Prospect Info: Way too early 2020 draft options

[MinJaBen]

With what Dundon has said regarding drafting defensemen in the first, you'd almost have to assume the sentiment is even stronger with drafting a goaltender. Compared to defensemen, they take longer to develop, are more of a crap shoot to project, are lesser valued in trade and free agency. They will have to believe Askarov is a future league-wide star who is only a year or two away before they spend that pick on him.

I might be remembering wrong, but my recollection was that he didn't think we needed to take defensemen in the first because we were loaded and we could get good ones later in the draft or in free agency. None of that applies if the analysis of our current goaltending is that it needs an upgrade. We certainly haven't been able to draft a good one in decades, and we haven't been able to get a "good one" in free agency either. Petr and James are decent, but not much better than replacement level.

 

[bleedgreen]

I might be remembering wrong, but my recollection was that he didn't think we needed to take defensemen in the first because we were loaded and we could get good ones later in the draft or in free agency. None of that applies if the analysis of our current goaltending is that it needs an upgrade. We certainly haven't been able to draft a good one in decades, and we haven't been able to get a "good one" in free agency either. Petr and James are decent, but not much better than replacement level.

Drafting one this high is a long term solution to a short term problem. Many here would want this guy to develop early and push for him to be what he’s supposed to be within a couple of years. When he probably won’t be that until he’s 24 or 25.

Its not an awful idea but I think the wiser overall draft strategy is keep trying in the other rounds. Or if we had a second first rounder you can always take a chance there.

Like has been said, if we’re convinced this guy is legit and will be so in two to three years then why not? That requires belief of that and for the guy to actually drop that far. Just notably more likely we’re taking a forward.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Dundon upped Russian scouting.

im sure we got a good look at Koch’s progress and how Askarov compares. Other notable Russians are Amirov and khusnutdinov

 

[FlyingSquirrels]

When discussing G options, I have a feeling many posters on this board are not familiar with our history concerning Frederik Andersen.

And FWIW, our pick is simple: I think someone will fall and this braintrust will grab that someone. They seemed to do that last year as almost every pick was great value at it's spot. I trust these guys.

 

[BB88]

I’m still not remotely convinced this guy is dropping to us, and goalies take years regardless. I think he’s a really good prospect but I’m focusing on the more realistic forwards that’ll be in our range. And there’s a few. I don’t think we’ll have many guys dropping to us. If Lundell did that’s an obvious pick and good fit. I think Quinn will move up. I think our scouts favorite choice among Holloway, Jarvis, Zary and Mercer is likely our pick unless we really like something “off the board”. I don’t see us going after a d for obvious philosophical reasons, as well as the fact there’s quality forwards there which makes it a solid choice to take one.

I think people are seeing Knight and Askarov as 2-3 year guys which would fit your core well.

Would be nice to have a #1G running on cheap elc/rfa contract once Aho starts his UFA contract.

It’s not very easy to find game breaking franchise talent around 13, leaving with Askarov would give you that feeling and leaving the draft as one of the winners.

You have an amazing core, hitting with a goalie could set you for a 10 year playoff run

 

[GoldiFox]

When discussing G options, I have a feeling many posters on this board are not familiar with our history concerning Frederik Andersen.

And FWIW, our pick is simple: I think someone will fall and this braintrust will grab that someone. They seemed to do that last year as almost every pick was great value at it's spot. I trust these guys.

What history with Andersen? The few hardcore fans on this board who remember that the Canes even drafted him in the 6th round? As it was noted earlier - none of the majority owner, GM, management team, or coach that drafted Askarov still exists in Carolina so there is no real history.

I agree that is plausible that someone falls and this group isn't one to overthink it.

I wonder if Florida would consider moving Spencer Knight for #13 (especially if Askarov was on the board) given their signing of Bobrovsky. It gives them a longer timeline and a better mentor situation when Askarov is ready. For the Canes it expedites their potential #1 goalie by a year.

 

[bleedgreen]

I think people are seeing Knight and Askarov as 2-3 year guys which would fit your core well.

Would be nice to have a #1G running on cheap elc/rfa contract once Aho starts his UFA contract.

It’s not very easy to find game breaking franchise talent around 13, leaving with Askarov would give you that feeling and leaving the draft as one of the winners.

