Proposal: Viability in Trading Mantha to New Jersey or Buffalo for their 1st Rounder?

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Because everything about what Mantha has done shows a player getting better. He is getting more consistent as he develops. He got injured this year on a complete fluky cheapshot by a bender and it isn't a legitimate worry that he's got a weaker ribcage or something now. All of his injuries that he's built up are all acute injuries. They're not chronic. They're not weak knees or a bad back. Injury history is a worry with a guy like Gabe Vilardi now. It was a worry about Zetterberg and Datsyuk near the ends of their careers. Mantha literally just needs a coach in his ear saying "stand up for your teammates by scoring on the ensuing PP instead of throwing hands" and all of a sudden his injury worries are gone. Mantha who doesn't jump into fights he shouldn't be in doesn't miss 20 games and all of a sudden he's a 60 point winger. He has two consecutive years of 48 points in 67 and 48 in 80 and a third in which he had 38 points in 43 games. It doesn't take a brain surgeon to see that he's not capping out as a 50 point winger if you give him more opportunity.

No, he hasn't proven that he's a top 10 right wing. No, he hasn't proven he is a star. He's also not in line to get a 9M contract. He IS in line to get a long term contract that has a greater chance of being a Roman Josi-like bargain over what his talent level is than an albatross.

I insist on calling them hangups, because they're not legitimate criticisms or if they are, they're the good type where you get a good player cheaper than he should be and not the other way around. Mantha has scored at a 0.67 PPG pace for most of the last four years and was at 0.88 this year before Muzzin went Captain Insano on him. He's been improving his consistency and is a responsible two way forward. His game isn't predicated on him bullrushing everything or blitzing past everything.

A legitimate criticism of Mantha would involve say he gets a ton of points from the PP or he gets a lot of points because he's on a line with the only two other roster forwards on the Wings who are any good. Another would be if he had long parts of games that he took off (like a certain other former Wing would tend to do). When Jimmy D back in 2014 was saying how disappointed he was in Mantha, that was legitimate. He wasn't doing what he was capable of doing.

Anthony Mantha has warts on his game that are the type that don't matter. He's going to get a cheaper contract because he's been injured in fights and his counting stats are lower because the defenders that play with him are Cletus the slack jawed yokel. So no, he hasn't hit 50 points... but he's also not had a competent puck moving defenseman who wasn't also skating like he had a walker on the ice at any point in his career. Mantha is a player you bank on breaking out and try to pay him before he does. You even say it yourself "I think he'll be a 30g, 70p winger" at some point. So why wouldn't you try signing him as the "guy who can't hit 50 points" instead of complaining that he doesn't have the counting stats yet. That's why I think the "legit criticisms" are complete bullshit.

The more words it takes, the more likely someone is spinning a fable.
Mantha has proven very little.
And if you get "hung up" on last year and pay him like a point-per-game type winger, you run the risk that last year was an aberration precisely because he missed time and didn't have those 30-day checkouts he gives us every season.

I wouldn't pay Mantha more than the going rate for a 27-27-54 forward.
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

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The more words it takes, the more likely someone is spinning a fable.
Mantha has proven very little.
And if you get "hung up" on last year and pay him like a point-per-game type winger, you run the risk that last year was an aberration precisely because he missed time and didn't have those 30-day checkouts he gives us every season.

I wouldn't pay Mantha more than the going rate for a 27-27-54 forward.

Fine. Give Mantha 6.5x8. He stands a good chance of outproducing that contract because he has continuously improved.

It's not just last year though. He went 48 in 80, then 48 in 67, then 38 in 43. Points per game tracking upwards. If you want to sign him as a sure thing, you'll pay for that privilege. The whole idea of extending a guy early is that you want him to outproduce what you're paying him. Not pay him fairly for what he's producing. Get the discount on Mantha when he's still got RFA years left and you can.
 
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Lil Sebastian Cossa

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The more words it takes, the more likely someone is spinning a fable.
Mantha has proven very little.
And if you get "hung up" on last year and pay him like a point-per-game type winger, you run the risk that last year was an aberration precisely because he missed time and didn't have those 30-day checkouts he gives us every season.

I wouldn't pay Mantha more than the going rate for a 27-27-54 forward.

