[VAN/TBL] Cond. 1st ('20 / '21) Plus for J.T. Miller || Part 2

[y2kcanucks]

With 24 teams in the playoffs, is there a conceivable scenario where we get knocked out in the 1st round and the other underdogs win which means we'd give up the #8 pick?

Not saying that it's a good or bad thing, just wondering what other people think.

I read today that the draft could be in late August/September so I suppose this could come about. Would be very interesting to see how the draft is seeded and how that would affect our draft pick. If we have a top 10 pick I absolutely wouldn’t want to lose it. Grabbing Drysdale in this draft would be huge.

 

[clunk]

I read today that the draft could be in late August/September so I suppose this could come about. Would be very interesting to see how the draft is seeded and how that would affect our draft pick. If we have a top 10 pick I absolutely wouldn’t want to lose it. Grabbing Drysdale in this draft would be huge.

Drysdale would be ****ing massive for us if we could manage to snag him. Having two defensemen that can contribute offensively and to the transition game in this era like both Hughes and Drysdale can would be absolutely massive... Stick one on each PP unit to run the PP and have a killer one two punch for the next 15~ years if fortunate enough. One of the only d-men I could see keeping up with Hughes on a pairing too.

 

[Lindgren]

My guess is that the final assessment on the Miller trade will be made in a couple of years. That's when we'll know what Benning's successor gets back for Miller when he trades him at the age of 29, with one year remaining on his contract.

 

[VC]

Miller may have been a cap dump for the Lightning but he was still a piece that held value. A 50-60 point winger on a solid contract for his age has value, not a typical cap dump that goes for pennies on the dollar. I like many other loathe giving up a 1st round draft pick. Even a one year conditional. Massive risk with how this team has trended the last handful of years. If the pick ends up in the 15+ range then it is a small miracle that gamble worked out.

Really didn't like it at the time as I didn't like the risk. Happy that it looks to have worked out in year one, draft pick wise. Going he will be a solid winger doing 50-60 points. I don't really expect ppg+.

Regardless of the massive risk given up to attaining Miller, he is by far the best player this management team has acquired.

 

[Fatass]

Miller may have been a cap dump for the Lightning but he was still a piece that held value. A 50-60 point winger on a solid contract for his age has value, not a typical cap dump that goes for pennies on the dollar. I like many other loathe giving up a 1st round draft pick. Even a one year conditional. Massive risk with how this team has trended the last handful of years. If the pick ends up in the 15+ range then it is a small miracle that gamble worked out.

Really didn't like it at the time as I didn't like the risk. Happy that it looks to have worked out in year one, draft pick wise. Going he will be a solid winger doing 50-60 points. I don't really expect ppg+.

Regardless of the massive risk given up to attaining Miller, he is by far the best player this management team has acquired.

Considering your assertion that Miller was a cap dump to TBay, and a star in our team, what does that say about the team Benning/wisebrod built? Maybe the top teams trade their extra guys for bottom teams first round and second round picks all the time? Maybe those types of trades are why TBay is really good and we’re not?

 

[Knight53]

I expect a 65-70 point guy who brings excellent defence and leadership. Can play center or wing. Pretty much what Kesler was for us when he was good. He's an elite asset to have. I can see some PPG seasons if he continues to play with EP and Boeser.

As far as the trade we need to give up the pick this year. The draft drops off a cliff after the top 10. If the trade is Miller for a 15th to 20th pick the trade is a homerun which is the likely outcome.

Like I said before Benning is probably the luckiest guy in hockey I've ever seen.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Miller may have been a cap dump for the Lightning but he was still a piece that held value. A 50-60 point winger on a solid contract for his age has value, not a typical cap dump that goes for pennies on the dollar. I like many other loathe giving up a 1st round draft pick. Even a one year conditional. Massive risk with how this team has trended the last handful of years. If the pick ends up in the 15+ range then it is a small miracle that gamble worked out.

