st round can tend to take longer, correct? Just curious.

Question 2: Are there any 2nd+ round goalies you like?

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

2020 NHL Mock Draft | 2020 NHL Draft | NHL Draft

So if Askarov is gone before Carolina picks, who is the player that people feel will drop out of this mock? I assume it has to be one of Lundell, Sanderson, Jarvis, or Quinn? Or is that too simplistic of a way to look at it as I don't know how solid each guy is ranked above these 4?

If it's Sanderson, is he that much of BPA over guys listed in the 14-20 range in this mock that we still take him?

 

[SvechneJerk]

2020 NHL Mock Draft | 2020 NHL Draft | NHL Draft

So if Askarov is gone before Carolina picks, who is the player that people feel will drop out of this mock? I assume it has to be one of Lundell, Sanderson, Jarvis, or Quinn? Or is that too simplistic of a way to look at it as I don't know how solid each guy is ranked above these 4?

If it's Sanderson, is he that much of BPA over guys listed in the 14-20 range in this mock that we still take him?

You're right about that grouping & you can probably add one more TBD, since there always seems to be a reach by someone.

I would be quite surprised if they took Sanderson (if available) & after Dundon saying they wouldn't take a D in the 1st, while he's the owner. But, you never know with this group.

 

[emptyNedder]

Thanks for the post. I have don't know anything about any of the prospects other than the top few and I don't have the desire to do all the research so it's good to see a summary like this.

Question 1: You mention the best score in the PSF model for Seeley. How long you have been predicatively using the model (vs. applying after the fact to build / support the model)? When will we start seeing how good of a predictor it is when applying pre-draft? I assume it's still a couple of years away because defensemen, particularly drafted post 1st round can tend to take longer, correct? Just curious.

Question 2: Are there any 2nd+ round goalies you like?

1: I created PSF last spring—so the 2019 draft was its initial application. Since then I have made adjustments—some minor and some substantial. So short answer, for 2020 I am more confident that it will be predictive. That said, the benefit is to reduce the options more than to identify one or two players. As you mention, not likely to get any "proof" for 5 years.

2: Goalies, who knows. I guess just like everyone else!!! That said, in watching Berard and others on the USNTDP, I often found myself thinking that Commesso reminded me of McElhinney. He was really calm and had a way of making himself look big to shooters. Should be available late 2nd or early 3rd.

 

[GoldiFox]

2020 NHL Mock Draft | 2020 NHL Draft | NHL Draft

So if Askarov is gone before Carolina picks, who is the player that people feel will drop out of this mock? I assume it has to be one of Lundell, Sanderson, Jarvis, or Quinn? Or is that too simplistic of a way to look at it as I don't know how solid each guy is ranked above these 4?

If it's Sanderson, is he that much of BPA over guys listed in the 14-20 range in this mock that we still take him?

Doubt Sanderson drops but if he was the one who fell then I would guess the Canes would take calls on that pick. It should have top-10 value at that point. Would a team like NJ trade #18 + #20 for him? Or Edmonton/Toronto #14/15 + 2021 1st?

I think if Dundon had his choice he would take Quinn. Scored at a similar rate to Svechnikov and in a similar way, with a diverse arsenal of shots all over the offensive zone. He's older but some guys are just late bloomers.

If Rod had his choice I think he'd go with Holloway. He is the biggest project offensively at this pick but plays a lot like Rod. Big, strong, physical Center with top-end skating.

If Waddell and the scouts had their choice I think they go with Jarvis. Can't argue with that production on top of being a dynamic skater. He just puts up points game after game. I think if they liked Suzuki they will really like Jarvis.

All groups would probably be fine with Lundell. I think he's least likely to fall given he projects as an NHL Center which is always a premium. Meat and potatoes 3 zone pivot who makes simple, effective plays all over the ice.

 

[2Minutes4Surging]

It is hard for me to imagine the front office drafting a goalie, based on their stance on value. Goalies just do not hold the same value as a Top-6 or even Top-9 player. However, we have seen them take swings on high-upside players, though typically in the later rounds. If Askarov is viewed as BPA or as having the most value, then sure go ahead and grab him. But if other teams start to reach for D or have unexpected BPA picks and someone like Quinn, Jarvis or Lundell falls in our lap, I would go with goal scoring or an all but guaranteed NHL C every time.

