Travis Sanheim Discussion Thread Part Two

[Striiker]

I don't know how you can look at those numbers against top competition, see they're perfectly comparable to good dmen facing lesser competition, and proclaim he isn't an advanced stats darling.

Hakstol

 

[baudib1]

I guess he missed the part where he's the 19th-best defenseman in the league.

 

[Magua]

deadhead can't use underlying numbers to show how much Gordon's team is getting outshot/outchanced, and then use raw stats for Sanheim on the top pair under Gordon versus the 3rd pair under Hakstol to prove his point. He knows this; it's misleading. I also don't think anyone expected Sanheim's numbers to not drop from the tippy top in sheltered minutes. It's just a matter of degree. We can only expect them to improve with more competent systems work and experience. This is just the start.

Yet, Sanheim is still break even to slightly positive in basically all the shot/chance statistics relative in his top pair role. His individual isolated contributions, as previously shown, are fantastic. If your argument was that Sanheim cannot handle a higher usage role, with increased linemate quality to match, you got proved flat out wrong (as Hagg's numbers have actually gotten worse since being on the 3rd pair). And -- despite all this talk of finding a RD to pair with Ivan -- no one really has driven play with Provorov, who has flirted with break even to negative his whole career, except when paired with Ghost last season.

 

[Jtown]

Sanheim isn't an advanced stat darling since he started to play with Provorov against top competition.
A short scoring streak doesn't change that.

Under Gordon
Sanheim - Corsi 47.26 SCF/SA/60, 24.7/25.8; HDCF/CA/60, 9.4/10.0
Provorov - Corsi 47.86 SCF/SA/60, 25.6/26.3; HDCF/CA/60, 10.6/9.8

Ghost - Corsi 51.59 SCF/SA/60, 27.1/25.9; HDCF/CA/60, 10.3/9.7
Gudas - Corsi 48.57 SCF/SA/60, 22.5/27.1; HDCF/CA/60, 9.3/9.9
MacDonald - Corsi 47.49 SCF/SA/60, 23.7/26.4; HDCF/CA/60, 10.2/8.9

Myers - Corsi 49.21 SCF/SA/60, 20.8/26.4; HDCF/CA/60, 9.5/12.4

Hagg - Corsi 41.90 SCF/SA/60, 23.0/34.3; HDCF/CA/60, 9.1/14.8

everyone's advanced stats have suffered under gordon

 

[baudib1]

TBF in previous seasons, most of the time Provorov hasn't been with Ghost, he's been with AMac and Hagg.

 

[Striiker]

Provorov-Ghost
Sanheim-Gudas/Myers

IT'S SO f***ING OBVIOUS

IT'S WHAT'S BEST FOR PROVOROV
IT'S WHAT'S BEST FOR GHOST
IT'S WHAT'S BEST FOR SANHEIM
IT'S WHAT'S BEST FOR THIS ENTIRE TEAM
JUST f***ING DO IT

 

[Jtown]

deadhead can't use underlying numbers to show how much Gordon's team is getting outshot/outchanced, and then use raw stats for Sanheim on the top pair under Gordon versus the 3rd pair under Hakstol to prove his point. He knows this; it's misleading. I also don't think anyone expected Sanheim's numbers to not drop from the tippy top in sheltered minutes. It's just a matter of degree. We can only expect them to improve with more competent systems work and experience. This is just the start.

Yet, Sanheim is still break even to slightly positive in basically all the shot/chance statistics relative in his top pair role. His individual isolated contributions, as previously shown, are fantastic. If your argument was that Sanheim cannot handle a higher usage role, with increased linemate quality to match, you got proved flat out wrong (as Hagg's numbers have actually gotten worse since being on the 3rd pair). And -- despite all this talk of finding a RD to pair with Ivan -- no one really has driven play with Provorov, who has flirted with break even to negative his whole career, except when paired with Ghost last season.

exactly,

hence why provorov is an issue going forward. He is an RFA this summer, and what do we do if he wants a nylander type deal or more? he plays that number 1 d role, he was drafted to be our number 1 d, and if you are a casual observer you think he is anumber 1 d but he is not a number 1 at all despite his great even strength points last year .....given the sytem was tilted toward dmen to have great even strength point production.

 

[Striiker]

You don't need him to be a #1D if we have a great overall top 4.

Also, Ghost has proven to be #1D quality when "on" and Sanheim is showing signs he can do so as well.

 

[Jtown]

You don't need him to be a #1D if we have a great overall top 4.

Also, Ghost has proven to be #1D quality when "on" and Sanheim is showing signs he can do so as well.

don't argue with me about it, im not the one playing him like a number 1 dman. Im just telling you how people within the organization and nhl describe him, and that is dangerous.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

So how do we reconcile the lack of "safeness" in Provorov's game with the observations (both eye test and numerically) that he's played his best with Defensemen with more questionable defensive reps?

 

[Striiker]

don't argue with me about it, im not the one playing him like a number 1 dman. Im just telling you how people within the organization and nhl describe him, and that is dangerous.

I was responding to you saying he's a concern going forward.

