The problem is paying based on projection.
No. The problem is paying people based on what they did in the past and ignoring projections. See: Abdelkader, Lucic, etc.
There is a factor here, that I think is overlooked sometimes. When Bertuzzi - Larkin - Mantha are the top line. They get a lot more playing time. Their stats become inflated. If Jack Eichel was on our team.. Larkin would be the 2nd line Centre.
If Taylor Hall and Kyle Palmieri was on this team, Bertuzzi and Mantha are the 2nd line wingers.
With less PP time. Less Ice time in general.
I am very uneasy with signing either Bertuzzi or Mantha to anything over 4 years myself.
I do not think these guys are "Good" first line players.
I think they are at best "Weak" first line players, and should be second line players.
And IF we ever actually draft star players (win us the damn lottery?)... then we will really regret how much we payed our 2nd line talent.
OR if we continue drafting 4th-10th each year, than we are going to need to have a more equally weighted system. Like 2-3 C's and 4-5 Wingers who all make around 5-6 Mil max.
Then we can have a team of well rounded 2nd liners.... Trouble is, while we only have 3 2nd liners, they are playing top line minutes and inflating their own salaries.
Mantha has been better than Palmieri for probably the past two years. There’s no way that Mantha gets knocked off the first line for him. If you got get two players like Hall...well yeah, but you’re not talking about just a good winger anymore, you’re talking about a Hart winner.
Bertuzzi I agree with, he’s not a true first liner, but his talent is such that it fits as the third wheel on a skilled line more than it does as a the best player on a lesser line. I don’t have the time to look at the underlying numbers, but I know from past research that the Wings really have two play driving players whose impact is generally positive regardless of their linemates. It’s Mantha and Larkin. Bertuzzi without one of those play drivers sees a dip.
People hate Blashill, and they really hate him breaking up Mantha, Larkin and Bertuzzi, but when he did, the majority of the time it was dropping Mantha to the 2nd line because he knows that there’s a better chance of Mantha driving a second line than there is Bertuzzi.