Prospect Info: Way too early 2020 draft options

[poobags]

Debate over. Craigy McButton has spoken. Askarov is ours.

 

[Lempo]

I see Minny has learned nothing and is taking another Finnish Baby Jesus from HIFK.

 

[Helsinki Hurricanes]

I think Lundell is not available at 13. Makes too much sense for the Wild to go for him. Koivu is on his last legs and Lundell would be of extremely similar mould.

 

[jiitu]

Goaltending weakness might be misunderstood. If you look at Cup champions the past 15 years, they all had good goaltenders, but the only 1st rounder in the bunch was MAF—and only the 08-09 Cup was really his as the last two were more Murray. All of Crawford, Quick, Holtby, Binnington, and Murray were taken 3rd round or later.

Some year or two ago I was involved pretty much in discussion here related the topic: "goalies are risky picks"

I was then posting pretty much statistics from past years or about decade I think comparing how well goalie picks compare to other. And outside maybe top 3 players, the risk factor with other players were just in the same level as with goalies. So even in top10.

Of course stats can be interpreted in many ways but my conclusion was and is that you should not be afraid of using high pick for goalie. He might be a bust, but just with same probability so can any other. It is a myth that goalies are more so risky picks.

The only thing reasoning to not use first round pick for goalie is the fact that myth is strong and mostly also other teams are not using first rounders to goalies so that's why you can get best goalies often in late rounds. That is the only reason but of course it is kind of good reason.

But if your team really is needing a goalie, just use the high pick once a while for it. Otherwise you can rely to the fact that best goalie prospects are often stilla vailable in later rounds.

I am jus tstill very confused and bit angry that this team did not use last year even the latest picks for Kähkönen. I could not understand that. If you have still available proven championship goalie from high-level league, you should take him in last rounds. THEN you can easilly use your high picks for other players.

 

[Lempo]

why would we be making a trade between now and the end of the playoffs?

No but seriously, I understand it's mostly a courtesy policy that teams out of the Stanley Cup Playoffs (or in them for that matter) don't make roster moves and other trades moves during the playoffs to not steal thunder in any way. May be a league edict, too.

This is a very special year, though. The Playoffs are scheduled to end October 4 at the latest, while the Entry Draft is scheduled for already October 9–10. The other Leagues may already have started playing season 20/21. It's all wonky enough that someone may want to make a pick/prospect move where Carolina could be the counterpart.

 

[Lempo]

We btw don't have the picks for Waddell to really pull the 2019 again:

TOR 1st (from Marleau trade)
NYR 2nd (from Fox trade)
CAR 2nd
BUF 3rd (from Skinner trade)
CAR 4th (encumbered, may be CAR 3rd instead, dependent on how much Vatanen plays in the playoffs)
TOR 7th (from Marleau trade)
CAR 7th

I don't know if Waddell might want to start early and turn one of the 2nds into two or more higher picks already before the draft, if having darts is what they are into.

(CAR 1st went to NYR for Skjei
CAR 5th to STL with Faulk
CAR 6th to TOR for Marleau)

 

[Drivebytrucker]

As I recall he's a bit on the older side of the draft and I've read that some think he's not really an elite sniper or goal scorer in spite of the numbers he's put up. I kinda wonder if he ends up a meh Kieffer Bellows type.

I'm not saying he's a sure thing, but putting up 50 goals in your draft year no matter how old you are is a pretty special thing. And it's not like he did that with Rossi on his line. There's no Pat Falloon / Ray Whitney thing here.

That's a pretty special group of players right there!! (Minus AK)

The forward (6-0, 176) was second in the OHL with 52 goals and tied for eighth with 89 points in 62 games. Seven other OHL players have scored at least 50 goals in their NHL draft season since 2000-01: Corey Locke (63, 2002-03), Patrick Kane (62, 2006-07), Steven Stamkos (58, 2007-08), John Tavares (58, 2008-09), Jeff Skinner (50, 2009-10), Alex DeBrincat (51, 2015-16) and Arthur Kaliyev (51, 2018-19)

 

[Chrispy]

I'm not saying he's a sure thing, but putting up 50 goals in your draft year no matter how old you are is a pretty special thing. And it's not like he did that with Rossi on his line. There's no Pat Falloon / Ray Whitney thing here.

