Proposal: Viability in Trading Mantha to New Jersey or Buffalo for their 1st Rounder?

Hen Kolland

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But he is streaky. Over his entire career not just this season hand picking sample sizes to fit your narrative.

Being streaky is in the nature of a young player. The player Mantha was at 23/24 is not the same player he is today. That’s the entire concept of player progression.

His career performance is available to the public; I’m not hiding anything. He has statistically gotten more consistent and more productive with each passing year. Evidenced by his goals/game and points/game rates. The stats show that he’s growing out of the streaky nature that he struggled with earlier in his career.
 
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Lil Sebastian Cossa

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Injuries aren't the only issue. He is very streaky. Hot or cold. Never topping 50 points. And his carelessness (fighting) gets him hurt. Why is he fighting if he is "our best player" anyway? Exactly.

He’s fighting because he is a big guy and we have a bunch of players who have no physicality.

Larkin
Hirose
Filppula
Nielsen
Perlini
Fabbri
Zadina
Glendening
Gagner
Timashov

None of those guys are fighters at all

Helm
Abdelkader
Bertuzzi
Erne
Ehn

Bertuzzi is small, Helm is ACTUALLY injury prone, Abdelkader is a fake tough guy and Erne is garbage

Also, he’s not streaky. Perhaps he was as a rookie and a sophomore. Because he was a rookie and a sophomore. Just last year, never went more than three games without getting a point and was nearly PPG in his time.

Mantha will get the streaky moniker because he plays similar to how Franzen did. Mantha is literally the opposite type of player that you’re trying to paint him as.

I can’t wait until we play another full season and he scores over 50 points so stupid ass arguments like this lose any credibility. He’s a better player than a 50 point wing. He’s continually been improving in his time in the league. Why the hell do you want to undersell him so much and trade him away so some other team can benefit from him putting it all together as a player?
 
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odin1981

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I mean the only peoples/ poster I see suggesting this or even pushing are guys upset over the AA move cause they thought AA was better than he actually is.

I can't convince them or anyone that AA wasn't really that good and is a 1 trick pony offensively. They had money to sign him long-term if they wanted for what he was asking... They(Red Wings) just didn't do it and AA proved why this season.

There isn't a parallel in skill level between Mantha/AA so the conversation really starts and stops when they compare the two as similar in anyway.

I'm not upset AA got moved. I am for moving Mantha after he signs a bridge deal eating a few UFA years and when he has 3-4 year's left on the contract when he can retain full value.

He had a broken tibia from getting caught in a rut in the ice as a rookie. He has the normal strains and bangs that NHL players get.

Stop trying to sell the narrative of Mantha being injury prone. He's played 60, 80, 67, and 43. 60 and 67 were caused by fighting Witter and fighting Nemeth. 43 was caused by Muzzin puncturing his lung. Seriously, this is digging to find some reason to not want to extend him.

So he has missed 22, 2, 15, and 27-28 game's in the youth/prime of his career. Only once (2 missed game season) has he been relatively healthy. It would behove the wings to sign him to 32-33 years old and move him around age 28-29 to a team friendly deal due to not exceeding 60+ points once. It would be to our benefit to extend him now.

And screw the on pace BS. You don't hit it, you didn't get it. Way too many people fawn over him when he has hit nothing respectable of a "star" even once. Larkin has potted 30 goals, Larkin has posted 70+ points. But Mantha has not.
 
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Peter Sidorkiewicz

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Thing is - Mantha's career-high is 25-23-48.
He's kind of in a tough spot. Nobody's paying him what he's probably worth.
NJ fan here. I wouldn't be interested in trading NJ pick 7 or Arizona's pick (currently projected to be pick 9/10/11) for Mantha.

Vancouver's pick (Projected pick 17) would be on the table, but while getting a scoring winger for Hughes/Hischier is a team need, it is not our biggest need. NJ needs to rebuild the defense as a first priority. We will be hoping one of Drysdale or Sanderson is available at pick 7, but even if they are not, we would glad to pick up a forward that drops such as Holtz or Rossi.
 