You have an amazing core, hitting with a goalie could set you for a 10 year playoff run

I think 2-3 year goalies are unicorns on the hot/crazy scale, but I respect the possibility that they exist. A guy can dream.

 

[DougieSmash]

I think 2-3 year goalies are unicorns on the hot/crazy scale, but I respect the possibility that they exist. A guy can dream.

Pretty much this. Exactly why I don't want to spend the pick on goalie.

I mean, we still lack good second line center (not sold on Tro, especially long term). Necas is on his way but still very raw. Maybe he could be RW, don't know. We still lack legit top 6 winger. I'll take that over goalie.

 

[geehaad]

who remember that the Canes even drafted him in the 6th round.

7th

goddammit

7th

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I would be concerned about acquiring either of Columbus’ goalies. They, like Bob, are a product of Torts’ system. Columbus is 3rd lowest in High Danger Chances against, 6th in xGA, and blocked shots are very high. The system doesn’t care if you have the puck or if you try to shoot from the outside (why they lose Corsi almost every game). They are going to block your shot or give up really percentage shots. Their defenders are packed in and clear any rebound.
Korpisalo seemed to benefit the most with a 0.34 GSAA. Basically league average.
Elvis on the other hand was 5th in the league.

 

[BB88]

I think 2-3 year goalies are unicorns on the hot/crazy scale, but I respect the possibility that they exist. A guy can dream.

They are rare, but these 2 are considered rare goalie prospects.

The core would be insane with a franchise goalie added

 

[emptyNedder]

I would be concerned about acquiring either of Columbus’ goalies. They, like Bob, are a product of Torts’ system

Elvis wasn't in Tort's system previously.

His numbers for 22 World Championship games: 2.20 GAA, .927 sv%
His numbers for 216 NLA games: 2.44 GAA, .921 sv%.
His numbers for 50 NLA playoff games: 2.40 GAA, .929 sv % (this is approximation since both NHL.com and Elite Prospects has incomplete data).

 

[DougieSmash]

My final out of nowhere prediction. I expect Holtz to slip.

1. Rangers - Lafreniere
2. Kings - Byfield
3. Senators - Rossi
4. Red Wings - Stutzle
5. Senators - Drysdale
6. Ducks - Lundell
7. Devils - Raymond
8. Sabres - Perfetti
9. Wild - Jarvis
10. Jets - Sanderson
11. Preds - Quinn
12. Panthers - Holtz
13. Canes - Bordeleau or Zarry
14. Oilers - Yaskarov
15. Pens - Gunler

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Elvis wasn't in Tort's system previously.

His numbers for 22 World Championship games: 2.20 GAA, .927 sv%
His numbers for 216 NLA games: 2.44 GAA, .921 sv%.
His numbers for 50 NLA playoff games: 2.40 GAA, .929 sv % (this is approximation since both NHL.com and Elite Prospects has incomplete data).

they arent in Torts system their entire life. I am talking about NHL play. Elvis has great numbers. Like, Bob, his numbers will look better there than elsewhere because of the system they play.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

My final out of nowhere prediction. I expect Holtz to slip.

1. Rangers - Lafreniere
2. Kings - Byfield
3. Senators - Rossi
4. Red Wings - Stutzle
5. Senators - Drysdale
6. Ducks - Lundell
7. Devils - Raymond
8. Sabres - Perfetti
9. Wild - Jarvis
10. Jets - Sanderson
11. Preds - Quinn
12. Panthers - Holtz
13. Canes - Bordeleau or Zarry
14. Oilers - Yaskarov
15. Pens - Gunler

if we dont trade down to take either one of those, especially Bordeleau, then all the good things that the staff did last season was a one hit wonder. Bordeleau is the 29th best NA skater and you have 1 EU goalie and at least 6 european skaters in front of him. A 2nd round talent at 13 would be bad. Zary is 15th and has 1 EU goalie and 4 European skates in front of him.

 

[DougieSmash]

if we dont trade down to take either one of those, especially Bordeleau, then all the good things that the staff did last season was a one hit wonder. Bordeleau is the 29th best NA skater and you have 1 EU goalie and at least 6 european skaters in front of him. A 2nd round talent at 13 would be bad. Zary is 15th and has 1 EU goalie and 4 European skates in front of him.

