[VAN/TBL] Cond. 1st ('20 / '21) Plus for J.T. Miller || Part 2

[Bleach Clean]

Miller is a better player than Horvat. I did not know that before the trade. Really the trade is done from Vancouver perspective. Does it really matter what NJ drafts? If NJ drafts a good or bad player has no effect on Canucks. It only matters to public opinion of the trade. It is interesting for the egos of people who took a position on trade but it no longer matters to team except what year do they lose their first.

Why does the year they lose the pick matter, but not the quality of either the pick or the player?

The trade is not done. It matters where the picks ends up.

I think people like yourself want to ignore the cost in the face of Miller’s great performance. It’s a position that clearly lacks logic.

 

[CantStoptheBrock]

Why does the year they lose the pick matter, but not the quality of either the pick or the player?

The trade is not done. It matters where the picks ends up.

I think people like yourself want to ignore the cost in the face of Miller’s great performance. It’s a position that clearly lacks logic.

Why does the quality of the player drafted affect the Miller trade whatsoever?

LA used the second rounder they acquired from us for Vey to draft Roland McKeown, who of course was hyped up around here for years until he, like Gustav Forsling, faded into obscurity and the thousands of bellyaching posts amounted to nothing but time poorly wasted. That doesn't mean that LA still didn't "win" that trade.

At the end of the day, Miller played like a first-line power forward in his first season here, contributed a ton of intangible value, and is on an excellent contract. You'd be lucky to find a player that good in the top-10 of a draft. Unless the Canucks somehow against all odds end up giving NJ a top-5 pick, then the trade is etched in stone at this point as BRILLIANT. But keep holding onto the increasingly infinitesimal chance that your bad take gets validated by some Deus Ex Machina of Canuck Luck. Yes, the very heights of logic!

 

[Sneezy]

Why does the quality of the player drafted affect the Miller trade whatsoever?

LA used the second rounder they acquired from us for Vey to draft Roland McKeown, who of course was hyped up around here for years until he, like Gustav Forsling, faded into obscurity and the thousands of bellyaching posts amounted to nothing but time poorly wasted. That doesn't mean that LA still didn't "win" that trade.

At the end of the day, Miller played like a first-line power forward in his first season here, contributed a ton of intangible value, and is on an excellent contract. You'd be lucky to find a player that good in the top-10 of a draft. Unless the Canucks somehow against all odds end up giving NJ a top-5 pick, then the trade is etched in stone at this point as BRILLIANT. But keep holding onto the increasingly infinitesimal chance that your bad take gets validated by some Deus Ex Machina of Canuck Luck. Yes, the very heights of logic!

Well said my good man, you should be a consultant working for the Canucks.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

Why does the year they lose the pick matter, but not the quality of either the pick or the player?

The trade is not done. It matters where the picks ends up.

I think people like yourself want to ignore the cost in the face of Miller’s great performance. It’s a position that clearly lacks logic.

You're being unreasonable.
The Kessel trade to Toronto was good because he put up a solid season with the Leafs and potted 30 goals. It doesn't matter where their picks ended up because Kessel was a great addition to the team.

 

[Bleach Clean]

You're being unreasonable.
The Kessel trade to Toronto was good because he put up a solid season with the Leafs and potted 30 goals. It doesn't matter where their picks ended up because Kessel was a great addition to the team.

You’re being facetious I know, and it does serve to highlight the poor nature of the counter arguments, but let’s not gloss over one key contention: The quality of the player.

If NJ gets the pick this year in the mid-range and drafts a franchise player, then yes, that cannot be reasonably foreseen. In that case, the quality of the player matters far less in the overall assertion. The odds were stacked against that outcome.

However, getting a high end player from the top10 is not unreasonable. In such a case, player and pick quality walk hand in hand.

The argument that the quality of the player does not matter at all, no matter where the pick lands, is of course logically unsound... but we know this already.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Why does the year they lose the pick matter, but not the quality of either the pick or the player?