I love that you want to play hardball with a guy who's increasingly getting more consistent and better with age but were SO willing to stick it out with the enigma that wasn't making a positive move one way or another. In reality, the Wings are going to suck for quite a while. We will be damn lucky to attract a single player on Mantha's level to come here for any reasonable amount of money and similarly lucky if we pull that kind of player out of the draft. We should take the fact that Mantha likes it in Detroit and likes playing with his teammates and is a player who still has an upside to him and use it to build around.
 
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Hen Kolland

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Best thing we can do for Mantha is to build around him. If we can get him rolling, then his trade value goes sky-high.

Then,

A) we can keep him, if our rebuild matches with the timeline he is still in prime.
B) trade him on his prime, if our rebuild timeline does not match his prime.

Either way, he will be valuable to us, after locking him to a 6-year extension or something.

It’s important to remember that Mantha from a tools perspective was and is top 3 in his draft class. There were concerns that held him down the board, but he’s the classic “if he puts it together, he’s going to be one of the most unstoppable forces in the sport” type of prospect. He’s got an elite frame, skates very well, he flashes a top 5 shot in the league at times, and an under appreciated feel for the game.

I think we are at the point where he’s putting pieces together, to what extent we don’t know. He’s probably a middle of the pack first line winger waking up this morning, the rest of the picture we’ve yet to see is if he’s moving into rarified air as top 10 top 5 at his position.

Put it this way, and I know this will upset some, but the growth he’s made the past two years has put him in the same area for me that someone like Byfield is in as a prospect. I would rather be wrong betting on Mantha than I would being wrong betting against him. 1000 times out of 1000.
 

Steve Yzerlland

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Mantha has had some unfortunate luck health-wise but clearly has the ability to be a dominate player. We’ve all seen it. He is arguably our best player and certainly our best scorer.

When people say that X player Is a 50 point, 60 point, 80 point player, etc, etc they are generally referring to their caliber of play, abilities, and what kind of production they would expect over a full season.

I mean I guess, it’s technically correct to say Mantha hasn’t scored 50 points but he has literally averaged 27 goals and 55 points every 82 games so it seems a little disingenuous to argue he isn’t a 50 point player especially when you turn around and argue he is a “big money player”
Disingenuous? It's a fact. Not getting a calculator and piecing together seasons to add up more points. He is due for big money and has bigger questions marks around him. Not saying to trade him necessarily but he is not untouchable and if a good/great offer is made I would be happy letting him go. He is more Primeau than Shanahan...
 

Rzombo4 prez

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Disingenuous? It's a fact. Not getting a calculator and piecing together seasons to add up more points. He is due for big money and has bigger questions marks around him. Not saying to trade him necessarily but he is not untouchable and if a good/great offer is made I would be happy letting him go. He is more Primeau than Shanahan...

If Mantha isn't a 50 point scorer, why is he due for "big money"? I am totally confused.
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

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Disingenuous? It's a fact. Not getting a calculator and piecing together seasons to add up more points. He is due for big money and has bigger questions marks around him. Not saying to trade him necessarily but he is not untouchable and if a good/great offer is made I would be happy letting him go. He is more Primeau than Shanahan...

If he has all of the question marks... why is he due for big money?
If all he is is a 50 point winger, which as you've said isn't really that impressive offensively, why on Earth is he in line for a big deal?

And bigger question marks which are? He literally gets injured when he throws hands. How many games has he missed from injuries not caused by fights? Have Yzerman sit him down and talk and impart that Mantha "standing up for his teammates" by throwing fists will be something that the Wings coaching staff does not reward him for. Hell, sign a guy like Cal Clutterbuck or Leo Komarov or bring Witkowski back or insert pest/guy who keeps flies off people and say "Tony, you score, Witter here will throw hands".

Nobody in here is saying he's untouchable. I'm certainly not saying that. I'm saying that the level of return would have to be a better than fair deal for Detroit for them to remotely consider it for a second.
 

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If he has all of the question marks... why is he due for big money?
If all he is is a 50 point winger, which as you've said isn't really that impressive offensively, why on Earth is he in line for a big deal?

And bigger question marks which are? He literally gets injured when he throws hands. How many games has he missed from injuries not caused by fights? Have Yzerman sit him down and talk and impart that Mantha "standing up for his teammates" by throwing fists will be something that the Wings coaching staff does not reward him for. Hell, sign a guy like Cal Clutterbuck or Leo Komarov or bring Witkowski back or insert pest/guy who keeps flies off people and say "Tony, you score, Witter here will throw hands".

