Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals 2019-20 Part VII

[DrSense]

Look at the sens depth and who they have coming he doesnt have a long term future here. Formenton is going to take his role its just a matter of time. The competition for forward spots is about to get very very competitive. He put up some good numbers at the end of a throw away season we have seen that before. I think he will be a useful player next season but i dont see a long term future.

While Belleville depth and emergence of our young forwards last year was great, we are arguably the thinnest organization at forward in the league. Keep in mind Hawrluk is younger than Nick Paul, and only a year older than Balcers and White. The guy has certainly shown enough that he is ahead of a guy like Balcers on the depth chart. Even guys like Chlapik aren't that much younger. We need depth for bottom 6 and Hawrluk can play now, and might better in the future to the point he is a good 3rd liner. Who knows. He'll have to earn his keep beyond next season, no doubt, but same goes for White, Paul and most other forwards. Don't write him off, because he's actually intriguing if you look a little closer at his resume and past production.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Jayce Hawryluk sure isn't getting much respect here. He had seven points in eleven games for the Sens. Small sample size and a bunch of nothing games I know but he looked really good. I can see him as a fixture in our bottom six for years to come. He plays all three forward positions and can move up the lineup when needed.

No Like button. I like him as well. Good bottom 6 guy. Good speed. Good Motor. Hits. Has a little skill. Deserves a shot at a spot. I don't see him holding Formenton out of a spot. He may hold Balcers out of one unless he takes a step and shows improvement out of the gate.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[TheNewEra]

Zaistev makes the most sense in the long run but our RD depth would be non-existent which is probably the justification that will be used to not buy him out (if we get compliance buyouts that is)

 

[DrSense]

Interesting. I actually don't mind hanging on to Zaitsev for a few years as one of our line vets on D, perhaps alongside Boro. There are going to be 4 or 5 kids on D, and we need a few vets. And Zaitsev takes on all the tough minutes mostly. I really liked the way her played this year. Of course, I didn't hate Ceci either.

 

[armani]

I would choose Ryan even though he "only" has 2 years left. Zaitsev as a veteran RD is a need until he isn't - that is we get NHL quality RDs in the system ready to play NHL minutes (whether from the existing pipeline or via UFA/trade route).

 

[Sweatred]

Why do we need to buy out anyone ? We’re not close to a cap team and we prob won’t naturally hit the floor until Ryan expires.

 

[DrSense]

Why do we need to buy out anyone ? We’re not close to a cap team and we prob won’t naturally hit the floor until Ryan expires.

There is talk teams will be given some different flexibility to shed cap / contracts if the cap does go down. If so, Ottawa will have the opportunity to drop a contract or two in some kind of adjusted buy out. We may not need to, but may choose to if it is a one time opportunity without future cap consequences.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

If we even remotely believe in Hogberg, we should try to sign him to a 2-3 year extension right now.

With only 28 NHL games under his belt, we should be able to get him for 2 years in the low 1 million range. Maybe 3 years if we go up closer to 2, and if he is risk adverse.

That would cost control Hogberg for an additional 3-4 years, because he still has 1 year left on his current contract.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Buying out players makes no sense if we are expecting to spend "close to the cap" starting in 21-22. I don't actually believe that, but if I humor it, it makes no sense to buy out players.

We have an abundance of cap space right now, a lot of it will go unused and will expire after the 2021 season. Therefore, from a marginal point of view, our cap space is worth less in the short term than it will be in the long term. So we should keep Ryan on the books and let him expire out rather than pushing chunks of his cash on to the books later on.

This team clearly sees Zaitsev as a top pairing defender. Not a chance they buy him out. Even if they did want to buy him out, it would make more sense to keep him for one more season, leave him unprotected, and hope that Seattle views him as highly as Ottawa did when Ottawa acquired him. At that point, he'll have 3 years left at 4.5 million. So a lot of his term that made the contract so hard for Toronto to move will be gone. If Seattle doesn't take him, then Ottawa could buy him out.

With that said, buying out Zaitsev is pointless from a cap perspective. He has 4 million left in buyout proof bonuses. In the scenario above where the Senators leave him exposed, with a backup plan to buy him out in June 2021, the Senators save almost no cap space. A June 2021 Zaitsev buyout would take up 10.3 million of cap space spread out over 6 years, but then the Senators would have to pay a replacement body 700k+ per season. At that point, they'd be better off sheltering Zaitsev as a #6 defender, where he'd do a MUCH better job than any of the Cody Goloubef's of the world who would replace him.

