Trevor Timmins Discussion Part III

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No fan fiction

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Nov 16, 2004
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Disagree entirely. Has Poehling lost 1/3 of his value since being drafted? No, his value has increased because he had a very good D+1 year, and answered some of the question marks that he had on draft day. He hasn't become a classic either since he's very much still a question mark at the NHL.

A better analogy would be a bunch of people with wrapped presents swapping them between themselves. You get a present, can see the shape, you maybe shake it around, see how much it weighs, read the card, etc... and with that can make an educated guess about what the present actually is. If you don't think it's something you want/need you swap it for a different present, because once you open it everybody knows what it is, and if it's crap nobody will trade you anything for it.

Bergevin always wants to open the present and see what it is, he's not willing to risk swapping it when it's still wrapped because it might be something he really wants. Part of his job is to get the right present, which means being good at figuring out what the present is before unwrapping.

Fair point re Poehling. The part I am not understanding about this board is that it seems every player (except PK Subban) is supposed to be traded at the moment of ultimate ripeness for some imagined, fanciful return (cf. every player traded or retained from Halak to DLR) or that some moment of ultimate ripeness actually exists. Or, to put it another way, fan fiction posters on hockey boards don't understand opportunity cost at all.
 

No fan fiction

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If someone doesn't fit into your plan/vision for the team then trading them at their peak value is obviously the goal because it improves your chances of being a contender. The more value you accumulate the more you can turn it into a winning team.

I do think fans tend to oversimplify the GMs job down to asset management (Trades, signings) when in fact a much bigger part of the job is hiring the right people, like the scouts, coaches, support staff, etc... And sure fans do tend to think that they should get diamonds for their scrapheap players. But really so what? It's easy to ignore the ridiculous trade proposals, but I don't see why asset management shouldn't be a major part of the conversation about the GM.

Don't disagree. My point is that there are 50 contracts. Age, contract status, cap hit, etc. also all count in this era. That's why Timmins has to take the brunt of everything. Thus, if I have Vejdemo, who looks like DLR+, then I'm keeping that "asset." I'm also keeping Chaput, Agostino, Froese, etc. b/c they are known commodities--ie, assets--who might be better able to handle being the 14th or 15th forward than, say, DLR, who can't really handle much.
 

Sorinth

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Don't disagree. My point is that there are 50 contracts. Age, contract status, cap hit, etc. also all count in this era. That's why Timmins has to take the brunt of everything. Thus, if I have Vejdemo, who looks like DLR+, then I'm keeping that "asset." I'm also keeping Chaput, Agostino, Froese, etc. b/c they are known commodities--ie, assets--who might be better able to handle being the 14th or 15th forward than, say, DLR, who can't really handle much.

I'm not sure how this relates to what I posted but I'm not sure how anyone can look at that and has single out DLR as the guy whose a question mark and the rest are known commodities.
Here are there NHL stats
DLR has 24 points in 139 NHL games
Chaput has 20 points in 145 games
Froese has 16 points in 110 games
Agostino has 13 in 38 games

And on top of it DLR is 3-4 years younger, and for those that care he's also bigger.

It's also not clear what Timmins has to do with anything, his job when he was in charge of scouting wasn't to balance age, contract status, cap hit, etc... that's the GMs job. If you're implying that Timmins was supposed to fill every hole the team had through drafting then those are ridiculous expectations.
 
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The Great Weal

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looks like they went the safer route so they may end up with a few guys picked after him that have higher upside. I have seen a ton of Poehling, I like him a lot but not sold on his offensive upside, that said I think he'll be a very solid NHLer.
They did the same thing with Juulsen.
 

26Mats

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Jun 23, 2018
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These guys weren't safe picks...They were high risk, high reward.

Tinordi was a safe pick imo at the time. I also think it's a safe bet he would have had a long NHL career if the game hadn't changed so much.

I definitely agree that McCarron was a high risk pick. imo he was a reach to try to address a need - at the time we were too small and getting pushed around.
 

Whitesnake

If you rebuild, they will come.
Jan 5, 2003
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No. No. No. This was always about the unimpeachibility of one Trevor Timmins. Of the 21 picks over the first 3 yrs of this regime, how many became NHL players? How many of those who became NHL players were the ones Lefebvre coached (like DLR, Andrighetto, Hudon). Oops. Never was it said that he was wonderful. It was said that Trevor Timmins bears the brunt of any ire.

Do you really think DLR as a 9 min/game 4th liner on Detroit gets you a 2nd pick? That is fan fiction.
The garbage about getting Domi without trading Galchenyuk? Fan fiction. I bet an XBox doesn't even allow that trade.
This is like the people who spent an entire year debating the exact date that Halak should have been traded.
This is the level of Gredo didn't move stuff. That's fan fiction based on a movie, not real life events. That's what this nonsense is like.

