Trevor Timmins Discussion Part III

Discussion in 'Montreal Canadiens' started by yianik, Jul 15, 2018.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. bsl

    bsl Registered User

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2009
    Messages:
    8,369
    Likes Received:
    1,230
    Trophy Points:
    139
    Exactly. Page after page of defending the indefensible. I just don't get it. Why bother?

    I'm sorry but that is absurd. Timmins is not less at fault than the coaching and development staff. That's just not true. Timmins bears at least 50% responsibility and likely more for every 1st round fail. He drafted these players.

    You are a great poster and I love your research and dedication, but I have never agreed with your assertion that very good players can be greatly damaged by so called poor development, and mediocre players can be made much better by so called good development. I simply do not agree with this.

    I think the whole concept of 'player development' is a cliche with no basis in truth. If a guy is 18-20 and has played highly competitive hockey since age 5, he bloody well knows everything he has to do on and off the ice to succeed, or he does not. If he does not succeed, then he's likely dumb, or lazy , lacks skills, or strength, or some combination of these. All of these metrics can be known at the draft.

    If a player has the skill and the desire, they will motivate themselves and do the work that is required to make the NHL and succeed. Coaches have far less influence than you say. I simply do not agree with you on their influence.

    Finally, and the whole reason for my posting so many times and so vehemently on Timmins is this: The guy has almost 20 years experience in drafting. He has seen hundreds of prospects play, talked to hundreds of prospects, seen hundreds of games, seen hundreds of prospects fail and succeed, and why they failed and succeeded. And with all of that experience, he should be one of the most knowledgeable and successful scouts in the NHL. Like top 5 if not top 3. And he is clearly not. If Timmins had 5 years experience, I would cut him some slack. But he has about 20 years experience. It is for this reason that I cannot believe the excuses he is getting here. How much longer do you need? Another 5 years?

    I think you and some others are defending the indefensible.

    I can't understand. Are you agreeing or not? I believe he was saying that all of these so called victims of 'bad development' failed after leaving here also. It was a valid point.

    So another Timmins first round fail is OK because it was the 'right kind of pick', so he did well' Yeah OK. Scherbak is a bust that was just waived. That's what matters. Results. Not intentions.

    So if the draft is a 'crap shoot', which it is not by the way, why have scouts? Another classic meme here.

    Yeah it is. They're career minor leaguers. There . I said it. Easy.

    Not like the rest of them are Mensa candidates.
     
    Last edited by moderator montreal: Dec 8, 2018
    cphabs, Chris Nilan, Chili and 3 others like this.
  2. yianik

    yianik Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2009
    Messages:
    7,535
    Likes Received:
    2,451
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Hmmm.

    If you are picking top 2 , not a crap shoot, maybe can include top 3, but then the odds of selecting a top forward/D start declining to about 50/50 as you end the top 10 to about 20% as you get into the 20s, so crap shoot to a degree.

    My point is this. If you pick guys who can't skate, have limited skill etc , 2 way types, your success rate is going to be lower than if you pick skill, speed players. And we have selected of the former group, with lousy results.

    And FYI, I havent been happy with TT. I eyeballed a few drafts and each year about 24 players are top players ( top 6F, top 3/4D and starting goalie ). Sure it matters where you pick, but on replacement level this confirmed my thoughts that you need to draft about 1 top player every year. TT has not veed doing that, he has serious catch up to do.
     
  3. ECWHSWI

    ECWHSWI bought a MB jersey

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2006
    Messages:
    25,847
    Likes Received:
    3,391
    Trophy Points:
    186
    the cliche actually is what comes after the bolded.



    FYI...

    at 18-20 Andrei Markov was not even a NHLer
    at 18-20 Brad Marchand was not a NHLer either
    at this age, Kuznetzov was not a NHLer
    and there's Marchesseault, Pacioretty here, W. Karlsson, and you can add a ****load of names to the list of players who for some reason were not ready to play in the NHL at 18-20 but later on, with development, became good contributors to their NHL team...

    guys like P. Bergeron and Carbonneau learned the defensive side of their job in the NHL, they were top offensive players in the Jr...
     
    cphabs likes this.
  4. Gabe84

    Gabe84 Bring back Bonk!

