[VAN/TBL] Cond. 1st ('20 / '21) Plus for J.T. Miller || Part 2

[lousy]

Miller’s season was impressive no doubt. But let’s not act like he wasn’t also playing with Pettersson. He never would have had a season like that in Tampa, nor playing on Horvat’s wing.

And as always with a Benning acquisition, you wonder if there wasn’t an element of trying specifically to make the trade look good.

As much as I like Pettersson, I would say it was him who really benefited playing with Miller. Miller was the driving force on many nights. Which makes the trade look even better because he made others better around him.

 

[Jyrki21]

So Miller tried extra hard just to make Benning look good? Alright then...

I would point out that I was referring to his deployment, but you already knew that.

And yes, everyone, I said outright he was very good. But also that certain factors contributed to that in a way that makes it harder to compare to what was expected at the time.

 

[nowhereman]

If you tried to miss the point, you couldnt have done any better.

Or perhaps I didn't care for said point?

When the trade was made, it was clear Miller was going to play in the top six and looked like a great fit alongside Pettersson. Within a few games of playing together, the chemistry was obvious. There's no need to attach any additional "context" and insinuate that management tried to prop Miller's play up by having him ride Pettersson's coattails. And it's pretty hard to ride someone's coattails, when you're the one outpacing them.

I know it hurts really, really bad to admit but this is the rare case where Benning knocked it out of the park and no amount of spin can change that.

 

[Fatass]

Or perhaps I didn't care for said point?

When the trade was made, it was clear Miller was going to play in the top six and looked like a great fit alongside Pettersson. Within a few games of playing together, the chemistry was obvious. There's no need to attach any additional "context" and insinuate that management tried to prop Miller's play up by having him ride Pettersson's coattails. And it's pretty hard to ride someone's coattails, when you're the one outpacing them.

I know it hurts really, really bad to admit but this is the rare case where Benning knocked it out of the park and no amount of spin can change that.

So this trade brings JB’s trade batting average to about his IQ?

 

[Bleach Clean]

Or perhaps I didn't care for said point?

When the trade was made, it was clear Miller was going to play in the top six and looked like a great fit alongside Pettersson. Within a few games of playing together, the chemistry was obvious. There's no need to attach any additional "context" and insinuate that management tried to prop Miller's play up by having him ride Pettersson's coattails. And it's pretty hard to ride someone's coattails, when you're the one outpacing them.

I know it hurts really, really bad to admit but this is the rare case where Benning knocked it out of the park and no amount of spin can change that.

Do you have a link to what you said at the time of trade?

No spin is necessary on this trade. There’s a veritable mountain full of bad management moves one could point to disparage Benning. This one deal is next to nothing compared to that. No need to try and turn it.

What this deal does do is illuminate how people judge the rationale to a transaction.

 

[rypper]

I wonder if the trade will still have the same shine next season if after putting up a career year Miller comes back to his average pace of 40 ish points?

I think that's where a lot of the initial skepticism of the trade came from. I don't think anyone can truly say they saw Miller coming in and taking off like he did, to the level he did.

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

I’d be happy if Miller maintains a 55-80 point range for the rest of his contract.

 

[Peter10]

Or perhaps I didn't care for said point?

You commented on it so you cared. You also argued against a point nobody made, saying something else now doesnt change that.

 

[xtra]

I’d be happy if Miller maintains a 55-80 point range for the rest of his contract.

that’s a huge range of outcomes

80- Tyler seguin
55 - Kevin Hayes

there are nearly 60 players that fall in that range (dmen and forwards)

 

[Frankie Blueberries]

that’s a huge range of outcomes

80- Tyler seguin
55 - Kevin Hayes

there are nearly 60 players that fall in that range (dmen and forwards)

Yeah, but Miller plays an excellent two-way game, takes face offs, is our best player on the boards, and can be slotted literally anywhere in our lineup. Miller at 55 points is still one of our best top 6 forwards. It is a huge range though, but those are my expectations and I'd be fairly happy if he maintained a 55+ point pace for the rest of his contract.