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Lil Sebastian Cossa

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I'm not upset AA got moved. I am for moving Mantha after he signs a bridge deal eating a few UFA years and when he has 3-4 year's left on the contract when he can retain full value.



So he has missed 22, 2, 15, and 27-28 game's in the youth/prime of his career. Only once (2 missed game season) has he been relatively healthy. It would behove the wings to sign him to 32-33 years old and move him around age 28-29 to a team friendly deal due to not exceeding 60+ points once. It would be to our benefit to extend him now.

And screw the on pace BS. You don't hit it, you didn't get it. Way too many people fawn over him when he has hit nothing respectable of a "star" even once. Larkin has potted 30 goals, Larkin has posted 70+ points. But Mantha has not.

:banghead:

So two more points in either 17-18 or 18-19 and you'd all shut up then? You do realize that the Wings are a dumpster fire roster, yes? You do realize that Dylan Larkin averaged about 3 minutes more of ice time a night and is a center so therefore will have the puck on his stick a lot more than Mantha will when they are on the ice together, right?

This is what I'm saying, Anthony Mantha is a very good player. Scoring wingers are going to be among the most hurt by an incompetent back end that can't clear the puck or get them a tape to tape pass.

The chances of even the #7OA pick being Anthony Mantha at any point of life are far less than what our chances to win the lottery were. There is not a damn thing on Earth that signals trading Anthony Mantha is a good idea unless you're getting an unfair trade back. Like multiple firsts or Leon Draisaitl or something bonkers that would literally never happen. For anywhere close to a fair deal, the Wings are far far better off holding onto a player like Anthony Mantha.
 
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MBH

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I'm not upset AA got moved. I am for moving Mantha after he signs a bridge deal eating a few UFA years and when he has 3-4 year's left on the contract when he can retain full value.



So he has missed 22, 2, 15, and 27-28 game's in the youth/prime of his career. Only once (2 missed game season) has he been relatively healthy. It would behove the wings to sign him to 32-33 years old and move him around age 28-29 to a team friendly deal due to not exceeding 60+ points once. It would be to our benefit to extend him now.

And screw the on pace BS. You don't hit it, you didn't get it. Way too many people fawn over him when he has hit nothing respectable of a "star" even once. Larkin has potted 30 goals, Larkin has posted 70+ points. But Mantha has not.

Got it right.
Mantha can be a really good player. And last year he was good more than any other year of his career.

But he'll be 26 to start the season and he's never scored 25 goals or 50 points in a season.

I really do expect him to break out with a full season
30-40-70 points or whatever. But I'm not sure how long it will last.
 
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Lil Sebastian Cossa

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Got it right.
Mantha can be a really good player. And last year he was good more than any other year of his career.

But he'll be 26 to start the season and he's never scored 25 goals or 50 points in a season.

I really do expect him to break out with a full season
30-40-70 points or whatever. But I'm not sure how long it will last.

Why are you all hung up on stupid milestones? He had 24 goals twice. Would he really be a better player and everyone would back off if he had literally one more goal in either of those years? Or if he scored two points in either year? This just seems like everyone who wants to trade him is coming up with "reasons" why it is a good idea that aren't founded in a whole lot. No, you don't hold onto him at all costs or sign him for 8-9M for 8 years. But there is far more to gain from Detroit holding onto Anthony Mantha than there is to trading him. Sure, offer him around. But if the trade doesn't make you remarkably better, I don't see the benefit. If I get Alexander Holtz for him (#7OA), I don't understand what I'm doing. Chances are Holtz might cap out as Anthony Mantha. But guess what, Anthony Mantha has a 100% chance of being Anthony Mantha. So why on Earth would I trade a sure thing to get to a certain level for a guy who's top end is in the neighborhood of the guy I already have?

