Yes a strict unprotected first rounder from the Canucks would be a terrific deal for the Lightning. That wasn't the deal though. There was a condition. I'm not going to pretend I know what the exact odds are but with Miller, a bubble Canuck team could make the playoffs in one of those two seasons.
A year and pandemic later we don't fully know yet. It looks like it it will be a 15+ pick, in not ouch. It really is still pandemic pending. Season cancelled, it should not be a lottery pick, the small chance the season continues then well we shall see. In my opinion the Canucks have a better chance of being out of the lottery this year than next.
This trade ranges from solid to outstanding for Tampa and solid to soul crushing for Vancouver. Right now trending to be solid for both.
Opinions evolve where the knowledge of the conditional picks lands, beit a lottery pick or 15+.
Millier's caeer year does not serves as the primary purpose. Being his typical 50+ point two-way on a good contract is. I accept his norm and do not expect that high even though would be welcomed.
Are future pieces such as prospects and draft picks easier to attain at the tdl then at the draft? Easier to give up the unkown months out opposed to what is infront of you.
Not you in particular but I do still shake my head at plainly calling Miller a cap dump. Yes, Tampa needed to move salary but as a stacked team, the moved a desirable contract (because of the players attached). Miller was never going to be a penny on the dollar situation
A lot to unpack here:
The cap dump argument is such a waste of time because no one should be arguing whether or not Miller was a cap dump, he was. Tampa had to move him due to cap concerns. Once that term is parked, then the impact on value is discussed, which is the real issue.
Next, the condition on the 1st rounder only slightly averts risk. With a team that had the 2nd worst record over a 4 year span, and had finished 22nd overall as a high point, what math would you be using to conclude they were a bubble team as a baseline? Think about the logic behind this assertion.
For people such as myself who see the trade as being brutal in thought pattern, locking the pick into the 15+ range will be a sigh of relief. A bad GM making a bizarre trade that averted disaster due to luck.
Knowing where the pick lands does not add nuance to an opinion. It merely grounds an opinion that was already nuanced. For example, there are people already calling this trade a win regardless of where the pick lands. That opinion is not bettered by further information.
The primary purpose of acquiring Miller was to have him help the Canucks make the playoffs. At 60 points or 80 points, the playoffs are/were still the goal. Meaning, his performance should have been secondary to that end. Yet, his performance was isolated as the only marker.
I would say that future pieces are easier to acquire for bad teams at the TDL than at the draft, yes. I look no further than Benning's readiness to give up picks pre-draft and then chase them at the draft only to fall short.
