[VAN/TBL] Cond. 1st ('20 / '21) Plus for J.T. Miller || Part 2

[Bleach Clean]

The reality is Benning does not care that the Canucks may lose a lottery draft pick because he will no longer be GM if he does not make the playoffs in the next 2 years. It's similar to the CEOs of the American banks taking massive risks to collect performance bonuses because if they end up bankrupting the bank, someone else is picking up the tab anyways. It won't be a Jim Benning problem, it will be a Canucks problem.

Which makes sense for a lame duck GM to do, but how does this daft owner approve of this? Are there no alarm bells going off?

Where is the dissenting voice in the room for this?

I hear people saying that if the Canucks make the playoffs next year that this is an OK trade. No, it's still a stupid and needless trade because we lack the perfect knowledge of that eventuality. That's why we have to bank on probability. And in that sense, this trade does not justify the probability of risk taken.

I do appreciate the percentage work done on the last few pages though. HF on display there.

 

[Field of Dreams]

Which makes sense for a lame duck GM to do, but how does this daft owner approve of this? Are there no alarm bells going off?

Where is the dissenting voice in the room for this?

I hear people saying that if the Canucks make the playoffs next year that this is an OK trade. No, it's still a stupid and needless trade because we lack the perfect knowledge of that eventuality. That's why we have to bank on probability. And in that sense, this trade does not justify the probability of risk taken.

I do appreciate the percentage work done on the last few pages though. HF on display there.

The dissenting voice in the room was shown the door already. I gather the Canucks front office is an echo chamber of stupidity in the fashion of that infamous Seguin trade video.

This move stinks of desperation. This is why you don't tell general managers that if they do not make the playoffs by a certain year they are fired. It creates a conflict of interest if the rebuild hasn't been as fast as intended. Also the goal should never be to make the playoffs, it should be to build a championship team.

 

[Hodgy]

Which makes sense for a lame duck GM to do, but how does this daft owner approve of this? Are there no alarm bells going off?

Where is the dissenting voice in the room for this?

I hear people saying that if the Canucks make the playoffs next year that this is an OK trade. No, it's still a stupid and needless trade because we lack the perfect knowledge of that eventuality. That's why we have to bank on probability. And in that sense, this trade does not justify the probability of risk taken.

I do appreciate the percentage work done on the last few pages though. HF on display there.

Not only that, but an overpayment is an overpayment notwithstanding later results. If Benning could have got Miller for substantially less, then this is a bad trade even if the Canucks make the playoffs in each of the next two seasons.

It’s like buying a used car for over the sticker price and finding out afterwards that there is a bag of money in the trunk.

 

[4Twenty]

Risky trade but I love this player !!

Excels in puck possession and zone entries.

Tbay fans also saying he draws a ton of attention by the way he plays and opens up tons of space for his linemates.

Ep40 and Boeser must be salavating.


Worth mentioning too that Craig Button said that the 2021 draft is looking verry weak compared to recent drafts and especially compared to 2020 draft which looks very exceptional !

Craig Button gets very few viewings on draft classes prior to international events like the World U17 Challenge. So I wouldn't take any prognostications this far out as gospel.

Where did Craig say this?

 

[tantalum]

Still chuckling that they didn't even bother negotiating. I mean I suspected that is exactly what his negotiation skills are way back to the Sbisa contract which seemed the Sbisa camp saying we want this and Benning saying yes. But now we've had it confirmed from the Benning shill in the local media that yes that is exactly how he "negotiates".

 

[I am toxic]

Craig Button gets very few viewings on draft classes prior to international events like the World U17 Challenge. So I wouldn't take any prognostications this far out as gospel.

Where did Craig say this?

Mittens could probably draft as well as Button.

 

[Nucker42]

Sometimes I wonder if Benning ever reads his own interviews....

His quote after making the deal:

“I think there’s teams that still wanna move money and I think prices [on the trade market] will drop,” said Benning. “I think prices were high going into the draft, I think they’re gonna start coming down now as we get closer to free-agency and so we’ll see where it goes.”

He acknowledges that prices would be coming down yet pays the high asking price? Can someone please explain to me how this is acceptable?

Further to that, The Canucks playoff window likely starts in 3 years. Miller only has 4 years left. We may very well have just given up 2 picks for a guy that will play one playoff. On the other end of that, a 1st and 3rd pick may have been primed up and nhl ready in 3-4 years and joined the core for many years of control.