Really didn't like it at the time as I didn't like the risk. Happy that it looks to have worked out in year one, draft pick wise. Going he will be a solid winger doing 50-60 points. I don't really expect ppg+.

Regardless of the massive risk given up to attaining Miller, he is by far the best player this management team has acquired.

A typical cap dump means you’re getting an asset with that player. No one is suggesting that’s what we needed here. But paying full price is the other end of the spectrum. Benning paid full price when he shouldn’t have needed to, but he’s too stupid to know when he has leverage. There’s no way a team like the Canucks should be trading away first round picks.

 

[y2kcanucks]

I expect a 65-70 point guy who brings excellent defence and leadership. Can play center or wing. Pretty much what Kesler was for us when he was good. He's an elite asset to have. I can see some PPG seasons if he continues to play with EP and Boeser.

As far as the trade we need to give up the pick this year. The draft drops off a cliff after the top 10. If the trade is Miller for a 15th to 20th pick the trade is a homerun which is the likely outcome.

Like I said before Benning is probably the luckiest guy in hockey I've ever seen.

Trading away a 1, and a 3, for a cap dump is never a home run.

 

[Knight53]

Trading away a 1, and a 3, for a cap dump is never a home run.

Picture the trade being made by Brackett or anyone but Benning. It'll make it easier.

 

[VC]

Considering your assertion that Miller was a cap dump to TBay, and a star in our team, what does that say about the team Benning/wisebrod built? Maybe the top teams trade their extra guys for bottom teams first round and second round picks all the time? Maybe those types of trades are why TBay is really good and we’re not?

True story. Benning and Co. have done a terrible job overall, wasn't trying to say otherwise. A cap dump yes, not a typical one but an attractive one to most teams. Not a Loui Ericksson situation where you need to pay to get rid of but like you said, the Lightning are a good team, a stacked team. Not your typical situation.

A typical cap dump means you’re getting an asset with that player. No one is suggesting that’s what we needed here. But paying full price is the other end of the spectrum. Benning paid full price when he shouldn’t have needed to, but he’s too stupid to know when he has leverage. There’s no way a team like the Canucks should be trading away first round picks.

Tampa was selling a solid asset/contract, they were going to get a solid return which they did. The gamble was/is how solid of a return it is.

A 15-30 1st and a 3rd is closer to full value to a tdl rental return then it is for a signed player. Not too many of those contracts gets moved, may not be considered full value for it. The conditions made it a gamble (not one that I would of done) but in the end looking like it may pay off.

This wasn't a trade that could be fully judged on the day it was made as the conditions hadn't been met. Instant judgment did not like, opinions can evolve as they gain more information.

 

[tyhee]

I was not a fan of this trade but I liked the player. But if people are still not on board even after hindsight then I really don't know what to say lol.
....

I liked the player and hated the trade.

With the benefit of almost a year of hindsight, I like the player even more and hate the trade at least as much. In fact, I don't understand what the reason for hating the trade would have been for anyone who likes it now.

What did Miller's great season do for the Canucks? It got them to the bubble where when the season was stopped, they were right on the border line of making the playoffs, having just won to get to that point. Their goalie was injured, their streak was to have won ONE game and they were under .500 for their last 10. We can argue about whether they'd make the playoffs, but clearly they were right on the bubble.

That's with a career year from Miller, a great year from Markstrom, a great year from Hughes and few injuries.

That, and they were in cap hell over the next two seasons even before the pandemic hit. Now it is virtually impossible unless the rules change for them to keep enough of their free agents to stay a bubble team for next season.

This trade by Benning was the ultimate "win now" deal. The signings of Myers and Ferland and the trade for Toffoli were also win now moves. The moves increased the salary cap considerably. They traded away one of their better prospects and 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks. What did it get them?

The bubble.