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2007
    Messages:
    3,079
    Likes Received:
    165
    Trophy Points:
    111
    Location:
    Montreal, QC
    Mark Streit was pretty bad in his first season in the NHL at 27 years old. He really found his offensive game at 29 and became a realiable defenseman with the Flyers at 30 years old.

    That's a guy drafted by Timmins.
     
  5. ECWHSWI

    ECWHSWI bought a MB jersey

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2006
    Messages:
    25,847
    Likes Received:
    3,391
    Trophy Points:
    186
    yup, countless examples, I don't have much of an opinion on TT as I don't think he's necessarly bad but he could be replaced and we'd be fine... but to suggest players are somewhat fully developped at 20 ? huh no!
     
  6. Whitesnake

    Whitesnake In my opinion.....

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2003
    Messages:
    74,502
    Likes Received:
    9,781
    Trophy Points:
    231
    Occupation:
    Automation & Robotics
    Actually to watched Bergeron and Carbo play in juniors, they were very good offensive players....but they were already complete players. We are not talking pure 1-way offensive player here. Thing is it's a rare feature, if it never happened, that a guy with no junior success ends up being a great NHL'er. Yet, I also understand that it happens MUCH more frequently that star junior players do NOT develop all of them in star NHL'ers either. So yes, development plays a role. It does. I don't know why in this board, it's always white or black. It's not. It's always about a combination of things. But are we soon going to hear how Connor Crisp was finally a great pick that wasn't developed well by Lefebvre too?

    How can people say without hesitation that Tinordi is a development issue and Crisp isn't? Why is it that Scherbak is a development issue but not Fischer? Is Gallagher development success? Is Hudon a development failure?

    People just take a stance.....and dress their argumentation around it. I love Timmins, I hate Lefebvre, hence it's a development issue. For me, I hated Lefebvre for 3 years now. BUt think Timmins time is done. You actually can fault both of those guys. And in any sane world filled with guys that know their stuff, both guys would have lost their job based on recent history. Now that Lefebvre is gone, I hope that the spotlight goes back to Timmins. Hopefully for him, he will be saved by 2017 and 2018. But that remains to be seen.
     
    scrubadam, GoodKiwi and PaulD like this.
  7. Whitesnake

    Whitesnake In my opinion.....

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2003
    Messages:
    74,502
    Likes Received:
    9,781
    Trophy Points:
    231
    Occupation:
    Automation & Robotics
    That's like the exception of exceptions. No idea why it would be brought up to show as an example. And in today's NHL, with the UFA period coming sooner, no team will EVER have the chance to wait for a d-man to be good at 29 years old. Just impossible.
     
  8. 1909

    1909 Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2016
    Messages:
    9,543
    Likes Received:
    2,861
    Trophy Points:
    111
    Timmins= the most overrated "head scout- hockey VP" in the whole NHL.
     
  9. Whitesnake

    Whitesnake In my opinion.....

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2003
    Messages:
    74,502
    Likes Received:
    9,781
    Trophy Points:
    231
    Occupation:
    Automation & Robotics
    Well overrated for the ones who thought for so long that he was the ultimate best of the best, and that oh no, if we lose, what will we do type of reactions? Yeah....totally. But some might have a few good points about him still being top 15. Yet, for that to happen, we would have to dissect each and every team and see who is out there NOW and what they did. 'Cause it's not enough to take Timmins from 03 to today and count the number of prospects.....some head scouts have been there for just 3, 4, 5 years. Maybe in prorata, their numbers are much better.
     
