GDT: UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy

[m9]

If you're going by the results on paper without any context, sure. But let's be serious, the second Whitaker fight should have at least been a draw if not a win. That's more impressive to me than beating Jack Hermansson.

But the actual result should still matter, it simply has to in a sport.

 

[pistolpete11]

But the actual result should still matter, it simply has to in a sport.

I'd agree with you more if the UFC wasn't forced to use shitty judges from shitty athletic commissions.

 

[chicagoskycam]

Ha, funny pic with Cowboy's Grandma

 

[BGDDYKWL]

Could you elaborate on what leads you to believe this? I find it incomprehensible. This was Cowboys 3rd fight in half a year. He's been spending about as much time recovering from high level TKO's as you would usually take just to build a fight camp. How is the 3rd time he gets tko'd in that span more impressive than the 2nd?

Because of how it was done. Gaethje finished Cerrone late in the first if memory serves. Conor absolutely throttled him, and not just with landing one shot on the button, but with a knee (possibly two), the shoulder, a head kick, then his thunderous left. That looked like a pro fighting a child. Not to mention their other common opponents. Conor absolutely dominated Poirier and Alvarez, both of which finished Gaethje.

I agree with the first 2 points, but Gaethje is more deserving of the title shot than Conor at this point. This was Conor's first win in 3 years. Gaethje is coming off 3 first round KO's in a year and half. Doesn't mean Gaethje would beat Conor or Khabib or anybody else (MMA math doesn't work anyway), but based on their resumes, Gaethje should be next. As @m9 mentioned too, Gaethje is maybe the most interesting fight for Khabib from a style point of view being a D1 wrestler himself.

I agree from the stylistic perspective (although I think Khabib walks right through him), but does having a style better suited to beat the champ factor into who's more deserving? It's an interesting discussion. If I'm Gaethje I say I've been more active, I have a style better suited to beat him, and you already got your shot. If I'm Conor I say I've fared MUCH better against our common opponents, thus I'm better/more deserving.

The right thing for the sport would be to have Conor-Gaethje fight. It would have been the right fight instead of Cowboy, too, but we know why Conor picked Cowboy. Decide it in the cage. Timing-wise it would be perfect, too. The problem is that Conor vs. Khabib or Conor vs. Masvidal would just make everyone too much money.

I agree, but we both know it's at the very least highly unlikely. The UFC will want to match Conor up with whoever hurts his stock the least, should he happen to lose. That's obviously Usman/Masvidal at 170, followed by Nate at 170. I haven't even seen this mentioned but the fight that hurts his stock the least that would also be the biggest draw is him vs GSP at 170.

 

[pistolpete11]

I agree from the stylistic perspective (although I think Khabib walks right through him), but does having a style better suited to beat the champ factor into who's more deserving? It's an interesting discussion. If I'm Gaethje I say I've been more active, I have a style better suited to beat him, and you already got your shot. If I'm Conor I say I've fared MUCH better against our common opponents, thus I'm better/more deserving.

Having an interesting style match up helps sell fights IMO because having doubt on who's going to win is what gets people talking before the fight and generates that buzz. Right now, I don't think there is much doubt in a Khabib-Conor rematch. Nothing trumps Conor being Conor when it comes to generating buzz, so maybe that's enough to get him the fight anyway, but from an actual fight perspective, I'd rather see Khabib-Gaethje.

MMA math doesn't work, so I don't think their common opponents should factor in. Eddie and Poirier both stood when they fought Conor and Gaethje. Khabib wouldn't. At least he wouldn't want to. If Gaethje can force him to, then it's advantage Gaethje. Even if common opponents did factor in, there's got to be a time limit on that right? I mean Conor fought Alvarez 3 years ago and Poirier 6 years ago and it was at 145.

I think assuming Khabib walks through Gaethje is a pretty bold prediction. I'm not saying I'd pick Gaethje, but I think his wrestling (or in this case, anti-wrestling) would give Khabib problems. Who knows, though? We haven't seen Gaethje actually have to use his wrestling in the UFC, so maybe I'm putting too much stock into his wrestling credentials.

