I could see him choosing Montreal if Bergevin really showed he wanted him and backed it up with an offer he couldn't refuse. But I doubt Bergevin will do that, as Gainey did with Cammalleri.
In my book, Cammalleri's a little better than Skinner, so 8.7 is too much. But 5 years 7.5 million would be a good investment imo. It seems high, but that little bit extra offense would do us a world of good. Plus Skinner is still in his prime. We'd get him for ages 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32. Would be great for KK, Poehling or Domi to be able to play with someone who really knows how to finish.
Problem with UFA is you have to overpay in both term and AAV with top talent. It's reality. Some teams will stick to their guns at trying to find a fit where the deal is team friendly and works for the player. But that means the desperate GM's willing to take a gamble and overpay end up with the player in the end (most times).
What would be the max I would offer Skinner? Tough one to judge. I rather tell him we are extremely interested and ask him if he would consider Montreal (step 1). Then I tell him we will potentially match the best offer you can get and we will up the offer by giving him lots of bonus money in July. So without even telling him a number, my internal number of AAV would be $7M ish. If he circles back and wants $7.5M for 7 years, I still might do it. If you are afraid to overpay slightly, you will be left behind in the UFA sweepstakes... Example: Radulov.
I'm not afraid of going after skilled players who can skate. But going after gritty players with so so skill and so so skating is risky. Go after skill and skating and the risks of the player not working out on your roster is less risky IMO. Skinner fits. So does Duchene.
The critical thing to factor in the overall formula is trying to figure out what the cap inflation will be and what happens if we run into cap trouble in 2 or 3 seasons when the youth performs to a level where multiple players want substantial raises. If you over pay today for a UFA player, what is the back-up plan if we have a cap that does not increase like we think it will?
The one thing we have going well for us is Domi and I think players like Skinner might want to play with him. Add that we still have vets like Price, Weber, Gallagher, Petry and a top prospect pool, our situation might change for several players who might consider playing in Montreal.