Proposal: Viability in Trading Mantha to New Jersey or Buffalo for their 1st Rounder?

[The Zetterberg Era]

I definitely don't want to trade him. I think there could come a time/offer that SY couldn't refuse, though. Anything is possible. If it does happen we're getting a young blue chip building block I'm certain.

Every player has a price, well probably except for McDavid right now. I would deal him for a massive over-payment. I think I threw out 9th overall, Romanov and another +. Two top 10 draft picks from the Devils might intrigue me enough if the draft is playing out the right way.

Not looking for a fair trade for sure at this moment. I am looking to extend him and at least if we are trading him doing so after a fully healthy season with Mantha - Larkin - Bertuzzi together to pump his value up to the maximum.

 

[Winger98]

No reason for Detroit not to ask him, anyway. Sure, he could do that and stretch to UFA and that’s probably a bigger payday for him. 52 million in the bank seems pretty damn good when you take the Labanc situation into view and the C-19 issue.

Mantha shouldn’t go for it if he wants top dollar and to make as much as possible. Taking the contract to the end of the frozen cap is probably his more prudent move. But if he really wants to stay in Detroit long term... there are certainly worse things than having a guaranteed contract that gives you 52M and leaves you as a UFA at 33, which if you age gracefully could be young enough for another contract

Oh, we can definitely throw it at him and see if he bites. I'm just saying that him signing that shouldn't be something we expect or demand. The guy might want to stay here but...this team is bad. Even if he's fine with the money, I can see him wanting to see how the next year or two goes to see if he wants to be entrenched in it.

At the same time, if he only wants to sign a one or two year deal, how comfortable should the Wings be that he'll sign long term after that? I'm expecting something like a three or four year deal where the Wings get some UFA years and Mantha still has the ability to hit the open market before he is past 30.

 

[SirloinUB]

Oh, we can definitely throw it at him and see if he bites. I'm just saying that him signing that shouldn't be something we expect or demand. The guy might want to stay here but...this team is bad. Even if he's fine with the money, I can see him wanting to see how the next year or two goes to see if he wants to be entrenched in it.

At the same time, if he only wants to sign a one or two year deal, how comfortable should the Wings be that he'll sign long term after that? I'm expecting something like a three or four year deal where the Wings get some UFA years and Mantha still has the ability to hit the open market before he is past 30.

at some point don’t we gotta trust Yzerman to do his job? Like, yea, if Mantha is only willing to sign for a year or two we have to listen to find a good offer but everything he has said suggests he is interested in a long term deal. Until there is a reason to actually think otherwise I’m planning on building around Mantha. If another team wants him they’ll have to wow me, otherwise I’ll keep him around a long time.

I truly believe in Mantha’s abilities. As long as he is interested in being here long term (which he has said), I would be excited to make a big bet on him.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

He's the best scorer on Detroit and one of only a couple threats to actually score on any given night. Literally the only thing holding him back is his health, he's scored at a 50+ point pace ever since he's been called up. It's not like he has debilitating back or knee issues, he has random unlucky injuries. Maybe you could even get him under contract a little cheaper cause of the injuries. I would much rather gamble with him staying healthy rather than trying to pick a player better than him. Trading him for the 8th overall pick would be such a stupid gamble and would likely piss off the few remaining good players on the team.

That's a big "only thing" though. Especially right before the biggest contract of his career....

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

They concern me, trading him for magic beans (or just a bean in one pick) concerns me as well.

I want to know what is coming back and 7 or 8 isn't enough for me at all.

Holtz + for Mantha and using his money to get a FA C or D IMO is a better route.

 

[The Real Pastafarian]

I understand the logic behind trading Mantha now (or at least after we sign him to a team-friendly contract) -- his value will be very high. I wish we'd traded AA a year before we did (which I only say now with the benefit of hindsight, because if we'd traded AA when his value was high and he was showing promise, I would have shat myself.)