  10. montreal

    montreal Go Habs Go

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2002
    Messages:
    40,336
    Likes Received:
    8,546
    Trophy Points:
    231
    Gender:
    Male
    injuries are valid excuses imo, there's no telling what Reway would have been with more maturity or what Nygren could have done if he was healthy when the Habs wanted to call him up.

    I'm on the other side of the fence, I'm a big believer that hockey is mostly mental, say 80% as you skate, pass, shoot, there's not a lot to it imo. So for me hockey is mostly about confidence at this level outside of no talent grinders that coaches like CJ and MT love to have on their team. Once you lose that confidence it can be very hard to get back.

    As for coaching i think it plays a huge part, I look at how crappy teams can turn things around when they fire their coach and bring in someone much better. Doesn't always happen but at times you need someone that can push players the right way. You say that if a player has skill and desire they will motivate themselves, but they may need a good coach to show them certain things or how to improve on their weaknesses.

    I've said Timmins has his share of the blame but if you read through all the Timmins threads most seem to like the job he did up until '07. So what happened after that? Do people think the game changed on him and he didn't adjust quick enough? One thing we do know is that aside from a lack of picks and a lack of quality picks, we hired a coach that had ZERO games of experience as a head coach and all the sudden over the course of 6 years we can't develop for ****. Now Timmins has his blame but as someone that watched almost every AHL team, I point the finger more at Lefebvre but that doesn't mean Timmins doesn't share the blame as well as the players and management for rushing them.
     
  11. PaulD

    PaulD Time for a new GM

    Joined:
    Feb 4, 2016
    Messages:
    15,240
    Likes Received:
    6,741
    Trophy Points:
    141
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    Contractor
    Location:
    Dundas
    Nope. On Sly, You are wrong. Dead wrong.

    Even Therrien beats him in the brains department.
     
    Acadien86 and montreal like this.
  12. bsl

    bsl Registered User

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2009
    Messages:
    8,369
    Likes Received:
    1,230
    Trophy Points:
    139
    I agree Yes go for offensive potential top six players. And that's another reason I dislike Timmins. But I was not talking about that. I was disagreeing that it's a crap shoot per player picked, regardless of the player style. A crap shoot is 100 % luck. The draft is probably 20% luck. Luck at the draft should never be an excuse for bad drafting, especially year after year. And luck should also not be cited as purely the reason for a great late pick. In fact, in fairness, Timmins made a great pick on Gallagher. I don't call that luck.

    Pretty sure I did not say guys are fully developed at age 20. Don't put words in my mouth.
     
  13. ECWHSWI

    ECWHSWI bought a MB jersey

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2006
    Messages:
    25,847
    Likes Received:
    3,391
    Trophy Points:
    186
    well you did say they should know by 18-20 so...
     
  14. bsl

    bsl Registered User

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2009
    Messages:
    8,369
    Likes Received:
    1,230
    Trophy Points:
    139
    Edit **** it I can't be bothered.
     
  15. No fan fiction

    No fan fiction Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2004
    Messages:
    489
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    71


    Pointing the finger at Lefebvre needs to be taken with several grains of salt. If you knew as much about the AHL as you purport, you'd know that an AHL team usually has only 4-5 legitimate prospects at most at any given time. When, pray tell, did Lefebvre ever have that many? Who are they and where are they now? How many are in the NHL? His first 2-3 seasons he was dealing with one of the worst farm systems in the NHL The previous regime got us a 3rd overall choice for a reason. The cupboard was bare. You might argue the last 2-3 seasons he should have had a better result b/c the talent should have been replenished. Sly didn't make Tinordi & McCarron slow. He didn't make Scherbak unwilling to work at a necessary level. He didn't make Nygren hate Hamilton (Hamilton could do that to anyone).