Jakub Jerabek was traded to the Caps for a 5th round pick. Once he proved how worthless he was, he was traded for a 6th round pick. Type of player that if we would have lost through waivers, you would have called fan fiction anybody who would have suggested that we shoud have been able to trade him for a pick in return. And yet, DLR got nothing. A younger centerman with nice speed that is responsible defensively got nothing. Not even a conditional 7th rounder. There are so many examples of bad players being traded for picks...I have no idea how you can call it fan fiction that we could have anticipated the same thing for him.....

Yes, I always said lately that Timmins has to share a freakin boatload of responsabilities. But Lefebvre shouldn't be clear because of him. Again, as I proved times and times again, the famous ''but poor Lefebvre had to deal with so many players playing for him'' is bogus. Plenty of AHL teams have to deal with that. And even the ones who did much better than us. Then, I also proved, no fan fiction, that worst teams have done better. Teams with less offensive firepower or about as much as Lefebvre's teams. And not only better but for some significantly better. There are 2 things here. One is to development kids. But the other one is conduct yourself like a coach who still has to win. Not only his development record is bad, but just his ability to coach is not good.
 

danyhabsfan

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It's tough to predict where the league was going at that time.


In 2010, when we drafted Tinordi the league was still drafting bigger players. (Gudbranson, McIlrath, Forbort)

In 2011 and 2012, Bruins and Kings had won the cup with big teams and we drafted a big players to follow their mold. (Morin, Gauthier, Reichel)


The league is all about speed so these guys arent quick enough.
 

No fan fiction

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Jakub Jerabek was traded to the Caps for a 5th round pick. Once he proved how worthless he was, he was traded for a 6th round pick. Type of player that if we would have lost through waivers, you would have called fan fiction anybody who would have suggested that we shoud have been able to trade him for a pick in return. And yet, DLR got nothing. A younger centerman with nice speed that is responsible defensively got nothing. Not even a conditional 7th rounder. There are so many examples of bad players being traded for picks...I have no idea how you can call it fan fiction that we could have anticipated the same thing for him.....

Yes, I always said lately that Timmins has to share a freakin boatload of responsabilities. But Lefebvre shouldn't be clear because of him. Again, as I proved times and times again, the famous ''but poor Lefebvre had to deal with so many players playing for him'' is bogus. Plenty of AHL teams have to deal with that. And even the ones who did much better than us. Then, I also proved, no fan fiction, that worst teams have done better. Teams with less offensive firepower or about as much as Lefebvre's teams. And not only better but for some significantly better. There are 2 things here. One is to development kids. But the other one is conduct yourself like a coach who still has to win. Not only his development record is bad, but just his ability to coach is not good.

3 things really quick: a) defenceman; b) in season not start of season, post-training camp when there are always extra players; c) your conclusion has become your assumption. The last is is the worst.

Do you really think that MB--forget that, any GM in the NHL who loses a player via waivers or free agency--never once attempted to package that player in some kind of trade? Really? That is what you and Montreal are writing implicitly every single time and that is pure fan fiction, pure fan wish fulfillment, pure fan confirmation bias.

Last, I never said a thing about Lefebvre's player turn over. What I did say is that in 3 drafts, totalling 21 draft choices, Timmins failed to restock so much as an ECHL team let alone a viable prospect pool in the AHL.
 

26Mats

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Id say Juulsen and Poehling are quality late first rounders. I wouldnt lump them with the Mccarrons and tinordis of the world

Juulsen is almost certainly in a different league. Poehling is looking good, but so were Tinordi and McCarron at various points in their development.

My best guess is that Poehling will be a quality 3c. But it's just a guess based on hearsay. I'll wait to take my opinion seriously until I see him at the AHL or NHL level.
 

The Great Weal

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Id say Juulsen and Poehling are quality late first rounders. I wouldnt lump them with the Mccarrons and tinordis of the world
I'd say they are about average. Especially when you consider how good the 2015 and 2017 drafts look.
 

No fan fiction

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Nov 16, 2004
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I'm not sure how this relates to what I posted but I'm not sure how anyone can look at that and has single out DLR as the guy whose a question mark and the rest are known commodities.
Here are there NHL stats
DLR has 24 points in 139 NHL games
Chaput has 20 points in 145 games
Froese has 16 points in 110 games
Agostino has 13 in 38 games

And on top of it DLR is 3-4 years younger, and for those that care he's also bigger.

It's also not clear what Timmins has to do with anything, his job when he was in charge of scouting wasn't to balance age, contract status, cap hit, etc... that's the GMs job. If you're implying that Timmins was supposed to fill every hole the team had through drafting then those are ridiculous expectations.