But we're not going to get anyone in this draft at 7 or 8 that will ever be as good as Mantha. It's not enough, not close.

Still, I don't want us to make the same mistake we made with AA, and hold onto assets too long. Maybe 7 or 8 in this draft, plus that team's first-rounder next year. I might consider that.

 

[lidstromiscool]

That's a big "only thing" though. Especially right before the biggest contract of his career....

If only there was a way to have a player not count against the salary cap if they had a long term injury.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

That's a big "only thing" though. Especially right before the biggest contract of his career....

His "health" is caused by three fights. Mantha got injured against Witter, against Nemeth, and by being bodyslammed by Muzzin.

His "only thing" is completely not a worry.

 

[odin1981]

If we want to move him is best after a beige deal eating 2-3 year's of his UFA. We can wait and hope he gets healthy to increase his value as well. But it would be best to collect 3-4 more assets from draft's over the next 2-3 years first.

 

[MBH]

Which is why Mantha shouldn't be going for it. His value is down because of the C19 mess and some freak injuries. He gets as big a deal as he can for two or three years, let the league finances stabilize, and can then look at cashing a bigger check.

Thing is - Mantha's career-high is 25-23-48.
He's kind of in a tough spot. Nobody's paying him what he's probably worth.

 

[Snuggs]

Holtz + for Mantha and using his money to get a FA C or D IMO is a better route.

This is going backwards. Nothing says the money you use for Mantha will even get you a better player in UFA or that they'll sign here and the draft is a complete crap-shoot. Common.

Bird in hand is better than two in the bush sometimes, you're definitely looking for two in the bush willingly trading Mantha away just for an oppertunitty.

Circumstance might force it anyways but to just do it. Wow...

Really interested in who you think would sign here that's actually better than Mantha.

 

[Snuggs]

I understand the logic behind trading Mantha now (or at least after we sign him to a team-friendly contract) -- his value will be very high. I wish we'd traded AA a year before we did (which I only say now with the benefit of hindsight, because if we'd traded AA when his value was high and he was showing promise, I would have shat myself.)

But we're not going to get anyone in this draft at 7 or 8 that will ever be as good as Mantha. It's not enough, not close.

Still, I don't want us to make the same mistake we made with AA, and hold onto assets too long. Maybe 7 or 8 in this draft, plus that team's first-rounder next year. I might consider that.

Good point but a little off. AA was a good trade candidate even a year ago because.... MOST, MOST people knew that 30 goal season was fools gold, and he had contract/organizational issues the year/season prior. The Writting was a little bit on the wall that AA wanted a big contract, wasn't going to be team friendly, and even on the ice he's a selfish player.

Mantha is almost the complete opposite this year. He is generating offense for the team basically by himself at times. He sticks up for players, He wants to sign long-term(according to him). Without the freak injury by the Muzzin body slam that broke a rib... dude was on pace for 30 goals, 40 assist. I mean it's not like his body is breaking down and his tearing muscle/ligaments. These are legit freak type injury's through fights. Broken hands/bones.

There were people cheerleading last offseason to trade AA because they knew his value would almost never be higher than that point cause of the 30 goals. Mantha is quite the opposite. I think his value is low right now, 60 plus game season and this dude points up serious goals/point.

If anyone watched games and doesn't just stat watch, when Mantha played he was easily, EASILY the most talented offensive player we had this year. An, he's still improving. I mean he's literally becoming the goal scoring, offensive guy EVERYONE wants to sign/draft. Idk why we'd trade him away outside of contract issues or huge over pay.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Thing is - Mantha's career-high is 25-23-48.
He's kind of in a tough spot. Nobody's paying him what he's probably worth.

So which is it? Is he going to get too big of a contract and he’s going to break down early because he’s a big body or is he in a tough spot and not going to get an appropriate salary?

 

[Henkka]

So which is it? Is he going to get too big of a contract and he’s going to break down early because he’s a big body or is he in a tough spot and not going to get an appropriate salary?