 

[SlavinAway]

FWIW Sara has us taking Askarov at 13.

NHL staff mock draft 2020: Changes in the top three, plus an audit by NHL scouts
13. Carolina: Yaroslav Askarov, G, SKA-VHL

Sara Civian: Of course it’s always a risk going with a goalie in the first round, but the Hurricanes might have a steal at a position they like to keep homegrown here in Askarov. Thinking ahead, you’d imagine they will either keep Petr Mrazek on an extension or trade for a high-end goalie on a short contract, then either sign said goalie to another short contract or let him walk. Considering Alex Nedeljkovic hasn’t yet panned out as an NHL goalie, I could see the Canes taking a chance on “the machine,” should he drop this far. They showed in the 2019 draft they aren’t afraid to go for high-ceiling potential over security, and they aren’t afraid to draft goalies with high picks.

1-12 went Laf, Stutzle, Byfield, Perfetti, Raymond, Drysdale, Rossi, Holtz, Lundell, Sanderson, Quinn, and Jarvis.

 

[Chrispy]

It is hard for me to imagine the front office drafting a goalie, based on their stance on value. Goalies just do not hold the same value as a Top-6 or even Top-9 player. However, we have seen them take swings on high-upside players, though typically in the later rounds. If Askarov is viewed as BPA or as having the most value, then sure go ahead and grab him. But if other teams start to reach for D or have unexpected BPA picks and someone like Quinn, Jarvis or Lundell falls in our lap, I would go with goal scoring or an all but guaranteed NHL C every time.

You can make the argument to Dundon that taking Askarov means you can find a veteran goalie for a couple more years (Mrazek or Keumper or Crawford or Khudobin or...) you can then transition to a reliable young goalie and not have to play goalie roulette for a while.

It also means not going for Lehner (if he doesn't sign in Vegas) or Markstrom (if he doesn't sign in VAN) and spending huge money at G. Which I can imagine Dundon would like, and the analytics would say is a risky use of cap.

 

[Navin R Slavin]

The one argument for Askarov is the gamble-on-high-upside argument, which the FO has definitely developed a reputation for.

 

[GoldiFox]

It is hard for me to imagine the front office drafting a goalie, based on their stance on value. Goalies just do not hold the same value as a Top-6 or even Top-9 player. However, we have seen them take swings on high-upside players, though typically in the later rounds. If Askarov is viewed as BPA or as having the most value, then sure go ahead and grab him. But if other teams start to reach for D or have unexpected BPA picks and someone like Quinn, Jarvis or Lundell falls in our lap, I would go with goal scoring or an all but guaranteed NHL C every time.

That definitely applies to replacement level goalies in general but I'm not sure it applies well to the type of goalie Askarov projects to be.

Look at Vasilevski, Hellebuyck, Samsonov, Shesterkin, or Gibson. The Canes would be paying Necas++ at a minimum to even get them to listen. Spencer Knight (#13 last year) is trending that way as well.

 

[CanesFanBudMan]

The other question is: if the goalie gets to the point where they warrant a top contract what are the chances (compared to a skater) they make that contract an anchor

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

BPA sounds great until an organization finds itself in a situation in which it has a need to make a certain type of deal, but no trading partners. Hockey trades are tough. One team's strengths and weaknesses aligning with another team's weaknesses and strengths, and the players involved being close in ability, age, contractual situations, etc. doesn't happen frequently. When this same FO went to trade a defenseman for a forward in the Fall of 2018, there was nothing out there. Long-term planning shouldn't define a decision, but it has to play a role in it, particularly at the top of the draft. This is especially true for a team that may use high picks in trades at various points to strengthen the short-term roster for cup runs.

I don't think that they have to micro target one particular type of player or position this year, but it would be wise to keep it in range of the long-term needs of the club:

Goalie - It's just uncertain. A patchwork approach may work. We could also be talking about finding stability in net 5 years from now.
Power Winger - If there's type of forward that is absent from the the array of prospects and young players, it's a physical winger to play with the Finns or add size to a Necas-led 2nd line. Rees can only do so much at the pro level with his frame. Will Foegele find enough consistency to be that guy? Gauthier didn't work out. They may have to try again at some point.
Defense - Let's go 4 years into the future. Hamilton, if re-signed, will be 31 and about mid-way through an extension. Slavin will be 30 and the last year of his contract. Pesce will be about 2 months away from 30 and just starting his next contract. Having long-term committments to multiple 30+ guys is scary. Even what we view as the younger guys now will be getting close. Fleury may be in a similar spot at 29. Bean, if he somehow survives the expansion draft, will be UFA age (27) too. A defenseman on an ELC that has been brought along slowly will be nice to have to balance out the group in terms of age and and contractual status.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

