Proposal: Viability in Trading Mantha to New Jersey or Buffalo for their 1st Rounder?

[Syckle78]

Except his career production rates are 26.5 goals and 28 assists for 55ish points, which places him closer to an average first winger.

And over the past two seasons 30.6 goals and 33.5 assists for 64 points per 82 game season, which would suggest he’s between a good and average first liner.

Or you can continue to ignore reality.

Edit: of course that last comment is me being facetious. I know you will choose to ignore the stats as they are laid out.

You list pace then talk about ignoring reality...mmmk.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

There is way too much variability over just 40'sh game's to project a 80 game season. And he has no past experience of doing so. He hits a 10-15 game skid which he has done in the past and his PPG drops to a reasonable .65-.70 range. In addition to never hitting that level before let alone .88 PPG.

But even so... make a graph of those numbers. It's going up. Your assertions about it being a fluke lose traction when you see he's continuing to get better year after year. Maybe it's not 0.88, but when a guy has four years of continuing to improve his PPG stat, I'm not about to just toss it out and say, well maybe next year he runs into some trouble. Mantha isn't sawtoothing. He didn't have a big year then drop then have a big year again. He has past experience of 0.60-0.72. That kind of player is worth 6.5M AAV in the current market. Did you look past my post? He literally posted 0.72 PPG in 67 games in 18-19.

 

[odin1981]

But even so... make a graph of those numbers. It's going up. Your assertions about it being a fluke lose traction when you see he's continuing to get better year after year. Maybe it's not 0.88, but when a guy has four years of continuing to improve his PPG stat, I'm not about to just toss it out and say, well maybe next year he runs into some trouble. Mantha isn't sawtoothing. He didn't have a big year then drop then have a big year again. He has past experience of 0.60-0.72. That kind of player is worth 6.5M AAV in the current market. Did you look past my post? He literally posted 0.72 PPG in 67 games in 18-19.

The problem is paying based on projection. Injuries are a real tangible concern with him, from being a dumbass thinking he is a ufc fighter. His #'s simply put are obfuscated by it.

I am for a extension and to look around moving him at 28-29. But I refuse to believe the hogwash that he is a top 50 player as other's have said. He has to prove it over say 2 seasons of 75+ games. That will garner very good/great value. I am in no way, shape, or form to move on from him now. But he could entice a team with a pick as well to give us a #2-3d around the time we will begin to start to climb out of the cellar.

 

[BinCookin]

There is a factor here, that I think is overlooked sometimes. When Bertuzzi - Larkin - Mantha are the top line. They get a lot more playing time. Their stats become inflated. If Jack Eichel was on our team.. Larkin would be the 2nd line Centre.
If Taylor Hall and Kyle Palmieri was on this team, Bertuzzi and Mantha are the 2nd line wingers.

With less PP time. Less Ice time in general.

I am very uneasy with signing either Bertuzzi or Mantha to anything over 4 years myself.
I do not think these guys are "Good" first line players.
I think they are at best "Weak" first line players, and should be second line players.

And IF we ever actually draft star players (win us the damn lottery?)... then we will really regret how much we payed our 2nd line talent.
OR if we continue drafting 4th-10th each year, than we are going to need to have a more equally weighted system. Like 2-3 C's and 4-5 Wingers who all make around 5-6 Mil max.
Then we can have a team of well rounded 2nd liners.... Trouble is, while we only have 3 2nd liners, they are playing top line minutes and inflating their own salaries.

 

[lidstromiscool]

There is a factor here, that I think is overlooked sometimes. When Bertuzzi - Larkin - Mantha are the top line. They get a lot more playing time. Their stats become inflated. If Jack Eichel was on our team.. Larkin would be the 2nd line Centre.
If Taylor Hall and Kyle Palmieri was on this team, Bertuzzi and Mantha are the 2nd line wingers.

With less PP time. Less Ice time in general.

I am very uneasy with signing either Bertuzzi or Mantha to anything over 4 years myself.
I do not think these guys are "Good" first line players.
I think they are at best "Weak" first line players, and should be second line players.

And IF we ever actually draft star players (win us the damn lottery?)... then we will really regret how much we payed our 2nd line talent.
OR if we continue drafting 4th-10th each year, than we are going to need to have a more equally weighted system. Like 2-3 C's and 4-5 Wingers who all make around 5-6 Mil max.
Then we can have a team of well rounded 2nd liners.... Trouble is, while we only have 3 2nd liners, they are playing top line minutes and inflating their own salaries.

