Leafs can offer him that, but no STL reasonable offer will be declined imo.
I think it's 60-40 in favour of STL.
We will make the cap work, we will always do.
For most, I think "reasonable" would be something like a 4-5 year full NMC, with 2-4 years of a short list of teams he can be traded to.
That being said, from reading the article on the athletic, I don't believe any offer that doesn't have full NMC for the duration is going to be considered/accepted.
I also have to wonder --
what is a reasonable number for AP on say, a 7-year deal?
There have been media people, as well as posters on this board who go as far as saying he's a "Lock top 5 defenceman in the league"; more who say he's a top 10. This year he got 2nd team all-star which would imply that he likely ended up 4th in Norris voting... but one has to wonder if part of that is simply due to the fact that he's talked about so much as an impending UFA.
Something to consider for AP... in the last 5 seasons, he's played a minimum of 70 games. His rankings in Norris and end-of-year All Star Voting have been:
15-16: Norris N/R, All Star T-21
16-17: Norris 16th, All Star 17th
17-18: Norris 9th, All Star 10th
18-19: Norris N/R, All Star T-19th
19-20: Presumably 4th in both Categories
It may also be worth considering the defencemen who ranked ahead of him in Norris voting over the last few years, but are either his same age or younger.
This year, you had Hedman, Carlson & Josi.
In 18-19, you had Hedman, Carlson, Josi, Rielly, McDonagh, Jones, Ekholm, Muzzin, Spurgeon, OEL, Hamlton, Karlsson
In 17-18, you had Doughty, Subban, Jones, Carlson, Klingberg, & Josi all ahead of him.
In 16-17, you had Karlsson, Hedman, Doughty, Hamilton, Schultz, Josi, Spurgeon, Krug, with McDonagh & Jones just below him.
In 15-16, you had Doughty, Karlsson, Josi, Klingberg, Hedman, OEL, Subban, McDonagh, Ekblad.
Now, he does have to get points for consistency -- he's never been a finalist for the award, but he's ranked 4th 9 years ago, 7 years ago, and presumably this year as well. He consistently "hangs around" this list; and he's been a quality #1 defenceman for the vast majority of his 10 years in the league.
Looking forward, these are the contemporaries you've gotta rank Pietrangelo within. Giordano, Burns, Suter, Weber, Subban are all on the decline IMO. It's worth noting that in that 4 year sample, the only players over the age of 31 to rank in the top 10 for Norris votes are Giordano (Twice), Burns (Twice), Keith (Once), Suter (Once). That's 6 out of 40 spots. This is a young-guy's game.
So where does he rank? Hedman, Carlson & Josi are non-debatable, and they're the same age / a year younger. I think you give the edge to Karlsson & Doughty, even though they didn't have the best years - just based on their track record. Looking to the future, you have to like Dougie Hamilton & Seth Jones on a go forward basis. An argument can be made for John Klingberg, OEL, and Morgan Rielly, and I think McDonagh is probably the guy you say is the perfect comparable. I think it puts him comfortably in the "top 10" definition for now. Looking longer term, you have the likes of Rasmus Dahlin, Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Miro Heiskanen, Zach Werenski, Thomas Chabot, Aaron Ekblad.
The nice thing about this list, is that quite a few guys have signed contracts recently. You look at these guys, and what they have remaining on their deals:
Josi (30) -- 1 year in, 7 years left at $9.06m, full NMC, but minimal buyout protection.
Carlson (30) -- 2 years in, 6 years left at $8m. Minimal NTC protection, some buyout protection
Doughty (30) - 1 year in, 7 years left at $11m. Strong NTC but not full, no buyout protection, no frontloading.
Karlsson (30) - 1 year in, 7 years left at $11.5m. Full NMC, substantial buyout protection.
McDonagh (31) - 1 year in, 6 years left at $6.75m. Full NTC until the last year, no bonuses, but some frontloading.
If St. Louis is offering the rumored $8m x 8 years with some, but not full trade protection, that sounds like it's right on the money for Alex Pietrangelo. All these contracts were signed in cap-rising environments, which ended up having the first year the same as what we have today (except for Carlson). An 8-year contract will carry him a to a year older than Josi, Doughty, Karlsson, and McDonagh, 2 years older than Carlson.
If he ends up having to look at a 7-year deal, he'll be taking on the exact same term as Josi, Doughty, Karlsson. I think $8.5m is probably a reasonably justifiable amount on a 7-year term with something to the tune of "Standard" trade protection.
If I'm Kyle Dubas, obviously the offer is going to contain a full NMC for all 7 years and whatever frontloading/backloading/bonus structure that Pietrangelo's team thinks is best for them / is CBA-compliant.... but that should be accompanied by a drop in AAV (as we saw with McDonagh).
When he did the deal with Tavares, he didn't really have the leverage, as the Leafs were swimming in cap space. When he did the deals with Matthews & Marner, they simply said "well look at what Johnny got and we deserve the same as we're your franchise players". I would hope that when approaching Pietrangelo, it's a much more frank conversation in that wanting to do a $8m x 7 or $7.5m x 7 deal is not a slight against AP or what he brings to the team; but simply a reality of what they can afford to spend without having to seriously consider trading Marner in a cap-flat environment for the next few years.
I also wonder -- if the rumors are true that they cannot get past the structure of the deal to even talk about an AAV -- would the Blues allow him to speak to other teams pre-UFA, and negotiate 8-year deals with them in exchange for some form of compensation.
IIRC, the ability to offer an 8-year deal goes away on October 7th.
