OT: The OT Thread Part 5: New HF Talk

[Drivesaitl]

Equating the effects of Coronavirus to the flu is misleading. There is no known cure to the evolving coronavirus and humans have no built up immunity to such infection which is a recently mutated cross species infection now impacting humans. Nor do vaccines presently exist.

If people read on further in basically any scientific analysis the reason that flu vs Coronavirus casualties would be what they presently are is that the new coronavirus strain that has just mutated to allow infection from human to human is NEW. We're only seeing the start of the impact thus far. Alarm occurs because of how sick people are getting, how quickly and basically every self report of people that have had this is that the effects are far worse than any flu they've had. FAR WORSE. These are the self reports from infected thus far. The ones that have survived to talk about it. Or the ones that have seen loved ones basically drop on the ground into a fetal position quickly requiring ambulance and hospitalization. These indications of the effects of this coronavirus are now commonplace. That its effects are extreme.

The per patient lethality of the present coronavirus, and past coranavirus is much more pronounced than the usual common flu. Per patients infected a greater proportion die. This is what causes the alarm with all Coronavirus just as it did with Sars, Mers, Ebola. When any infection is so severe that it causes around 10 percent of infected to die of course it becomes very feared.

Now having said all that if you erased all the human past built immunity to influenza variants, if you removed all past infections, if you removed all past vaccines, if you removed all known methods and attempts at treatment, if you removed similarity from other past variants, then they would be comparable.

The one saving grace is that the present coronavirus does not reportedly produce a lot of sneezing and such forceful propellants. Its not as pronounced in that regard. Infections that feature pronounced coughing and producing phlegm and sneezing and nasal drip are more easily contagious.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Shorter analysis. Infections that are very severe strain resources and hospitals and medical preparedness more in outbreak regions because of the degree to which people require immediate hospitalization and or die. Whens the last time you heard about a massive hospital undertaking being built to treat patients of a standard flu? Coronavirus, Ebola, etc those cause greater initial concern and prevention due to the sheer lethality and impacts if these diseases are allowed to spread unchecked. In a recent year 1.7% of flu patients even required hospital visits. Far less required hospitalization. Far less per patient died of it. With Coronavirus hospitalization rates are severe, death rates range around 10% of patients infected. That's not like contracting influenza, its like Russian roulette. THAT is the difference.

 

[doulos]

I am not worried at all. But if that's what gets you going this morning then have at it.

 

[Ol' Jase]

Shorter analysis. Infections that are very severe strain resources and hospitals and medical preparedness more in outbreak regions because of the degree to which people require immediate hospitalization and or die. Whens the last time you heard about a massive hospital undertaking being built to treat patients of a standard flu? Coronavirus, Ebola, etc those cause greater initial concern and prevention due to the sheer lethality and impacts if these diseases are allowed to spread unchecked. In a recent year 1.7% of flu patients even required hospital visits. Far less required hospitalization. Far less per patient died of it. With Coronavirus hospitalization rates are severe, death rates range around 10% of patients infected. That's not like contracting influenza, its like Russian roulette. THAT is the difference.

3000+ confirmed cases, 81 deaths.

That’s not remotely close to 10%.

The panic of this virus is akin to any other day of the viral infections coming out of China in recent times. Let’s see what actually transpires before proclaiming Coronavirus to be in the same ball back as Ebola.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I am not worried at all. But if that's what gets you going this morning then have at it.

My posts in the thread serve as public information regarding a pandemic in an OT thread. Your replies are serving nothing, and giving no content.

Worse, your first foray into the topic was flippant, disregarded the suffering, and suggested that there is no valid concern. That its all just over reaction. This is already tracking worse than Sars virus.

 

[Drivesaitl]

3000+ confirmed cases, 81 deaths.

That’s not remotely close to 10%.

The panic of this virus is akin to any other day of the viral infections coming out of China in recent times. Let’s see what actually transpires before proclaiming Coronavirus to be in the same ball back as Ebola.