My personal list that is driving me away from the team because Benning is driving me crazy:

1. Awful at trades. Track record of dealing picks and players speaks for itself. Truly horrible.
2. Refuses to acquire picks even though team is good at drafting.
3. Unable to deal players prior to their value disappearing.
4. Truly awful at signing ufa’s. Loui Beagle Schaller etc.... which further handcuffs the team two fold. Take cap space away from signing actual difference makers. Takes roster spots away from young players knocking at the door.

Those are my two cents. I’m happy we got Miller but it is not acceptable for a non playoff team to deal picks. Benning must be fired before he destroys this team.

 

[krutovsdonut]

The dissenting voice in the room was shown the door already. I gather the Canucks front office is an echo chamber of stupidity in the fashion of that infamous Seguin trade video.

This move stinks of desperation. This is why you don't tell general managers that if they do not make the playoffs by a certain year they are fired. It creates a conflict of interest if the rebuild hasn't been as fast as intended. Also the goal should never be to make the playoffs, it should be to build a championship team.

do not kid yourself. the owner directed this to happen. the rogue lame duck gm theory does not hunt. i'd argue the opposite, that benning as a lame duck is more deferential to the owner than usual while trying to get extended.

aqualini is no absentee owner with other interests like mccaw. he is a rabid hockey fan in a hockey town who doubtless hears from everyone he knows about the team. he is the one having dinner with myers. after the last decade it is obvious he is setting the direction here and with even linden gone, he is the one initiating and signing off on these moves.

 

[RandV]

do not kid yourself. the owner directed this to happen. the rogue lame duck gm theory does not hunt. i'd argue the opposite, that benning as a lame duck is more deferential to the owner than usual while trying to get extended.

aqualini is no absentee owner with other interests like mccaw. he is a rabid hockey fan in a hockey town who doubtless hears from everyone he knows about the team. he is the one having dinner with myers. after the last decade it is obvious he is setting the direction here and with even linden gone, he is the one initiating and signing off on these moves.

I'd say certainly the owner okayed that Benning could trade a future 1st, that doesn't mean he directed Benning specifically who to acquire and then walked him through the negotiations.

 

[settinguptheplay]

I don't think there's anything disingenuous here. Tampa may have set their asking price at a 1st and a 3rd, but 1st rounders can have insanely different value. To convince New Jersey to give up their 1st this draft they'd have to give up a Hedman. To get the St. Louis 1st (owned by Buffalo) might only cost Alex Killorn if they're lucky.

Tampa could be asking for a 1st and 3rd for Miller thinking a playoff team like maybe Colorado might inquire. They must have been figuratively laughing their asses off when a frequent lottery team came to them and took the offer straight up.

You are supporting my very argument with your response. If Vancouver starts trying to negotiate down from a first, say two 2nd's instead, they risk a team like Colorado stepping up and offering a first. Then Vancouver is forced to dip into FA for a winger. How much would a 50 point winger whom is capable of playing all forward positions cost in the FA market? Certainly not 5.25m. Likely it would be 7+m which could hamstring further improvements. It is certainly a risk, perhaps even a potentially crippling risk, but it is also not a certainty. This team needs to make a step forward or we risk breeding a culture of losing like Edmonton. If we wait much longer we will be in a perpetual rebuild. Once we pay out the big money in 2 years to Hughes and Pettersson it will become increasingly difficult to bring in talent. Go big or go home and Benning, for better or worse, has decided to go big.

Ideally I would have preferred this push to happen next year. One more good pick in a deep draft. But it is what it is.

 

[settinguptheplay]

Not only that, but an overpayment is an overpayment notwithstanding later results. If Benning could have got Miller for substantially less, then this is a bad trade even if the Canucks make the playoffs in each of the next two seasons.

It’s like buying a used car for over the sticker price and finding out afterwards that there is a bag of money in the trunk.

But it is not an over payment, yet. A player of Miller's caliber would fetch a 1st plus at the trade deadline with no term left on his contract. A FA similar to Miller will get 7+m long term. Make the playoffs and the deal is win/win. Miss and win the lottery then it is franchise suicide. I think the odds of making the playoffs are far greater than us "winning" the lotto and committing franchise suicide. If the pick is 1~12 it is a bad to a very bad deal, 13~18 is a slight loss to even, 19~31 and it is a fair to good deal. Time to cheer for success!

 

[CanaFan]

This piece of the Harman Dayal article breaking down the Miller trade (which is excellent btw) is especially funny, in a gallows humor sort of way:

The other thing that I can’t quite understand is the timing of the deal given the context that GM Jim Benning provided on the trade market immediately following the draft.

“I think there’s teams that still wanna move money and I think prices [on the trade market] will drop,” said Benning. “I think prices were high going into the draft, I think they’re gonna start coming down now as we get closer to free-agency and so we’ll see where it goes.”

