Proposal: Trade Rumours/Proposals 2019-20 Part VII

[ijif]

Lol, pretty much. But just like baseball fans used to say "He has a good eye", that didn't mean Moneyball was adhered to. You need to quantify the impact to appreciate it.

For many years, WAR/GAR models have taken into account penalty differential.

 

[danielpalfredsson]

Duchene doesn’t want to be here. Not realistic at all. Pass

He doesn't have any trade protection.

He is signed to a team friendly contract, assuming a team still views him as something close to what he was prior to leaving Ottawa.

He also publicly commented on being relieved at not being moved at the deadline. While there weren't heavy rumors, and he didn't seriously seem to think it was very likely he would be trade, the fact that he was even relieved makes me think that maybe there might have been a possibility, even if it was a minor one.

Since their coaching change, he has not been used in a top role. He's making 8 million in cap, and we're about to see a flat cap for many years. Nashville isn't against the wall with the cap, but moving one of their centers will give them some much needed flexibility when things clearly aren't working down the middle. Nobody will take Turris from them. So they'd benefit from moving one of Duchene or Johansen.

They have to consider that even if they aren't up against the wall this season, the cap isn't going up for a few years, and another bad season from Duchene will make it considerably more difficult to move him. It's a similar spot to the one they were in with Subban, where they moved his big cap hit for what was thought to be a soft return, but if they waited one more year, that return wouldn't have even been on the table.

Duchene has some signing bonuses, so the Senators and Predators could do a deal after July 1st. While the Senators would traditionally pay more for this, they'd have leverage, because there aren't going to be a lot of takers for Duchene right now. The cap is too restrictive for most teams to take that risk. If they acquire Duchene with his bonus paid, all of a sudden, he's only owed an average of 6.83 million for 6 more seasons. (3/10/8/9/6/5). His bonus structure would probably be one of the only issues for Ottawa, but really, it's not that much more than Bobby Ryan's bonus structure.

Duchene was Dorion's white whale when he first took over as GM. We consider ourselves to be on a trajectory to contend by 2021-22. So if he can get the guy back on an affordable contract, for basically what we got for him at the 2019 deadline, and call it a wash, I can't see how he doesn't do it. Am I suggesting I'd want us to do it? Not exactly. While it is a bold prediction, I don't think it is all that farfetched.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

I'd rather go after Ryan Nugent Hopkins.

I like Duchene, a lot. But that ship has sailed. If we get Lafreniere, sure, I would look into it. Duchene needs to be carried. To be a contender, Duchene needs to be the 2nd best player on his line.

Lafreniere-Duchene-Raymond
Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson

Could make real damage. Duchene can carry those two and bring out the best of them in a leadership role until they are ready to carry him in 2-3 years. With that being said, Duchene will be 33 then, will he still be as effective? For how long?

 

[danielpalfredsson]

I'd rather go after Ryan Nugent Hopkins.

I like Duchene, a lot. But that ship has sailed. If we get Lafreniere, sure, I would look into it. Duchene needs to be carried. To be a contender, Duchene needs to be the 2nd best player on his line.

Lafreniere-Duchene-Raymond
Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson

Could make real damage. Duchene can carry those two and bring out the best of them in a leadership role until they are ready to carry him in 2-3 years. With that being said, Duchene will be 33 then, will he still be as effective? For how long?

RNH only has 1 year left on his contract, so he'd be a rental. If he'd sign here as a UFA, sure, that'd be great. But I don't think us signing a big UFA is very likely.

 

[DrSense]

For many years, WAR/GAR models have taken into account penalty differential.

It has been, but includes GF:60/GA:60 and a bunch of other stuff. I still like those models though, I just think the blended average makes it difficult to come up with a Money Puck model based on specific data points such as Money Ball.

 

[ijif]

It has been, but includes GF:60/GA:60 and a bunch of other stuff. I still like those models though, I just think the blended average makes it difficult to come up with a Money Puck model based on specific data points such as Money Ball.

Every model I have seen shows each component, so you can easily see how much value a player adds through penalty differentials. It is just one way a player can add value. It is not something to build a Money Puck model around.