I agree, but we both know it's at the very least highly unlikely. The UFC will want to match Conor up with whoever hurts his stock the least, should he happen to lose. That's obviously Usman/Masvidal at 170, followed by Nate at 170. I haven't even seen this mentioned but the fight that hurts his stock the least that would also be the biggest draw is him vs GSP at 170.

I agree. Masvidal, Usman, Nate (at 170), and GSP would all have the built in excuse "I'm not a true WW". However, winning is still better than losing. I'd give him about a 0% chances of beating GSP or Usman. I wouldn't favor him beating Masvidal, but he has a chance, it would be massive, and he has that built in excuse. That, along with the timing, is why I think Masvidal should be next. (Edit: not 'should', 'will' be next. Gaethje 'should' be next).

Nate is the same with Masvidal, but with betters odds of Conor winning, but I think that trilogy sells no matter what happens. So I think he should strike while the iron is hot with Masvidal.

 

[I am not exposed]

Having an interesting style match up helps sell fights IMO because having doubt on who's going to win is what gets people talking before the fight and generates that buzz. Right now, I don't think there is much doubt in a Khabib-Conor rematch. Nothing trumps Conor being Conor when it comes to generating buzz, so maybe that's enough to get him the fight anyway, but from an actual fight perspective, I'd rather see Khabib-Gaethje.

MMA math doesn't work, so I don't think their common opponents should factor in. Eddie and Poirier both stood when they fought Conor and Gaethje. Khabib wouldn't. At least he wouldn't want to. If Gaethje can force him to, then it's advantage Gaethje. Even if common opponents did factor in, there's got to be a time limit on that right? I mean Conor fought Alvarez 3 years ago and Poirier 6 years ago and it was at 145.

I think assuming Khabib walks through Gaethje is a pretty bold prediction. I'm not saying I'd pick Gaethje, but I think his wrestling (or in this case, anti-wrestling) would give Khabib problems. Who knows, though? We haven't seen Gaethje actually have to use his wrestling in the UFC, so maybe I'm putting too much stock into his wrestling credentials.


I agree. Masvidal, Usman, Nate (at 170), and GSP would all have the built in excuse "I'm not a true WW". However, winning is still better than losing. I'd give him about a 0% chances of beating GSP or Usman. I wouldn't favor him beating Masvidal, but he has a chance, it would be massive, and he has that built in excuse. That, along with the timing, is why I think Masvidal should be next. (Edit: not 'should', 'will' be next. Gaethje 'should' be next).

Nate is the same with Masvidal, but with betters odds of Conor winning, but I think that trilogy sells no matter what happens. So I think he should strike while the iron is hot with Masvidal.

Great post, and thank you for writing this especially!

 

[vladdy16]

Because of how it was done. Gaethje finished Cerrone late in the first if memory serves. Conor absolutely throttled him, and not just with landing one shot on the button, but with a knee (possibly two), the shoulder, a head kick, then his thunderous left. That looked like a pro fighting a child.

And none of this makes you suspicious that Cowboy entered the fight as a more diminished fighter than he did against Gaethje or Ferguson, in the months prior?

And Gaethje establishing range, using technique and discipline to decisively TKO a frustrated, blitzing kickboxer, is "just landing one shot on the button"?

But a glancing knee as an opening strike, shoulders to existing injuries in the clinch, and illegally grabbing shorts, as the decisive factors leading to a finishing sequence, it doesn't make you question the context of the headkick and finishing left at all? That looked like a non-compromised person fighting a compromised person. It's entirely disingenuous to even compare the fights imo, let alone give McGregor the edge because of.

 

[m9]

Cerrone got smashed by Gaethje & Conor, whether it's 4 minutes or 40 seconds doesn't really matter. He also was getting throttled by Ferguson as well.

All this proves is that Cerrone loses to guys better than him, and often times it's quick, ugly, or both. Trying to paint a broader picture about that is kind of missing the point. He's fought other guys coming off bad losses or quick turnarounds and been just fine.