If you're happy with the bubble and this season was the most important thing about the team from your standpoint, it was a good deal. If you want future cap space and low cost (elc) players developing to play with EP and Hughes in their primes, all of these moves went the wrong direction.

The trade for Miller would have been a good one for a team in the right position, despite the fact Miller could probably have been obtained for less given his standing with the Lightning and their cap situation at the time they traded him.

For the Canucks it was awful, despite the cheers the fans got to enjoy from their bubble team fighting for the playoffs this season. That is compounded by signing Myers for too much money and too much term, signing Ferland and the late season trade for what could be a short-term rental of Tyler Toffoli.

 

[Lindgren]

I liked the player and hated the trade.

With the benefit of almost a year of hindsight, I like the player even more and hate the trade at least as much. In fact, I don't understand what the reason for hating the trade would have been for anyone who likes it now.

What did Miller's great season do for the Canucks? It got them to the bubble where when the season was stopped, they were right on the border line of making the playoffs, having just won to get to that point. Their goalie was injured, their streak was to have won ONE game and they were under .500 for their last 10. We can argue about whether they'd make the playoffs, but clearly they were right on the bubble.

That's with a career year from Miller, a great year from Markstrom, a great year from Hughes and few injuries.

That, and they were in cap hell over the next two seasons even before the pandemic hit. Now it is virtually impossible unless the rules change for them to keep enough of their free agents to stay a bubble team for next season.

This trade by Benning was the ultimate "win now" deal. The signings of Myers and Ferland and the trade for Toffoli were also win now moves. The moves increased the salary cap considerably. They traded away 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks. And where did it get them?

The bubble.

If you're happy with the bubble and this season was the most important thing about the team from your standpoint, it was a good deal. If you want future cap space and low cost (elc) players developing to play with EP and Hughes in their primes, all of these moves went the wrong direction.

The trade for Miller would have been a good one for a team in the right position (despite the fact Miller could probably have been obtained for less given his standing with the Lightning and their cap situation at the time they traded him.

For the Canucks it was awful, despite the cheers the fans got to enjoy from their mediocre team this season. That is compounded by signing Myers for too much money and too much term, signing Ferland and the late season trade for what could be a short-term rental of Tyler Toffoli.

Very well put. I've presented this argument before, but never as clearly and eloquently.

That's the main case against the trade. I've never read an adequate response to it.

 

[ProstheticConscience]

I liked the player and hated the trade.

With the benefit of almost a year of hindsight, I like the player even more and hate the trade at least as much. In fact, I don't understand what the reason for hating the trade would have been for anyone who likes it now.

What did Miller's great season do for the Canucks? It got them to the bubble where when the season was stopped, they were right on the border line of making the playoffs, having just won to get to that point. Their goalie was injured, their streak was to have won ONE game and they were under .500 for their last 10. We can argue about whether they'd make the playoffs, but clearly they were right on the bubble.

That's with a career year from Miller, a great year from Markstrom, a great year from Hughes and few injuries.

That, and they were in cap hell over the next two seasons even before the pandemic hit. Now it is virtually impossible unless the rules change for them to keep enough of their free agents to stay a bubble team for next season.

This trade by Benning was the ultimate "win now" deal. The signings of Myers and Ferland and the trade for Toffoli were also win now moves. The moves increased the salary cap considerably. They traded away 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks. And where did it get them?

The bubble.

If you're happy with the bubble and this season was the most important thing about the team from your standpoint, it was a good deal. If you want future cap space and low cost (elc) players developing to play with EP and Hughes in their primes, all of these moves went the wrong direction.

The trade for Miller would have been a good one for a team in the right position (despite the fact Miller could probably have been obtained for less given his standing with the Lightning and their cap situation at the time they traded him.

For the Canucks it was awful, despite the cheers the fans got to enjoy from their mediocre team this season. That is compounded by signing Myers for too much money and too much term, signing Ferland and the late season trade for what could be a short-term rental of Tyler Toffoli.