If trade market prices were high going into the draft and bound to come down, what was the rush to make the deal and pay full value on Day 2?

Follow by ...

At the same time, many have argued that the Lightning may not have seen a Miller trade as a must and that perhaps league-wide interest dictated the price at a hefty first and a third. It doesn’t sound like this was the case, as John Shannon told Sportsnet 650 that there weren’t many teams in on Miller.

 

[settinguptheplay]

do not kid yourself. the owner directed this to happen. the rogue lame duck gm theory does not hunt. i'd argue the opposite, that benning as a lame duck is more deferential to the owner than usual while trying to get extended.

aqualini is no absentee owner with other interests like mccaw. he is a rabid hockey fan in a hockey town who doubtless hears from everyone he knows about the team. he is the one having dinner with myers. after the last decade it is obvious he is setting the direction here and with even linden gone, he is the one initiating and signing off on these moves.

This can not be understated. Benning has obviously been told to push forward. I don't know where many of you work but if your boss tells you to do something you do it. It is easy to sit in our chairs and play armchair GM because we have no real skin in the game. Benning has his job on the line. He watched Gillis get turfed for standing up against the boss. I call BS that anyone here would not be doing the same thing Benning is if their boss told them to do it. Because if you didn't you would be unemployed. One does not have to like it but those are the facts of business.

 

[CanaFan]

This can not be understated. Benning has obviously been told to push forward. I don't know where many of you work but if your boss tells you to do something you do it. It is easy to sit in our chairs and play armchair GM because we have no real skin in the game. Benning has his job on the line. He watched Gillis get turfed for standing up against the boss. I call BS that anyone here would not be doing the same thing Benning is if their boss told them to do it. Because if you didn't you would be unemployed. One does not have to like it but those are the facts of business.

Well my boss can tell me what he needs the outcome to be, but if he actually sat down and tried to DO my job ... well, he'd probably bugger it up pretty bad and I'd probably start looking around for different work. Professional accountability should be a thing and unless Benning has none, he should probably try to steer Aquaman's "enthusiasm" in more productive directions. Simply order taking what the non-hockey man thinks are good moves is ... bad.

 

[timw33]

This can not be understated. Benning has obviously been told to push forward. I don't know where many of you work but if your boss tells you to do something you do it. It is easy to sit in our chairs and play armchair GM because we have no real skin in the game. Benning has his job on the line. He watched Gillis get turfed for standing up against the boss. I call BS that anyone here would not be doing the same thing Benning is if their boss told them to do it. Because if you didn't you would be unemployed. One does not have to like it but those are the facts of business.

Benning has been absolutely tanking his future employment opportunities and job prospects with his body of work for this team. If you boss told you to do something that would reflect extremely poorly on you, would be out there in the public for all to see, maybe you do need to stick up to your boss so that you don't completely screw over the rest of your career by continuing publicly mismanage a $700MM asset.

 

[settinguptheplay]

This piece of the Harman Dayal article breaking down the Miller trade (which is excellent btw) is especially funny, in a gallows humor sort of way:




Follow by ...

I would take anything the media says with a grain of salt. Too much speculation to know exactly what was going on as we have seen repeatedly over the years. And you don't need half the league to start a bidding war. So, by Shannon's own words, there was more than 1 team in on Miller and therefore a risk that trying to negotiate might send Miller to a different team. Miller is not a cap dump in the same way someone like Marleau was. In fact I would argue he was not a cap dump at all as TB had both time and other options before they were pressed to make a move.

 

[settinguptheplay]

Well my boss can tell me what he needs the outcome to be, but if he actually sat down and tried to DO my job ... well, he'd probably bugger it up pretty bad and I'd probably start looking around for different work. Professional accountability should be a thing and unless Benning has none, he should probably try to steer Aquaman's "enthusiasm" in more productive directions. Simply order taking what the non-hockey man thinks are good moves is ... bad.

I replied to you once today. Well, twice now. That is my daily limit until tomorrow. Then the gloves are off my friend!

 

[CanaFan]

I would take anything the media says with a grain of salt. Too much speculation to know exactly what was going on as we have seen repeatedly over the years. And you don't need half the league to start a bidding war. So, by Shannon's own words, there was more than 1 team in on Miller and therefore a risk that trying to negotiate might send Miller to a different team. Miller is not a cap dump in the same way someone like Marleau was. In fact I would argue he was not a cap dump at all as TB had both time and other options before they were pressed to make a move.

I take everything with a grain of salt, but these are indicators that there was little urgency or competition for Miller, which further illustrates the degree to which Benning over-paid. And yes, he was a cap dump in the sense that there was an urgency to rectify their cap situation prior to July 1. That he has (significantly) more value than Marleau doesn't change that Tampa had reasons for this move beyond the conventional "hockey trade" (hence draft picks only, no contracts going back).

