Prospect Info: Way too early 2020 draft options

[Helsinki Hurricanes]

we have be so volume heavy lately that perhaps it would be prudent to consider moving up if you have a target you really love. this borg thing we have doesn't strike me as a "draft a goalie" type. we've treated that position like an afterthought for the most part

I have for a while thought the same. It would make sense to trade up and package picks / prospects together for more quality with reduced quantity as Canes already have a good young core and plenty of prospects.

I think it's more likely they trade couple spots down than up just like the last draft. With this organisations track record that's completely justifiable as from pure value perspective trading down is usually the best option (outside of lottery picks).

The only problem with that approach is that if the organisations is good in drafting and developing the players, they eventually end with more potential NHLers than what to do with. Normally this would be a problem as the amount of rookies per year and limited roster spots mean you can't give a spot to every deserving kid.

The genius part is that instead of going for the easy solution (but with bad value) of trading up and compiling picks together, Canes have figured a better alternative by trading leftover prospects for actual players. Nic Roy was good but not spectacular -> traded for 2/3 C Haula. Haula, Priskie (good but no roster spot), Wallmark (well developed later pick by Canes) -> traded for potentially elite 2C Vinny. Also Kuokkanen for Vatanen has similar logic.

 

[Blueline Bomber]

Given how Ned hasn't really taken the reins as hoped, Askarov seems like a dream pick.

 

[MinJaBen]

Given how Ned hasn't really taken the reins as hoped, Askarov seems like a dream pick.

I think the Wild or the Preds will take him before he falls to our spot.

 

[DaveG]

I think the Wild or the Preds will take him before he falls to our spot.

Yeah I'm not seeing Askarov on the board at 13. Chicago being out of the way is one less team that might but I wouldn't be shocked if Minnesota looks that direction.

 

[Canes]

I don't really follow prospects anymore other than the top few guys each draft so I'm pretty much fine with whatever they do. BPA, trade back, trade up... at least I don't think we have to worry about picking another Paradis. We've been able to do fairly well with at least getting NHL talent with our first rounders, though I guess the jury is still out on Bean and Suzuki but they both seem to be trending in a good direction. Just from some quick research we should at least have several good options at #13.

 

[Surrounded By Ahos]

So the Canes spent $4-$6m (not exactly sure) to obtain Brady Skjei and move froM 24-31 down to 13 in the draft? I’ll take it.

Dundon so cheep

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

I wouldn't put money on this team trading up, even if it wanted to. No team possessing a Top 10 pick has moved down since 2008. A Day 2 pick or two is not much of an incentive once a team gets comfortable with the prospects available in that area.

I wouldn't put on the team trading down either. The same logic seems to apply. Only 3 teams were able to trade within the 11-15 range in the 2010s (Soderstrom, Brown and Girgensons).

 

[57special]

I would be stunned if MN takes Askarov, instead of a C like Lundell. Khakonen was the Goalie of the Year in the AHL, and is ready for NHL time.
Have fun with the pick!

 

[BB88]

Pick Askarov and be set for 10 years

Aho-Svec
Slavin-Pesce
Askarov

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Staring at Pesce trades and Rangers’ rosters with Laf on it is already old.

Im going to guess we trade the pick if Askarov is there and get a good return.

 

[Chan790]

I'm going to guess we trade the pick if Askarov is there and get a good return.

I will lose my mind if this FO continues to not take our goaltending weakness seriously.

Don't be cute. Just take the ******* goalie.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I will lose my mind if this FO continues to not take our goaltending weakness seriously.

Don't be cute. Just take the ******* goalie.

Understand your point. They may put their eggs in Kochetkov and Makieniemi’s baskets. As they are 2 years closer to playing here.

 

[MinJaBen]

Understand your point. They may put their eggs in Kochetkov and Makieniemi’s baskets. As they are 2 years closer to playing here.

Are they though? Ned is two years closer to playing here....and two years closer to never being here. This kid is "supposed" to be the best goalie prospect since Price. Better than Hart and he is already the starter in Philly. He could be here in a year or two while Koch and Makemeasandwich are still overseas.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Are they though? Ned is two years closer to playing here....and two years closer to never being here. This kid is "supposed" to be the best goalie prospect since Price. Better than Hart and he is already the starter in Philly. He could be here in a year or two while Koch and Makemeasandwich are still overseas.

Makemeasandwich. Lol

I can only plan using typical planning factors. He could be a Price and play here 2 years after drafting or he could 4-5 years out. Who knows.

i do know this team loves getting value out of everything. If they get a shot at getting more, I would see it happening.