The 81 is the official count thus far. As several sources are noting those dying at home or that haven't been found yet of course are not tabulated. Given that people are being advised to stay indoors, at home, and not go out much, and that the onset symptoms of this disease are severe (for instance like Severe acute respiratory symdrome) they preclude people that are shut in, or living on their own from seeking help. The entire service delivery system in Wuhan is exhausted. They don't even have responder resources to check people and as countless sources have mentioned all the emergency lines ring busy all the time. People in need are not being able to contact any emergency services.

Next, and I didn't want to mention this, but this is obviously China, a county that is not regularly foremost about details. Many sources are citing (even the public health officials working on cases) are stating resolutely that fatality numbers are being disguised thus far by classing them as some other thing. Like Viral Pneumonia. There is also a lack of testing kits to differentiate.

Sars virus tracked around 10% fatality. This is a known. This is a similar virus that seems even more virulent as the early numbers are showing that patient numbers will clearly exceed that of Sars. I mean its half way in just a few weeks. Sars tracked for around 6mths. A lot of questioning exists as you probably know around the Chinese reporting of this pandemic.

In anycase I'm bringing this information forward in an OT thread. I see nothing wrong with making that effort.

Heres another source today ringing alarm. Pretty much what I said yesterday, that the Chinese attempts at containment have failed.

Scientist who simulated the global impact of a coronavirus outbreak says ‘ the cat’s already out of the bag’ and calls China’s efforts to contain the disease ‘unlikely to be effective’

Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say - STAT

Its a real concern, and all scientific models I'm seeing are tracking this as a considerable pandemic. So preparation could/should already be occurring. Several criticisms that WHO is late responding on this.

 

[Ol' Jase]

The 81 is the official count thus far. As several sources are noting those dying at home or that haven't been found yet of course are not tabulated. Given that people are being advised to stay indoors, at home, and not go out much, and that the onset symptoms of this disease are severe (for instance like Severe acute respiratory symdrome) they preclude people that are shut in, or living on their own from seeking help. The entire service delivery system in Wuhan is exhausted. They don't even have responder resouces to check people and as countless sourses have mentioned all the emergency line ring busy all the time. People in need are not being able to contact any emergency services.

Finally, and I didn't want to mention this, but this is obviously China, a county that is not regularly foremost about details. Many sources are citing (even the public health officials working on cases) are stating resolutely that fatality numbers are being disguised thus far by classing them as some other thing. Like Viral Pneumonia.

Sars virus tracked around 10% fatality. This is a known. This is a similar virus that seems even more virulent as the early numbers are showing that patient numbers will clearly exceed that of Sars. I mean its half way in just a few weeks. Sars tracked for around 6mths.

Doctor treating Paris coronavirus patients says virus ‘less serious’ than SARS

Again, maybe the brakes should be pumped before we proclaim this to be the next great Spanish flu.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Doctor treating Paris coronavirus patients says virus ‘less serious’ than SARS

Again, maybe the brakes should be pumped before we proclaim this to be the next great Spanish flu.

I didn't state that, and thanks for the feedback, I'm aware of the Paris Dr's report, I'm aware its also been critiqued and that there is substantial disagreement that exists. The Paris Doctor treated two young patients. Early indicators are the young survive the condition better. The situation at ground zero looks much different, and much bleaker. The most populous nation on Earth, is shut down, as we speak, with this virus.

I'm merely posting on this publicly in an online community, on the OT page. Some would like that the information is being forwarded.

If you want to disregard it all as alarmism than that is your prerogative.

Many pundits are pointing to the enormous moves the Chinese authorities have undertaken regarding this "grave" emergency, in Xi Jinping's own words.
I would take his concern with some merit.

 

[bellagiobob]

 

[doulos]

My posts in the thread serve as public information regarding a pandemic in an OT thread. Your replies are serving nothing, and giving no content.

Worse, your first foray into the topic was flippant, disregarded the suffering, and suggested that there is no valid concern. That its all just over reaction. This is already tracking worse than Sars virus.

I am of the opinion that posts such as yours are grossly irresponsible and do nothing except stoke fear among people.

The worst of the internet age.