 

[DrSense]

Every model I have seen shows each component, so you can easily see how much value a player adds through penalty differentials. It is just one way a player can add value. It is not something to build a Money Puck model around.

So the idea of putting more emphasis on penalty differential is not something to build around? I think you're missing my point - likely my fault - which is you need to come up with a unique approach not currently measured by other teams exclusively. Money Ball was about an approach that put extra weight on a very particular variable - walks (balls, basically). But even before Money Ball, "On base %" had been used as part of evaluating players forever, so walks were always considered by teams, they were just never given as much weight. If you really want to put a more direct emphasis on puck possession and net powerplays, put more weight on penalty differential as your base line metric.

So more specifically, using GAR /WAR from this season, Jack Eichal wasn't in the top 20. Neither was Tkachuk, or Marchand (I'm actually not sure where Nick Paul ranks in those metrics, but that would be interesting to see if you know where to find it). What I'm saying is to put more emphasis on those players and ranked them higher in your priority model by weighting net penalties more, because while their GAR/WAR was influenced by penalty differential, it's importance was not prioritized enough.

But even more importantly, GAR/WAR are easily accessible to every team, so using them as some unique analytical approach as part of a Money Puck model doesn't make sense if everyone has the same data. Some teams might prioritize it more in their personnel decisions, but you won't have differentiated your team in any major way.

Hopefully that makes more sense.

One chart I really do like though, is player contract on the vertical access, and GAR on the horizontal. Makes you better understand your value players for sure.

 

[ijif]

So the idea of putting more emphasis on penalty differential is not something to build around? I think you're missing my point - likely my fault - which is you need to come up with a unique approach not currently measured by other teams exclusively. Money Ball was about an approach that put extra weight on a very particular variable - walks (balls, basically). But even before Money Ball, "On base %" had been used as part of evaluating players forever, so walks were always considered by teams, they were just never given as much weight. If you really want to put a more direct emphasis on puck possession and net powerplays, put more weight on penalty differential as your base line metric.

So more specifically, using GAR /WAR from this season, Jack Eichal wasn't in the top 20. Neither was Tkachuk, or Marchand (I'm actually not sure where Nick Paul ranks in those metrics, but that would be interesting to see if you know where to find it). What I'm saying is to put more emphasis on those players and ranked them higher in your priority model by weighting net penalties more, because while their GAR/WAR was influenced by penalty differential, it's importance was not prioritized enough.

But even more importantly, GAR/WAR are easily accessible to every team, so using them as some unique analytical approach as part of a Money Puck model doesn't make sense if everyone has the same data. Some teams might prioritize it more in their personnel decisions, but you won't have differentiated your team in any major way.

Hopefully that makes more sense.

One chart I really do like though, is player contract on the vertical access, and GAR on the horizontal. Makes you better understand your value players for sure.

According to Evolving-Hockey, Brad Marchand was 5th in GAR this year. Eichel was 15th. Brady Tkachuk should be nowhere near a top 20 list. All three were top 20 in terms of value-added through penalty differential. Nick Paul does add solid value through penalty differentials, but it is nothing crazy.

Not every WAR/GAR model is the same, and although they are available, are teams really using them? Anyway, I understand your overall point.

 

[DrSense]

According to Evolving-Hockey, Brad Marchand was 5th in GAR this year. Eichel was 15th. Brady Tkachuk should be nowhere near a top 20 list. All three were top 20 in terms of value-added through penalty differential. Nick Paul does add solid value through penalty differentials, but it is nothing crazy.

Not every WAR/GAR model is the same, and although they are available, are teams really using them? Anyway, I understand your overall point.

I hear you. But where do you get your rankings? The rankings I looked at were different.

And I think your note on both Tkachuk and Nick Paul are examples of exactly what I mean.

 

[ijif]

I hear you. But where do you get your rankings? The rankings I looked at were different.

And I think your note on both Tkachuk and Nick Paul are examples of exactly what I mean.