The article states what it states. You don't have to accept those as sufficient reasons to dislike the trade but for others it exacerbates the already poor value of the deal.

 

[settinguptheplay]

Benning has been absolutely tanking his future employment opportunities and job prospects with his body of work for this team. If you boss told you to do something that would reflect extremely poorly on you, would be out there in the public for all to see, maybe you do need to stick up to your boss so that you don't completely screw over the rest of your career by continuing publicly mismanage a $700MM asset.

I would have the choice to refuse and quit or risk getting fired. Telling your boss that you will not follow his instructions would look pretty bad for future employment as well. No one is going to hire someone who refuses their bosses instructions. It goes both ways. At least this way Benning still has a small chance that it all works out. Refusing the boss is a 100% chance to fail. Check out Mike Gillis. He was a great GM whom got blackballed partially because he was defiant in the face of the owner.

 

[CanaFan]

I replied to you once today. Well, twice now. That is my daily limit until tomorrow. Then the gloves are off my friend!

 

[CanaFan]

I would have the choice to refuse and quit or risk getting fired. Telling your boss that you will not follow his instructions would look pretty bad for future employment as well. No one is going to hire someone who refuses their bosses instructions. It goes both ways. At least this way Benning still has a small chance that it all works out. Refusing the boss is a 100% chance to fail. Check out Mike Gillis. He was a great GM whom got blackballed partially because he was defiant in the face of the owner.

Hard to say. Nonis reportedly refused to acquire Brad Richards at the 2008 deadline because he disagreed with the move and was subsequently fired. He popped up in Toronto fairly soon after. I'd say it depends more on your connections (i.e. the "old boys club") than on a reputation for not simply doing whatever the owner asked. There's always more nuance at play than just one thing.

 

[4Twenty]

You are supporting my very argument with your response. If Vancouver starts trying to negotiate down from a first, say two 2nd's instead, they risk a team like Colorado stepping up and offering a first. Then Vancouver is forced to dip into FA for a winger. How much would a 50 point winger whom is capable of playing all forward positions cost in the FA market? Certainly not 5.25m. Likely it would be 7+m which could hamstring further improvements. It is certainly a risk, perhaps even a potentially crippling risk, but it is also not a certainty. This team needs to make a step forward or we risk breeding a culture of losing like Edmonton. If we wait much longer we will be in a perpetual rebuild. Once we pay out the big money in 2 years to Hughes and Pettersson it will become increasingly difficult to bring in talent. Go big or go home and Benning, for better or worse, has decided to go big.

Ideally I would have preferred this push to happen next year. One more good pick in a deep draft. But it is what it is.

Moving a 1st round pick hamstrings further improvements more so than a ~$2m difference in cap hit.

 

[krutovsdonut]

Benning has been absolutely tanking his future employment opportunities and job prospects with his body of work for this team. If you boss told you to do something that would reflect extremely poorly on you, would be out there in the public for all to see, maybe you do need to stick up to your boss so that you don't completely screw over the rest of your career by continuing publicly mismanage a $700MM asset.

i think everyone in hockey understands benning's position is more nuanced than that. he may not get another gm gig, but i think he gets work if he wants it. nonis and gillis can vouch for him.

 

[4Twenty]

I would take anything the media says with a grain of salt. Too much speculation to know exactly what was going on as we have seen repeatedly over the years. And you don't need half the league to start a bidding war. So, by Shannon's own words, there was more than 1 team in on Miller and therefore a risk that trying to negotiate might send Miller to a different team. Miller is not a cap dump in the same way someone like Marleau was. In fact I would argue he was not a cap dump at all as TB had both time and other options before they were pressed to make a move.

He was a move made with cap considerations, you don't like the term "dump" but the reason they made the move had direct salary cap implications.

They had less than a week before Miller's limited-NTC kicked in, so they were certainly constrained by time.

And Benning stating he expects prices to drop just makes him pushing the deal through even worse.

Your posts read like non-stop excuses at every turn.

 

[settinguptheplay]

He was a move made with cap considerations, you don't like the term "dump" but the reason they made the move had direct salary cap implications.

They had less than a week before Miller's limited-NTC kicked in, so they were certainly constrained by time.

And Benning stating he expects prices to drop just makes him pushing the deal through even worse.

Your posts read like non-stop excuses at every turn.

There were other players they could have traded to remain cap compliant and plenty of time to do it.

As for the last sentence. I am being nice today so I will just say yes... I just love making excuses. It fills my heart with joy.