GDT: UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy

[pistolpete11]

Well the only reason blowing your nose would be a problem is if there is interior structural damage in the area of the sinus cavity.

I'm not a doctor, but I'm like 99.9999% sure that's not true. It's something to do with breaking blood vessels in the tissue around your eyes from getting punched in the face. When you blow your nose, it increases the blood pressure, the blood vessels are broken so they can't contain the blood, and it swells up. Fighters know not to blow their nose during a fight and it's not because they all have structural damage.

Also, again, if there was structural damage, a doctor would catch that in their physical after the fight.

Fair enough point. But it also implies that Cowboys chin and durability is at this point in the realm of Vick or "2019, post Khabib and Lee Barboza", and not the likes of Palomino, or Alvarez or even Michael Johnson. You also saw an experienced, veteran fighter throw caution to the wind like a compromised fighter, mere minutes into the fight. Gaethje is new to being an efficient, powerful finisher. His m.o. involves testing durability as his main focus.

Not even close. Gaethje landed 7 shots against Vick and he was completely KO'ed, stiff as a board. Gaethje landed 40 shots against Cowboy, it was a TKO, and Cowboy popped right up to argue with the ref (again, it was a good stoppage, but just pointing out that Cowboy wasn't completely KO'ed). He doesn't have a Nate Diaz chin and that was one of the reasons I picked Conor to beat him, but you're acting like a stiff wind would KO him. It's just not true. He was taking a lot of damage in all 3 of those fights.

I don't think throwing caution to the wind is a sign of a compromised fighter, either. Cowboy has often not been the smartest fighter and instead opted to 'give the fans what they want'. Going up against a guy like Gaethje where the fans expect it to be rock 'em, sock 'em robots, he gave the fans what they wanted.

The knees to the temple were sweet. The effect the shoulder strikes had to the structural interior of Cowboys face, the depths the shorts grab took Cowboy, and his inability to maintain any semblance of defense in the aftermath of those things, does not speak to me as being a fighter exhibiting durability and resilience on his way to being edged out in a technical exchange. To me those details are more consistent with a more cynical view of the matchup.

Again, I don't think that's a sign of a compromised fighter. He took a knee to the head and clinched up to try to recover and slow it down. I'm sure he wasn't expecting the shoulder strikes to be that effective because we've never seen them used that effectively, and then it was just too late. He was overwhelmed.

Also, Cowboy has been known to freeze up in big fights and be a slow starter. I think it just happened again.

Right, 2014 was a great year for him, but the resume of wins is less impressive than the resume of losses you referenced. And 155 is naturally an incredibly deep division, and the top 15 has been stagnant and inflated on account of Khabib and Conor.

I agree he doesn't have a long list of wins against elite guys, but my point is that his losses are only to the elite. He loses to the elite guys and beats everybody else. There's no evidence at this point that that is ready to change. It will happen one day, but it's premature to say it is now because he's lost 3 in a row to elite guys.

Cowboy hasn't been functioning as an elite fighter at that weight class except for 2014. So top 5 overall in this day and age isn't close imo. Iaquinta, Felder, Hooker, Barboza, sure Cerrone on his best night in the future could hang maybe, but that ground is shifting away from all of those guys. Maybe 1 of Felder/Hooker is knocking on the door of the elites, but the loser of that fight will be a ways away from contention.

Dude, he convincingly beat Raging Al 9 months ago. But now he needs to be on his best night to maybe hang with him?

You are right too, as far as worldwide rankings go, I guess it wouldn't be irresponsible for Cowboy to continue to do his thing against a lot of those guys. But the real threat is the 60-120 ranked or unknown 20 somethings imo. Currently tapology has Cowboy as the 83rd ranked Lightweight. To your point the guys in the 10-20-40 range, Cowboy has maybe already beaten or would at least be even odds with the other fighters in their late 30's. But to my point there are good fights for Cowboy where I would favor the prospect around his ranking at 83.

What!?!? No, dude, no. No. No no no no no no no. No. That's absolute horseshit.

First of all, they have him ranked as the #37 best pound for pound fighter but #85 best LW? How does that make sense?

Second of all, he beat their #7 (Raging Al), #8 (Barboza), #9 (Oliviera), #14 (Hernandez), #21 (Jim Miller), #33 (Makdessi), and #34 (Henderson) ranked LW's. Probably more but I was just going off the top of my head and stopped at#50. (I guess they also call Alvarez a WW now?) How does #85 beat so many of the top 50? I don't know how they come up with these rankings, but doesn't something seem off about that?