 

[Drivesaitl]

I am of the opinion that posts such as yours are grossly irresponsible and do nothing except stoke fear among people.

The worst of the internet age.

My posting on the matter has not been "grossly irresponsible" and they are not to "stoke fear" but awareness. That is of course your projection.

Now I am aware of how you composed your "Such as yours" statement. To that end I could agree that some of what has been stated online in regards to the virus is unfortunate, unnecessary, irresponsible, but my posts on the subject have not included those actions or citations.

I repeat that you've offered zero content, in response, in the thread, just your uncited generality about "so much overreaction about coronavirus"

Everything you've expressed is an opinion. I've supported my posts with citations and information.

Enough of the sidebar. Feel free to add to the information if you want to.

 

[doulos]

My posting on the matter has not been "grossly irresponsible" and they are not to "stoke fear" but awareness. That is of course your projection.

Now I am aware of how you composed your "Such as yours" statement. To that end I could agree that some of what has been stated online in regards to the virus is unfortunate, unnecessary, irresponsible, but my posts on the subject have not included those actions or citations.

I repeat that you've offered zero content, in response, in the thread, just your uncited generality about "so much overreaction about coronavirus"

Everything you've expressed is an opinion. I've supported my posts with citations and information.

Enough of the sidebar. Feel free to add to the information if you want to.

I disagree wholeheartedly with your take. I've read enough on this issue to not be concerned with it any more than I was with SARS, which was very little at all. I don't forsee any situation where me adding any information to this thread will do anything except encourage you to post 87 giant diatribes on why you are correct. I'm not interested in it.

I maintain that there is massive overreaction to this issue by the general public and that posts such as yours are grossly irresponsible. Just my opinion on this matter.

 

[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

not a joke

I am supposed to fly into China on the Feb 4th--should I worry?

London to Shenzhen
NGCG44

so you are saying I should jump on the plane and ignore everything

Well the CDC has a level three warning in place now recommending avoiding all non-essential travel to China.

Novel Coronavirus in China - Warning - Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel - Travel Health Notices | Travelers' Health | CDC

 

[Jumptheshark]

Well the CDC has a level three warning in place now recommending avoiding all non-essential travel to China.

Novel Coronavirus in China - Warning - Level 3, Avoid Nonessential Travel - Travel Health Notices | Travelers' Health | CDC

goes without saying I aint going to China any time soon

 

[belair]

3000+ confirmed cases, 81 deaths.

That’s not remotely close to 10%.

The panic of this virus is akin to any other day of the viral infections coming out of China in recent times. Let’s see what actually transpires before proclaiming Coronavirus to be in the same ball back as Ebola.

No one is saying that this virus is in the same ball park as Ebola. Had Ebola originated in a densely populated area like China, it would have likely killed millions across the globe had it not been contained quickly. It was a particularly deadly virus. Entirely different from any strain of the flu.

The problem with any of these types of viruses that are mutations from animals is that humans naturally don't have the antibodies to fight them. Though the mortality rate is quite low with this strain, the idea that it may be fairly transmissible poses the threat that it may get to a point where it can't be controlled. At that point the world waits on a working vaccine while the virus gets to do its business.

I wouldn't buy into the hysteria, but it's extremely uniformed to brush any of these threats off. There's a lot of work that goes into preventing pandemics.

 

[Drivesaitl]

Not sure if this nice story got posted.

Way to go Alberta Oil worker!

 

[bellagiobob]

 

[bellagiobob]

 

[Drivesaitl]

Wow. A dad not only involved his kids in all that he simultaneously made them the most popular kids in the whole city as well as learning how to build something like this. Hope they like visitors. heh.

Some kids have a great dad!

Wonder why he didn't go all wood construction for a home build rollercoaster. First rollercoasters were all wooden construction and its the way to go for such a project. Must be a welder..

 

[ThreeOfAPerfectPair]

Not much of a travel ban.

Flightradar24: Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map

 

[Drivesaitl]

Not much of a travel ban.

Flightradar24: Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map

Its the most deplorable thing about this. Because almost every nation (except Mongolia) is having completely open borders with China through all this.