Full seasons usually mean very much on contract negotiations. His scoring pace with merged seasons is pretty good, but he won't get that level of contract.

Mantha will be bargain in everybody's eyes whatever deal he agrees.

 

[Mlotek]

Thing is - Mantha's career-high is 25-23-48.
He's kind of in a tough spot. Nobody's paying him what he's probably worth.

Evander Kane got a 7x7 deal on a 54 point year.

He had a 56 point was a career high at that time.

1 time broke 30 goal mark (came close a few times)

Broke the 50 point mark a total of 2 times with a 7 season gap in between. SJ still gave him that deal.

Granted it was a stupid deal, but teams overpay for goal-scorers.

Jeff Skinner anyone? With his concussion issues he is 1 hit away from being the next Franzen.
Or if he continues his play the next Ville Leino.

 

[The Real Pastafarian]

MOST people knew that 30 goal season was fools gold

I didn't know that and still don't. It won't surprise me a bit if AA scores 30 goals a couple more times in his career. He has remarkable speed, explosiveness, and talent.

he had contract/organizational issues the year/season prior

That's why he had to be traded. Because Holland had handed out big money to useless squids like Abdelkader and then decided to play hard-ball with one of the most talented young players we had. Stupid.

About AA you said:

even on the ice he's a selfish player.

and then, speaking of Mantha you said

He sticks up for players

And yet it was AA who came charging out and stuck up for Mantha, when that big dumb shit-head from Toronto picked Mantha up and dropped him on his head and shoulder.

Given Mantha's fragility, he needs do a little less sticking up for people. Mantha's great, when he's shooting the puck, not when he's punching people and breaking his damned fingers.

When AA gets a breakaway goal he's a selfish player, when Mantha or Larkin do it, they're "generating offense for the team basically by himself at times." That's another reason we had to trade AA -- he was under-appreciated not just by the brass, but by the fans. I wish him well. I just wish we'd traded him when his value was higher.

I mean, what's AA supposed to do, set up Abdelkader or Neilssen, who can't score to save their damned lives? We need more selfish players who score 30 fool's gold goals in a season.

So we disagree about the value of AA. Still, I know he had to be traded.

But you and I agree about Mantha -- I agree he's our best offensive player. He's also got one of the highest hockey IQs on the team, always in the right place at the right time, great vision, makes brilliant passes. He just needs to use that big hockey brain to let someone less talented do most of the face-punching. I would only accept a trade of Mantha if it brought us 2 first-rounders, maybe one this year and one next year. And if we're talking 7th or 8th overall for this year's pick...I don't know, maybe I still wouldn't do it. There's not going to be anyone that promising left at 7 or 8 this year. We're liable to end up with two OK players for one great player.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

I didn't know that and still don't. It won't surprise me a bit if AA scores 30 goals a couple more times in his career. He has remarkable speed, explosiveness, and talent.



That's why he had to be traded. Because Holland had handed out big money to useless squids like Abdelkader and then decided to play hard-ball with one of the most talented young players we had. Stupid.

About AA you said:



and then, speaking of Mantha you said



And yet it was AA who came charging out and stuck up for Mantha, when that big dumb shit-head from Toronto picked Mantha up and dropped him on his head and shoulder.

Given Mantha's fragility, he needs do a little less sticking up for people. Mantha's great, when he's shooting the puck, not when he's punching people and breaking his damned fingers.

When AA gets a breakaway goal he's a selfish player, when Mantha or Larkin do it, they're "generating offense for the team basically by himself at times." That's another reason we had to trade AA -- he was under-appreciated not just by the brass, but by the fans. I wish him well. I just wish we'd traded him when his value was higher.

I mean, what's AA supposed to do, set up Abdelkader or Neilssen, who can't score to save their damned lives? We need more selfish players who score 30 fool's gold goals in a season.

So we disagree about the value of AA. Still, I know he had to be traded.