Lastly, look at some the guys they have ranked ahead of him. There's a number of these guys that I don't know. I assume some are in other organizations, but until you're doing in the UFC, who cares. They are the minor leagues. Then there are some solid-to-OK-to-way-over-the-hill vets like Jim Miller, Vannata, Dober, Davi, Guida, etc. but they are absolutely not better than Cowboy. I mean so many of these guys aren't good enough to even be in the position to fight guys like Conor, Gaethje, or Tony.


You want him to fight some 20-something's? You mean like 26 year old Alex Hernandez who was 10-1 and riding an 8 fight win streak? Well, almost exactly a year ago, Cowboy absolutely throttled him.


Look, there are legit criticisms of Cowboy. He can't beat the elite guys, he doesn't show up in big fights, he's a slow starter, he doesn't always fight smart, etc. But he is absolutely a top LW. I hate labeling guys as gatekeepers, but that's kind of what Cowboy is. A gatekeeper to the elite.

 

[m9]

Tapology is great for tracking upcoming fights and seeing the overall landscape of divisions but their rankings have some issues. Even still, pointing to an obvious mistake or glitch in their ranking like Cowboy's current ranking as some of statement of fact is downright embarrassing.

 

[m9]

In terms of Cowboy's injuries, if he actually had a bad orbital or sinus injury he wouldn't have been able to fight after 3 months v Gaethje. I've actually had those injuries and you basically can't have anything touch your face for around 3 months or you risk further damage, much less sparring and then getting in a fight within that timeframe.

Dan Hooker after his loss/broken orbital to Barboza couldn't fight again for 7 months which is a much more realistic timeline.

 

[pistolpete11]

Tapology is great for tracking upcoming fights and seeing the overall landscape of divisions but their rankings have some issues. Even still, pointing to an obvious mistake or glitch in their ranking like Cowboy's current ranking as some of statement of fact is downright embarrassing.

My favorite part of Tapology is the tracking of cancelled bouts and the reason for it. I also like being able to see what the odds were at the time of the fight. They were the best at tracking PPV buys back when the UFC released those numbers, too.

I just discovered that they link to UFC Stats for each fight, which it cool. UFC Stats is the best for round by round stats and the judge's scorecards in my experience. I just wish they'd break down the scorecards by round.

 

[m9]

My favorite part of Tapology is the tracking of cancelled bouts and the reason for it. I also like being able to see what the odds were at the time of the fight. They were the best at tracking PPV buys back when the UFC released those numbers, too.

I just discovered that they link to UFC Stats for each fight, which it cool. UFC Stats is the best for round by round stats and the judge's scorecards in my experience. I just wish they'd break down the scorecards by round.

Have you checked out MMAdecisions? It's great for seeing not only the judging scores, but also how certain media members scored the fight.

 

[lebdafor norris]

Not a big fan of how Tapology tends to underrated those Bellator fighters however, I mean Douglas Lima being ranked number 15 in the WW rankings behind fighters like Luque, Gilbert Burns and Nate Diaz is just horrible. But the most blatant offence is how current Bellator FW and LW champ, Patricio "Pitbull" is ranked number 26 in their FW rankings after 3 successful title defences of his FW belt.

 

[pistolpete11]

Have you checked out MMAdecisions? It's great for seeing not only the judging scores, but also how certain media members scored the fight.

No, cool, thanks. I wish all of this stuff was put into one site, but better than nothing I guess.

I was especially curious because I went down the rabbit hole with Cowboy once I found out he's the 85th ranked LW in the world. Two of the judges in Cowboy-Ragin Al fight gave Cowboy a 10-8 round. Now I know thanks to MMADecisions, one gave him the 3rd round 10-8 and the other gave him the 4th as 10-8. It was also a little different than I remember. I thought Al won the 1st and then Cowboy steamrolled him. But all 3 judges gave the first to Cowboy and 2nd to Al.

 

[JayfromNB1219]

Cerrone should take his money and retire.

First guy I’ve ever seen get the **** beat out of him by his opponent’s shoulder.

Sonnen had a good piece about that shoulder throw, how many guys can really break a dudes nose with a shoulder shrug? I would imagine it just completely threw Cerrone off allowing Connor to finish him no problem...and all you haters screaming FIX!!! y'all need to take a deep breath...Cerrone has never thrown a fight in his life...too much pride to do something like that, Connor is a better fighter than an aged Donald Cerrone, Cerrone in his prime would have been a completely different beast for Connor...it is what it is...Masvidal or Gaethje next while he waits for the loser of Khabib v Tony Ferguson (both dudes will kill him I think)

 

[chicagoskycam]

Sonnen had a good piece about that shoulder throw, how many guys can really break a dudes nose with a shoulder shrug? I would imagine it just completely threw Cerrone off allowing Connor to finish him no problem...and all you haters screaming FIX!!! y'all need to take a deep breath...Cerrone has never thrown a fight in his life...too much pride to do something like that, Connor is a better fighter than an aged Donald Cerrone, Cerrone in his prime would have been a completely different beast for Connor...it is what it is...Masvidal or Gaethje next while he waits for the loser of Khabib v Tony Ferguson (both dudes will kill him I think)

It wasn't even just the shoulder throw, Cerrone got a good jolt from Connor's leg right before that. I think he was trying to right himself in the clinch and bam, broken nose. It's all over.