I say deplorable because one of the first things that ought to occur with such a pandemic is stop flying in and out of there. Its really up to govts to enact. No Airline is going to do this. Worse still, the only Govt actions is to INCREASE viral transmission out of China, in effect exporting Coronavirus, by requiring China to release all nationals not from that country. This is what globally nations are lobbying for. So that selected citizens not even living in their own country can get out of dodge. With no seeming regard to how this only aids in viral transmission out of China.

Cases have now risen to around 5K and reported deaths over 1oo. Has to be kept in mind that most of the cases are newer cases and have not run the virus course yet.

Initially 1/3 coming down with this were requiring hospitalization. ​

This is an interesting article today that details how screening here has already failed.

Matt Gurney: Health officials can reassure us all they want, but our system failed

So while the health board on Toronto, cough how ironic, Sars anybody, is telling us theres no problem, no reason for alarm and that there will be no risk here is describing a screening system that already failed on the two first cases. Because they are ignoring the biggest factor (I'm a punter and I said this days ago) that its known that people are contagious even before they have symptoms. So quite clearly self disclosure does not work as a containment or even screening measure. Nor does taking somebodies temperature. Its 2020 and this is what we are doing. This is what our containment health plan is while several planes a day fly in and out of China, to Canada, thus exporting this viral crisis. I'll ask what I did days ago. Why? Why are these flights being allowed by Canada?

 

[Drivesaitl]

This is another fun byline in the paper this am (and a theme seemingly supported by a couple posters here)

"Hospital officials aim to limit fears of public"

Wow, that seems almost goal directed intent at misinformation.

Probably careless statement but just let that sink in for a moment.

Call me old fashioned but I kind of thought that a role of Public health officials was furthering information so that people could be alerted, informed, be made aware.

The goal of health care officials should not be to placate, it should be to disseminate pertinent information to the public on preparedness and so that they have all required, or even responsible information in place to plan with. Too much to ask?

When health professionals here in Canada are stating things that are erroneous the moment they are stated it does not lend credence that we are being given accurate information. No, it creates questioning. This runs the risk then that people start seeking out other information sources, accurate or inaccurate, which can be more problematic.

Its the role of public health authorities to give accurate and prescient information and to be prepared, and empower preparedness in its citizens. The reason it exists..

 

[doulos]

Not much of a travel ban.

Flightradar24: Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map

There isn't a need for a full travel ban in China. Less than 5k people have acquired coronavirus in China, and less than 100 on the rest of the entire planet. Just over 100 have died in China and 0 across the rest of the world, with basically everyone who has died being elderly or with compromised immune systems/other issues.

I suspect many of the people freaking out over this are the same people who don't bother to get a flu shot every year, and that's going to kill magnitudes more.

 

[soothsayer]

This is another fun byline in the paper this am (and a theme seemingly supported by a couple posters here)

"Hospital officials aim to limit fears of public"

Wow, that seems almost goal directed intent at misinformation.

Probably careless statement but just let that sink in for a moment.

Call me old fashioned but I kind of thought that a role of Public health officials was furthering information so that people could be alerted, informed, be made aware.

The goal of health care officials should not be to placate, it should be to disseminate pertinent information to the public on preparedness and so that they have all required, or even responsible information in place to plan with. Too much to ask?

When health professionals here in Canada are stating things that are erroneous the moment they are stated it does not lend credence that we are being given accurate information. No, it creates questioning. This runs the risk then that people start seeking out other information sources, accurate or inaccurate, which can be more problematic.

Its the role of public health authorities to give accurate and prescient information and to be prepared, and empower preparedness in its citizens. The reason it exists..

One of the (many) functions of certain health professionals is to correct unwarranted concerns of their patients. It is part of your doctor's job to tell you that your itchy b-hole is not a symptom of colon cancer, for example. Experts still have a role to play in society--despite the unfortunate emergence of google scholars.

 

[oobga]

Not much of a travel ban.

Flightradar24: Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map

Well, at least North Korea will be safe.