Because the year they lose the pick was a specific feature of the trade subject to negotiation and the quality of the pick and the player drafted with it are random and unaccountable to a certain degree. I'd have thought this difference and its relevance would be obvious.

 

[Didalee Hed]

Why does the quality of the player drafted affect the Miller trade whatsoever?

LA used the second rounder they acquired from us for Vey to draft Roland McKeown, who of course was hyped up around here for years until he, like Gustav Forsling, faded into obscurity and the thousands of bellyaching posts amounted to nothing but time poorly wasted. That doesn't mean that LA still didn't "win" that trade.

At the end of the day, Miller played like a first-line power forward in his first season here, contributed a ton of intangible value, and is on an excellent contract. You'd be lucky to find a player that good in the top-10 of a draft. Unless the Canucks somehow against all odds end up giving NJ a top-5 pick, then the trade is etched in stone at this point as BRILLIANT. But keep holding onto the increasingly infinitesimal chance that your bad take gets validated by some Deus Ex Machina of Canuck Luck. Yes, the very heights of logic!

Your great hero benning paid full price for a team with their pants around their ankles nodding towards a bottle of lube.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Because the year they lose the pick was a specific feature of the trade subject to negotiation and the quality of the pick and the player drafted with it are random and unaccountable to a certain degree. I'd have thought this difference and its relevance would be obvious.

That randomness is baked into the deal as the risk assumed by the GM when making it.

The year, the player, the quality of the pick all matters.

But noted: To bandwagon, the quality of the player or pick does not matter because of the increased variability introduced by the conditional year.

 

[Didalee Hed]

I have to say the level of discourse is so low around here, that I'm about ready to give up. It feels like arguing against Trump supporters.

Oh no how horrible

Bye

 

[ChilliBilly]

In my opinion the end result of the player who gets drafted from our pic is not the issue. If the pic is anywhere in the top eight regardless of how that player turns out I would say we lost the trade reminding you that we also included a third round pick. If that pic is later than 15 regardless of how that player turns out I think it will turn out to be a good trade for us.

 

[Catamarca Livin]

You’re being facetious I know, and it does serve to highlight the poor nature of the counter arguments, but let’s not gloss over one key contention: The quality of the player.

If NJ gets the pick this year in the mid-range and drafts a franchise player, then yes, that cannot be reasonably foreseen. In that case, the quality of the player matters far less in the overall assertion. The odds were stacked against that outcome.

However, getting a high end player from the top10 is not unreasonable. In such a case, player and pick quality walk hand in hand.

The argument that the quality of the player does not matter at all, no matter where the pick lands, is of course logically unsound... but we know this already.

The quality of the player/pick traded matters to grading the trade, which only matters to us because we like to think about alternative/fake worlds. The Canucks next pick matters to the team the one they traded does not affect the Canucks in anyway now.

As far as grading the trade, the Kessel trade was for much more than Miller. Miller is a more complete player on a great contract. He win value was that of a 9 million dollar player last year. I like the Miller trade pretty much no matter what happens with our pick. We gave up a first for a top 25 forward on a great contract. We can flip Miller anytime for a similar first or other great asset.

 

[Bleach Clean]

The quality of the player/pick traded matters to grading the trade, which only matters to us because we like to think about alternative/fake worlds. The Canucks next pick matters to the team the one they traded does not affect the Canucks in anyway now.

As far as grading the trade, the Kessel trade was for much more than Miller. Miller is a more complete player on a great contract. He win value was that of a 9 million dollar player last year. I like the Miller trade pretty much no matter what happens with our pick. We gave up a first for a top 25 forward on a great contract. We can flip Miller anytime for a similar first or other great asset.

Simple question: Did the picks matter for TOR when they were traded for Kessel, or not?

This is a time where I urge the poster, such as yourself, to reconsider your position. There isn't a reality where the value given up no longer matters in the accounting of a trade simply because it leaves the organization. Like is that how you seriously judge trades?