Anyone calling out Cowboy for giving up or taking a dive is a dipshit, this includes ESPN's very own Steven A..

So what happens next, I'm not a fan of Connor waiting to fight Khabib assuming Khabib even wins. Connor should not be next line for that belt and it's really completely dismissing Tony F. A healthy Tony F is going to cause some problems for Khabib, I'm looking forward to it.

Gaethje deserves it more. Jorge should fight Usman and Connor should get another tune up.

 

[CDJ]

Now would probably be the time to do Conor vs Nate 3. Maybe you have him fight Poirier again. Not much for him to do other than wait around until the fall for Khabib

 

[chicagoskycam]

Now would probably be the time to do Conor vs Nate 3. Maybe you have him fight Poirier again. Not much for him to do other than wait around until the fall for Khabib

He's got to fight again before Fall, just silly to have him off after taking zero damage most of the year. My bet is someone backs out of one the events in April - May, he fills in. Jorge vs. Connor would be an amazing build-up, the press conferences would be so entertaining.

 

[CDJ]

He's got to fight again before Fall, just silly to have him off after taking zero damage most of the year. My bet is someone backs out of one the events in April - May, he fills in. Jorge vs. Connor would be an amazing build-up, the press conferences would be so entertaining.

jorge is fighting usman in July, per Dana

Agreed on getting him another fight though. Although his goal is to fight 3 times this year and he can probably do September/December as his next two (if he leaves the title fight in September without a smashed face, which is no guarantee against Khabib or Tony)

 

[BGDDYKWL]

It's all about risk/reward for the UFC when it comes to Conor. Diaz (at 170) will be the fight. Gaethje beating him crushes his stock and it's not even a big fight. Losing to Nate at 170 sets up a very easy narrative that 155 is where he needs to be and he slides right back in as a top contender.

 

[Neutrinos]

Now would probably be the time to do Conor vs Nate 3. Maybe you have him fight Poirier again. Not much for him to do other than wait around until the fall for Khabib

Now would be the time to do Gaethje vs McGregor

You can set that fight up in May, and have the victor take on the winner of Khabib vs Ferguson in the fall

 

[Peter Griffin]

Now would be the time to do Gaethje vs McGregor

You can set that fight up in May, and have the victor take on the winner of Khabib vs Ferguson in the fall

And if Gaethje beats Conor you lose the opportunity for Conor/Khabib 2. ZERO chance that Conor's next fight is Gaethje. Dana isn't taking that unnecessary risk with his cash cow.

 

[Neutrinos]

And if Gaethje beats Conor you lose the opportunity for Conor/Khabib 2. ZERO chance that Conor's next fight is Gaethje. Dana isn't taking that unnecessary risk with his cash cow.

But having McGregor sit on the sidelines waiting for Khabib is costing the UFC money

 

[Peter Griffin]

But having McGregor sit on the sidelines waiting for Khabib is costing the UFC money

How? McGregor’s not being paid unless he’s fighting and if you’re argument is that if he’s not fighting the UFC isn’t making money, well that hasn’t stopped them in the past from not having him fight for long stretches.

If they want to make a fight in the near future, the Nate Diaz trilogy makes a lot more sense. As BGDDYKWL stated above, there’s a lot less for Conor/UFC to lose in that fight.

 

[Neutrinos]

How? McGregor’s not being paid unless he’s fighting and if you’re argument is that if he’s not fighting the UFC isn’t making money, well that hasn’t stopped them in the past from not having him fight for long stretches.

If they want to make a fight in the near future, the Nate Diaz trilogy makes a lot more sense. As BGDDYKWL stated above, there’s a lot less for Conor/UFC to lose in that fight.