Just a hunch. Not saying anything. Call it prediction.

 

[bleedgreen]

I hope we don’t consider trading down, after being gifted that pick. I’ve never thought trading down in the first round is a very good idea, and it’s worse the higher you get unless it’s a crap draft.... and I still wouldn’t do it. Take the best player you can get your mitts on. If anything trade up.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I hope we don’t consider trading down, after being gifted that pick. I’ve never thought trading down in the first round is a very good idea, and it’s worse the higher you get unless it’s a crap draft.... and I still wouldn’t do it. Take the best player you can get your mitts on. If anything trade up.

Im in the opposite boat.

If you believe you can get your guy at a lower pick and get more assets then do it. The draft is a guessing game and the more guesses you have the better.

 

[MinJaBen]

Im in the opposite boat.

If you believe you can get your guy at a lower pick and get more assets then do it. The draft is a guessing game and the more guesses you have the better.

The danger in that approach is if you are looking at one guy and you don't know if you can get him. He could be gone and you get two inferior picks. Take BPA unless you know you don't want the guy someone else definitely wants and you are happy with several guys that will be later. Then trade back. That works pretty good as you get into the saddle point of the value curve and later. I'm not sold that is the right strategy at 13th in the draft.

 

[spockBokk]

I’d be shocked if they trade down from 13. They’re guaranteed a very good prospect at that spot. Now, I’d be surprised if they don’t trade down a time or two in the later rounds like they did last year in order to pick up more picks, especially since they’ll be giving up a 3rd or 4th to NJD and their 5th to Vegas.

 

[A Star is Burns]

Yeah, up high in the 1st, I'd rather make the pick, even if it doesn't line up with the beloved scouting services. In the 2nd and beyond, trade down if you get a good offer like we did a time or two last year. Unless your plan is to pick Phil Fookin Paradis. Then trade down as if your life depended on it.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

The danger in that approach is if you are looking at one guy and you don't know if you can get him. He could be gone and you get two inferior picks. Take BPA unless you know you don't want the guy someone else definitely wants and you are happy with several guys that will be later. Then trade back. That works pretty good as you get into the saddle point of the value curve and later. I'm not sold that is the right strategy at 13th in the draft.

Im not arguing against your point. The entire draft is a risk. No one is a guarantee and your guy could be snatched up every round.
The approach is: if your number 1 dude is there at 13 you run to the podium. If you are into your top 5 and mathematically one will still be there if you trade down, do it.

 

[bleedgreen]

Im not arguing against your point. The entire draft is a risk. No one is a guarantee and your guy could be snatched up every round.
The approach is: if your number 1 dude is there at 13 you run to the podium. If you are into your top 5 and mathematically one will still be there if you trade down, do it.

I gotta stand by it. Always take number three on your list instead of hoping numbers 4-7 are there or whatever. Your list is there for a reason, and it’s order exists for a reason. Stick to your list up that high. I can’t think of many...if any times I’ve seen it worth it in the first round especially in the top 15. Of course sometimes the 22nd pick ends up being amazing but it just works out the higher the pick the higher the chance of success. The darts at the dart board concept usually doesn’t start for me until at least the mid to late 20’s.....but personally I wouldn’t do it until mid to late in the second round. There’s no math to that it’s just how I feel about it.

 

[geehaad]

Always take number three on your list instead of hoping numbers 4-7 are there

That assumes there's a clearly defined list, as opposed to what GoCanes is imagining (a group of equally-valued players). I'm guessing there are scenarios where you hit your pick and there's one guy you value above all others, and you just do it baby...then other situations where you hit your pick and you're like "I could go for any of these 5 guys" and maybe that's when you trade down.

 

[bleedgreen]

That assumes there's a clearly defined list, as opposed to what GoCanes is imagining (a group of equally-valued players). I'm guessing there are scenarios where you hit your pick and there's one guy you value above all others, and you just do it baby...then other situations where you hit your pick and you're like "I could go for any of these 5 guys" and maybe that's when you trade down.

I don’t disagree there but in my head that doesn’t happen often until you’re at least late in the first round. Top 15 imo there’s typically an order you have. Or should have.