Where the pick ended up for BOS _mattered_ in how that trade was judged across both teams. That BOS reaped the benefits of that deal in no way makes that a fake cost to TOR.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Simple question: Did the picks matter for TOR when they were traded for Kessel, or not?

This is a time where I urge the poster, such as yourself, to reconsider your position. There isn't a reality where the value given up no longer matters in the accounting of a trade simply because it leaves the organization. Like is that how you seriously judge trades?

Where the pick ended up for BOS _mattered_ in how that trade was judged across both teams. That BOS reaped the benefits of that deal in no way makes that a fake cost to TOR.

The value of the pick as such matters, and that value is determined by an accounting of how valuable players drafted at that spot generally are, and possibly the perceived strength of the draft. The eventual value of the specific player drafted, insofar as it can't reasonably be predicted except in general terms, is not a factor in determining the success of a trade or the value of the assets traded. I'm pretty sure every disinterested observer realizes this.

 

[Bleach Clean]

The value of the pick as such matters, and that value is determined by an accounting of how valuable players drafted at that spot generally are, and possibly the perceived strength of the draft. The eventual value of the specific player drafted, insofar as it can't reasonably be predicted except in general terms, is not a factor in determining the success of a trade or the value of the assets traded. I'm pretty sure every disinterested observer realizes this.

I think I have addressed this exact point in my earlier post. Read it again.

 

[Breakers]

Thanks Tampa for negotiating that contract for us.

 

[VanJack]

Thanks Tampa for negotiating that contract for us.

Lol!....Yep, Tampa saved Jimbo from himself by negotiating a cost-controlled with Miller for the next three seasons.

Based on his precedent of re-signing ugly, big money contracts with Sutter and Gudbranson, can you imagine what Jimbo would have coughed up if Miller had been an RFA or UFA this summer? Whew!

 

[Catamarca Livin]

Why does the year they lose the pick matter, but not the quality of either the pick or the player?

The trade is not done. It matters where the picks ends up.

I think people like yourself want to ignore the cost in the face of Miller’s great performance. It’s a position that clearly lacks logic.[/QUOTE
Who NJ picks or when they pick does not affect the Canucks in anyway except the year we pick. It affects our assessment of the trade but not the assets on the Canucks. No matter what NJ receives in the future the Canucks are in the same situation.

You are talking about the assessment of the trade while I am talking about the consequence of the trade on the Canucks. Without doubt the Canucks are a better team because of this deal. They hit a homerun that does not depend on NJ's pick. The consequence of this trade was positive for the Canucks. The consequence for TB was positive as well though I would say less so. The consequence for NJ is TBD, though it is a plausible that they get a very good young player, while TB wins a cup and Vancouver sped up their progress to a legit playoff team. Neither of the successful outcomes depends on a negative outcome for the other teams. They are now three different team spectrums to view these two independent trades which makes assessing this trade difficult. However one assesses these trade the truth is that the outcome for one team does not affect the outcome for the other teams.

 

[Hodgy]

The Miller trade looks like a good trade, perhaps a great trade, but it’s still too early to conclude that. What if the NHL resumes, we lose to the Wild, and next year we finish bottom five and Miller regresses you a 60 point pace? You may view this as unlikely, and perhaps that’s true, but the chances of this occurring are not infinitesimal.

But in any event, does it really matter? It’s pretty f***ing clear to anyone paying attention that Benning got lucky on this one if it does end up being a good to great trade. Save for a few, his professional acquisitions have been all bad or terrible, so it would be pretty bizarre to ignore the overwhelming evidence that he’s a terrible professional talent evaluator by clinging to this one trade. Terrible GMs make good acquisitions from time to time. It doesn’t mean they are any less terrible, it just means they got lucky. Dave Nonis wasn’t a good GM and he basically acquired Luongo for Bertuzzi.

 

[Mr. Canucklehead]

Discussion on Benning and his moves as manager can continue in the Management thread. Discussions on the upcoming draft can go in the draft thread.

Shutting this one down.