Yup. Well said. That's it exactly, even with Miller kicking all the ass he did this season.

 

[Bleach Clean]

----
Tampa was selling a solid asset/contract, they were going to get a solid return which they did. The gamble was/is how solid of a return it is.

A 15-30 1st and a 3rd is closer to full value to a tdl rental return then it is for a signed player. Not too many of those contracts gets moved, may not be considered full value for it. The conditions made it a gamble (not one that I would of done) but in the end looking like it may pay off.

This wasn't a trade that could be fully judged on the day it was made as the conditions hadn't been met. Instant judgment did not like, opinions can evolve as they gain more information.

Opinions should evolve over time, I agree. Not necessarily change, but evolve. This is nuance and not a reversal. For instance, it is startling that many altered their opinions on this deal without the team securing a playoff spot. That was the fulcrum to the deal, after all. Is it evolution to ignore this? Miller's individual performance is great, but what does it mean if it does not serve its primary purpose? We would have found out had they missed the playoffs.

Semantics, but I would consider an unprotected 1st rounder from a bottom feeder more than a "solid return".

The TDL is when premium futures are paid. At no other time are prices as inflated. Can you explain why you think these prices parallel those of signed players? Curious.

 

[y2kcanucks]

Picture the trade being made by Brackett or anyone but Benning. It'll make it easier.

Except that doesn’t change the fact that full price was paid for a cap dump.

 

[Knight53]

Except that doesn’t change the fact that full price was paid for a cap dump.

And now that "cap dump" is our 3rd or 4th most valuable asset in the organization. If we used this upcoming draft to determine his worth I wouldn't trade him for anything less than a top 5 pick, doubling his orginal cost value. Emotions are high because the trade could have turned into a disaster and sealed Bennings fate but the complete opposite happened and he hit the jackpot. So it sucks in that sense. I get it.

 

[VanJack]

What hurts about this year's draft isn't just a case of giving up a first rounder for Miller. Canuck fans have had a year to digest it, and initially the pick was lottery protected in 2020 and could have been deferred to 2021 anyway. And given Miller's production and cost-controlled contract, at least it balances out.

But the Tofoli trade is another matter. Giving up a second rounder AND a grade 'B' prospect like Tyler Madden, for 10 games of Tofoli is hard to swallow. And of course if the Canucks re-sign Tofoli, they owe the Kings another fourth round draft pick.

And it also means that with no chance of drafting a player in 2020 until 80th-90th overall, there's a possibility the Canucks get nobody who can actually play for them for three seasons at least, and maybe never.

 

[iceburg]

Short of deals like Naslund for Stoyanov, this fan base will always find a way to be critical of trades (or at least the vocal minority will). For some reason GMs are supposed to get top end assets for spare parts.
I was in the camp that the cost for Miller was very high when the deal happened. Giving up a first when they had no guarantee of making the playoffs in the foreseeable future was unwise. But, now that we've seen Miller have a great season, I am perfectly happy with the trade. I would hate to see the worst case scenario (being lottery bound for the two years and winning the lottery in the year they give up the pick) but that scenario is pretty remote and worth the gamble. And, until someone shows me that no other offers came close to Vancouver's, I dismiss the cap dump narrative as hyperbole.

 

[y2kcanucks]

And now that "cap dump" is our 3rd or 4th most valuable asset in the organization. If we used this upcoming draft to determine his worth I wouldn't trade him for anything less than a top 5 pick, doubling his orginal cost value. Emotions are high because the trade could have turned into a disaster and sealed Bennings fate but the complete opposite happened and he hit the jackpot. So it sucks in that sense. I get it.

It doesn’t matter what he’s become. At the time the trade was made he was a cap dump for Tampa. He was a decent player so no one was expecting Tampa to have to pay a pick for a team to take him, but they certainly were in no position to demand full price. Benning paid full price. He gave up the leverage he had. It’s a very simple concept.