 

[chicagoskycam]

I wouldn’t mind another tune up fight for Connor, then Jorge, then Khabib depending one how things go.

 

[LSCII]

Video: Israel Adesanya reacts to Conor McGregor's knockout – TheMacLife

Interesting to see other fighters like Izzy watching the fight and giving their reaction to it in real time.

 

[vladdy16]

Cerrone got smashed by Gaethje & Conor, whether it's 4 minutes or 40 seconds doesn't really matter. He also was getting throttled by Ferguson as well.

All this proves is that Cerrone loses to guys better than him, and often times it's quick, ugly, or both. Trying to paint a broader picture about that is kind of missing the point. He's fought other guys coming off bad losses or quick turnarounds and been just fine.

That's not true. The only other time he lost 2 in a row, he got folded by Till in quick order.

Just because you can sometimes cheat the system and jump back in against a prelim gatekeeper to erase a loss, it doesn't mean doing it at the top of the deepest division, involving fights against 2 of the most destructive fighters imaginable in Ferguson and Gaethje, is in any way advisable, or is in any way an ancillary factor for the fight that follows shortly after.

 

[m9]

That's not true. The only other time he lost 2 in a row, he got folded by Till in quick order.

Just because you can sometimes cheat the system and jump back in against a prelim gatekeeper to erase a loss, it doesn't mean doing it at the top of the deepest division, involving fights against 2 of the most destructive fighters imaginable in Ferguson and Gaethje, is in any way advisable, or is in any way an ancillary factor for the fight that follows shortly after.

To me, you've constructed a narrative in your head based on very little and are just piecing things together that may or may not be relevant. But to each their own, I'll leave it alone from here.

 

[vladdy16]

To me, you've constructed a narrative in your head based on very little and are just piecing things together that may or may not be relevant. But to each their own, I'll leave it alone from here.

Piecing things together? By mentioning his recent fight schedule? That's quite a stretch to be dismissive imo.

We all have narratives though.

Is yours that Cowboy was 100% going into the fight?

 

[BGDDYKWL]

And none of this makes you suspicious that Cowboy entered the fight as a more diminished fighter than he did against Gaethje or Ferguson, in the months prior?

And Gaethje establishing range, using technique and discipline to decisively TKO a frustrated, blitzing kickboxer, is "just landing one shot on the button"?

But a glancing knee as an opening strike, shoulders to existing injuries in the clinch, and illegally grabbing shorts, as the decisive factors leading to a finishing sequence, it doesn't make you question the context of the headkick and finishing left at all? That looked like a non-compromised person fighting a compromised person. It's entirely disingenuous to even compare the fights imo, let alone give McGregor the edge because of.

In a 6-month stretch from Perry to Iaquinta, Cerrone won 3 fights. He's an active fighter who's gone on win streaks and losing streaks. This isn't like Bisping jumping back in there with Gastelum almost immediately after getting dropped by a fairly ordinary left from GSP who isn't known for huge power.

Gaethje dominated too, my point was simply that with Conor's win it wasn't like Masvidal's knee where an argument could be made that it was somewhat flukey. In 40 seconds he showed a variety of effective techniques, and Cowboy landed nothing. That was utter dominance. Could it be that Cowboy needed more time after Tony? Couldn't have hurt, but I think what we saw was simply a case of one fighter being far superior to the other.

You have to do quite a few mental gymnastics and what-ifs (all in Cowboy's favor) to come away from watching that fight and not conclude Conor is the far superior fighter.

 

[vladdy16]

In a 6-month stretch from Perry to Iaquinta, Cerrone won 3 fights. He's an active fighter who's gone on win streaks and losing streaks. This isn't like Bisping jumping back in there with Gastelum almost immediately after getting dropped by a fairly ordinary left from GSP who isn't known for huge power.

Gaethje dominated too, my point was simply that with Conor's win it wasn't like Masvidal's knee where an argument could be made that it was somewhat flukey. In 40 seconds he showed a variety of effective techniques, and Cowboy landed nothing. That was utter dominance. Could it be that Cowboy needed more time after Tony? Couldn't have hurt, but I think what we saw was simply a case of one fighter being far superior to the other.

