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CapnZin

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Jul 20, 2017
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It's far worse than that, the hidden flaw in every regression is left out variable error (LOVE).

Unless it's a controlled experiment where you can measure and control every variable, you actually are only using those variables for which you have measurements (and you hope those are unbiased), and don't know the "unknown unknowns" that might be determining the outcome - at best you have imperfect proxies for the true variables.

Which is why every statistical test is essentially flawed
Or why I put as much stock on robustness as significant tests.

Or as Box said: "All models are wrong, some models are useful."
You should never take stock in any regression that doesn’t have an error posted or one where you can’t derive/solve for. These stats have that, so you can see how your analysis differs... that’s why I quoted you up there.

You can’t calculate the error by hand (you’d have to use some heavy software) unless you had all the time in the world, also, statistical comparisons on the margin don’t work in that case time with time-sensitive data; only because the variance becomes volatile.

Technically speaking, you would have to assume it’s all controlled (excluding games that go to OT), however, again- those regressions look at sample data (ie the players stats), but it’s based on population data.

Yes, stats don’t tell the whole story, but people who argue against them mainly don’t understand the use of them... not trying to be that way, but all the arguments seem very ‘simple’, when this is complex.

You’re not going to find someone who did everything the same (you wouldn’t need to regress any differences, lol), but this is a weird industry to use comparative stats.
Some you can use based off of time are predictive regressions, BUT, you can’t marginalize it to the league average. Stuff like that.
 

Ruck Over

When the revolution comes, pants will do you no gd
Apr 19, 2016
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Even Therrien here what are the odds he is traded here?
Very low IMO
Again that's hindsight. When the rumors were running around that Subban was available, it was pre-Therien becoming an AC. Now, there was a pact, and yada yada yada, but the two were not mutually exclusive.
 

NYCFlyer

Registered User
Nov 23, 2002
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It was always going to be a playoff roster. It should have been a playoff roster last year.
A lot had to go right last year for us to make the playoffs. Our goaltending was bottom 5 in the league and our D was bottom 8 or so. You also can't divorce coaching from roster. I think goaltending is still an open issue. Hart is very talented but the shooters will learn his tendencies quickly and he will probably have ups and downs as he continues to mature. Elliot cant stay healthy. Coaching to me is the biggest upgrade although I think the D will also be much better this year. Av's has had a lot of very good goalies and he seems to handle them well.
 
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Ruck Over

When the revolution comes, pants will do you no gd
Apr 19, 2016
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A lot had to go right last year for us to make the playoffs. Our goaltending was bottom 5 in the league and our D was bottom 8 or so. You also can't divorce coaching from roster. I think goaltending is still an open issue. Hart is very talented but the shooters will learn his tendencies quickly and he will probably have ups and downs as he continues to mature. Elliot cant stay healthy. Coaching to me is the biggest upgrade although I think the D will also be much better this year. Av's has had a lot of very good goalies and he seems to handle them well.
With the bad goalies, and bad defense, the forward group still almost over compensated and made this a playoff team. A true bubble, got popped about two weeks before seasons end. If one were to say a team is bottom 5 goalies, and bottom 8 defense, that sounds like a team that has been eliminated from the playoffs before Valentine's Day. Flyers were in it for about a month longer to almost St. Patty's Day.

The coaching choices/methods were that bad.
 
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hatcher

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With the bad goalies, and bad defense, the forward group still almost over compensated and made this a playoff team. A true bubble, got popped about two weeks before seasons end. If one were to say a team is bottom 5 goalies, and bottom 8 defense, that sounds like a team that has been eliminated from the playoffs before Valentine's Day. Flyers were in it for about a month longer to almost St. Patty's Day.

The coaching choices/methods were that bad.
Forwards got called out by fletcher for playing the wrong way and were a major reason the d looked bad. Forwards are in for it now that we got real coaches that have pull.
 

hatcher

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That was on Gordon's stretch system.
Fletcher called them out for not doing what the coaches wanted. Gordon wanted more forecheck and backcheck and more attack but half the forwards wont do it. Players time is up now so if it isn't looking good the rest are going next off season.
 

deadhead

Registered User
Feb 26, 2014
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Fowards were far more disciplined under Hakstol, just compare TK in 2017-18 with TK the second half of last year.

Hopefully, AV will find the happy medium, using "tough love" to make sure forwards handle their responsibilities (like maintaining gap control and providing outlet targets for the D-men, and getting back on defense), but allowing them to attack the net when the opportunity presents itself instead of cycling around the perimeter.

Of course it helps to dump deadwood, Bailey, Weise, Lehtera, Weal, Hartman, Simmonds, Varone, Knight - 259 games between them last year.
 

Ruck Over

When the revolution comes, pants will do you no gd
Apr 19, 2016
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Fletcher called them out for not doing what the coaches wanted. Gordon wanted more forecheck and backcheck and more attack but half the forwards wont do it. Players time is up now so if it isn't looking good the rest are going next off season.
Your argument may have some merit. However, taking to task what was obviously the Flyers' strength of last season (the forwards) and blaming them for the poor affects of the season appear disingenuous. The thing that was most responsible for us winning, is also the thing most responsible for us losing is not truly mutually exclusive. However, one should be able to see the two statements not fitting together seamlessly.
 
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hatcher

Registered User
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Your argument may have some merit. However, taking to task what was obviously the Flyers' strength of last season (the forwards) and blaming them for the poor affects of the season appear disingenuous. The thing that was most responsible for us winning, is also the thing most responsible for us losing is not truly mutually exclusive. However, one should be able to see the two statements not fitting together seamlessly.
It does go hand in hand with the d though and why we were always down 1 or 2 goals.
 

Beef Invictus

Revolutionary Positivity
Dec 21, 2009
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Fletcher called them out for not doing what the coaches wanted. Gordon wanted more forecheck and backcheck and more attack but half the forwards wont do it. Players time is up now so if it isn't looking good the rest are going next off season.


Dude, just look at them under Hakstol when they played a cohesive defensive system. They supported the defensemen and they were good defensively. Gordon had them trying to run up ice for stretch passes and it constantly left the D alone. Gordon preaching backchecking while preaching play-pushing wasn't compatible with each other.
 

BackToTheBrierePatch

Nope not today.
Feb 19, 2003
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Again that's hindsight. When the rumors were running around that Subban was available, it was pre-Therien becoming an AC. Now, there was a pact, and yada yada yada, but the two were not mutually exclusive.

Of course it’s hindsight. Folks get mad when we dont draft player x in round 3. But all that works both ways. This team has hit on players that other teams passed on.
 
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