 

[Fatass]

Except that doesn’t change the fact that full price was paid for a cap dump.

We usually agree on Benning’s mistakes, but I think you’re incorrect on the price paid by Benning for Miller. It was more than full price. Miller was not, at the time if trade, worth a high lottery pick. Fair value for Miller would have been less. JB, IMO, overpaid for Miller, regardless of TBay’s cap situation.

 

[Knight53]

It doesn’t matter what he’s become. At the time the trade was made he was a cap dump for Tampa. He was a decent player so no one was expecting Tampa to have to pay a pick for a team to take him, but they certainly were in no position to demand full price. Benning paid full price. He gave up the leverage he had. It’s a very simple concept.

The only thing that doesn't matter is what you thought of the trade initially. You could have thought he was the worst player in the league at the time it would mean jack right now. It was a risky trade a desperate GM made who had a 1C in his ear telling him to get a winger and it paid off massively. He got an elite asset into the organization for a mid first.

He potentially paid a bigger price for Toffoli than he did for Miller.

 

[VC]

Opinions should evolve over time, I agree. Not necessarily change, but evolve. This is nuance and not a reversal. For instance, it is startling that many altered their opinions on this deal without the team securing a playoff spot. That was the fulcrum to the deal, after all. Is it evolution to ignore this? Miller's individual performance is great, but what does it mean if it does not serve its primary purpose? We would have found out had they missed the playoffs.

Semantics, but I would consider an unprotected 1st rounder from a bottom feeder more than a "solid return".

The TDL is when premium futures are paid. At no other time are prices as inflated. Can you explain why you think these prices parallel those of signed players? Curious.

Yes a strict unprotected first rounder from the Canucks would be a terrific deal for the Lightning. That wasn't the deal though. There was a condition. I'm not going to pretend I know what the exact odds are but with Miller, a bubble Canuck team could make the playoffs in one of those two seasons.

A year and pandemic later we don't fully know yet. It looks like it it will be a 15+ pick, in not ouch. It really is still pandemic pending. Season cancelled, it should not be a lottery pick, the small chance the season continues then well we shall see. In my opinion the Canucks have a better chance of being out of the lottery this year than next.

This trade ranges from solid to outstanding for Tampa and solid to soul crushing for Vancouver. Right now trending to be solid for both.

Opinions evolve where the knowledge of the conditional picks lands, beit a lottery pick or 15+.

Millier's caeer year does not serves as the primary purpose. Being his typical 50+ point two-way on a good contract is. I accept his norm and do not expect that high even though would be welcomed.

Are future pieces such as prospects and draft picks easier to attain at the tdl then at the draft? Easier to give up the unkown months out opposed to what is infront of you.

Not you in particular but I do still shake my head at plainly calling Miller a cap dump. Yes, Tampa needed to move salary but as a stacked team, the moved a desirable contract (because of the players attached). Miller was never going to be a penny on the dollar situation

 

[Numba9]

Trading away a 1, and a 3, for a cap dump is never a home run.

Tampa's cap situation doesn't matter if the player they are trading is highly sought-after by multiple teams; this is common sense, not sure why you think differently here.

 

[bandwagonesque]

Except that doesn’t change the fact that full price was paid for a cap dump.

You're using a generic term for Miller that you're well aware doesn't describe him very well because it suits your argument. Various excellent Toronto players may soon be "cap dumps" and will return more than a 1st and a 3rd.

 

[vanuck]

And now that "cap dump" is our 3rd or 4th most valuable asset in the organization. If we used this upcoming draft to determine his worth I wouldn't trade him for anything less than a top 5 pick, doubling his orginal cost value. Emotions are high because the trade could have turned into a disaster and sealed Bennings fate but the complete opposite happened and he hit the jackpot. So it sucks in that sense. I get it.

Wow. Miller is not worth a top 5 pick, no matter how great you think this trade may be.