BPA sounds great until an organization finds itself in a situation in which it has a need to make a certain type of deal, but no trading partners. Hockey trades are tough. One team's strengths and weaknesses aligning with another team's weaknesses and strengths, and the players involved being close in ability, age, contractual situations, etc. doesn't happen frequently. When this same FO went to trade a defenseman for a forward in the Fall of 2018, there was nothing out there. Long-term planning shouldn't define a decision, but it has to play a role in it, particularly at the top of the draft. This is especially true for a team that may use high picks in trades at various points to strengthen the short-term roster for cup runs.

I don't think that they have to micro target one particular type of player or position this year, but it would be wise to keep it in range of the long-term needs of the club:

Goalie - It's just uncertain. A patchwork approach may work. We could also be talking about finding stability in net 5 years from now.
Power Winger - If there's type of forward that is absent from the the array of prospects and young players, it's a physical winger to play with the Finns or add size to a Necas-led 2nd line. Rees can only do so much at the pro level with his frame. Will Foegele find enough consistency to be that guy? Gauthier didn't work out. They may have to try again at some point.
Defense - Let's go 4 years into the future. Hamilton, if re-signed, will be 31 and about mid-way through an extension. Slavin will be 30 and the last year of his contract. Pesce will be about 2 months away from 30 and just starting his next contract. Having long-term committments to multiple 30+ guys is scary. Even what we view as the younger guys now will be getting close. Fleury may be in a similar spot at 29. Bean, if he somehow survives the expansion draft, will be UFA age (27) too. A defenseman on an ELC that has been brought along slowly will be nice to have to balance out the group in terms of age and and contractual status.

I think BPA gets a little muddled when you get to #13 in the draft as there are likely a few guys you like as much, or close to as much. If you have guys ranked "similarly", then yeah, it's like you said. Where it becomes taking a player that might fit a style/need, but isn't rated as highly as others where it can become problematic (granted, drafting isn't an exact science).

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

In that case, trade down.

What happened with Toronto and Carolina just really stands out in my mind at this time. That big defense for forward, core rebalancing trade was to be the culmination of years of assembling defensive depth. Toronto didn't want to do it, even though everything aligned, perhaps with the exception of optics. Fortunately, this team came out better for it. Ironically, though, the Leafs are still in as much need for that particular type of defenseman as they were at that point.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

In that case, trade down.

What happened with Toronto and Carolina just really stands out in my mind at this time. That big defense for forward, core rebalancing trade was to be the culmination of years of assembling defensive depth. Toronto didn't want to do it, even though everything aligned, perhaps with the exception of optics. Fortunately, this team came out better for it. Ironically, though, the Leafs are still in as much need for that particular type of defenseman as they were at that point.

Yep. Agree. Would rather trade down than make a pick for the sake of making a pick. That said, I would be surprised if there isn't someone at #13 that the team feels is BPA so it's probably worrying about nothing.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Yep. Agree. Would rather trade down than make a pick for the sake of making a pick. That said, I would be surprised if there isn't someone at #13 that the team feels is BPA so it's probably worrying about nothing.

Why trade down when for the low low price of a first rounder, Philippe Paradis could be yours!

 

[GoldiFox]

Scott Wheeler put out his final updated Draft list. His rankings synced pretty well with the Canes list last year and his analytical approach feels like a good match.

He has Noel Gunler at #10, Askarov at #11, Jan Mysak at #12, Zary at #13 and Jarvis at #14.

Interesting bit on Jarvis:

I don’t tend to like to make comparisons to other players but he’s a slick playmaker who reminds me a little of a blend between Nick and Ryan Suzuki. He’s got the well-roundedness across his toolbox and the three-zone work ethic that Nick possesses, with some of Ryan’s flair for the dramatic.

 

[GoldiFox]

SKA chose to start recent Jets goalie transfer Mikhail Berdin over Askarov today. They are currently losing 3-1 at the end of the 2nd period.