That's a pretty special group of players right there!! (Minus AK)

The forward (6-0, 176) was second in the OHL with 52 goals and tied for eighth with 89 points in 62 games. Seven other OHL players have scored at least 50 goals in their NHL draft season since 2000-01: Corey Locke (63, 2002-03), Patrick Kane (62, 2006-07), Steven Stamkos (58, 2007-08), John Tavares (58, 2008-09), Jeff Skinner (50, 2009-10), Alex DeBrincat (51, 2015-16) and Arthur Kaliyev (51, 2018-19)

Agreed. As good as Askarov may be, I'd be surprised if they pass on Quinn if he's there at 13.

I would love to hear an "Askarov vs Quinn" Borg discussion as they set up the draft board.

 

[emptyNedder]

So the marathon might have given the Canes a real opportunity. Korpisalo is "The Man" in Columbus. I can't see CBJ willing to lose Merzlikins to Seattle. They might take any reasonable offer.

While Merzlikins isn't nearly as tested in the NHL as Gibson, he certainly has performed like a top 15 goalie.

Is 13OA to much for Elvis?

 

[MinJaBen]

I see Minny has learned nothing and is taking another Finnish Baby Jesus from HIFK.

I think Minnesota is taking the Askarov...

“I was disappointed in the goaltending,” Guerin said. “It needs to be better, that’s just the way it is, and if I said anything different, I’d be lying because it was not a strong point for us.”

The stats speak for themselves. Dubnyk was 12-15-2 with a 3.35 goals-against average and .890 save percentage. Stalock was 20-11-4 record with a 2.67 GAA and .910 save percentage. Neither was up to Guerin’s standards, and he didn’t rule out looking outside the organization to fix it.

“If I have an opportunity to make it better, I will,” he said.

 

[GoldiFox]

Merzlikins is a UFA in 2 years. 13 Overall is waaaaay too much for a short-term solution who has just 35 NHL starts under his belt.

Gibson is a much better option for that pick.

 

[emptyNedder]

Is 13OA to much for Elvis?

Here is what I think might work. If Askarov is still available and (say) Ottawa wants him, then trade 13 for 22, 33 and 64.

Then trade 22 to CBJ for Elvis.

In effect, turning the high probability of Askarov in 3-4 years into Elvis for the next 2 (hopefully re-signing) when the team is certain to have Aho, TT, and Pesce.

All while adding a high 2nd and high 3rd.

 

[emptyNedder]

Merzlikins is a UFA in 2 years. 13 Overall is waaaaay too much for a short-term solution who has just 35 NHL starts under his belt.

Gibson is a much better option for that pick.

But gibson is not available. Whereas, Merzlikins is almost surely going in the expansion draft—in fact, I can see Seattle taking him then immediately re-signing him.

So Merzlikins might be had for a lower first (see option above) or even a second. Gibson is 13OA, plus top prospect, plus+.

 

[GIN ANTONIC]

But gibson is not available. Whereas, Merzlikins is almost surely going in the expansion draft—in fact, I can see Seattle taking him then immediately re-signing him.

So Merzlikins might be had for a lower first (see option above) or even a second. Gibson is 13OA, plus top prospect, plus+.

I just don’t think I give up a 1st for Elvis. It’s too much risk on a goalie with limited track record. If he turns into a pumpkin for whatever reason it’s not far off from Darling 2.0. Shorter term but colourable money and a very good asset being given up.

For a 2nd or comparable asset I’d consider it

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Lets pick Askarov and profit

 

[GoldiFox]

But gibson is not available. Whereas, Merzlikins is almost surely going in the expansion draft—in fact, I can see Seattle taking him then immediately re-signing him.

So Merzlikins might be had for a lower first (see option above) or even a second. Gibson is 13OA, plus top prospect, plus+.

Personally I'd rather pay up for a proven, long-term solution than pay a 1st for any unproven, short-term solution. I'm not sure Merzlikins is even much of an upgrade to Mrazek/Reimer. But a 2nd would seem to be a more realistic price point.

Outside of the Vatanen addition which was forced by injury, the Borg has always targeted long-term assets. If they are paying 1st round picks/prospects for anybody I'd expect them to be like Skjei, Keane, or Bokk who will help the team for more than a year or two.

 

[emptyNedder]

I just don’t think I give up a 1st for Elvis. It’s too much risk on a goalie with limited track record. If he turns into a pumpkin for whatever reason it’s not far off from Darling 2.0. Shorter term but colourable money and a very good asset being given up.

For a 2nd or comparable asset I’d consider it

I think closer to the deadline Columbus might take a second. Again, I am pretty sure he is going to Seattle. Moving at the draft will cost more.

1. I am still in the camp that history is clearly on the side of developing a goalie, so acquiring Gibson or Merzlikins is questionable.
2. The difference is possibly gaining assets while acquiring Merzlikins. Gibson will cost significant assets outset the pick.
3. Both will be part of the team while Aho & Co. are still together. Askarov will only be around for the last "sure" year in a best-case-scenario.