Everything about Mantha's game presages it aging pretty well (if he can stop throwing hands). He's a smooth skater, but his game isn't predicated on being a burner. He's a big body, but his game isn't predicated on being a bruiser. His best skills are the type of skills that age like wine (hands, sniping wrist shot).
 

Steve Yzerlland

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I can’t wait until we play another full season and he scores over 50 points so stupid ass arguments like this lose any credibility. He’s a better player than a 50 point wing. He’s continually been improving in his time in the league. Why the hell do you want to undersell him so much and trade him away so some other team can benefit from him putting it all together as a player?
Well until then "stupid ass arguments " about him being this great scorer should stop too then. Because... you know... they aren't true...
 

Rzombo4 prez

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Why are you all hung up on stupid milestones? He had 24 goals twice. Would he really be a better player and everyone would back off if he had literally one more goal in either of those years? Or if he scored two points in either year? This just seems like everyone who wants to trade him is coming up with "reasons" why it is a good idea that aren't founded in a whole lot. No, you don't hold onto him at all costs or sign him for 8-9M for 8 years. But there is far more to gain from Detroit holding onto Anthony Mantha than there is to trading him. Sure, offer him around. But if the trade doesn't make you remarkably better, I don't see the benefit. If I get Alexander Holtz for him (#7OA), I don't understand what I'm doing. Chances are Holtz might cap out as Anthony Mantha. But guess what, Anthony Mantha has a 100% chance of being Anthony Mantha. So why on Earth would I trade a sure thing to get to a certain level for a guy who's top end is in the neighborhood of the guy I already have?

Everything about Mantha's game presages it aging pretty well (if he can stop throwing hands). He's a smooth skater, but his game isn't predicated on being a burner. He's a big body, but his game isn't predicated on being a bruiser. His best skills are the type of skills that age like wine (hands, sniping wrist shot).

I don't think anyone is suggesting that they trade him at all costs just as you are not suggesting that they hold onto him at all costs. I think he will be moved eventually (simply because we are looking at a much longer rebuild than many want to admit) but the timing and return needs to be right in the end.
 

Steve Yzerlland

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Being streaky is in the nature of a young player. The player Mantha was at 23/24 is not the same player he is today. That’s the entire concept of player progression.

His career performance is available to the public; I’m not hiding anything. He has statistically gotten more consistent and more productive with each passing year. Evidenced by his goals/game and points/game rates. The stats show that he’s growing out of the streaky nature that he struggled with earlier in his career.
Yes and all that being said still never got even 50 points which btw isn't even close to being a great offensive player you build around. Mantha is a good player not untouchable like most of you are trying to convey. He is about to get BIG MONEY and we should explore every option is my whole point and the point of this thread. ( not started by me btw....)
 

Steve Yzerlland

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Why are you all hung up on stupid milestones? He had 24 goals twice. Would he really be a better player and everyone would back off if he had literally one more goal in either of those years? Or if he scored two points in either year? This just seems like everyone who wants to trade him is coming up with "reasons" why it is a good idea that aren't founded in a whole lot. No, you don't hold onto him at all costs or sign him for 8-9M for 8 years. But there is far more to gain from Detroit holding onto Anthony Mantha than there is to trading him. Sure, offer him around. But if the trade doesn't make you remarkably better, I don't see the benefit. If I get Alexander Holtz for him (#7OA), I don't understand what I'm doing. Chances are Holtz might cap out as Anthony Mantha. But guess what, Anthony Mantha has a 100% chance of being Anthony Mantha. So why on Earth would I trade a sure thing to get to a certain level for a guy who's top end is in the neighborhood of the guy I already have?