 

[Magua]

hence why provorov is an issue going forward. He is an RFA this summer, and what do we do if he wants a nylander type deal or more? he plays that number 1 d role, he was drafted to be our number 1 d, and if you are a casual observer you think he is anumber 1 d but he is not a number 1 at all

Well, I didn't say that.

If his agent comes to the table with a comparable deal for a 60 point winger, we have a problem for a different reason. I've said all along, even last year when 8x8 was some hometown discount to some, that I wish he could get a Slavin/Hamilton type deal to more so match his real and future impact. We might just get that.

I'll manage expectations as much as anyone with Ivan, but he's still a damned good player. It's not his fault his expectations were borderline insane.....though now I'm remembering a quote in the summer where he said he was aiming for 20 goals and 70 points. His usage is that of a high-end #1, which he is not (yet). He needs help with his partners to a large extent get to top pair respectability. But he will get better; even if it's not to Doughty-caliber.

 

[Jtown]

Well, I didn't say that.

If his agent comes to the table with a comparable deal for a 60 point winger, we have a problem for a different reason. I've said all along, even last year when 8x8 was some hometown discount to some, that I wish he could get a Slavin/Hamilton type deal to more so match his real and future impact. We might just get that.

I'll manage expectations as much as anyone with Ivan, but he's still a damned good player. It's not his fault his expectations were borderline insane.....though now I'm remembering a quote in the summer where he said he was aiming for 20 goals and 70 points. His usage is that of a high-end #1, which he is not (yet). He needs help with his partners to a large extent get to top pair respectability. But he will get better; even if it's not to Doughty-caliber.

well its the contract that is the issue. Flyers are in the drivers seat if they are smart. They have options, and they have young dmen that are as promising if not more so. Provorov's problem is that he tries to do too much himself, and he isn't good enough at this level to dominate like he did in juniors. He needs to find a partner that he has chemistry with, and that can react to provorov. Sanheim is doing a decent job of that, however sanheim's play is not nearly as aggressive as what it could be , because it feels like sanheim is playing second fiddle to provy.

 

[Magua]

So how do we reconcile the lack of "safeness" in Provorov's game with the observations (both eye test and numerically) that he's played his best with Defensemen with more questionable defensive reps?

By not acknowledging how adventurous he can be. And adventurous =/= bad.

Provorov's problem is that he tries to do too much himself, and he isn't good enough at this level to dominate like he did in juniors. He needs to find a partner that he has chemistry with, and that can react to provorov. Sanheim is doing a decent job of that, however sanheim's play is not nearly as aggressive as what it could be , because it feels like sanheim is playing second fiddle to provy.

Ghost had that last season. They're each so hyper confident that it somehow worked without either playing second fiddle. Then they each were in such a funk early this season neither played second fiddle to the other in sloppiness. I'd still like to see that pairing re-tried, with Sanheim going to his natural left side. He is neither as comfortable on the right, nor at the stage in his confidence where he can rein in Ivan's more (overly) aggressive instincts by pushing play himself.

 

[Striiker]

Speaking of Provorov being overly-aggressive, it’s funny how the people who want to trade Ghost and constantly cry about him turning the puck over or being overly aggressive, never seem to cry about Provorov, who does it at least as much.

Surely that’s just a coincidence and not being blinded by bias.

 

[landsbergfan]

By not acknowledging how adventurous he can be. And adventurous =/= bad.



Ghost had that last season. They're each so hyper confident that it somehow worked without either playing second fiddle. Then they each were in such a funk early this season neither played second fiddle to the other in sloppiness. I'd still like to see that pairing re-tried, with Sanheim going to his natural left side. He is neither as comfortable on the right, nor at the stage in his confidence where he can rein in Ivan's more (overly) aggressive instincts by pushing play himself.

I like Ghost/Myers enough to not worry too much about putting Ghost with Provorov. I think Ghost has more to give too. He needs to be playing better relative to his own standards. I too prefer Sanheim on the left for DZ and NZ, but I have enjoyed watching him in the OZ on the right side. Some of that is due to the fact that he keeps scoring goals, but I think part of the reason for his point surge is playing the right side.

 

[BackToTheBrierePatch]

Provorov-Ghost
Sanheim-Gudas/Myers

IT'S SO ****ING OBVIOUS

IT'S WHAT'S BEST FOR PROVOROV
IT'S WHAT'S BEST FOR GHOST
IT'S WHAT'S BEST FOR SANHEIM
IT'S WHAT'S BEST FOR THIS ENTIRE TEAM
JUST ****ING DO IT

I would prefer Sanheim paired with Myers.
That would be a beastly pairing

Provorov/Ghost
Sanheim/Myers
Morin/Gudas

 

[Magua]

I like Ghost/Myers enough to not worry too much about putting Ghost with Provorov. I think Ghost has more to give too. He needs to be playing better relative to his own standards. I too prefer Sanheim on the left for DZ and NZ, but I have enjoyed watching him in the OZ on the right side. Some of that is due to the fact that he keeps scoring goals, but I think part of the reason for his point surge is playing the right side.

We are fortunate that pretty much any combo of the Big 4 can be plausibly great.