You have to do quite a few mental gymnastics and what-ifs (all in Cowboy's favor) to come away from watching that fight and not conclude Conor is the far superior fighter.

But that's not what I'm doing. Its pretty much the opposite of what im doing. I'm not a cowboy fan, had no interest in him winning, and my actual premise is that he had no way to even be competitive in that fight.

It takes more gymnastics to try and qualify this as a quality win, in the historical and recent contexts of 155 and 170, imo.

And again, im not just speculating. It was just proposed that Cowboy frequently has had fights on losing streaks in quick succession.

That's a myth, and thats gymnastics, because i've pointed to the fact that its only happened once before, and it was a similar result against a fighter with a similar trajectory within the company.

The 2nd round of the Ferguson fight, while being a subjective aspect in this discussion, did recently happen in plain sight. While subjectivity should be accounted for in any discussion, I think I'm being asked to go to unnescesarry lengths to prove that Cowboy didnt not sustain significant damage to his nose and orbital in that fight, when it feels like a plainly natural fact of the sport we all enjoy and follow.

We'll see what happens next. Seems like Conor let the Brooklyn boat and bmf boat sail by, and may be content to bide his time with the Diaz fight, in which case the Cowboy fight will appropriately have a neutral/lateral impact on 155 and 170.

I respect everyones interest in the fight, and would love for some real Conor fans to join the party at 155 and 170. I feel like my tone is being misconstrued maybe due to the magnitude of the fight, whereas there are plenty of other cards that have bs matchups scattered about that you can use a little historical context, anylysis and intuition to pick out, and I think my observations on those situations would flow more naturally than gymnastics.

 

[pistolpete11]

But that's not what I'm doing. Its pretty much the opposite of what im doing. I'm not a cowboy fan, had no interest in him winning, and my actual premise is that he had no way to even be competitive in that fight.

It takes more gymnastics to try and qualify this as a quality win, in the historical and recent contexts of 155 and 170, imo.

And again, im not just speculating. It was just proposed that Cowboy frequently has had fights on losing streaks in quick succession.

That's a myth, and thats gymnastics, because i've pointed to the fact that its only happened once before, and it was a similar result against a fighter with a similar trajectory within the company.

The 2nd round of the Ferguson fight, while being a subjective aspect in this discussion, did recently happen in plain sight. While subjectivity should be accounted for in any discussion, I think I'm being asked to go to unnescesarry lengths to prove that Cowboy didnt not sustain significant damage to his nose and orbital in that fight, when it feels like a plainly natural fact of the sport we all enjoy and follow.

We'll see what happens next. Seems like Conor let the Brooklyn boat and bmf boat sail by, and may be content to bide his time with the Diaz fight, in which case the Cowboy fight will appropriately have a neutral/lateral impact on 155 and 170.

I respect everyones interest in the fight, and would love for some real Conor fans to join the party at 155 and 170. I feel like my tone is being misconstrued maybe due to the magnitude of the fight, whereas there are plenty of other cards that have bs matchups scattered about that you can use a little historical context, anylysis and intuition to pick out, and I think my observations on those situations would flow more naturally than gymnastics.

Nah, man. They get medical suspensions after fights and have to get cleared by doctors before they can fight again. Some stuff the fighter might be able to cover up, but you can't cover up a broken orbital or nose. It's way too big of a liability if the doctors/UFC try to cover something like that up, too. Also, that was over 6 months ago and they would have had to cover it up again after the Gaethje fight. I think it's much more likely that he just got his ass kicked and those shoulder strikes were that effective.

If you're talking about brain damage, in general, I think there is something to that. They do have some tests they have to pass, but I think a lot of guys don't take long enough to let their brains heal. Cowboy is especially bad at that, but he also took a lot of hard shots in that fight and it was a TKO, so it's not like Conor just touched him and he was out cold.

