Prospect Info: Way too early 2020 draft options

[emptyNedder]

Like, Bob, his numbers will look better there than elsewhere because of the system they play.

Doesn't really hold water as Bob was as good, maybe slightly better, in the three years prior to Tortorella taking the reins in Columbus.

 

[emptyNedder]

The darts at the dart board concept usually doesn’t start for me until at least the mid to late 20’s.

Using 2009-2015 drafts the "darts" start around 10 (some years 8 or 9, one year 11). The 13th pick is 3 of 7 for those drafts with Vrana and Morrissey being the cream. There are quite a few 18-28 picks that worked out as well.

 

[A Star is Burns]

It's kinda nice that Elvis already comes with a $4 million contract for two years. I have a friend in Seattle that might have preferred 2 more years. Wonder how much he likes barbecue and Bojangles?

 

[Vagrant]

the lean of this organization has been to try to be in front of the trends. their apathy towards prioritizing goaltending either through trade or free agency speaks pretty clearly to their opinion on the matter. my supposition is that the returns are incredibly diminishing from a financial perspective once you achieve a certain level of competency that represents nhl average. it's likely better to spend money at positions that drive possession rather than to plan for failure by investing heavily in an entity that can only suppress and cannot dictate. the new style in the league is to be the actors upon rather than the acted upon and your largest financial investments should be in those that aggressively act upon the outcome. that's exciting because it should make for skill heavy drafting with lots of boom or bust potential like our draft last year. which is why we're drafting jack quinn please.

 

[Chan790]

Im in the opposite boat.

If you believe you can get your guy at a lower pick and get more assets then do it. The draft is a guessing game and the more guesses you have the better.

This is only a good strategy if you have a shallow system. It's a terrible strategy for us.

Ours is so deep that we've begun to lose/move guys without ever giving them a chance here. We don't need more darts, we need better darts to increase chances at better assets, not-even-but-especially if it lands fewer assets.

If anything, we're positioned to take bigger risks than most teams...busting on a high-risk, potentially-elite pick doesn't hurt us as much as organizations with shallower pools. We can...to mix sports metaphors...swing for the fences.

We don't need to hit on a lot of picks of non-elite players...if anything, that hurts us as we don't have roster spots for them and they end up blocked.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

This is only a good strategy if you have a shallow system. It's a terrible strategy for us.

Ours is so deep that we've begun to lose/move guys without ever giving them a chance here. We don't need more darts, we need better darts to increase chances at better assets, not-even-but-especially if it lands fewer assets.

If anything, we're positioned to take bigger risks than most teams...busting on a high-risk, potentially-elite pick doesn't hurt us as much as organizations with shallower pools. We can...to mix sports metaphors...swing for the fences.

We don't need to hit on a lot of picks of non-elite players...if anything, that hurts us as we don't have roster spots for them and they end up blocked.

That system is built for deep drafts. There isn’t a lot of consensus of 8-15 and then 15-25 is even murkier. In a shallow draft you wouldn’t want to trade down because you are likely to have a larger drop in talent as you move 5 spots or so(unless you are farther down the draft).

This draft doesn’t have much of a talent gap in the ranges above. You don’t trade down spots knowing you are taking a much lesser talent or not your player.

also in the world of drafts, higher spots doesn’t necessarily mean you have better darts. Just means you have a higher ranked draft pick. We would assume a higher pick means better talent but the results of drafts in every sport tells us otherwise. There are just as many 4-7 round draftees as 1st rounders in the league. Plenty of top 6 / top 4 talents in the bottom rounds. Its an expensive guessing game. If we can get our guy and get more guesses later, you do it.

 

[geehaad]

I don't think deep-ness of a draft nor the deep-ness of a prospect pool enters into the equation, and I don't think those factors should. Sticking with an absolute is a great way to lose a game.

Given the moment/situation/scenario, you evaluate what you can get by making the pick versus what you can get making the trade...all that other shit is moot.

 

[WreckingCrew]

I don't think deep-ness of a draft nor the deep-ness of a prospect pool enters into the equation, and I don't think those factors should. Sticking with an absolute is a great way to lose a game.

Given the moment/situation/scenario, you evaluate what you can get by making the pick versus what you can get making the trade...all that other shit is moot.

This. If your scouts have a particular player in mind they see as being the guy to target, if he's available, you take him. If there's no concensus or 4-5 guys you value equally, trade down a few spots and grab the guy that's left and gain an asset. Especially in later rounds where there's a lot more randomness as to who could be taken next

 

[spockBokk]

I’m slowly coming around to them taking the goalie. I’d rather they take one of the forwards, and I still think they will take a forward over Askarov. However, seems like it’d also be hard for them to pass up a pontential star in goal with the depth they already have everywhere else.

I guess it all depends on how they feel about Nedeljkovic and Kochetkov and that Finnish guy, (makimeanieweanie or something). My take is that if they’re going to commit to spending a crapton to keep a stellar blueline together, they likely can get away with using guys like Mrazek and Reimer or whoever develops out of their current goalie prospects. They also have the prospect capital to go out and trade for a #1 if they really want to.

Like others have said, they don’t seem to put too stock in the goalie position, and a guy like Jarvis/Mercer/Zary/Quinn/Lundell should start paying dividends on the big roster much faster than an 18yr goalie phenom.