Let's say McGregor vs Gaethje would bring in 100 million for the UFC, whereas McGregor vs Khabib would bring in 150 million

The UFC can make 100 million May with McGregor vs Gaethje

And then if McGregor loses, they can make another 100+ million in the fall with McGregor vs Diaz

That brings in more money for the UFC than simply waiting until the fall to make McGregor vs Khabib

 

[Peter Griffin]

Let's say McGregor vs Gaethje would bring in 100 million for the UFC, whereas McGregor vs Khabib would bring in 150 million

The UFC can make 100 million May with McGregor vs Gaethje

And then if McGregor loses, they can make another 100+ million in the fall with McGregor vs Diaz

That brings in more money for the UFC than simply waiting until the fall to make McGregor vs Khabib

Or they could do McGregor/Diaz first like many have suggested and I did in the post you quoted...

The thing is though, Dana wants Conor’s next fight to be against the winner of Khabib/Tony. That tells you all you need to know there.

 

[Neutrinos]

Or they could do McGregor/Diaz first like many have suggested and I did in the post you quoted...

The thing is though, Dana wants Conor’s next fight to be against the winner of Khabib/Tony. That tells you all you need to know there.

You still run the risk of Diaz beating McGregor, which then prevents a rematch between McGregor and Khabib

At least if Gaethje beats McGregor, the UFC has a new star in Gaethje

If Diaz beats McGregor, so what?

 

[Peter Griffin]

You still run the risk of Diaz beating McGregor, which then prevents a rematch between McGregor and Khabib

I disagree. The fight would take place at 170. They can spin it as Conor fighting above his weight class like they did his first loss to Nate. He loses at 155 to Gaethje and the Khabib rematch loses a lot of momentum and Gaethje/Khabib isn’t bringing in nearly as many viewers(personally I’d love to see it). I also think Conor losing to Nate again is less likely than him losing to Gaethje but maybe that’s just me.

But in any case, the guy that runs the show and is all about $$$$ would apparently rather have Conor sit and wait than have him fight someone else, namely Gaethje, first. What does that tell you?

 

[Neutrinos]

I disagree. The fight would take place at 170. They can spin it as Conor fighting above his weight class like they did his first loss to Nate. He loses at 155 to Gaethje and the Khabib rematch loses a lot of momentum and Gaethje/Khabib isn’t bringing in nearly as many viewers(personally I’d love to see it). I also think Conor losing to Nate again is less likely than him losing to Gaethje but maybe that’s just me.

But in any case, the guy that runs the show and is all about $$$$ would apparently rather have Conor sit and wait than have him fight someone else, namely Gaethje, first. What does that tell you?

If the UFC has crunched the numbers, and have determined the best course of action is to have McGregor sit and wait for Khabib, then I'm fine with that

My issue is if they're going to have McGregor fight before then, it should be against Gaethje, not Diaz

 

[Peter Griffin]

My issue is if they're going to have McGregor fight before then, it should be against Gaethje, not Diaz

I agree it should be, but it won’t be. If the UFC was going to put McGregor/Gaethje together it would’ve been the fight that headlined UFC 246. But it wasn’t because the UFC rightfully sees Garthje as a legit threat to McGregor rematching Khabib and they don’t want to jeopardize that. McGregor will either fight at 170 next or against the winner of Khabib/Tony.

 

[pistolpete11]

Unfortunately, I don't think we will hear anything about Conor until after Khabib-Tony in April. I think the UFC will push for Conor to fight the winner, but it really depends on how that fight goes. I think it's not only possible but likely that they end up in a 5 round war. Both guys are too good on the ground to get submitted easily and neither are knockout artists. So it's going to be a long, rough fight and I wouldn't bet on either of them coming out of that fight ready to fight in 3-4 months. If the winner does indeed have an injury and can't fight until December or something, then I think we might get Conor against Nate or Gaethje in the summer.

Edit: I also wouldn't rule out the possibility of an immediate rematch between Khabib-Tony, especially if Khabib loses due to a questionable doctor stoppage (remember, it is in NY and Tony has a knack for cutting up his opponents).

 

[Neutrinos]

Unfortunately, I don't think we will hear anything about Conor until after Khabib-Tony in April. I think the UFC will push for Conor to fight the winner, but it really depends on how that fight goes. I think it's not only possible but likely that they end up in a 5 round war. Both guys are too good on the ground to get submitted easily and neither are knockout artists. So it's going to be a long, rough fight and I wouldn't bet on either of them coming out of that fight ready to fight in 3-4 months. If the winner does indeed have an injury and can't fight until December or something, then I think we might get Conor against Nate or Gaethje in the summer.

Edit: I also wouldn't rule out the possibility of an immediate rematch between Khabib-Tony, especially if Khabib loses due to a questionable doctor stoppage (remember, it is in NY and Tony has a knack for cutting up his opponents).

If you were Ferguson, would you agree to an immediate rematch with Khabib? Or would you insist on the big payday fight with McGregor?