Nobody in here is saying he's untouchable. I'm certainly not saying that. I'm saying that the level of return would have to be a better than fair deal for Detroit for them to remotely consider it for a second.

So what would you pay him?
Let's see your contract range.


A) 7-year deal

B) 2-year deal.

What's your max cap hit?
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

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So what would you pay him?
Let's see your contract range.


A) 7-year deal

B) 2-year deal.

What's your max cap hit.

2 year would be a really really bad idea because it would take him right to UFA. That would probably be 2x4.5-5 and only be acceptable if he's made it clear he's testing FA because he's sick of being in Detroit. It's a nice enough raise from his current 3.3M that even a contentious negotiation would end up at the dollar amount .

7 year? I'm offering something like

7/48, 8/52 something like that. Want to push it to 7/50? Sure, I can do that. 8/60 would probably be higher than I'd really want to go (7.5 AAV). I'm basing this off of Mantha's repeated declarations of wanting to be in Detroit a long time, the fact that Larkin is signed for 5/30.5 and Detroit is pretty big on not having one important roster player's contract be a great deal higher.

To start negotiations, I probably say 7/42. Say, you're right with Larkin, it's basically a 2x raise from where you're currently at... and we're buying two RFA years with it.

Since you asked max...
If he's insistent on going to UFA in two years, max I go for a 2 year deal is 6M per.
He does a 7 year? I would not like paying him it, but I'd probably cap out at 7.25M AAV. Like I'd sign him for that but not be super thrilled.
He does an 8 year? Maybe I can be okay with 7.5M for another year.


Basically, I don't see any comparable with two years of RFA left that gets him 8M or above on a long term deal. If you piss around and wait for two more years so he can "prove that he's worth an extension" and have to sign a UFA Mantha who in your eyes has proven that he's worth an investment, you're looking at a 9-10M contract because for him to be worth it to you means he's putting up near Jeff Skinner numbers.
 
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Winger98

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I think 8/60 is closer to the neighborhood you'd have to be in to get Mantha to seriously consider a long term deal.
 

MBH

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2 year would be a really really bad idea because it would take him right to UFA. That would probably be 2x4.5-5 and only be acceptable if he's made it clear he's testing FA because he's sick of being in Detroit. It's a nice enough raise from his current 3.3M that even a contentious negotiation would end up at the dollar amount .

7 year? I'm offering something like

7/48, 8/52 something like that. Want to push it to 7/50? Sure, I can do that. 8/60 would probably be higher than I'd really want to go (7.5 AAV). I'm basing this off of Mantha's repeated declarations of wanting to be in Detroit a long time, the fact that Larkin is signed for 5/30.5 and Detroit is pretty big on not having one important roster player's contract be a great deal higher.

To start negotiations, I probably say 7/42. Say, you're right with Larkin, it's basically a 2x raise from where you're currently at... and we're buying two RFA years with it.

Since you asked max...
If he's insistent on going to UFA in two years, max I go for a 2 year deal is 6M per.
He does a 7 year? I would not like paying him it, but I'd probably cap out at 7.25M AAV. Like I'd sign him for that but not be super thrilled.
He does an 8 year? Maybe I can be okay with 7.5M for another year.


Basically, I don't see any comparable with two years of RFA left that gets him 8M or above on a long term deal. If you piss around and wait for two more years so he can "prove that he's worth an extension" and have to sign a UFA Mantha who in your eyes has proven that he's worth an investment, you're looking at a 9-10M contract because for him to be worth it to you means he's putting up near Jeff Skinner numbers.

That's a lot of money for someone with Mantha's track record.
The Skinner deal was stupid the moment it was signed. I don't think even the biggest Sabres homer tried to justify it. But it was coming off 40 goals. He'd also scored 37, 33 and 31.

I don't think those deals are awful for Mantha.
I'd rather someone else sign them.


Here are some of the contracts signed by higher profile players in Mantha's age group

Trouba. 7x8
Gibson. 8x6
Stone. 1x7.3
Seguin 8x9.9
Kucherov 8x9.5
Zucker 5x5.5
Kuznetsov 8x7.8

It's kind of rare to find players in that 25-26 range getting that big salary.

