Yeah, I'm not saying he literally hid injuries from the Ferguson fight through his next two. I think in hindsight it's clear that there is a relationship between the injuries in the Ferguson fight and the timing of Cowboys recent resume, that rendered Cerrones durability meter predictably unfit for a competitive fight at this juncture.
Gaethje is a volatile, wobbly little dude, just discovering the power of eyesight. I can see taking that fight after enduring the Ferguson fight. But realistically, you can't then gloss over what the result of that test run was. And again, the last time Cerrone was in that very same resulting situation, jumping back in after 2 big losses, he lost spectacularly in the 1st rd, and the UFC PR machine was able to capitalize.
I guess I don't understand the point of bringing up his orbital from the Ferguson fight. Nothing was broken and he wasn't KO'ed. He took damage, for sure, but I think it looked a lot worse than it was. Funny enough, blowing his nose probably saved him from taking serious damage as Tony was really starting to pour it on.
With Gaethje, Cowboy took a lot of shots in that fight before Gaethje finally dropped him. I'm not sure how you can say he was compromised from the Ferguson fight when he was able to absorb that much damage. He wasn't KO'ed in that fight either (not arguing it was a bad stoppage, just that he wasn't unconscious). Gaethje letting up enough to let the ref step in saved him from serious damage.
Then onto Conor, he took a possible knee to the head, however many shoulders to the face, a kick to the jaw, a left hand, and a few more shots on the ground. And once again, it wasn't a complete KO. My point being, it still took a lot of damage to drop him, so it's not like he was some severely compromised fighter who was barely holding himself together. He just got his ass kicked by a better fighter.
As you say, Conor has been out for a long time. I don't have any sympathy for that fact, but objectively it was a quality performance, if I can't concede that it's a quality win. I would even ante Nate's performance against Pettis along with that, and say that Nate was lucky that Pettis is so past it, in order for Nate to have a winnable fight considering his level of rust. I was impressed that Nate got through it; ecstatic in all reality. I don't think I'd call it a quality win though.
I don't have have sympathy for Conor being off, but when you lose or are out for a while, you're supposed to move down the queue a little bit. For Conor, it was both. The problem will be if he then gets to jump the queue in front of him based on that win. That I would have a problem with.
I will strongly disagree that Cerrone is anywhere near top 5 LW. There's a couple fringe imposters in the top 15 that Cerrone could conceivably still take out, and Barboza is still there, which is imo Cowboys highest ranking victory ever. But worldwide it's going to be a long list of people that you would have to favor in a fight at 155 v Cerrone. Lee vs Cerrone is a cool fight in theory, but dear god, that's not worth it. The Barboza rematch, is well deserved by Barboza, what he's been through. Still don't need to see it.
I don't see how. Look at the guys Cowboy has lost to.
Conor - former 2x champ
Gaethje - if it wasn't for Conor, would surely be fighting for the title in his next fight.
Ferguson - former interim champ, fighting for the title next.
Leon Edwards - one win away from fighting for the title
Till - was a soon-to-be title challenger (and it was basically a MW fighting a LW at WW)
Lawler - former champ
Masvial - should be fighting for the title next
RDA (x2) - was the soon-to-be champ and then as champ.
Pettis - was the soon-to-be champ
Nate - soon-to-be title challenger
Henderson (x2) - both for a WEC belt
Varner - for the WEC belt
Those were all the best of the best guys at the time he fought them. The guys below him in the top 15 have a long way to go to prove they are on that level. Lee is a tough fight for anyone (in theory anyway), but I wouldn't say he for sure beats Cowboy. MMA math doesn't work, but he lost to Raging Al twice. So it's not like he's some unbeatable phenom (no pun intended). Cowboy has already beat Raging Al, Barboza, Oliviera, and Hernandez. The rest might not be easy fights either, but this has happened a lot in Cowboy's career. He goes on a run, loses to the elite guys, takes a step back in competition, goes on a run...
Anybody below him in the rankings I'd put the odds at worst as a pick 'em for Cowboy except for maaaaaaybe Lee and maaaaaaybe Islam. I don't really know a lot about Islam, but everyone's hyping him up as the next Khabib. If he is, sure, he'd beat Cowboy, but Cowboy has derailed some hype trains in his day, too.
Thanks for circling back in the conversation for me. Always fun to talk fighting, and am looking forward to some new results this weekend!
Likewise. It can be hard to find reasonable discussion about MMA, so much appreciated.