    Go back to the 2012 draft which was absolutely crucial to get right. Sly didn't make Brady Vail & Erik Nystrom not worth signing & Dalton Thrower close to that. They were that way when drafted. We at least got a rental on Vanek for Collberg, but that was a wasted pick otherwise. Yes, Bozon was beset by illness, but was he really a legit prospect or a borderline hopeful? He had 12 pts in 44 games last year in a not very good league. That's a thoroughly wasted draft. Wasted. That's not on Sly. Those should have been his building blocks. He never really got to coach any of them, except Hudon--a 5th rd pick--and where is he? Tell me again about Sly vs Timmins? That one draft, which was so vital, should be enough evidence on its face.

    very team has players with injuries. Boston lost Norman Leveille and Duncan Macpherson.
    Every team has players with injuries. Boston lost Norman Leveille and Duncan Macpherson.
    The next draft: 8 picks. A second must-have draft to restock and start the rebuild. Sly still hasn't made McCarron slow. Lekhonen didn't play for Sly. Crisp couldn't make the ECHL and Fucale spent most of his time there, too. Not on Sly. Gregoire was 176th overall. Where did we think he was going to play? He still has a career, as an AHLer. Not on sly. Reway not on Sly. De La Rose and Andrighetto are where, again?

    That's 15 draft choices--FIFTEEN--over 2 very important drafts. Which ones do we pin on Sly or the development crew again?

    Next draft: Scherbak is a first rounder and he just got waived. Pin that on Sly? Lernout is a stiff. He can't skate. Koberstein may not be signed. He's shown no development in college. Audette was a flyer on a fast kid and a nod of respect to his dad. Nobody here thought he was legit. Who is Hayden Hawkey. Evans never played for Sly. Another wasted draft. Which one is on Sly? Scherbak, who was on an 87 pt pace for him? Right.

    That's 21 bodies. Which one of those is directly attributable to Sly? Which one. Can you legitimately even find one?
     
    bsl, Chili, Victorius and 1 other person like this.
  16. groovejuice

    groovejuice Without deviation progress is not possible

    Joined:
    Jun 27, 2011
    Messages:
    17,665
    Likes Received:
    13,254
    Trophy Points:
    205
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Calgary
    During his exit interviews Lefebvre actually proudly admitted that he didn't believe in development, so spent no time pursuing it. Unless you believe that it serves no purpose whatsoever, this reflects terribly on the entire management group, especially Bergevin.

    It's not about turning draft picks into stars. It's about helping prospects become NHLers with all the tools they need to do so. Posters ignoring this is more than a little astonishing, and it smells like a reflex stance to excuse poor management more than anything else.
     
    montreal and Runner77 like this.
  17. montreal

    montreal Go Habs Go

    Joined:
    Mar 21, 2002
    Messages:
    40,336
    Likes Received:
    8,546
    Trophy Points:
    231
    Gender:
    Male
    It never fails, every year there's at least one poster trying to spin the wheel of excuses for Lefebvre. Look at Laval last year, worst team in the league, McCarron as a 3rd year pro looked like ****, playing with ECHLers mostly. The defense was a ****ing tire fire. I can't believe that two former NHLers couldn't at least work with their players so that they didn't have so many defensive breakdowns. He has to be the worst coach i've ever seen. I don't care if you don't have any talent, you should at least be able to get the players to play a little better, not look like they don't what the **** they are doing out there.

    This year McCarron looks so much better. He's 2nd on the team in assists, 4th in points, he's on pace for almost double the points and they don't have much firepower in Laval this year with the loss of Agostino, Chaput. At least last year they had the best player in the league in Terry and still sucked.

    The defense looks so much more structured, the are the best team in the AHL in shots allowed, they are among the best teams in the AHL in ga although if Lindgren is out long term that won't last as Marcoux was terrible and while McNiven has looked better he hasn't played much since turning pro and needs more work.