 

[emptyNedder]

I will lose my mind if this FO continues to not take our goaltending weakness seriously.

Don't be cute. Just take the ******* goalie.

Goaltending weakness might be misunderstood. If you look at Cup champions the past 15 years, they all had good goaltenders, but the only 1st rounder in the bunch was MAF—and only the 08-09 Cup was really his as the last two were more Murray. All of Crawford, Quick, Holtby, Binnington, and Murray were taken 3rd round or later.

However, almost all of the winning teams had a really good 2C. Necas might develop into one; Suzuki has potential. That said, this draft offers three players who look nearly perfect for that role.

Zary has the potential to be a Horvat type, maybe even a poor-man's ROR.
Brisson looks to have the NHL potential to produce like Couture.
Niederbach reminds me a lot of Krejci (who I mentioned as possibly the deciding factor in the Bruins series).

If one of Montreal or Ottawa really wants Askarov, then the Canes could trade 13 for 16 + 40 + 61; or 13 for 22 + 33 + 53.

Carolina could draft the second best goalie prospect (Commesso). It is a slight gamble. But even if Askarov is another Vasilevsky instead of Campbell or Pickard, there is the almost equally high possibility of Commesso becoming Quick, Holtby, or Binnington instead of Oscar Dansk.

Trading down allows the Canes to get a good goalie prospect PLUS two more shots at the elusive 2C, which appears equally important to being a Cup winner.

 

[MinJaBen]

Goaltending weakness might be misunderstood. If you look at Cup champions the past 15 years, they all had good goaltenders, but the only 1st rounder in the bunch was MAF—and only the 08-09 Cup was really his as the last two were more Murray. All of Crawford, Quick, Holtby, Binnington, and Murray were taken 3rd round or later.

Yes, but another Cup champions goalie stat is that a high percentage of cup champions win with a guy they drafted rather than a guy from a trade. Who of our goalie prospects looks anywhere close to being that kind of goalie? Not a one in my opinion at this point. Even Koch from last year took a step back in development according to the prospect guys. It is the most obvious hole in our prospect pool at this point. I won't say they will take him, but I hope if he is there that they don't just skip past him because of the "well you can find goalies anywhere in the draft" line of thinking.

 

[emptyNedder]

Yes, but another Cup champions goalie stat is that a high percentage of cup champions win with a guy they drafted rather than a guy from a trade. Who of our goalie prospects looks anywhere close to being that kind of goalie?[/
Totally agree—I think I was the first to make the point that 14 of the last 15 Cups went to team's with goalies they either drafted or had in the organization for 5+ years (Tim Thomas). I think having a sense that you are part of the organization is important to a goalie's psyche. Just my hunch.

That is why I think not giving Ned more of a shot is a big mistake. Sure he hasn't looked that good, but neither did Ward, Binnington, nor even Quick for that matter, before they became big-time winners. That is why I have always argued that Ned's record of producing wins and championships is often lost with too much focus on sv%.

It is a gamble either way—Cup winners need solid goalie play AND a productive 2C (or in Malkin's case an elite 2C).

 

[spockBokk]

I seem to remember there being some speculation that the Canes may have used their 1st last year on Kochetkov, but the fact that Suzuki was there forced their hand to select him as they had him rated so highly and totally expected him to go much earlier. That, and the fact they had another crack at the Russian goalie at 36OA. They gambled that the guy they perhaps were going to take at 28OA would be there later to secure a player high on their list.

Now at 13OA, there’s going to be very good players available. It’ll be interesting to see what what they do. I don’t seem them trading down, and I’d be mildly surprised if they end up taking Askarov over a falling forward (maybe Perfetti or Rossi, who knows) or one of the second tier guys in Jarvis/Zary/Mercer.

 

[bleedgreen]

I think we’re looking at guys like Jarvis or Holloway.

The top ten guys being mentioned aren’t going to fall. There’s never been any whispers about them.

 

[zman77]

Askarov would be a heck of a pick @ #13. He's a franchise type player.
Another guy who plays the 'Canes' Way' is Dawson Mercer.
Dawson Mercer:
Excellent skater with a high motor and Top 6 skill level. Complete player!
He played on Team Canada's Gold Medal Team last season.
Here's Oil Knight's Scouting Report:
Dawson Mercer is another one of my favourite prospects. He has a non-stop motor, great hockey IQ, is an excellent skater, and a very solid 2-way playmaker. He’s not quite as dynamic as Jarvis but very similar in that he brings a ton of speed & skill to the table. Another late 2001 birthdate, he and Jack Quinn are neck and neck for me but I gave the slight edge to Quinn just because of his goal scoring production. But make no mistake, Mercer is an extremely talented kid with a lot of elite qualities himself. He can stickhandle in a phone booth and no one works harder than him on the ice. He also has great vision and will sacrifice his body to make a play. One of the most well-rounded players in the Top 15.
Top 31 List – THE OILKNIGHT PROSPECT NETWORK

 

[GoldiFox]

I think we’re looking at guys like Jarvis or Holloway.