 

[clunk]

Yeah, but Miller plays an excellent two-way game, takes face offs, is our best player on the boards, and can be slotted literally anywhere in our lineup. Miller at 55 points is still one of our best top 6 forwards. It is a huge range though, but those are my expectations and I'd be fairly happy if he maintained a 55+ point pace for the rest of his contract.

Yeah. He's the kind of guy I want to stay here the rest of his career. I'd be fine with 55-60 points as well as long as he brings a killer two way game and a degree of toughness. You'd hope for 30~ goals being the norm as well. Not an easy player to play against.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Or perhaps I didn't care for said point?

When the trade was made, it was clear Miller was going to play in the top six and looked like a great fit alongside Pettersson. Within a few games of playing together, the chemistry was obvious. There's no need to attach any additional "context" and insinuate that management tried to prop Miller's play up by having him ride Pettersson's coattails. And it's pretty hard to ride someone's coattails, when you're the one outpacing them.

I know it hurts really, really bad to admit but this is the rare case where Benning knocked it out of the park and no amount of spin can change that.

Except that’s also wrong. Benning did not knock it out of the park. Miller has been great for us, no doubt, but you can’t ignore the fact that he was a cap dump. A cap dump where Benning gave away all leverage and ended up paying full price. That is the problem people have with the trade.

 

[Buresflyingelbow]

Except that’s also wrong. Benning did not knock it out of the park. Miller has been great for us, no doubt, but you can’t ignore the fact that he was a cap dump. A cap dump where Benning gave away all leverage and ended up paying full price. That is the problem people have with the trade.

a conditional first and 3rd and the first being in a choice of 3 different drafts? Yeah he knocked it out of the park.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

Except that’s also wrong. Benning did not knock it out of the park. Miller has been great for us, no doubt, but you can’t ignore the fact that he was a cap dump. A cap dump where Benning gave away all leverage and ended up paying full price. That is the problem people have with the trade.

Long time no see. Been a while.

 

[F A N]

I wonder if the trade will still have the same shine next season if after putting up a career year Miller comes back to his average pace of 40 ish points?

I think that's where a lot of the initial skepticism of the trade came from. I don't think anyone can truly say they saw Miller coming in and taking off like he did, to the level he did.

Average pace of 40ish points? His worst season in the past 4 seasons was last season when he had 47 points in 75 games. He's averaged 55+ points 3 out of his past 4 seasons (including this one). Saying his average pace is 40 ish points is just wrong.

 

[rypper]

Average pace of 40ish points? His worst season in the past 4 seasons was last season when he had 47 points in 75 games. He's averaged 55+ points 3 out of his past 4 seasons (including this one). Saying his average pace is 40 ish points is just wrong.

Admittedly after going back and looking at his stats I didn't add his numbers from the season he spilt time in New York and Tampa.

40 ish is completely wrong. 55 ish is more correctly where he averages.

 

[Didalee Hed]

Admittedly after going back and looking at his stats I didn't add his numbers from the season he spilt time in New York and Tampa.

40 ish is completely wrong. 55 ish is more correctly where he averages.

Good man

 

[Bleach Clean]

Admittedly after going back and looking at his stats I didn't add his numbers from the season he spilt time in New York and Tampa.

40 ish is completely wrong. 55 ish is more correctly where he averages.

If you take a bigger sample, he's more like a 52~ point forward, but yes, more than 40 points per 82 games.

---------------------------

Harman Dayal goes into the Miller Trade Assessment (sort of) at the 30 min mark here:

Rink Wide: May 9


Main points:

1. Best to lock the cost into the Miller Trade by dealing the pick this year.
2. The Canucks are not a 100% playoff lock even with Miller, still a bubble team.
3. Underlying metrics point to a lot of things going right for the Canucks this year:
- Have been outshot and outchanced
- Markstrom and PP keeping them afloat

I wonder why he thinks it's important to lock in the cost to the JT Miller trade when some have already proclaimed it to be a trade win? Further, why is he talking about the playoff potential of the Canucks when only Miller's PPG is relevant? Hmmm.