 

[GoldiFox]

I think closer to the deadline Columbus might take a second. Again, I am pretty sure he is going to Seattle. Moving at the draft will cost more.

1. I am still in the camp that history is clearly on the side of developing a goalie, so acquiring Gibson or Merzlikins is questionable.
2. The difference is possibly gaining assets while acquiring Merzlikins. Gibson will cost significant assets outset the pick.
3. Both will be part of the team while Aho & Co. are still together. Askarov will only be around for the last "sure" year in a best-case-scenario.

Having Askarov coming in as a potential franchise #1G for the last year or two of Aho's deal may be as good a reason as any that he would consider re-signing to compete for more Cups.

Upside and downside of the KHL/VHL returning well before the Draft happens is that we get to see how Askarov performs for a couple months this year. But so do other teams ahead of Carolina.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Hmmm what about a Merzlikins and Anderson for a prospect and next year’s 1st (top 10 protected)?

give them one of the goalies if they want

 

[Lempo]

Having Askarov coming in as a potential franchise #1G for the last year or two of Aho's deal may be as good a reason as any that he would consider re-signing to compete for more Cups.

I think it is important that we ration them so that his tummy isn't fully full at that time.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I don't think we'll take Quinn or Askarov even if both are there, but we shall see. I also don't see us trading down in the first.

I'm not sure I see much incentive for Columbus to move out either goalie, even with the expansion draft looming. Probably better to lose the worse of the excess goalies than something else. Especially since goalies typically don't return a ton in trades and I can't imagine anyone spending a first on Elvis.

 

[bleedgreen]

I’m still not remotely convinced this guy is dropping to us, and goalies take years regardless. I think he’s a really good prospect but I’m focusing on the more realistic forwards that’ll be in our range. And there’s a few. I don’t think we’ll have many guys dropping to us. If Lundell did that’s an obvious pick and good fit. I think Quinn will move up. I think our scouts favorite choice among Holloway, Jarvis, Zary and Mercer is likely our pick unless we really like something “off the board”. I don’t see us going after a d for obvious philosophical reasons, as well as the fact there’s quality forwards there which makes it a solid choice to take one.

 

[spockBokk]

I don't think we'll take Quinn or Askarov even if both are there, but we shall see. I also don't see us trading down in the first.

I agree that I don’t think they’d take Askarov so high due to the risk of taking a G that high, the fact that he may take 4-5yrs to be NHL ready and the fact that there will actually be a number of quality goalies on the UFA market this year in Lehner, Holtby, and possibly Markstrom. I also think they’ll sniff around Andersen from TOR since he could likely be had according to rumors, he’d only be owed $1M in cash despite a $5M cap hit and I think the braintrust may see him as a buy-low solution in net.

As far as Quinn goes, I think he’s gone before the Canes pick at 13. If not, he’s certainly worthy of consideration, but I don’t think they’d pick him over the likes of Jarvis or Mercer or even Zary.

 

[A Star is Burns]

I’m still not remotely convinced this guy is dropping to us, and goalies take years regardless. I think he’s a really good prospect but I’m focusing on the more realistic forwards that’ll be in our range. And there’s a few. I don’t think we’ll have many guys dropping to us. If Lundell did that’s an obvious pick and good fit. I think Quinn will move up. I think our scouts favorite choice among Holloway, Jarvis, Zary and Mercer is likely our pick unless we really like something “off the board”. I don’t see us going after a d for obvious philosophical reasons, as well as the fact there’s quality forwards there which makes it a solid choice to take one.

I tend to agree. I have no idea what Tulsky or analytics say about drafting a goalie that high, but for some reason I feel they will stay away. It could even just be due to the fact that like you say, goalies take a while typically and they don't always scream patient. I think you typically get pretty good bang for your buck getting forwards up high, so we'll load up there, and if need be, try to trade forwards out for a goalie in the future.

The one thing that could be good if we choose Askarov or any other Russians is we could have our own Ovi factor with Svech. It might be easier to entice Russian players to come over in a quick fashion having a dynamic Russian star on the team.

 

[geehaad]

With what Dundon has said regarding drafting defensemen in the first, you'd almost have to assume the sentiment is even stronger with drafting a goaltender. Compared to defensemen, they take longer to develop, are more of a crap shoot to project, are lesser valued in trade and free agency. They will have to believe Askarov is a future league-wide star who is only a year or two away before they spend that pick on him.