    I just don't get how someone can look at a player like Leblanc who was one of our best players under one coach and then another a different he looked like ****. Or how McCarron got worse every year under one coach and so far is playing some of his best hockey since turning pro under a different coach. But it's not the coaches fault, the fact that so many players regressed under him but it's not his fault. But if that were the case then what's that say about management? That they fired the wrong guy? If it wasn't Lefebvre's fault, why did he get sent packing and Timmins still the AGM? Now I'm now fan of MB but I'm willing to bet he FINALLY got it right after 6 years of having one of the worst coaches our AHL team has had and replaced him with a much better choice.
     
    groovejuice likes this.
  18. Toene

    Toene "Che" Weber

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2014
    Messages:
    2,789
    Likes Received:
    991
    Trophy Points:
    109
    I dont know about the scouting business but maybe some more knowledgeable people than me could answer this : are there any young scout "prospects" being talked about/hyped in those circles? What I mean is a kind of Dubas/Chayka/Brisebois of the scouting world, accumulating low-key great successes with their fresh, astute vision.

    I say this because Im not against change, far from it, but firing Timmins also means committing to someone for the long-term, since it's a job that can be properly evaluated sometimes a decade after the choices made.
    If they pick a HS with average vision because of inflated/undeserved reputation, we may be stuck with someone who, like Timmins and co, seems to always be a bit behind the trends. Vision, vision, vision, please. So no change for the sake of it, only if an excellent, certified bust-dodger candidate comes up. And Im not sure I trust MB for such a hire. Id prefer the next management makes that move.
     
  19. Whitesnake

    Whitesnake In my opinion.....

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2003
    Messages:
    74,502
    Likes Received:
    9,781
    Trophy Points:
    231
    Occupation:
    Automation & Robotics
    I was amongst the few who bashed Lefebvre for quite a while now....but when your GM tells the world that you don't have to win to develop properly......you have to believe that Lefebvre's weaknesses started with Bergevin view on things....He is the one who didn't believe in winning. He's the one who let Lefebvre for so long. At one point, do you have blame Houle, or you blame Corey for appointing him for a job Houle couldn't refuse? Well Lefebvre is no Houle.....but he still was supported by a GM with no vision. And that couldn't pull the plug as for him...there was actually no plug to pull...winning was not important.

    Lefebvre has a lot of blame to take. I've proven with stats that other teams have done better or MUCH better with teams like Lefebvre had to work with. This whole "but he worked with so many players" is just disregarding everybody else who also had to do it and did better. And quite a few teams who did better had the same type of players that we did. And at one point, NOBODY keeps a job with so many consecutive losing years. NOBODY. In any sport.
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2018
    montreal likes this.
  20. Chili

    Chili Registered User

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2004
    Messages:
    5,920
    Likes Received:
    921
    Trophy Points:
    194
    Location:
    Sugar Mountain
    From: Jacques Plante

    That`s what Frank Selke was looking for in players and it resulted in alot of team success, first in Toronto then with the Habs. In my opinion as relevant now as back then.

    What do the Habs look for in players both at the pro and amateur level? Would like to hear what both Bergevin and Timmins look for. Some of the players Bergevin has added like Weber, Shaw,Byron, Domi seem to fit the above criteria. Among the drafted players certainly sounds like Gallagher especially.

    It`s not up to the scouts to set the organizational standards but it is up to them to find the talent. I especially like the emphasis above on self motivated because players will face many challenges in their careers they`ll have to deal with.
     
  21. No fan fiction

    No fan fiction Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2004
    Messages:
    489
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    71
    This was not about Lefebvre. This is the Trevor Timmins thread. I gave you a list of 21--:ha:TWENTY-ONE :ha:--draft choices from the first three drafts after the regime change. Those were the most important drafts of the decade. We have nothing to show for them--nothing. The only picks in the NHL were the ones who actually played for Lefebvre. The fact that this also disqualifies your Lefebvre arguments is just a bonus.