Everything about Mantha's game presages it aging pretty well (if he can stop throwing hands). He's a smooth skater, but his game isn't predicated on being a burner. He's a big body, but his game isn't predicated on being a bruiser. His best skills are the type of skills that age like wine (hands, sniping wrist shot).
Would they be "stupid milestones " if he reached them? One reason someone could say Holtz> Mantha is because he is a full 8 years younger for one.(That's almost a decade!) We are clearly the worst team in the league and by the time Holtz "becomes" Mantha we would be better...
 
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Debrincat93

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id rather give him 1 more year. if he cant stay healthy next year, even though its a short year, then move him. i like AM but kid cant stay healthy.

that being said, personally, the only way id move mantha for either pick would be if Perfetti / Drysdale / Raymond are still around.
 

MBH

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Why are you all hung up on stupid milestones? He had 24 goals twice. Would he really be a better player and everyone would back off if he had literally one more goal in either of those years? Or if he scored two points in either year? This just seems like everyone who wants to trade him is coming up with "reasons" why it is a good idea that aren't founded in a whole lot. No, you don't hold onto him at all costs or sign him for 8-9M for 8 years. But there is far more to gain from Detroit holding onto Anthony Mantha than there is to trading him. Sure, offer him around. But if the trade doesn't make you remarkably better, I don't see the benefit. If I get Alexander Holtz for him (#7OA), I don't understand what I'm doing. Chances are Holtz might cap out as Anthony Mantha. But guess what, Anthony Mantha has a 100% chance of being Anthony Mantha. So why on Earth would I trade a sure thing to get to a certain level for a guy who's top end is in the neighborhood of the guy I already have?

Everything about Mantha's game presages it aging pretty well (if he can stop throwing hands). He's a smooth skater, but his game isn't predicated on being a burner. He's a big body, but his game isn't predicated on being a bruiser. His best skills are the type of skills that age like wine (hands, sniping wrist shot).

Why you insist on labeling legit criticisms as hangups?

Mantha still hasn't proven many of the things that people seem to think he's proved.

You want to pay him for what he hasn't done? If so - that seems like a "hangup" to me.
 

ArmChairGM89

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Why you insist on labeling legit criticisms as hangups?

Mantha still hasn't proven many of the things that people seem to think he's proved.

You want to pay him for what he hasn't done? If so - that seems like a "hangup" to me.
Most first UFA included contracts players are paid for things they haven’t done.
 
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SirloinUB

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Mantha has had some unfortunate luck health-wise but clearly has the ability to be a dominate player. We’ve all seen it. He is arguably our best player and certainly our best scorer.

When people say that X player Is a 50 point, 60 point, 80 point player, etc, etc they are generally referring to their caliber of play, abilities, and what kind of production they would expect over a full season.

I mean I guess, it’s technically correct to say Mantha hasn’t scored 50 points but he has literally averaged 27 goals and 55 points every 82 games so it seems a little disingenuous to argue he isn’t a 50 point player especially when you turn around and argue he is a “big money player”
 
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Hen Kolland

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Yes and all that being said still never got even 50 points which btw isn't even close to being a great offensive player you build around. Mantha is a good player not untouchable like most of you are trying to convey. He is about to get BIG MONEY and we should explore every option is my whole point and the point of this thread. ( not started by me btw....)

Nobody is saying he is untouchable. You have created a straw man argument here. Everyone seems to be open to moving him, but not at what is perceived as a discounted price for what he can add.

It's an incredible two faced argument to say that he hasn't accomplished anything substantial and "isn't a great offensive player to build around", and then in the same breath you say that he's about to get "BIG MONEY". If he hasn't accomplished anything, and isn't that great, then he isn't getting the big dollar contract. It's that simple.

So either he isn't good enough for a contract and teams aren't giving you the assets you think he might return, or he is worth the contract and should be held with a high price tag.

Pick a side and stick to it.
 
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Lil Sebastian Cossa

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Why you insist on labeling legit criticisms as hangups?

Mantha still hasn't proven many of the things that people seem to think he's proved.

You want to pay him for what he hasn't done? If so - that seems like a "hangup" to me.