It's hard to justify paying Mantha a ton more than Zucker got.
Zucker was 25. Same age as Mantha.
He was coming off a 33-31-64 season

Zucker's 4 years before contract: 283 games 89-71-160
Zucker's 2 years before contract: 161 games. 55-56-111

Mantha's 4 years before contract: 250 games 82-88-170
Mantha's 2 years before contract: 110 games 41-45-86

In a comparable, if Zucker got 5x5.5, I'd give Mantha 5x5.75.
The cap rose by 2.5 percent and will stay there for the next 3 years, so now...
5x5.89M.

I'd say 5x6.25 - if you want to factor in being 6'5 (which already factors into the stats, no?)

That's what Mantha has probably proven. Unless you think Zucker, the only real comparable on the list, was vastly underpaid/

But when we talk Mantha, we're always talking about "what we hope" not "what he's done."

And it's very dangerous to do that when considering a massive 7-8 year deal.
 
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Lil Sebastian Cossa

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That's a lot of money for someone with Mantha's track record.
The Skinner deal was stupid the moment it was signed. I don't think even the biggest Sabres homer tried to justify it. But it was coming off 40 goals. He'd also scored 37, 33 and 31.

I don't think those deals are awful for Mantha.
I'd rather someone else sign them.


Here are some of the contracts signed by higher profile players in Mantha's age group

Trouba. 7x8
Gibson. 8x6
Stone. 1x7.3
Seguin 8x9.9
Kucherov 8x9.5
Zucker 5x5.5
Kuznetsov 8x7.8

It's kind of rare to find players in that 25-26 range getting that big salary.

Basically, 8x7.5M would be the contract if Mantha gave the team absolutely no break on value and they paid full value for 2 years of RFA control as well. I think he will, so I think something like 7/42, 8/50, etc. is a pretty reasonable calculation. Steve could even try to come in at the Zucker number like 6/32.5 or something because he's signing it with RFA years in tow.

I don't understand why you included Trouba, Gibson, or Seguin in this comparison though. Trouba is a D, irrelevant comp. Gibson is a goalie, irrelevant comp. Seguin is a C, irrelevant.

Kucherov is wildly more successful and even my pie in the sky number I'd pay for Mantha is 2M less per year compared to a contract that was Kucherov giving Tampa a huge break. Kucherov VERY easily could have gotten 11-12M if he dug his heels in. He didn't because Stamkos signed for 8.5M and Hedman is making 9M.

Kuznetsov is wildly more successful and he had Backstrom making 6.6M on one of the best deals in hockey and Alex Ovechkin making 9.5M. He's also a C, too but is also an example of a guy who could probably get more that is a bit constrained by the contract structure of his other high profile teammates.
 

MBH

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Basically, 8x7.5M would be the contract if Mantha gave the team absolutely no break on value and they paid full value for 2 years of RFA control as well. I think he will, so I think something like 7/42, 8/50, etc. is a pretty reasonable calculation. Steve could even try to come in at the Zucker number like 6/32.5 or something because he's signing it with RFA years in tow.

I don't understand why you included Trouba, Gibson, or Seguin in this comparison though. Trouba is a D, irrelevant comp. Gibson is a goalie, irrelevant comp. Seguin is a C, irrelevant.

Kucherov is wildly more successful and even my pie in the sky number I'd pay for Mantha is 2M less per year compared to a contract that was Kucherov giving Tampa a huge break. Kucherov VERY easily could have gotten 11-12M if he dug his heels in. He didn't because Stamkos signed for 8.5M and Hedman is making 9M.

Kuznetsov is wildly more successful and he had Backstrom making 6.6M on one of the best deals in hockey and Alex Ovechkin making 9.5M. He's also a C, too but is also an example of a guy who could probably get more that is a bit constrained by the contract structure of his other high profile teammates.

I only include those guys because there are no others at wing.

My breaking point on Mantha on anything 5 years or greater is somewhere around 6.75M.
If he wants more, trade him. Maybe signs & trade. Or maybe trade his RFA rights to a team that wants 2 years of shorter term goal-scoring punch and isn't yet ready for the bigger contract.
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

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I only include those guys because there are no others at wing.

My breaking point on Mantha on anything 5 years or greater is somewhere around 6.75M.
If he wants more, trade him. Maybe signs & trade. Or maybe trade his RFA rights to a team that wants 2 years of shorter term goal-scoring punch and isn't yet ready for the bigger contract.

So we're in the same boat money wise.