The top ten guys being mentioned aren’t going to fall. There’s never been any whispers about them.

I'd agree if I had to project what the Canes were looking for I think their guy would be Holloway. Already 200+ lbs and he uses it. High-end hockey sense. Nothing overly flashy, just a solid all-around game. Seems like a Rod type to me.

I wonder what NCAA guys will do when college hockey is cancelled. I can't see top prospects sitting out a year. Maybe more follow Drury to Europe.

Jarvis and Rossi would be ranked a lot higher if they weren't 5'9"-5'10". For better or worse there are GMs who won't risk high picks on smaller guys.

The Canes had to game plan for pick #19 when the Draft nearly happened in June. I do wonder if that makes it any more likely that they might trade back given the opportunity.

 

[SlavinAway]

If Rossi or Perfetti is still on the board it would be difficult to pass them up but those are the only two I would take over Askarov.

Sure goalie picks are voodoo but Askarov seems to be the real deal. I've seen many say he's a righty Vasilevsky and is potentially only a year away from NHL duty.

 

[bleedgreen]

I'd agree if I had to project what the Canes were looking for I think their guy would be Holloway. Already 200+ lbs and he uses it. High-end hockey sense. Nothing overly flashy, just a solid all-around game. Seems like a Rod type to me.

I wonder what NCAA guys will do when college hockey is cancelled. I can't see top prospects sitting out a year. Maybe more follow Drury to Europe.

Jarvis and Rossi would be ranked a lot higher if they weren't 5'9"-5'10". For better or worse there are GMs who won't risk high picks on smaller guys.

The Canes had to game plan for pick #19 when the Draft nearly happened in June. I do wonder if that makes it any more likely that they might trade back given the opportunity.

Agreed a lot on Rod and Holloway. He’s big, fast, forechecks very well and like you said he’s physical. And good at it. A really good skater. He has pretty high end skill too he’s just not a finisher at this point. To me he’s got a little Kreider minus the shot going on.

Rossi isn’t making it to us. I just don’t see it. Jarvis because he’s not only small but he has to play that way to some extent should be around where we are. He’s way more dynamic with much better skill than Holloway. He’s also a pretty tenacious on the forecheck. I think Rod would also like him but would only want to use him if he was productive.

Holloway is pretty much a lock to be an nhl player, just can’t say which line. Jarvis is top six or bust, but looks pretty damn good. Reminds me of Tyler Johnson.

I wouldn’t regret either as of today, but I lean to Jarvis.

 

[SvechneJerk]

I mean, I get the 2C or 1G conundrum...

Long term, we need a 2C, which Tro is filling, at the moment. Maybe we re-sign him once his contract is up. Waiting in the wings - theoretically - are both Necas & Suzuki, right? Shoot, for what we know, Rees could turn out to be that.

Goalie-wise, do we have anyone we have a ton of confidence in that could pan out to be a legit 1G? We have some possibilities in Kochetkov & Makiniemi, but outside of that? I like what someone said sometime back (Hank, maybe?) that until we have a definitive solution there, we draft a couple every year.

Can we all agree that the Borg likes to "swing for the fences" on picks? Doesn't Askarov seem to fit that definition to a 'T' on the position we're weakest at?

Just my thoughts, this morning.

 

[Chrispy]

Can we all agree that the Borg likes to "swing for the fences" on picks? Doesn't Askarov seem to fit that definition to a 'T' on the position we're weakest at?

Just my thoughts, this morning.

Yes, they like to swing for the fences. However, we have also seen their draft board may not resemble the general board (they felt Suzuki was a top 10 pick last year, for instance.)

It will be interesting to see where Askarov slots. The fact the rest of this year's goalie class is relatively weak doesn't push him up for me; I'm more interested in whether they rate him as a "generational" pick up there with Knight last year. If so, I can see Carolina jumping at him or even moving up with the draft picks and/or prospects in hand. (Bean as a draft day chip?) If not, it could be they aren't as thrilled with Askarov specifically or they may simply feel the position is too unpredictable for such a big investment. It certainly seems they feel that way on the UFA market, but the draft may be different.