I don't think you're giving Cowboy or Conor enough credit, though. The only guys that beat Cowboy are the elite guys. I mean, we all get that it was a fight Conor was supposed to win, but to do it in the way he did was still impressive. It wasn't impressive enough for him to get the title shot IMO, and I think there will be plenty of outrage if he does, but Cowboy's still a top 5 LW that Conor smashed in less than a minute. For a guy who's last win was 3 years ago and was coming off a loss and a long lay off, that's a quality win.

 

[vladdy16]

Nah, man. They get medical suspensions after fights and have to get cleared by doctors before they can fight again. Some stuff the fighter might be able to cover up, but you can't cover up a broken orbital or nose. It's way too big of a liability if the doctors/UFC try to cover something like that up, too. Also, that was over 6 months ago and they would have had to cover it up again after the Gaethje fight. I think it's much more likely that he just got his ass kicked and those shoulder strikes were that effective.

If you're talking about brain damage, in general, I think there is something to that. They do have some tests they have to pass, but I think a lot of guys don't take long enough to let their brains heal. Cowboy is especially bad at that, but he also took a lot of hard shots in that fight and it was a TKO, so it's not like Conor just touched him and he was out cold.

I don't think you're giving Cowboy or Conor enough credit, though. The only guys that beat Cowboy are the elite guys. I mean, we all get that it was a fight Conor was supposed to win, but to do it in the way he did was still was impressive. It wasn't impressive enough for him to get the title shot IMO, and I think there will be plenty of outrage if he does, but Cowboy's still a top 5 LW that Conor smashed in less than a minute. For a guy who's last win was 3 years ago and was coming off a loss and a long lay off, that's a quality win.

Yeah, I'm not saying he literally hid injuries from the Ferguson fight through his next two. I think in hindsight it's clear that there is a relationship between the injuries in the Ferguson fight and the timing of Cowboys recent resume, that rendered Cerrones durability meter predictably unfit for a competitive fight at this juncture.

Gaethje is a volatile, wobbly little dude, just discovering the power of eyesight. I can see taking that fight after enduring the Ferguson fight. But realistically, you can't then gloss over what the result of that test run was. And again, the last time Cerrone was in that very same resulting situation, jumping back in after 2 big losses, he lost spectacularly in the 1st rd, and the UFC PR machine was able to capitalize.

As you say, Conor has been out for a long time. I don't have any sympathy for that fact, but objectively it was a quality performance, if I can't concede that it's a quality win. I would even ante Nate's performance against Pettis along with that, and say that Nate was lucky that Pettis is so past it, in order for Nate to have a winnable fight considering his level of rust. I was impressed that Nate got through it; ecstatic in all reality. I don't think I'd call it a quality win though.

I will strongly disagree that Cerrone is anywhere near top 5 LW. There's a couple fringe imposters in the top 15 that Cerrone could conceivably still take out, and Barboza is still there, which is imo Cowboys highest ranking victory ever. But worldwide it's going to be a long list of people that you would have to favor in a fight at 155 v Cerrone. Lee vs Cerrone is a cool fight in theory, but dear god, that's not worth it. The Barboza rematch, is well deserved by Barboza, what he's been through. Still don't need to see it.

Thanks for circling back in the conversation for me. Always fun to talk fighting, and am looking forward to some new results this weekend!

 

[pistolpete11]

Yeah, I'm not saying he literally hid injuries from the Ferguson fight through his next two. I think in hindsight it's clear that there is a relationship between the injuries in the Ferguson fight and the timing of Cowboys recent resume, that rendered Cerrones durability meter predictably unfit for a competitive fight at this juncture.

Gaethje is a volatile, wobbly little dude, just discovering the power of eyesight. I can see taking that fight after enduring the Ferguson fight. But realistically, you can't then gloss over what the result of that test run was. And again, the last time Cerrone was in that very same resulting situation, jumping back in after 2 big losses, he lost spectacularly in the 1st rd, and the UFC PR machine was able to capitalize.

I guess I don't understand the point of bringing up his orbital from the Ferguson fight. Nothing was broken and he wasn't KO'ed. He took damage, for sure, but I think it looked a lot worse than it was. Funny enough, blowing his nose probably saved him from taking serious damage as Tony was really starting to pour it on.