I think if he played similar minutes on the left with one of our better d-men, attached to the top 6 lines, you'd see he has even more puck skills and playmaking to offer, especially when pinching in or activating. It's just a testament to his adaptability he's improving and playing on the top pair while on his off-side. This was the case in the AHL too when Gordon put him on the right. We are lucky enough to have Travo Sandheim's cult leader and soul mate, @Stizzle, who can comment on this.

 

[Striiker]

I really wish Sanheim would get used more with Giroux. Look at this nonsense...

And keep in mind this includes all the PP time Giroux spends with Ghost, who has 222:28 on the PP this year, so they're rarely together at 5v5...

So at 5v5, Ghost and Sanheim aren't playing nearly enough with our best offensive player. Imagine if all that Hagg time went to Sanheim instead.

 

[deadhead]

Flyers are in the Carolina dilemma, they have a bunch of good young defensemen, but they're raw and they struggle to control play.
Carolina finally got impatient, traded Hanifin (and Lindholm) for Hamilton (and Ferland).

But Calgary has Giordano (35) and Brodie (28) and Hamonic (28), so Hanifin doesn't have to carry the load.
Meanwhile, Hamilton, De Haan (28) along with Faulk (26), Slavin (24) and Pesce (24) have improved the Carolina defense - so both adding veterans and letting the kids grow up helped.

So there is something to be said to adding a veteran RHD to stabilize this group and mentor the kids.
Gudas and MacDonald don't "cut the cake."
But you want to be wary about overpaying just to get a veteran.

 

[landsbergfan]

Flyers are in the Carolina dilemma, they have a bunch of good young defensemen, but they're raw and they struggle to control play.
Carolina finally got impatient, traded Hanifin (and Lindholm) for Hamilton (and Ferland).

But Calgary has Giordano (35) and Brodie (28) and Hamonic (28), so Hanifin doesn't have to carry the load.
Meanwhile, Hamilton, De Haan (28) along with Faulk (26), Slavin (24) and Pesce (24) have improved the Carolina defense - so both adding veterans and letting the kids grow up helped.

So there is something to be said to adding a veteran RHD to stabilize this group and mentor the kids.
Gudas and MacDonald don't "cut the cake."
But you want to be wary about overpaying just to get a veteran.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

Flyers are in the Carolina dilemma, they have a bunch of good young defensemen, but they're raw and they struggle to control play.
Carolina finally got impatient, traded Hanifin (and Lindholm) for Hamilton (and Ferland).

But Calgary has Giordano (35) and Brodie (28) and Hamonic (28), so Hanifin doesn't have to carry the load.
Meanwhile, Hamilton, De Haan (28) along with Faulk (26), Slavin (24) and Pesce (24) have improved the Carolina defense - so both adding veterans and letting the kids grow up helped.

So there is something to be said to adding a veteran RHD to stabilize this group and mentor the kids.
Gudas and MacDonald don't "cut the cake."
But you want to be wary about overpaying just to get a veteran.

So is 80 million for karlsson overpaying? Asking for a friend...

 

[Tripod]

Provy's ES points have dropped, but he is still tied for 32nd in the league for D. He is tied with guys like Hamilton and Trouba, and MORE than Pietrangelo, Hedman, etc... And in the last 3 years(since entering the league), Provy is 15th in ES scoring for Dmen:

Burns, EK, Josi, Jones, Hedman, Klingberg, Rielly, Gardiner, Pietrangelo, Hamilton, Keith, Carlsson, Spurgeon, Giordano. Those are the only guys with more ES points since Provy entered the league.

Sanheim is 19th is ES scoring this year, fyi.

What we appear to have with these kids, is a mix of guys who ALL can be the best guy in any given year. And that's a great thing. Get them all locked up long term to great deals, and reep the rewards.

 

[prototypical4thliner]

Provy's ES points have dropped, but he is still tied for 32nd in the league for D. He is tied with guys like Hamilton and Trouba, and MORE than Pietrangelo, Hedman, etc... And in the last 3 years(since entering the league), Provy is 15th in ES scoring for Dmen:

Burns, EK, Josi, Jones, Hedman, Klingberg, Rielly, Gardiner, Pietrangelo, Hamilton, Keith, Carlsson, Spurgeon, Giordano. Those are the only guys with more ES points since Provy entered the league.

Sanheim is 19th is ES scoring this year, fyi.

What we appear to have with these kids, is a mix of guys who ALL can be the best guy in any given year. And that's a great thing. Get them all locked up long term to great deals, and reep the rewards.

With the cap continuing to climb, whichever of them we sign long term it’s very unlikely that after a year or two we are regretting it. For example, ghost. If we are real asses about it and call him a #4 pp specialist, which is ridiculously underselling him, he’s still at market value.

 

[Tripod]

With the cap continuing to climb, whichever of them we sign long term it’s very unlikely that after a year or two we are regretting it. For example, ghost. If we are real asses about it and call him a #4 pp specialist, which is ridiculously underselling him, he’s still at market value.

Agreed. Locking up Provy, Trav and Myers to long term deals in that 4-6 range for all of them should really set us up perfectly because guys like Morin or Hagg(uggh) will never make much money and will be the 1st to be replaced by the next wave of kids coming.