I'm saying 8x6.5 for Mantha is my expectation and I'd be willing to go to 7.5M in a no-discount scenario. You are willing to go to 6.75M. Basically, I don't view even 7.5M as being a "big contract" for a guy who has the profile that Mantha does. He's continuously improving and is arguably already at Jason Zucker (5x5.5) level of value if he doesn't improve one lick.

Sure, I'm taking a risk by giving it to him before he fully breaks out, but I think that Mantha at 8x7.5M is a good value asset for the majority of those 8 years even if his game by game performance doesn't improve (largely because if they're signing him to a long term deal, they're going to talk to him about fighting. There is no way they don't). My reasoning for wanting to go that high is that I think Mantha in about 3-4 years will be worth 9M+. I want the Roman Josi bargain deal where you're paying him 2-3M less per year than his play justifies because you pay him a little bit extra earlier than you normally would.

If we wait to UFA on him, there is no way we avoid an 8 or 9M contract if we want to keep him.

I guess you're really really stretching to want to give him 5+/6.75M AAV and for me, I'm 100% fully comfortable at that price. In fact, I think it's potential a bargain.
 
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MBH

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So we're in the same boat money wise.

I'm saying 8x6.5 for Mantha is my expectation and I'd be willing to go to 7.5M in a no-discount scenario. You are willing to go to 6.75M. Basically, I don't view even 7.5M as being a "big contract" for a guy who has the profile that Mantha does. He's continuously improving and is arguably already at Jason Zucker (5x5.5) level of value if he doesn't improve one lick.

Sure, I'm taking a risk by giving it to him before he fully breaks out, but I think that Mantha at 8x7.5M is a good value asset for the majority of those 8 years even if his game by game performance doesn't improve (largely because if they're signing him to a long term deal, they're going to talk to him about fighting. There is no way they don't). My reasoning for wanting to go that high is that I think Mantha in about 3-4 years will be worth 9M+. I want the Roman Josi bargain deal where you're paying him 2-3M less per year than his play justifies because you pay him a little bit extra earlier than you normally would.

If we wait to UFA on him, there is no way we avoid an 8 or 9M contract if we want to keep him.

I guess you're really really stretching to want to give him 5+/6.75M AAV and for me, I'm 100% fully comfortable at that price. In fact, I think it's potential a bargain.


My guess is that Mantha is going to demand quite a bit more. We'll see.
If he signs a 5-6 year deal under $7M - I think he's POTENTIALLY very tradeable IF he proves this year's production over 40 games wasn't a fluke.



Another aspect:
We also know the cap isn't growing for 3 years, which actually reduces the value of today's contracts vs contracts signed a year or two ago, when we anticipated 2-3 percent growth most years.
 
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Snuggs

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I'd do a 5 year 7 million per type deal.

I think that's a fair deal for both parties, might be a little generous even upfront. You'd be paying him as if he's a consistent 30 goal scoring threat which I think he is. He completes the 1st line with Larkin/Bertuzzi. It doesn't financially strap the Wings down really. He's even trade-able possibly at that number still if Wings decide in a few years the rebuild isn't where it needs to be.

I'll piggy back also that no one is saying he's untouchable, it's just gotta be a really good deal, more than just "fair".
 

Henkka

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Another aspect:
We also know the cap isn't growing for 3 years, which actually reduces the value of today's contracts vs contracts signed a year or two ago, when we anticipated 2-3 percent growth most years.

This is a big change how everything was projected before Corona.
 

Steve Yzerlland

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If he has all of the question marks... why is he due for big money?
If all he is is a 50 point winger, which as you've said isn't really that impressive offensively, why on Earth is he in line for a big deal?

And bigger question marks which are? He literally gets injured when he throws hands. How many games has he missed from injuries not caused by fights? Have Yzerman sit him down and talk and impart that Mantha "standing up for his teammates" by throwing fists will be something that the Wings coaching staff does not reward him for. Hell, sign a guy like Cal Clutterbuck or Leo Komarov or bring Witkowski back or insert pest/guy who keeps flies off people and say "Tony, you score, Witter here will throw hands".

Nobody in here is saying he's untouchable. I'm certainly not saying that. I'm saying that the level of return would have to be a better than fair deal for Detroit for them to remotely consider it for a second.
Why was Abdelkader? Don't know if you know this but in sports you are paid on past performance AND potential/expected returns and hopeful returns. Gator is a prime example of this.
 

Steve Yzerlland

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If Mantha isn't a 50 point scorer, why is he due for "big money"? I am totally confused.
I already answered this. The same reason LeBron James signed like 100M with nike before even one game in the NBA. He is being paid on projected performance.
 