With Gaethje, Cowboy took a lot of shots in that fight before Gaethje finally dropped him. I'm not sure how you can say he was compromised from the Ferguson fight when he was able to absorb that much damage. He wasn't KO'ed in that fight either (not arguing it was a bad stoppage, just that he wasn't unconscious). Gaethje letting up enough to let the ref step in saved him from serious damage.

Then onto Conor, he took a possible knee to the head, however many shoulders to the face, a kick to the jaw, a left hand, and a few more shots on the ground. And once again, it wasn't a complete KO. My point being, it still took a lot of damage to drop him, so it's not like he was some severely compromised fighter who was barely holding himself together. He just got his ass kicked by a better fighter.

As you say, Conor has been out for a long time. I don't have any sympathy for that fact, but objectively it was a quality performance, if I can't concede that it's a quality win. I would even ante Nate's performance against Pettis along with that, and say that Nate was lucky that Pettis is so past it, in order for Nate to have a winnable fight considering his level of rust. I was impressed that Nate got through it; ecstatic in all reality. I don't think I'd call it a quality win though.

I don't have have sympathy for Conor being off, but when you lose or are out for a while, you're supposed to move down the queue a little bit. For Conor, it was both. The problem will be if he then gets to jump the queue in front of him based on that win. That I would have a problem with.

I will strongly disagree that Cerrone is anywhere near top 5 LW. There's a couple fringe imposters in the top 15 that Cerrone could conceivably still take out, and Barboza is still there, which is imo Cowboys highest ranking victory ever. But worldwide it's going to be a long list of people that you would have to favor in a fight at 155 v Cerrone. Lee vs Cerrone is a cool fight in theory, but dear god, that's not worth it. The Barboza rematch, is well deserved by Barboza, what he's been through. Still don't need to see it.

I don't see how. Look at the guys Cowboy has lost to.

Conor - former 2x champ
Gaethje - if it wasn't for Conor, would surely be fighting for the title in his next fight.
Ferguson - former interim champ, fighting for the title next.
Leon Edwards - one win away from fighting for the title
Till - was a soon-to-be title challenger (and it was basically a MW fighting a LW at WW)
Lawler - former champ
Masvial - should be fighting for the title next
RDA (x2) - was the soon-to-be champ and then as champ.
Pettis - was the soon-to-be champ
Nate - soon-to-be title challenger
Henderson (x2) - both for a WEC belt
Varner - for the WEC belt

Those were all the best of the best guys at the time he fought them. The guys below him in the top 15 have a long way to go to prove they are on that level. Lee is a tough fight for anyone (in theory anyway), but I wouldn't say he for sure beats Cowboy. MMA math doesn't work, but he lost to Raging Al twice. So it's not like he's some unbeatable phenom (no pun intended). Cowboy has already beat Raging Al, Barboza, Oliviera, and Hernandez. The rest might not be easy fights either, but this has happened a lot in Cowboy's career. He goes on a run, loses to the elite guys, takes a step back in competition, goes on a run...

Anybody below him in the rankings I'd put the odds at worst as a pick 'em for Cowboy except for maaaaaaybe Lee and maaaaaaybe Islam. I don't really know a lot about Islam, but everyone's hyping him up as the next Khabib. If he is, sure, he'd beat Cowboy, but Cowboy has derailed some hype trains in his day, too.

Thanks for circling back in the conversation for me. Always fun to talk fighting, and am looking forward to some new results this weekend!

Likewise. It can be hard to find reasonable discussion about MMA, so much appreciated.

 

[CDJ]

Give me cowboy vs Gregor Gillespie next. Give them both some time to recover and let them get after it this summer

 

[pistolpete11]

Give me cowboy vs Gregor Gillespie next. Give them both some time to recover and let them get after it this summer

It makes sense in terms of the rankings and where each of them are, but I don't like it for Gregor. Oh? You were viciously KO'ed by a head kick in your last fight? Well here you go. Fight the guy with the most head kick KO's in UFC history. I also wouldn't mind Cowboy vs. probably the loser of Felder-Hooker. The winner should probably get Poirier or something like that.