I use Evolving-Hockey's model. You have to pay 5$ to see their numbers and charts. It used to be free, but I just paid a couple of days ago.
Here is what our team's graph looks like in terms of xGAR

 

[Sweatred]

I use Evolving-Hockey's model. You have to pay 5$ to see their numbers and charts. It used to be free, but I just paid a couple of days ago.
Here is what our team's graph looks like in terms of xGAR

View attachment 342814

Interesting ... but is that data a year old ?

 

[ijif]

Interesting ... but is that data a year old ?

The data is from the 19-20 season (minimum 500 minutes played)

 

[Sweatred]

The data is from the 19-20 season (minimum 500 minutes played)

Thanks - that’s a neat way to compare players games. Paul looks to be an effective “two way” player vs White if I’m reading it properly.

 

[JungleBeat]

He doesn't have any trade protection.

He is signed to a team friendly contract, assuming a team still views him as something close to what he was prior to leaving Ottawa.

He also publicly commented on being relieved at not being moved at the deadline. While there weren't heavy rumors, and he didn't seriously seem to think it was very likely he would be trade, the fact that he was even relieved makes me think that maybe there might have been a possibility, even if it was a minor one.

Since their coaching change, he has not been used in a top role. He's making 8 million in cap, and we're about to see a flat cap for many years. Nashville isn't against the wall with the cap, but moving one of their centers will give them some much needed flexibility when things clearly aren't working down the middle. Nobody will take Turris from them. So they'd benefit from moving one of Duchene or Johansen.

They have to consider that even if they aren't up against the wall this season, the cap isn't going up for a few years, and another bad season from Duchene will make it considerably more difficult to move him. It's a similar spot to the one they were in with Subban, where they moved his big cap hit for what was thought to be a soft return, but if they waited one more year, that return wouldn't have even been on the table.

Duchene has some signing bonuses, so the Senators and Predators could do a deal after July 1st. While the Senators would traditionally pay more for this, they'd have leverage, because there aren't going to be a lot of takers for Duchene right now. The cap is too restrictive for most teams to take that risk. If they acquire Duchene with his bonus paid, all of a sudden, he's only owed an average of 6.83 million for 6 more seasons. (3/10/8/9/6/5). His bonus structure would probably be one of the only issues for Ottawa, but really, it's not that much more than Bobby Ryan's bonus structure.

Duchene was Dorion's white whale when he first took over as GM. We consider ourselves to be on a trajectory to contend by 2021-22. So if he can get the guy back on an affordable contract, for basically what we got for him at the 2019 deadline, and call it a wash, I can't see how he doesn't do it. Am I suggesting I'd want us to do it? Not exactly. While it is a bold prediction, I don't think it is all that farfetched.

Dorion will not circle back and get Duchene after what happened. Unrealistic.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

Dorion will not circle back and get Duchene after what happened. Unrealistic.

I disagree. I don’t see it happening but I don’t see why they wouldn’t want him. Couple of reasons: he wouldn’t be that expensive to acquire IMO, he has no control of where he ends up if he’s traded, and his contract is actually very reasonable if this year was just an off year for him. Ottawa’s been the best place for Duchene in his career so far. I would trade for him in a heartbeat.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

acquire sergachev, draft twice in the top 5 and watch a perennial powerhouse form.

This team is missing a guy like Sergachev/Parayko. Most would assume this would be to get a partner for Chabot, but I'd actually pair either of those guys with Brannstrom. Chabot will play with Zub for now, and JBD when he's ready.

What do you think it'd take to get those guys? Both teams are in a huge cap crunch, and that kind of move is the one we would need to make. Considering we could just offer sheet Sergachev to a 7.5M contract that Tampa can't match, it'd say his trade value is a little bit more than a 1st+2nd+3rd.

I'd offer them:

Lassi Thomson
Mike Reilly @50% retained
NYI 1st
DAL 2nd

for

Sergachev
Raddysh

Let's say we pick 2 and 3, next season would look like:

Tkachuk-Byfield-Norris
Duclair-Brown-Batherson
Balcers-White-C. Brown
Formenton-Chlapik-Raddysh
Paul

Chabot-Zub
Brannstrom-Sergachev
Wolanin-Boro/Zaitsev

Stutzle to replace Duclair in 21-22

JBD to replace Zub in 1-2 years

Pinto to replace White in 1-2 years who moves to RW.