Henkka

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Some part of the deal is paying for his potential. But definitely 100% of the contract value won't be paying for ONLY potential.

He hasn't been 100% player in the past, and that's why we will get him a bit cheaper, than guy who would have been logging multiple 82-game seasons in-a-row.
 

MBH

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I already answered this. The same reason LeBron James signed like 100M with nike before even one game in the NBA. He is being paid on projected performance.

Mantha is not projectable in the way LeBron is.
The best numbers Mantha has are last year's. But we've never seen him produce that over the course of a season.
 

Snuggs

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I also think some serious domino's can fall in the right spots and snowball this rebuild faster than the 5 year plan we all see at the moment.

Zadina/Fabbri improve to consistent 20 goal scorers, Red Wings sign a top 4 LHD and 2nd line C. Rasmussen/Veleno develop into NHL players. Mo Seider is a top pairing defender with Lindstrom a solid bottom guy.

Depending on how the draft goes... Maybe you've got a perennial veznia trophy contender at 4 or you get lucky and someone slips like Stutzle, Byfield, based on maybe someone liking Drysdale a lot.

A trade could also shift the balance of anything. Can't read the future but another Fabbri type deal on the defense or even for a goalie would be a solid plug/spark!
 

Hen Kolland

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That's a lot of money for someone with Mantha's track record.
The Skinner deal was stupid the moment it was signed. I don't think even the biggest Sabres homer tried to justify it. But it was coming off 40 goals. He'd also scored 37, 33 and 31.

I don't think those deals are awful for Mantha.
I'd rather someone else sign them.


Here are some of the contracts signed by higher profile players in Mantha's age group

Trouba. 7x8
Gibson. 8x6
Stone. 1x7.3
Seguin 8x9.9
Kucherov 8x9.5
Zucker 5x5.5
Kuznetsov 8x7.8

It's kind of rare to find players in that 25-26 range getting that big salary.

It's hard to justify paying Mantha a ton more than Zucker got.
Zucker was 25. Same age as Mantha.
He was coming off a 33-31-64 season

Zucker's 4 years before contract: 283 games 89-71-160
Zucker's 2 years before contract: 161 games. 55-56-111

Mantha's 4 years before contract: 250 games 82-88-170
Mantha's 2 years before contract: 110 games 41-45-86

In a comparable, if Zucker got 5x5.5, I'd give Mantha 5x5.75.
The cap rose by 2.5 percent and will stay there for the next 3 years, so now...
5x5.89M.

I'd say 5x6.25 - if you want to factor in being 6'5 (which already factors into the stats, no?)

That's what Mantha has probably proven. Unless you think Zucker, the only real comparable on the list, was vastly underpaid/

But when we talk Mantha, we're always talking about "what we hope" not "what he's done."

And it's very dangerous to do that when considering a massive 7-8 year deal.

Seguin 590gp
Kucherov 365gp
Zucker 330gp
Stone 307gp
Kuznetsov 261gp
Mantha 260gp

Mantha has the lowest experience level of the group of names, along with Kuznetsov who is right nearby in totals. And I think the best comparison might be a Kuznetsov type player.

Mantha: 260 games, 84 goals, 89 assists; 22.5% PPP. P/GP in past two seasons ahead of signing his next deal (110 games): 0.78
Kuznetsov: 261 games, 53 goals, 129 assists; 25.8% PPP. P/GP in last two completed seasons before signing his contract (164 games): 0.83

Based on what I am seeing, this deal bought 2 RFA years and 6 years of UFA status. Mantha's deal should also buy 2 years of RFA status if I am correct.

Now you can argue and pick apart things however you want.

Mantha has injury considerations; either he's injury prone (negative) or he's not been healthy enough to have his blow up (positive)
Mantha plays on an underwhelming team, and Kuznetsov plays on a stacked team; this may have suppressed Mantha's stats
Mantha is more of a goal scorer; you pay a premium for goal scoring
Kuznetsov is a center; you pay a premium for high caliber centers

You look at this deal, and the equivalent on a 81.5mm max cap, you are talking about a contract at $8.476mm per year over 8 years. I don't think Mantha or his team even approaches the table with something like that. But for a 7 or 8 term deal, $7.0mm for Mantha is not a major ask and would put him at like 8.6%.
 
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