PS-If Lundell is available at 13, I’ll be pretty ticked if they pass on him.

 

[Sigurd]

The draft suddenly doesn't feel too early for me anymore after the Canes are down 3-1 in the Boston series due to tonight's awful 3rd period.

Ideally, I want either the best center man available, or if not, then draft Askarov if he is available. The tough part is how much more value do you put on him over the forwards available at 13th? If he is even close to the huge amount of praise and hype he has received, then we should draft him and look elsewhere for acquiring forward depth either in the 2nd round, trade(s), or maybe free agency somehow. Askarov could be our franchise goalie if he's available, and if it takes 2-4 years for him to play in the NHL, his talent would be worth it if he lived up to the praise and hype; thus we wouldn't have to worry about that position for a long time on this team. I'm not convinced yet that he will be there at 13th though.

 

[Canes]

Would be nice to have 13th and another 20-ish pick but hey at least we have Skjei who is technically a NHL player which we can't say the same for our draft pick.

 

[Vagrant]

dylan holloway is a name to watch in our range. he had an underwhelming season at wisconsin (who didn't) but this is a projection for 2nd center that skates beautifully and doesn't come up short defensively. as much as my jack quinn obsession looms, he's not an elite skater and that probably limits our interest. holloway on the other hand is a burner and there's a belief he'll be able to stay at center.

 

[emptyNedder]

I think the key to a successful 2C is the ability to think the game. Krejci is having a great playoff series. Pretty sure Trocheck is considered a slightly better skater. However, Krejci seems to think the game better than most 2Cs. In that way he is similar to Couture, and Point two of the other top 2Cs (though Point has become a great skater and is the 1C for many purposes in Tampa). My point being that I think hockey IQ should be targeted by the Canes.

I am not a scout, but I have subscribed to both McKeens and HockeyProspect's Black Book. The latter had three elite ratings for hockey IQ: Lafreniere, Perfetti, and Brisson. I would target either Zary or Brisson in the first.

Game reports from both scouting services mentioned excellent hockey sense when discussing Theodor Niederbach. The organization should target him with one of the second-round picks.

The organization already has good skaters in both the NHL (Foegele, Slavin, Skjei, Svech, Aho) and prospect ranks (Keane—who if I remember correctly clocked a time close to the McDavid range in the AHL skills competition, Rees, Fensore). With all those players flying around the ice it is really beneficial to have players thinking the game quickly.

 

[DougieSmash]

Big fan of Niederbach.

 

[Anton Dubinchuk]

Big fan of Niederbach.

He comes from a long line of masseurs.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

If we had a late 20s pick, Brisson may be an option. Brisson is in 30-37 range.

 

[Lempo]

He comes from a long line of masseurs.

I don't want him in that case. I heard Mark Masseur was bit of a dick.

 

[Vagrant]

i know this will sound terrible, but i don't want anything to do with brisson especially early considering his dad is mega agent to the stars. pat brisson is considering one of the top ten most powerful men in hockey and name value alone will keep him higher in the conversation than he perhaps should be. if he's the real deal then good for him, sincerely. but these legacy guys can be really hit or miss from making teams they shouldn't have and being shown preferential treatment at times.

 

[MinJaBen]

i know this will sound terrible, but i don't want anything to do with brisson especially early considering his dad is mega agent to the stars. pat brisson is considering one of the top ten most powerful men in hockey and name value alone will keep him higher in the conversation than he perhaps should be. if he's the real deal then good for him, sincerely. but these legacy guys can be really hit or miss from making teams they shouldn't have and being shown preferential treatment at times.

Mega agents son negotiates contract with Tom “nobody is worth half that” Dundon; what could go wrong?

 

[spockBokk]

Thankfully this isn’t very hard, pick one of:

Jarvis/Mercer/Zary/Holloway/Quinn/Askarov

The more I read up on this draft, the more hope they just pick Jarvis, but any of those guys will instantly become one of the Canes’ best prospects.

A faller in the Perfetti/Lundell/Rossi, etc. tier would be friggin awesome too. I need to start reading up on the 20-60 range of guys, to see who will be available with their 2nd rounders. It’s a given they’ll draft a Finn or 2 in the 2nd and 3rd rounds so I guess I need read up more on those guys too.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Thankfully this isn’t very hard, pick one of:

Jarvis/Mercer/Zary/Holloway/Quinn/Askarov

The more I read up on this draft, the more hope they just pick Jarvis, but any of those guys will instantly become one of the Canes’ best prospects.

A faller in the Perfetti/Lundell/Rossi, etc. tier would be friggin awesome too.

Unfortunately, it's always hard as you never know which guys will truly develop and work out.

 

[spockBokk]

Unfortunately, it's always hard as you never know which guys will truly develop and work out.

True, but it’s a lot easier to draft at 13 vs mid 20s or later as the higher end talent is still somewhat in good supply.

Regardless, they’ll still get a very good prospect.

 

[bleedgreen]

Unfortunately, it's always hard as you never know which guys will truly develop and work out.

 

[FlyingSquirrels]

So did NJ get the 3rd or 4th in the Vatanen deal?

 

[Tryamw]

So did NJ get the 3rd or 4th in the Vatanen deal?

3rd I expect.