Because everything about what Mantha has done shows a player getting better. He is getting more consistent as he develops. He got injured this year on a complete fluky cheapshot by a bender and it isn't a legitimate worry that he's got a weaker ribcage or something now. All of his injuries that he's built up are all acute injuries. They're not chronic. They're not weak knees or a bad back. Injury history is a worry with a guy like Gabe Vilardi now. It was a worry about Zetterberg and Datsyuk near the ends of their careers. Mantha literally just needs a coach in his ear saying "stand up for your teammates by scoring on the ensuing PP instead of throwing hands" and all of a sudden his injury worries are gone. Mantha who doesn't jump into fights he shouldn't be in doesn't miss 20 games and all of a sudden he's a 60 point winger. He has two consecutive years of 48 points in 67 and 48 in 80 and a third in which he had 38 points in 43 games. It doesn't take a brain surgeon to see that he's not capping out as a 50 point winger if you give him more opportunity.

No, he hasn't proven that he's a top 10 right wing. No, he hasn't proven he is a star. He's also not in line to get a 9M contract. He IS in line to get a long term contract that has a greater chance of being a Roman Josi-like bargain over what his talent level is than an albatross.

I insist on calling them hangups, because they're not legitimate criticisms or if they are, they're the good type where you get a good player cheaper than he should be and not the other way around. Mantha has scored at a 0.67 PPG pace for most of the last four years and was at 0.88 this year before Muzzin went Captain Insano on him. He's been improving his consistency and is a responsible two way forward. His game isn't predicated on him bullrushing everything or blitzing past everything.

A legitimate criticism of Mantha would involve say he gets a ton of points from the PP or he gets a lot of points because he's on a line with the only two other roster forwards on the Wings who are any good. Another would be if he had long parts of games that he took off (like a certain other former Wing would tend to do). When Jimmy D back in 2014 was saying how disappointed he was in Mantha, that was legitimate. He wasn't doing what he was capable of doing.

Anthony Mantha has warts on his game that are the type that don't matter. He's going to get a cheaper contract because he's been injured in fights and his counting stats are lower because the defenders that play with him are Cletus the slack jawed yokel. So no, he hasn't hit 50 points... but he's also not had a competent puck moving defenseman who wasn't also skating like he had a walker on the ice at any point in his career. Mantha is a player you bank on breaking out and try to pay him before he does. You even say it yourself "I think he'll be a 30g, 70p winger" at some point. So why wouldn't you try signing him as the "guy who can't hit 50 points" instead of complaining that he doesn't have the counting stats yet. That's why I think the "legit criticisms" are complete bullshit.
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

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Would they be "stupid milestones " if he reached them? One reason someone could say Holtz> Mantha is because he is a full 8 years younger for one.(That's almost a decade!) We are clearly the worst team in the league and by the time Holtz "becomes" Mantha we would be better...

Yes, they would. They would absolutely be arbitrary milestones that I wouldn't say "now, he's a 25 goal scorer so I'm okay paying him more." I'm not using a milestone to say they should keep him. I'm saying that he's continuing to get better and him not hitting 50 points isn't because he's a bad player nor is it something to worry about.

And also... sure, there are several timelines in which Holtz or Lundell or whoever becomes a better player than Mantha. But for fun, toss a percentage chance on that. How likely are they to reach their potential? 50%? I think that's awfully damn high. Basically, I don't want to kick Anthony Mantha into the ether in the hopes that I get at 10% a better Mantha, at 50% I get Mantha, and 40% I'm worse off for having done it. Like we're not better if we kick Mantha down the pipe and get Holtz back in the majority of situations. Also, I kind of want the 2020-2021 or 2021-2022 Wings to be remotely watchable. I don't want to be rebuilding forever like the Sabres or the Senators.
 
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Henkka

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The thing is, do we want to Holtz/Lundell's prime being 7 years later than Mantha's prime will be?