Replenish pool with the other 2nds

 

[JD1]

This team is missing a guy like Sergachev/Parayko. Most would assume this would be to get a partner for Chabot, but I'd actually pair either of those guys with Brannstrom. Chabot will play with Zub for now, and JBD when he's ready.

What do you think it'd take to get those guys? Both teams are in a huge cap crunch, and that kind of move is the one we would need to make. Considering we could just offer sheet Sergachev to a 7.5M contract that Tampa can't match, it'd say his trade value is a little bit more than a 1st+2nd+3rd.

I'd offer them:

Lassi Thomson
Mike Reilly @50% retained
NYI 1st
DAL 2nd

for

Sergachev
Raddysh

Let's say we pick 2 and 3, next season would look like:

Tkachuk-Byfield-Norris
Duclair-Brown-Batherson
Balcers-White-C. Brown
Formenton-Chlapik-Raddysh
Paul

Chabot-Zub
Brannstrom-Sergachev
Wolanin-Boro/Zaitsev

Stutzle to replace Duclair in 21-22

JBD to replace Zub in 1-2 years

Pinto to replace White in 1-2 years who moves to RW.

Replenish pool with the other 2nds

That roster might make the playoffs

 

[DrSense]

This team is missing a guy like Sergachev/Parayko. Most would assume this would be to get a partner for Chabot, but I'd actually pair either of those guys with Brannstrom. Chabot will play with Zub for now, and JBD when he's ready.

What do you think it'd take to get those guys? Both teams are in a huge cap crunch, and that kind of move is the one we would need to make. Considering we could just offer sheet Sergachev to a 7.5M contract that Tampa can't match, it'd say his trade value is a little bit more than a 1st+2nd+3rd.

I'd offer them:

Lassi Thomson
Mike Reilly @50% retained
NYI 1st
DAL 2nd

for

Sergachev
Raddysh

Let's say we pick 2 and 3, next season would look like:

Tkachuk-Byfield-Norris
Duclair-Brown-Batherson
Balcers-White-C. Brown
Formenton-Chlapik-Raddysh
Paul

Chabot-Zub
Brannstrom-Sergachev
Wolanin-Boro/Zaitsev

Stutzle to replace Duclair in 21-22

JBD to replace Zub in 1-2 years

Pinto to replace White in 1-2 years who moves to RW.

Replenish pool with the other 2nds

Both are the type of players we'd go after, although Parayko is unlikely. He is a future Norris Trophy contender, and the folks in St. Louis know this better than anyone anywhere else. Likely a different D to go after there, like Dunn. But if St. Louis would trade Parayko, obviously I'd hope we'd be at the front of the line. Same for Sergachev. I just don't see a cap team moving a 21 year old D because of cap issues. They control Sergachev for many more years. But if they did, again, hopefully the Sens would step up.

I do think out best time to make a move though will be next year in advance of the exansion draft, but that all depends on what happens with the cap. This summer might be a good time to make a move on some of these cap crunched teams.

And I really don't see putting in Byfield instead of Norris or Tierney next year and I don't think we can go into a season with those four unproven centers, but obviously love the look of that team long-term.

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

This team is missing a guy like Sergachev/Parayko. Most would assume this would be to get a partner for Chabot, but I'd actually pair either of those guys with Brannstrom. Chabot will play with Zub for now, and JBD when he's ready.

What do you think it'd take to get those guys? Both teams are in a huge cap crunch, and that kind of move is the one we would need to make. Considering we could just offer sheet Sergachev to a 7.5M contract that Tampa can't match, it'd say his trade value is a little bit more than a 1st+2nd+3rd.

I'd offer them:

Lassi Thomson
Mike Reilly @50% retained
NYI 1st
DAL 2nd

for

Sergachev
Raddysh

Let's say we pick 2 and 3, next season would look like:

Tkachuk-Byfield-Norris
Duclair-Brown-Batherson
Balcers-White-C. Brown
Formenton-Chlapik-Raddysh
Paul

Chabot-Zub
Brannstrom-Sergachev
Wolanin-Boro/Zaitsev

Stutzle to replace Duclair in 21-22

JBD to replace Zub in 1-2 years

Pinto to replace White in 1-2 years who moves to RW.