As I've said before, what I'd like to see is Nate-Cowboy 2. I think it's a fun fight and both guys are kind of at the same point in their careers. Like, they are both top 10 fighters, neither are likely to be fighting for titles again, and should be looking to make as much money as they can by fighting big names.

 

[CDJ]

Nate vs Cowboy 2 would be terrific

 

[vladdy16]

I guess I don't understand the point of bringing up his orbital from the Ferguson fight. Nothing was broken and he wasn't KO'ed. He took damage, for sure, but I think it looked a lot worse than it was. Funny enough, blowing his nose probably saved him from taking serious damage as Tony was really starting to pour it on.

Well the only reason blowing your nose would be a problem is if there is interior structural damage in the area of the sinus cavity. I think round 2 was serious damage, and feel like that kind of damage to the bones around the holes in your skull would have a tendency to be "tempermental" over a half year window, though that's complete conjecture and a Dr. agreeing with me wouldn't really be relevant for the landscape of pro fighting.

I'd be much more interested in a break down of the shoulder strikes as a measure of whether or not Cerrone was compromised, or if it was a unique use of force on the part of McGregor.

With Gaethje, Cowboy took a lot of shots in that fight before Gaethje finally dropped him. I'm not sure how you can say he was compromised from the Ferguson fight when he was able to absorb that much damage. He wasn't KO'ed in that fight either (not arguing it was a bad stoppage, just that he wasn't unconscious). Gaethje letting up enough to let the ref step in saved him from serious damage.

Fair enough point. But it also implies that Cowboys chin and durability is at this point in the realm of Vick or "2019, post Khabib and Lee Barboza", and not the likes of Palomino, or Alvarez or even Michael Johnson. You also saw an experienced, veteran fighter throw caution to the wind like a compromised fighter, mere minutes into the fight. Gaethje is new to being an efficient, powerful finisher. His m.o. involves testing durability as his main focus.

Then onto Conor, he took a possible knee to the head, however many shoulders to the face, a kick to the jaw, a left hand, and a few more shots on the ground. And once again, it wasn't a complete KO. My point being, it still took a lot of damage to drop him, so it's not like he was some severely compromised fighter who was barely holding himself together. He just got his ass kicked by a better fighter.

The knees to the temple were sweet. The effect the shoulder strikes had to the structural interior of Cowboys face, the depths the shorts grab took Cowboy, and his inability to maintain any semblance of defense in the aftermath of those things, does not speak to me as being a fighter exhibiting durability and resilience on his way to being edged out in a technical exchange. To me those details are more consistent with a more cynical view of the matchup.

I don't have have sympathy for Conor being off, but when you lose or are out for a while, you're supposed to move down the queue a little bit. For Conor, it was both. The problem will be if he then gets to jump the queue in front of him based on that win. That I would have a problem with.

Yep yep. Fingers crossed imo, for either Nate/Conor 3 or Nate/Dustin, Conor/Justin.

I don't see how. Look at the guys Cowboy has lost to.

Conor - former 2x champ
Gaethje - if it wasn't for Conor, would surely be fighting for the title in his next fight.
Ferguson - former interim champ, fighting for the title next.
Leon Edwards - one win away from fighting for the title
Till - was a soon-to-be title challenger (and it was basically a MW fighting a LW at WW)
Lawler - former champ
Masvial - should be fighting for the title next
RDA (x2) - was the soon-to-be champ and then as champ.
Pettis - was the soon-to-be champ
Nate - soon-to-be title challenger
Henderson (x2) - both for a WEC belt
Varner - for the WEC belt

Those were all the best of the best guys at the time he fought them. The guys below him in the top 15 have a long way to go to prove they are on that level. Lee is a tough fight for anyone (in theory anyway), but I wouldn't say he for sure beats Cowboy. MMA math doesn't work, but he lost to Raging Al twice. So it's not like he's some unbeatable phenom (no pun intended). Cowboy has already beat Raging Al, Barboza, Oliviera, and Hernandez. The rest might not be easy fights either, but this has happened a lot in Cowboy's career. He goes on a run, loses to the elite guys, takes a step back in competition, goes on a run...