Mantha is now in prime. And probably will be for next 8 seasons.

But if we have Holtz, he could have as effective prime, but 7 years later, because he is 7 years younger.

Does that fit on our plans better or worse?

That's the question.
 

Marky9er

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I don't know what people are watching but Mantha from the 2nd half of 18-19 and the games he played in 19-20 is much better than some "guy who can't break 50 points". The people beating that drum are Habs fans who want him for nothing, and Wings fans who don't like him because of X reason predating said timeline. IMO. If we traded Mantha to Colorado I'm telling you he'd break 50 points in 45 games.
 

Henkka

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Best thing we can do for Mantha is to build around him. If we can get him rolling, then his trade value goes sky-high.

Then,

A) we can keep him, if our rebuild matches with the timeline he is still in prime.
B) trade him on his prime, if our rebuild timeline does not match his prime.

Either way, he will be valuable to us, after locking him to a 6-year extension or something.
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

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I don't know what people are watching but Mantha from the 2nd half of 18-19 and the games he played in 19-20 is much better than some "guy who can't break 50 points". The people beating that drum are Habs fans who want him for nothing, and Wings fans who don't like him because of X reason predating said timeline. IMO. If we traded Mantha to Colorado I'm telling you he'd break 50 points in 45 games.

Yes. That is what I am saying. Mantha bears the landmarks of a player about to bust out to be worth a lot more than what he's shown. I either want a huge haul from someone for him or I want to build around him (while retaining the option to get a large haul for him at any point in the term of the contract we sign him to).

No player is without risk, but the "risks" associated with Mantha are just so far below the possible benefits of getting him on a long term deal at what will be a bargain price. There is a much higher risk if you dealt him for a first rounder or a Haydn Fleury type that some other team would get a monster in Mantha and you'd be hoping to get the same.
 

Lil Sebastian Cossa

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The thing is, do we want to Holtz/Lundell's prime being 7 years later than Mantha's prime will be?

Mantha is now in prime. And probably will be for next 8 seasons.

But if we have Holtz, he could have as effective prime, but 7 years later, because he is 7 years younger.

Does that fit on our plans better or worse?

That's the question.

For that to be a concern for me, I have to think that they'll be better than Mantha. And judging by the history of guys who aren't top 3 picks... I'm not putting all my eggs in that basket when we've already got Mantha at a certain level of play. I'm kinda hoping that we're not remotely concerned about what Holtz and Lundell's primes would be because we're drafting/signing guys that make that part completely irrelevant 7 years from now.
 

Henkka

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For that to be a concern for me, I have to think that they'll be better than Mantha. And judging by the history of guys who aren't top 3 picks... I'm not putting all my eggs in that basket when we've already got Mantha at a certain level of play. I'm kinda hoping that we're not remotely concerned about what Holtz and Lundell's primes would be because we're drafting/signing guys that make that part completely irrelevant 7 years from now.

Yeah, somthing we have in real has some better value.

Prospect could look good, or even better than Mantha, but still fail.

But also , we haven't seen 100% Mantha yet because of those injuries. The jury could still be out there also regarding in him. Maybe he can never be 82-game player regurlary. Then you could invest his value in a trade for something else.

It's still anyways great value he has, and which could be transferred to other asset.

My personal will is to keep him, but I would also understand the trade, at some point. Not now. We should sell him high, and that's not now.
 

Bench

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The mental exercise about trading Mantha is sound. Maximize return on a peak asset. Maybe he's declining when the rebuild is ending. Sure, sure. I get that. I think his injury this year limits his return to a point that there's no way I consider moving him, because the dude is awesome, but I still get it.

The reality of moving him though means our team is so devoid of talent for the next few years it would have Larkin getting shelled so bad there's no way he survives. Like you gotta give your boys some support out there.

Unless you land a couple really good FAs to fill in, moving any of our key players right now is basically impossible if you want to keep our roster off antidepressants.
 
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