I think fans want to see Zaitsev bought out, because they think he sucks, and know that in a fantasy world where he is bought out, it prevents DJ Smith from giving him "Ceci minutes".

 

[Sensinitis]

I see Ryan being bought out with one year left on his deal, so probably next summer.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I see Ryan being bought out with one year left on his deal, so probably next summer.

I can see this too. His money goes straight to tkatchuk.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

One thing we haven’t discussed. Any interesting cheap UFAs this off season? I would think there’s an opening in defence for one. And a couple forward spots

 

[Sweatred]

There is talk teams will be given some different flexibility to shed cap / contracts if the cap does go down. If so, Ottawa will have the opportunity to drop a contract or two in some kind of adjusted buy out. We may not need to, but may choose to if it is a one time opportunity without future cap consequences.

I don’t see what it offers Gener or the Sens.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Why do we need to buy out anyone ? We’re not close to a cap team and we prob won’t naturally hit the floor until Ryan expires.

Question the person asking the question if you have questions about the merit,
To me you can precede the question with some circumstance where you are seriously considering buying a player out. I am almost shocked you have not brought Colin White into this discussion. So Assume you are going to buy someone out.. Asking why... You need to ask 6thSens

If we were in a position to buy someone out.. and we are considering Zaitsev when we could have hung on to Ceci for a year and let him walk for nothing tells us something about Zaitsev.

 

[Sweatred]

Question the person asking the question if you have questions about the merit,
To me you can precede the question with some circumstance where you are seriously considering buying a player out. I am almost shocked you have not brought Colin White into this discussion. So Assume you are going to buy someone out.. Asking why... You need to ask 6thSens

If we were in a position to buy someone out.. and we are considering Zaitsev when we could have hung on to Ceci for a year and let him walk for nothing tells us something about Zaitsev.

I didn’t think I was asking you anything ... not sure how (why) you ended up interrupting my question ...? your response had nothing to do with what I was asking .. but thanks?

Since you asked, I don’t see the point in buying out White this year. PD would just waste his $4 million on another crappy player to reach the floor. If White doesn’t develop into a useful player he can be bought out in a few years if he isn’t grabbed by Seattle. I just hope he is forced to earn his ice time vs Bath, Brown, Form, Chap, Norris etc and not just handed premium minutes while putting up sub replacement value.

 

[DrSense]

I don’t see what it offers Gener or the Sens.

Well, if we wanted to take on a bad contract or two as part of a trade a team can't get out from under (some have many), jettisoning Bobby might make sense.

 

[ijif]

I'd be interested in Vince Dunn. His metrics over his career are sparkling. For his role, he really cannot do any more, and he should be able to easily handle harder minutes while still putting up strong/positive metrics.

Over the last three years, looking at defenders that have played at least 3000 minutes, he ranks...

7th in GF% (56.48)
5th in CF% (54.92)
6th in xGF% (55.02)

For relative to team stats...
13th in G+-/60(0.29)
3rd in C+-/60 (6.59)
7th in xG+-/60 (0.26)

For single number stats...
8th in GAR/60 (0.464)
5th in xGAR/60 (0.41)

For RAPM metrics...
18th in G+-/60 (0.125)
15th in xG+-/60 (0.148)
15th in C+-/60 (3.34)

 

[Cosmix]

Buying out players makes no sense if we are expecting to spend "close to the cap" starting in 21-22. I don't actually believe that, but if I humor it, it makes no sense to buy out players.

We have an abundance of cap space right now, a lot of it will go unused and will expire after the 2021 season. Therefore, from a marginal point of view, our cap space is worth less in the short term than it will be in the long term. So we should keep Ryan on the books and let him expire out rather than pushing chunks of his cash on to the books later on.

This team clearly sees Zaitsev as a top pairing defender. Not a chance they buy him out. Even if they did want to buy him out, it would make more sense to keep him for one more season, leave him unprotected, and hope that Seattle views him as highly as Ottawa did when Ottawa acquired him. At that point, he'll have 3 years left at 4.5 million. So a lot of his term that made the contract so hard for Toronto to move will be gone. If Seattle doesn't take him, then Ottawa could buy him out.