Replenish pool with the other 2nds

I rather just offer sheet Sergachev tbh since it's technically cheaper than the offer your proposed. 1st, 2nd and 3rd isn't much for a player of his caliber and the draft we have set up this year.

Other then that I love the roster make up. Having Tkachuk, Byfield, Norris, Stutzle, Brown and Batherson in the top 6 would be a dream (along with Chabot, Brannstrom, JBD, Sergachev, Wolanin on D)

 

[Sweatred]

I rather just offer sheet Sergachev tbh since it's technically cheaper than the offer your proposed. 1st, 2nd and 3rd isn't much for a player of his caliber and the draft we have set up this year.

Other then that I love the roster make up. Having Tkachuk, Byfield, Norris, Stutzle, Brown and Batherson in the top 6 would be a dream (along with Chabot, Brannstrom, JBD, Sergachev, Wolanin on D)

I agree - the rich NHL owners have succeeding in creating an environment where UFA signings are “accepted” and RFA/Offer sheet signings are “discouraged”.

It’s time for Ottawa to utilize an offer sheet totheir advantage. Teams are happy to pluck 28 year old Stone or EK from us and probably a 26 year old Byfield. No reason for us not to go after 22-23 year old players.

 

[KnuckChuckinTkachuk]

Both are the type of players we'd go after, although Parayko is unlikely. He is a future Norris Trophy contender, and the folks in St. Louis know this better than anyone anywhere else. Likely a different D to go after there, like Dunn. But if St. Louis would trade Parayko, obviously I'd hope we'd be at the front of the line. Same for Sergachev. I just don't see a cap team moving a 21 year old D because of cap issues. They control Sergachev for many more years. But if they did, again, hopefully the Sens would step up.

I do think out best time to make a move though will be next year in advance of the exansion draft, but that all depends on what happens with the cap. This summer might be a good time to make a move on some of these cap crunched teams.

And I really don't see putting in Byfield instead of Norris or Tierney next year and I don't think we can go into a season with those four unproven centers, but obviously love the look of that team long-term.

Tampa Bay have only 10mil in cap space next year and they still have to sign Cirelli and Sergachev (while only having 3 D signed - Hedman, McDonagh and Coburn).

So basically they need to find/sign/promote 2 forwards and 3-4 D with 10mil. Ideally they would just trade Killorn and/or Johnson but they may be hard to move. If they struggle to shuffle their roster and make room, that's when you strike with an offer sheet (TBL also don't have a 1st next year so Ottawa's could be extra enticing)

 

[HSF]

i don't think tampa will move serge

can see other guys being moved out like Johnson

 

[beaniewong]

Is Tyler Johnson a bad pickup though? we could probably get him in a nice package and he can play up and down the lineup until the prospects are really ready to take over, guy is a good playoff player as well

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

I rather just offer sheet Sergachev tbh since it's technically cheaper than the offer your proposed. 1st, 2nd and 3rd isn't much for a player of his caliber and the draft we have set up this year.

Other then that I love the roster make up. Having Tkachuk, Byfield, Norris, Stutzle, Brown and Batherson in the top 6 would be a dream (along with Chabot, Brannstrom, JBD, Sergachev, Wolanin on D)

Putting out an offer sheet when the compensation will be a first rounder + is a really bad move when you're a lotto team for the next couple of years.

Sergachev is not worth a top 5 pick, in my opinion.

 

[TkachukNorris79]

I've been teetering on the idea of an offer sheet. It definitely makes sense. I just worry about the whole Duchene situation again. I think an offer sheet is a decent option if the 1st is between 10-20. But giving up another top 10 would hurt.

I was against trading an unknown 1st in the Duchene trade and will always be.

I think we have enough pieces to just do it now while keeping our pick.

If miraculously we got Lafreniere and Byfield, and signed someone like Hall, then I'd consider an offer sheet.

But we all know that's not happening.