 

[Peter10]

a conditional first and 3rd and the first being in a choice of 3 different drafts? Yeah he knocked it out of the park.

What 3 different drafts? Its either 2020 or 2021.

 

[tantalum]

Going to stick to my guns on this. It wasn't a good trade. I'm fully aware of how well Miller played and how the trade looks fine value wise. To me it's still not a good trade because it came at the wrong time.

You had Miller with a career year (and like not even close to his other years it was that much better). A rookie that was putting up historical numbers from the blueline. A goaltender putting in a season that should have Vezina consideration. A lightning hot PP. You had a top 6 that was quite frankly as good as any other (it was the previous season as well btw without Miller...a top 5 top 6 but the very very worst bottom 6). And with all that, if the season didn't get halted, the canucks were trending to finish out of the playoffs. So ya I still don't really like the trade as it stands today because the primary issues with the team weren't actually addressed (or were woefully addressed) and I don't think they will be adequately addressed by this inept management team moving forward. I don't like trading what I think will be a lottery pick, no matter what year they give it up, because I don't think the trade truly moves the dial on what is needed for the team/organization to be an annual threat to win a few playoff rounds even as good as he was for 60ish games.

Granted my tune might be very much different if they didn't piss away so many draft picks the previous years, hadn't blown a couple of first round picks and as a result actually had organizational depth. The team looks much different with another drafted good top 6 forward and another drafted top 4 D-man...that's a team that could very well be at the correct time and place to make the move. But they did mess a lot of that up and that plays into the appraisal.

 

[Tables of Stats]

I wonder if the trade will still have the same shine next season if after putting up a career year Miller comes back to his average pace of 40 ish points?

I think that's where a lot of the initial skepticism of the trade came from. I don't think anyone can truly say they saw Miller coming in and taking off like he did, to the level he did.

When has that ever been the case with Miller? The stats show that he's had the same P/60 over three-season (prior to being traded to Vancouver), across NYR and TBL, and that he can basically play with anybody. Show any evidence that we should expect a decline and back it up with something solid.

EDIT: Between the 15-16 season and now he's had a P/60 on less than 1.83 once, last season with Tampa when he was the odd man out in the top-6. If he goes back to being a 1.88 P/60 player, he'd still have 31 ES points with us this season (37 points over 82 games), which isn't bad at all.

 

[VanJack]

I wonder if the trade will still have the same shine next season if after putting up a career year Miller comes back to his average pace of 40 ish points?

I think that's where a lot of the initial skepticism of the trade came from. I don't think anyone can truly say they saw Miller coming in and taking off like he did, to the level he did.

A post that's 'dead-on' imo. You always have to be cautious about players who bust out and have one 'career year'. Miller's scoring stats during his other seasons in the league, are probably a better barometer of what the Canucks can expect moving forward.

But now that we know the 2020 first rounder they gave up will be no better than 17-18 overall, I think you can live with that.

 

[Jyrki21]

Granted my tune might be very much different if they didn't piss away so many draft picks the previous years, hadn't blown a couple of first round picks and as a result actually had organizational depth. The team looks much different with another drafted good top 6 forward and another drafted top 4 D-man...that's a team that could very well be at the correct time and place to make the move.

Ironically shedding Brackett probably reduces the present value of future draft picks, and in that sense it makes any trades for futures “better” just like that.

“Wouldn’t have gotten much anyway...”

 

[604]

With 24 teams in the playoffs, is there a conceivable scenario where we get knocked out in the 1st round and the other underdogs win which means we'd give up the #8 pick?

Not saying that it's a good or bad thing, just wondering what other people think.

 

[y2kcanucks]

a conditional first and 3rd and the first being in a choice of 3 different drafts? Yeah he knocked it out of the park.

2 different drafts*

And no, he didn’t knock it out of the park. Again, he paid full price for a cap dump. But I see you didn’t bother to address that.