With that said, buying out Zaitsev is pointless from a cap perspective. He has 4 million left in buyout proof bonuses. In the scenario above where the Senators leave him exposed, with a backup plan to buy him out in June 2021, the Senators save almost no cap space. A June 2021 Zaitsev buyout would take up 10.3 million of cap space spread out over 6 years, but then the Senators would have to pay a replacement body 700k+ per season. At that point, they'd be better off sheltering Zaitsev as a #6 defender, where he'd do a MUCH better job than any of the Cody Goloubef's of the world who would replace him.

I think fans want to see Zaitsev bought out, because they think he sucks, and know that in a fantasy world where he is bought out, it prevents DJ Smith from giving him "Ceci minutes".

Buying out Zaitsev would be an admittance of failure by Dorion. THAT is not going to happen. Buying out Ryan to save on salary costs would be what I would expect from Melnyk.

 

[Cosmix]

One thing we haven’t discussed. Any interesting cheap UFAs this off season? I would think there’s an opening in defence for one. And a couple forward spots

Currently we have:
NHL: Chabot, Zaitsev, Wolanin, Reilly
UFAs: Borowiecki, Hainsey
RFAs: Englund, Jaros
AHL ELC Contract - Brannstrom, Lajoie

The coaching staff seem to like Hainsey and Borowiecki, so signing them would provide 6 Defencemen.

I suspect they might sign Englund and/or Jaros to be the seventh D if they are cheap.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Buying out Zaitsev would be an admittance of failure by Dorion. THAT is not going to happen. Buying out Ryan to save on salary costs would be what I would expect from Melnyk.

Ryan has bonuses which lead to there being almost no buyout savings. Combine that with having to pay an additional roster player, and there are no savings at all.

The only reason to buyout Ryan would be a political one. No, I'm not referring to people complaining about his old Twitter account. I mean, earlier in the year there were apparently issues with his play. If they wanted to send a message that nobody gets away with that kind of play, regardless of name value/salary, that would be a reason to buy him out. (Obviously, it has since come out that he has had other issues, which he got help for. So maybe, that was part of his decline in play.)

Also, Dorion has bought out his mistakes before. He bought out Burrows. He traded Condon and Hammond. His predecessor traded all his mistakes for Phaneuf, who Dorion then traded for Gaborik.

 

[Sensung]

Well, if we wanted to take on a bad contract or two as part of a trade a team can't get out from under (some have many), jettisoning Bobby might make sense.

Any proposal that sees Eugene spend money is dubious, at best.

Give up assets to spend below the cap and have insurance pay and/or other team pay bonuses...sign Euge up.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

A major downside of a June draft for the Senators, would be that it will make it more difficult to move our picks for young NHL players.

I assume we planned to trade some of those 8 picks in the first three rounds in exchange for players who can fit in on our roster, and are cap casualties on their previous teams. Those trades become more complicated to make if we cannot do them at the draft. Even know we will have 8 prospects that we took with those picks, there is no guarantee that whoever we take at say 33 is the same player a team we're trading with would have valued at 33. It will make trading really inefficient.

 

[Crosside]

A major downside of a June draft for the Senators, would be that it will make it more difficult to move our picks for young NHL players.

I assume we planned to trade some of those 8 picks in the first three rounds in exchange for players who can fit in on our roster, and are cap casualties on their previous teams. Those trades become more complicated to make if we cannot do them at the draft. Even know we will have 8 prospects that we took with those picks, there is no guarantee that whoever we take at say 33 is the same player a team we're trading with would have valued at 33. It will make trading really inefficient.

Maybe have trade secret with the team. I pick your player you want and when we allowed to trade, we trade this prospect + vs the player we want

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Maybe have trade secret with the team. I pick your player you want and when we allowed to trade, we trade this prospect + vs the player we want

It would be possible to do trades this way, but it would take a lot of trust because we'd have to select their players with our picks, and if they go back on their word and don't complete the trade call after the season, then we are stuck with those players.

The NHL could allow teams to trade players for the upcoming season while remaining on their current team to finish the 2020 season, and keep it undisclosed, but I'd imagine it would probably leak anyways. So, at that point wouldn't teams rather tell the players before hand? In which case, there would an awkward dynamic where a player is closing out the season on a team that has already moved on from them.