But you and I agree about Mantha -- I agree he's our best offensive player. He's also got one of the highest hockey IQs on the team, always in the right place at the right time, great vision, makes brilliant passes. He just needs to use that big hockey brain to let someone less talented do most of the face-punching. I would only accept a trade of Mantha if it brought us 2 first-rounders, maybe one this year and one next year. And if we're talking 7th or 8th overall for this year's pick...I don't know, maybe I still wouldn't do it. There's not going to be anyone that promising left at 7 or 8 this year. We're liable to end up with two OK players for one great player.

Stood up for him? He f***ing knee on knee'd the guy. Oh wait... no, he knee on knee'd ANOTHER guy who had nothing to do with the play.

Mantha's fragility is that for his size, he's an atrocious fighter. He's not fragile in any other way than not being good at throwing hands.

The issue with AA isn't that he gets breakaway goals and that means he is selfish. It's that he was continually looking for the breakout chance. He was looking for the transition opportunity and not playing positional defense. Larkin is a playmaker and looks for the other guys on his line and backchecks like crazy. Mantha's "did it all by himself" plays are where he gets the puck by the sidewall in the offensive zone and he either bullcharges the net or snipes a corner. AA has all of the physical tools to be a top ten wing in the league. He's got McDavid speed, good size, and damn good hands. But he's just got a ten cent head for anything except for transition opportunities.

AA wasn't underappreciated. He continually got more ice time and more opportunities than a player with his erstwhile focus really should... because he's so damn talented. They gave him time as a 2C... and he paid them back by getting beaten like a drum in the faceoff dot. AA was more flash than substance. He certainly was not a garbage player, but he makes splashy plays and tanks easy ones. So if you want to support him, he's amazing for giving you a highlight reel play that shows a skill he has. But it blinds you to the far more often occurrence of him not making a play he should. AA and Petr Mrazek were cut from the same cloth. When they were on? They were fabulous players and you could definitely see a future for them. When they were off, they were abysmal. Sadly, they tended to be off more than they were on.

Line Combinations - Frozen Tools
Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

This is his 18-19 and 19-20. Notice something with those lines? He very rarely played with Abdelkader and when he was on a line with Nielsen, he was generally on a line that included Robby Fabbri or Gustav Nyquist or Tyler Bertuzzi or Thomas Vanek. Or he was on the checking line with Glendening and Helm so he could get those lightning quick goals that you want to stump for and act like it's not fools gold.

And no, we don't need more selfish players who can get lucky and pot 30 in a season... because that type of player is the one who gets the albatross contract that everyone hates, because his success in terms of points is streaky as heck and you can't count on it.

E: He also played hardball with Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar, Henrik Zetterberg, etc etc etc on their RFA deals. Holland did/does not pay beyond what comparables are getting on RFA deals. He played hardball with AA because there was a template already written for AA's contract based on players with his same profile at somewhere between 1.8 and 1.9M AAV (Sam Bennett, Josh Anderson, and a couple others) and he said "f*** that noise, I want 2.5M per or more".

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

This is going backwards. Nothing says the money you use for Mantha will even get you a better player in UFA or that they'll sign here and the draft is a complete crap-shoot. Common.

Bird in hand is better than two in the bush sometimes, you're definitely looking for two in the bush willingly trading Mantha away just for an oppertunitty.

Circumstance might force it anyways but to just do it. Wow...

Really interested in who you think would sign here that's actually better than Mantha.

You are getting a prospect that could be better than Mantha and are avoiding a huge payday for an inconsistent and often injured player. He is far from " a bird in the hand"

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

His "health" is caused by three fights. Mantha got injured against Witter, against Nemeth, and by being bodyslammed by Muzzin.

His "only thing" is completely not a worry.

He has had injuries not related to fights too.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

If only there was a way to have a player not count against the salary cap if they had a long term injury.

What?