    The fact that you keep going back to Leblanc--from which you had to be saved previously--is just ridiculous. Best player on the team the previous year? Do you know how bad that team was? Brian Willsie was the leading scorer with 44pts! There are 1244 NHL games among 12 players, including 2 with 1 game each and Willsie & Ryan White who have 694 between them. Best NHL career of the lot: Willsie or White; i.e., barely 4th line energy guys. Saying "one of the best" of that lot is like being the smartest Trump kid. It's not much of a bar.

    How did Leblanc do when set free? It was the same. He was a terrible player in a terrible Euro league at 25 and was done.

    Worse, you keep going back to McCarron. The issue is skating. He can't skate. An AHL head coach is many things but power skating instructor isn't one of them. It's pretty clear they have been searching for something--that one magical thing--that McCarron might actually be able to do besides "Go stand there and be large," so he isn't a complete waste of a 1st rd pick. They haven't found it. He can't skate. That is on Timmins, was on Timmins and always will be on Timmins.

    But, you keep going to the strawman that this is somehow about redeeming Lefebvre.
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2018
    Victorius likes this.
  22. No fan fiction

    No fan fiction Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2004
    Messages:
    489
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    71
    Your confirmation bias is incredible. At the pro level talent is more than 90% of it. Jim Rome regularly asks players that very question. They all have incredible skills. The difference between the AHL and the NHL is actually almost imperceptibly small b/c the guys are so good. Fans put to it heart, caring, ethic, desire, compete, work, etc. Those are all fans' confirmation bias because quite frankly until you have played at that level you will never have an understanding of just how good they are.

    Oh, and there's this thing called google scholar where you can look up empirical studies of this very topic: Google Scholar
     
  23. No fan fiction

    No fan fiction Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2004
    Messages:
    489
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    71
    No. No. No. This was always about the unimpeachibility of one Trevor Timmins. Of the 21 picks over the first 3 yrs of this regime, how many became NHL players? How many of those who became NHL players were the ones Lefebvre coached (like DLR, Andrighetto, Hudon). Oops. Never was it said that he was wonderful. It was said that Trevor Timmins bears the brunt of any ire.

    Do you really think DLR as a 9 min/game 4th liner on Detroit gets you a 2nd pick? That is fan fiction.
    The garbage about getting Domi without trading Galchenyuk? Fan fiction. I bet an XBox doesn't even allow that trade.
    This is like the people who spent an entire year debating the exact date that Halak should have been traded.
    This is the level of Gredo didn't move stuff. That's fan fiction based on a movie, not real life events. That's what this nonsense is like.
     
  24. No fan fiction

    No fan fiction Registered User

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2004
    Messages:
    489
    Likes Received:
    45
    Trophy Points:
    71
    But isn't that his job? To make sure that someone is a viable player for the Montréal Canadiens, not the Laval Rocket or Buffalo Sabres? Draft choices are like cars. They lose 1/3 of their value the instant you drive them off the lot. They only hold or improve value by becoming classics.
     
  25. Sorinth

    Sorinth Registered User

    Joined:
    Jan 18, 2013
    Messages:
    7,511
    Likes Received:
    1,576
    Trophy Points:
    109
    Disagree entirely. Has Poehling lost 1/3 of his value since being drafted? No, his value has increased because he had a very good D+1 year, and answered some of the question marks that he had on draft day. He hasn't become a classic either since he's very much still a question mark at the NHL.

    A better analogy would be a bunch of people with wrapped presents swapping them between themselves. You get a present, can see the shape, you maybe shake it around, see how much it weighs, read the card, etc... and with that can make an educated guess about what the present actually is. If you don't think it's something you want/need you swap it for a different present, because once you open it everybody knows what it is, and if it's crap nobody will trade you anything for it.

    Bergevin always wants to open the present and see what it is, he's not willing to risk swapping it when it's still wrapped because it might be something he really wants. Part of his job is to get the right present, which means being good at figuring out what the present is before unwrapping.
     
    montreal and Tomas Tatahhh like this.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
    Dismiss Notice
monitoring_string = "358c248ada348a047a4b9bb27a146148"