My point was that as much whining as there is about DLR being up and down from the minors, this is absolutely positively the normal state of affairs for players who are interchangeable bit parts. It is to be expected when you are a fringe 4th liner. Guys who have been around longer and have proven that this doesn't bother them at all are far more useful than someone who is so fragile that his confidence is shot by the prospect of having to look in a mirror and realize he is a fringe 4th liner.

I am not implying Timmins has to fill every hole, but it would be nice if the first 21--TWENTY-ONE--picks he made for the current regime were not filled with the likes of Brady Vail, Dalton Thrower, Collbeg, Nystrom, DLR, and a bunch of other. How many MTL draftees are on the current roster? How many since 2012? I'd like Timmins to be at least able to fill and AHL team.
 

Miller Time

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My point was that as much whining as there is about DLR being up and down from the minors, this is absolutely positively the normal state of affairs for players who are interchangeable bit parts. It is to be expected when you are a fringe 4th liner. Guys who have been around longer and have proven that this doesn't bother them at all are far more useful than someone who is so fragile that his confidence is shot by the prospect of having to look in a mirror and realize he is a fringe 4th liner.

I am not implying Timmins has to fill every hole, but it would be nice if the first 21--TWENTY-ONE--picks he made for the current regime were not filled with the likes of Brady Vail, Dalton Thrower, Collbeg, Nystrom, DLR, and a bunch of other. How many MTL draftees are on the current roster? How many since 2012? I'd like Timmins to be at least able to fill and AHL team.

It's already been well established... Timmins/Habs remain one of the better drafting organizations in the league as far as NHL games goes.

If the management team wasn't so inept on the development & asset management side, we'd actally benefit from the overall drafting success
 

No fan fiction

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It's already been well established... Timmins/Habs remain one of the better drafting organizations in the league as far as NHL games goes.

If the management team wasn't so inept on the development & asset management side, we'd actally benefit from the overall drafting success

No, no it hasn't. That is pure fan fiction stemming from one, maybe two mods, moaning about Lefebvre this, Lefebvre that to the tune of hundreds of posts in one case, since the man was hired. I am not saying Lefebvre is any good at all, but let's look very clearly at the first 21--TWENTY-ONE--picks Timmins made under Bergevin. Of those, how many did the dev team actually have a chance to develop? Period.

How many were not even signed? How many were just dumped to the ECHL? If they were sent to the ECHL from Jr. that isn't on the dev team. That means they probably shouldn't have been drafted or they were drafted as nothing but minor league depth. No matter how good the development team is, you cannot turn Brady Vail into Mark Messier. You probably couldn't even turn Brady Vail into Eric Manlow. Let's be for real.

In fact, if you actually look, the players who were "developed" are actually in the NHL: Hudon, Andrighetto, DLR. That's it. That's the full extent. Three players. All the rest were banished, went right to the NHL (Lekhonen, Galchenyuk) or not signed or had illness/injury (Bozon, Reway, Crisp) get in the way.

I would put any first rounder on the scouts entirely. You do not draft 1st rounders, esp in a know rebuild, who are "projects." You draft players. McCarron cannot skate. He doesn't need a dev team. He needs skating lessons. Scherbak was just fine--87 pt pace last year--but was hurt a lot. How is any of that on the dev team? How?

It has been proven to be fan fiction, fan confirmation bias, and fan presumptuousness.
 
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Sorinth

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My point was that as much whining as there is about DLR being up and down from the minors, this is absolutely positively the normal state of affairs for players who are interchangeable bit parts. It is to be expected when you are a fringe 4th liner. Guys who have been around longer and have proven that this doesn't bother them at all are far more useful than someone who is so fragile that his confidence is shot by the prospect of having to look in a mirror and realize he is a fringe 4th liner.

Except this is stupid, if the guy is 19-21 and will only be used as a fringe 4th liner it makes no sense to call him up. Let him continue to develop in the AHL so that he can improve his game and possibly become more then a fringe 4th liner.

I am not implying Timmins has to fill every hole, but it would be nice if the first 21--TWENTY-ONE--picks he made for the current regime were not filled with the likes of Brady Vail, Dalton Thrower, Collbeg, Nystrom, DLR, and a bunch of other. How many MTL draftees are on the current roster? How many since 2012? I'd like Timmins to be at least able to fill and AHL team.

I don't want to rehash all the Timmins stuff here, there's a separate thread for that and I've made my position known. Every teams draft lists are filled with misses, that's the nature of the draft. There are currently 9 NHLers from the drafts 2012 and onwards, Mete would be 10th but was sent down recently. I would imagine that's middle of the pack numbers league wide, but I haven't checked.
 
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No fan fiction

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Except this is stupid, if the guy is 19-21 and will only be used as a fringe 4th liner it makes no sense to call him up. Let him continue to develop in the AHL so that he can improve his game and possibly become more then a fringe 4th liner.