 

[Hen Kolland]

You are getting a prospect that could be better than Mantha and are avoiding a huge payday for an inconsistent and often injured player. He is far from " a bird in the hand"

Well...

The odds would tell you that the prospect will never be on the same level as Mantha.
The truth would suggest that the payday Mantha qualifies for is going to be suppressed to a level that he can live up to.
His stats would tell you that he was far from inconsistent last year; his longest scoring drought was 2 games. The narrative that he is overly streaky can be put to bed.
The reality of his injuries would tell you that his injuries should be controllable, and are near exclusively due to fighting fall outs. He doesn't have chronic knee/back injuries, he isn't a severe concussion risk. He isn't hurt in the fashion that appears to be a significant, lingering or recurring thing the way that Zetterberg or Franzen or Svechnikov would be examples of.

He has had injuries not related to fights too.

His injuries that were non-fighting based have been insignificant in the grand scheme of things. I believe in the past 4 seasons, he has missed extended chunks of the season 4 times. The end of 2016-17 with the Witkowski fight. The month of December of the 2018-19 season after fighting Nemeth. About 3 weeks in the middle of 2019-20 season with what I believe was a knee sprain(?) against the Devils. And then the Muzzin slew foot in December of 2019-20 resulting in over 7 weeks.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

He has had injuries not related to fights too.

He had a broken tibia from getting caught in a rut in the ice as a rookie. He has the normal strains and bangs that NHL players get.

Stop trying to sell the narrative of Mantha being injury prone. He's played 60, 80, 67, and 43. 60 and 67 were caused by fighting Witter and fighting Nemeth. 43 was caused by Muzzin puncturing his lung. Seriously, this is digging to find some reason to not want to extend him.

 

[Snuggs]

I mean the only peoples/ poster I see suggesting this or even pushing are guys upset over the AA move cause they thought AA was better than he actually is.

I can't convince them or anyone that AA wasn't really that good and is a 1 trick pony offensively. They had money to sign him long-term if they wanted for what he was asking... They(Red Wings) just didn't do it and AA proved why this season.

There isn't a parallel in skill level between Mantha/AA so the conversation really starts and stops when they compare the two as similar in anyway.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

He had a broken tibia from getting caught in a rut in the ice as a rookie. He has the normal strains and bangs that NHL players get.

Stop trying to sell the narrative of Mantha being injury prone. He's played 60, 80, 67, and 43. 60 and 67 were caused by fighting Witter and fighting Nemeth. 43 was caused by Muzzin puncturing his lung. Seriously, this is digging to find some reason to not want to extend him.

Injuries aren't the only issue. He is very streaky. Hot or cold. Never topping 50 points. And his carelessness (fighting) gets him hurt. Why is he fighting if he is "our best player" anyway? Exactly.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

Well...

The odds would tell you that the prospect will never be on the same level as Mantha.
The truth would suggest that the payday Mantha qualifies for is going to be suppressed to a level that he can live up to.
His stats would tell you that he was far from inconsistent last year; his longest scoring drought was 2 games. The narrative that he is overly streaky can be put to bed.
The reality of his injuries would tell you that his injuries should be controllable, and are near exclusively due to fighting fall outs. He doesn't have chronic knee/back injuries, he isn't a severe concussion risk. He isn't hurt in the fashion that appears to be a significant, lingering or recurring thing the way that Zetterberg or Franzen or Svechnikov would be examples of.



His injuries that were non-fighting based have been insignificant in the grand scheme of things. I believe in the past 4 seasons, he has missed extended chunks of the season 4 times. The end of 2016-17 with the Witkowski fight. The month of December of the 2018-19 season after fighting Nemeth. About 3 weeks in the middle of 2019-20 season with what I believe was a knee sprain(?) against the Devils. And then the Muzzin slew foot in December of 2019-20 resulting in over 7 weeks.

But he is streaky. Over his entire career not just this season hand picking sample sizes to fit your narrative.