Mantha is anything but a "weak first liner". Bertuzzi I agree with but he plays a different role and I doubt his contract would be as much as Mantha. Hall and Palmieri would not affect Mantha's ice time significantly at all. People are not realizing that when healthy, Mantha is a legit first line winger who happens to be 6'5, has a mean streak, and drives play. He has a 54% chance for and 70 points in his last 82 games on the worst team in the NHL. If you give him players to play with like Hall, it will help him, not hinder him.

 

[Hen Kolland]

You list pace then talk about ignoring reality...mmmk.

When he’s on the ice, he’s a first line player in whatever way you want to slice it. That is reality. I don’t care if you look at pace, or rates, or totals; they all say the exact same thing, because they are all sourced from the exact same data.

Don’t bite off more than you can chew. There’s nothing that supports the other side of this argument.

 

[Hen Kolland]

The problem is paying based on projection.

No. The problem is paying people based on what they did in the past and ignoring projections. See: Abdelkader, Lucic, etc.

There is a factor here, that I think is overlooked sometimes. When Bertuzzi - Larkin - Mantha are the top line. They get a lot more playing time. Their stats become inflated. If Jack Eichel was on our team.. Larkin would be the 2nd line Centre.
If Taylor Hall and Kyle Palmieri was on this team, Bertuzzi and Mantha are the 2nd line wingers.

With less PP time. Less Ice time in general.

I am very uneasy with signing either Bertuzzi or Mantha to anything over 4 years myself.
I do not think these guys are "Good" first line players.
I think they are at best "Weak" first line players, and should be second line players.

And IF we ever actually draft star players (win us the damn lottery?)... then we will really regret how much we payed our 2nd line talent.
OR if we continue drafting 4th-10th each year, than we are going to need to have a more equally weighted system. Like 2-3 C's and 4-5 Wingers who all make around 5-6 Mil max.
Then we can have a team of well rounded 2nd liners.... Trouble is, while we only have 3 2nd liners, they are playing top line minutes and inflating their own salaries.

Mantha has been better than Palmieri for probably the past two years. There’s no way that Mantha gets knocked off the first line for him. If you got get two players like Hall...well yeah, but you’re not talking about just a good winger anymore, you’re talking about a Hart winner.

Bertuzzi I agree with, he’s not a true first liner, but his talent is such that it fits as the third wheel on a skilled line more than it does as a the best player on a lesser line. I don’t have the time to look at the underlying numbers, but I know from past research that the Wings really have two play driving players whose impact is generally positive regardless of their linemates. It’s Mantha and Larkin. Bertuzzi without one of those play drivers sees a dip.

People hate Blashill, and they really hate him breaking up Mantha, Larkin and Bertuzzi, but when he did, the majority of the time it was dropping Mantha to the 2nd line because he knows that there’s a better chance of Mantha driving a second line than there is Bertuzzi.

 

[odin1981]

No. The problem is paying people based on what they did in the past and ignoring projections. See: Abdelkader, Lucic.

Lucic was dumb but he had multiple years of production history. His problem was he was not a star player and signed for far too long.

I'm tempted to not even reply on the other anchor. Because every poster on this forum groaned when the information of his signing came out. It was plain and simple mismanagement by a loyalty driven GM. Absolutely no one thought he could replicate his #'s without being stapled to a healthy Dats or Z all year.

 

[turkleton85]

Mantha is anything but a "weak first liner". Bertuzzi I agree with but he plays a different role and I doubt his contract would be as much as Mantha. Hall and Palmieri would not affect Mantha's ice time significantly at all. People are not realizing that when healthy, Mantha is a legit first line winger who happens to be 6'5, has a mean streak, and drives play. He has a 54% chance for and 70 points in his last 82 games on the worst team in the NHL. If you give him players to play with like Hall, it will help him, not hinder him.

thinking the same, mantha is the one guy on our team who is a legit first liner. larkin can be dominant at times, but as everyone is saying ideally is a 2c

 

[Henkka]

But even so... make a graph of those numbers. It's going up. Your assertions about it being a fluke lose traction when you see he's continuing to get better year after year. Maybe it's not 0.88, but when a guy has four years of continuing to improve his PPG stat, I'm not about to just toss it out and say, well maybe next year he runs into some trouble. Mantha isn't sawtoothing. He didn't have a big year then drop then have a big year again. He has past experience of 0.60-0.72. That kind of player is worth 6.5M AAV in the current market. Did you look past my post? He literally posted 0.72 PPG in 67 games in 18-19.

Would be very interesting to see every player TOP15 production games cutted off from their total production and then put them in order...

And you'll find out that there's no difference in the order, when looking just for total points.

 

[Ezekial]

You list pace then talk about ignoring reality...mmmk.

Go look at his actual production over his past 82 games and tell me he doesn't "actually" produce at a first line level.