Right, 2014 was a great year for him, but the resume of wins is less impressive than the resume of losses you referenced. And 155 is naturally an incredibly deep division, and the top 15 has been stagnant and inflated on account of Khabib and Conor.

Cowboy hasn't been functioning as an elite fighter at that weight class except for 2014. So top 5 overall in this day and age isn't close imo. Iaquinta, Felder, Hooker, Barboza, sure Cerrone on his best night in the future could hang maybe, but that ground is shifting away from all of those guys. Maybe 1 of Felder/Hooker is knocking on the door of the elites, but the loser of that fight will be a ways away from contention.

Anybody below him in the rankings I'd put the odds at worst as a pick 'em for Cowboy except for maaaaaaybe Lee and maaaaaaybe Islam. I don't really know a lot about Islam, but everyone's hyping him up as the next Khabib. If he is, sure, he'd beat Cowboy, but Cowboy has derailed some hype trains in his day, too.


Likewise. It can be hard to find reasonable discussion about MMA, so much appreciated.

Heck yeah.

You are right too, as far as worldwide rankings go, I guess it wouldn't be irresponsible for Cowboy to continue to do his thing against a lot of those guys. But the real threat is the 60-120 ranked or unknown 20 somethings imo. Currently tapology has Cowboy as the 83rd ranked Lightweight. To your point the guys in the 10-20-40 range, Cowboy has maybe already beaten or would at least be even odds with the other fighters in their late 30's. But to my point there are good fights for Cowboy where I would favor the prospect around his ranking at 83.

I actually love CDJ's idea for a Gillespie fight. That's genius and pretty much disqualifies all my concerns about Cowboy, while keeping him near the prime cut of the division. That way no one needs to know skinny ass Roosevelt Roberts could walk down and manhandle cowboy at this point. half kidding of course.

 

[vladdy16]

Nate vs Cowboy 2 would be terrific

I think you have to bump down an extra rung and go Pettis/Cowboy.

The result of Diaz Cowboy 1 was decisive and more surprising at that time than it would be if it happened again today imo.

 

[CDJ]

I think you have to bump down an extra rung and go Pettis/Cowboy.

The result of Diaz Cowboy 1 was decisive and more surprising at that time than it would be if it happened again today imo.

Pettis-Cowboy would be fun too

these are the types of fights cowboy should be taking at this point. I don’t need him fighting anybody with title aspirations anymore

 

[m9]

Nah, man. They get medical suspensions after fights and have to get cleared by doctors before they can fight again. Some stuff the fighter might be able to cover up, but you can't cover up a broken orbital or nose. It's way too big of a liability if the doctors/UFC try to cover something like that up, too. Also, that was over 6 months ago and they would have had to cover it up again after the Gaethje fight. I think it's much more likely that he just got his ass kicked and those shoulder strikes were that effective.

If you're talking about brain damage, in general, I think there is something to that. They do have some tests they have to pass, but I think a lot of guys don't take long enough to let their brains heal. Cowboy is especially bad at that, but he also took a lot of hard shots in that fight and it was a TKO, so it's not like Conor just touched him and he was out cold.

I don't think you're giving Cowboy or Conor enough credit, though. The only guys that beat Cowboy are the elite guys. I mean, we all get that it was a fight Conor was supposed to win, but to do it in the way he did was still impressive. It wasn't impressive enough for him to get the title shot IMO, and I think there will be plenty of outrage if he does, but Cowboy's still a top 5 LW that Conor smashed in less than a minute. For a guy who's last win was 3 years ago and was coming off a loss and a long lay off, that's a quality win.

More specifically in crediting Conor, the guy gets off to quick starts and has the ability to finish fights quickly. 4 of his 10 UFC wins were finishes within the first 2 minutes. Even if you aren't impressed with Cerrone, he did it to Aldo and Poirier too.

As for Cerrone's "injuries", I totally agree.