I don't want to rehash all the Timmins stuff here, there's a separate thread for that and I've made my position known. Every teams draft lists are filled with misses, that's the nature of the draft. There are currently 9 NHLers from the drafts 2012 and onwards, Mete would be 10th but was sent down recently. I would imagine that's middle of the pack numbers league wide, but I haven't checked.

a) Except this is stupid. If a guy is a fringe 4th liner, no amount of "letting him flourish" is going to help. In recent memory, Jason Ward was left in the AHL "to flourish." He was leading the league in scoring at one point. Everybody here moaned about it. He was still just a 4th line fringe player. Hudon was left in the AHL to "flourish." Everybody here moaned about it, especially Montreal. Healthy scratch how many games? Truth is, the move isn't looking like it was Chaput, Deslauriers or Peca over DLR but instead was Hudon over DLR. Who's the healthy scratch?

And b) "I imagine that's middle of the pack" is a long, long, long way from "it's been proven" that Timmins is one of the best. Now we've gone from "proven" to a very vivid imagination. Anyone still wonder why I call these threads fan fiction?
 

Sorinth

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a) Except this is stupid. If a guy is a fringe 4th liner, no amount of "letting him flourish" is going to help. In recent memory, Jason Ward was left in the AHL "to flourish." He was leading the league in scoring at one point. Everybody here moaned about it. He was still just a 4th line fringe player. Hudon was left in the AHL to "flourish." Everybody here moaned about it, especially Montreal. Healthy scratch how many games? Truth is, the move isn't looking like it was Chaput, Deslauriers or Peca over DLR but instead was Hudon over DLR. Who's the healthy scratch?

Well the counter to that is Pacioretty who was a fringe player in the NHL at 19-20, until he asked to be sent down to the AHL and turned into a 35 goal scorer.

If you seriously believe a player doesn't develop in the AHL then really we can end this here because it's pointless to go on.

And b) "I imagine that's middle of the pack" is a long, long, long way from "it's been proven" that Timmins is one of the best. Now we've gone from "proven" to a very vivid imagination. Anyone still wonder why I call these threads fan fiction?

How have we gone from "proven" to "middle of the pack" when in the conversation WE had, I never said he was proven as one of the best. Maybe you think these threads are fan fiction because you can't follow a conversation properly?
 

No fan fiction

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Well the counter to that is Pacioretty who was a fringe player in the NHL at 19-20, until he asked to be sent down to the AHL and turned into a 35 goal scorer.

If you seriously believe a player doesn't develop in the AHL then really we can end this here because it's pointless to go on.



How have we gone from "proven" to "middle of the pack" when in the conversation WE had, I never said he was proven as one of the best. Maybe you think these threads are fan fiction because you can't follow a conversation properly?

Then you don't understand the difference between a 1st round draft choice who was always drafted to be a top-6 forward and Jacob De La Rose. And if you don't, then you're right. We're done because no amount of development is ever going to turn Jacob De La Rose into a 10-goal scorer let alone a 35 goal-scorer who needed to get used to playing 80 games instead of 35-40 as in college. This is still the biggest single difference cited and still isn't a development issue. It's a conditioning issue.
 

Miller Time

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No, no it hasn't. That is pure fan fiction stemming from one, maybe two mods, moaning about Lefebvre this, Lefebvre that to the tune of hundreds of posts in one case, since the man was hired. I am not saying Lefebvre is any good at all, but let's look very clearly at the first 21--TWENTY-ONE--picks Timmins made under Bergevin. Of those, how many did the dev team actually have a chance to develop? Period.

How many were not even signed? How many were just dumped to the ECHL? If they were sent to the ECHL from Jr. that isn't on the dev team. That means they probably shouldn't have been drafted or they were drafted as nothing but minor league depth. No matter how good the development team is, you cannot turn Brady Vail into Mark Messier. You probably couldn't even turn Brady Vail into Eric Manlow. Let's be for real.

In fact, if you actually look, the players who were "developed" are actually in the NHL: Hudon, Andrighetto, DLR. That's it. That's the full extent. Three players. All the rest were banished, went right to the NHL (Lekhonen, Galchenyuk) or not signed or had illness/injury (Bozon, Reway, Crisp) get in the way.

I would put any first rounder on the scouts entirely. You do not draft 1st rounders, esp in a know rebuild, who are "projects." You draft players. McCarron cannot skate. He doesn't need a dev team. He needs skating lessons. Scherbak was just fine--87 pt pace last year--but was hurt a lot. How is any of that on the dev team? How?

It has been proven to be fan fiction, fan confirmation bias, and fan presumptuousness.

Numbers don't lie. You are mistaking opinion with fact.
 
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