The Nylander Chronicles Part XI - Electric Boogaloo

[Menzinger]

It’s just a game of chicken, with Gross trying to push things further then he has in the past. The RFA system constraints give Dubas the upper hand and it’s fairly clear how this will end, the agent either accepts the long term deal or pushes for a bridge and runs the risk of having to deal with the next CBA that’s likely going to screw over the players yet again.

The sky isn’t falling yet folks. There’s still nothing quite of the ordinary yet. Now if November rolls around we may have something more substantial to talk about

 

[DarkKnight]

I always maintained that Tavares was a bit of a disappointment as far as his pre draft hype and first few years are concerned.

I'm disappointed in the general attitude of the fanbase that's crucifying one of the best homegrown talents we've literally ever had.

Second paragraph completely irrelevant to Tavares comparison. That's fine you were disappointed, his first year (younger than Willie I'd add) he wasn't prolific, but his second year showed great improvement and on and on from there.

I'm not crucifying Nylander, I just think 6-6.5 is fair for what he is and what he projects to get long term security. I've always found it odd that that type of money is insulting, and I'd add there isn't one pro commentator I've heard who thinks he's better than these comparables we use.

 

[Menzinger]

What would you guys think about a deal around Domi and Nylander ? Nylander is obviously the better player but Domi is more cost controled and he would had some much needed sandpapper to the leafs.

It would be a clear loss for the Leafs. No thanks

 

[egd27]

I mean get used to it, do you think Matthews and Marner will be signing cheap?

Not cheap, but hoping fair

 

[ToneDog]

That's what started this, reported the same thing. The gap is so obviously large.

I now understand why Dubas has not been able to get it done. Love Willie and have high expectations for him but he has done nothing to warrant $8M. A bridge is the only way I see this getting done.

 

[diceman934]

What's interesting is if he were to get offer sheeted at 8, the compensation is just two 1st's, a 2nd and a 3rd.

If it is a 7 year deal it would be 4 1st round picks. If it 6 year deal it would be 2 first a second and a 3rd.

 

[Faltorvo]

Seems weird that a home grown player with elite offensive abilities is not a fan favourite, like we’ve been swimming in talent and we get these guys in the draft all the time. The guy has put up better numbers than Tavares the first couple of years in the league and has been front and Center in the big three for the Leafs renaissance yet we don’t have to like him. Weird.

that would be cool if it was true butttt, it's a lie.

 

[DarkKnight]

It’s just a game of chicken, with Gross trying to push things further then he has in the past. The RFA system constraints give Dubas the upper hand and it’s fairly clear how this will end, the agent either accepts the long term deal or pushes for a bridge and runs the risk of having to deal with the next CBA that’s likely going to screw over the players yet again.

The sky isn’t falling yet folks. There’s still nothing quite of the ordinary yet. Now if November rolls around we may have something more substantial to talk about

Do you think he actually doesn't want to repeat his past "cave" at the last minute narrative that follows him? I mean nobody will take him seriously if they believe he is just blowing smoke. That said, he will have to cave, there is no leverage, so it's a bit of no win anyways on that score.

 

[DarkKnight]

I now understand why Dubas has not been able to get it done. Love Willie and have high expectations for him but he has done nothing to warrant $8M. A bridge is the only way I see this getting done.

Even 7's are absurd imho.

 

[Menzinger]

Dreger just said on Overdrive he still thinks Willie is at 8. Just sayin.

Dredger also stated in the past he thought the team would trade Nylander if they signed Jimmy Vesey as a free agent.

So I’m not sure why we think all of a sudden he’s the go to guy for insider Leafs news. He’s now got a fairly substantial tack record of just being flat out wrong on most thibgs

 

[ToneDog]

Do you think he actually doesn't want to repeat his past "cave" at the last minute narrative that follows him? I mean nobody will take him seriously if they believe he is just blowing smoke. That said, he will have to cave, there is no leverage, so it's a bit of no win anyways on that score.

My concern is that if he caves, he becomes our RyJo and wants out.

 

[Menzinger]

Nylander is now missing games and it's costing him money. Does anyone actually think we are only a couple hundred thousand apart?

A gap of 250k a year is 2 million spread over 8 years in terms of total salary. Easier to see that way why losing 30k a day isn’t as big of an issue as some think.

 

[Daisy Jane]

Seems weird that a home grown player with elite offensive abilities is not a fan favourite, like we’ve been swimming in talent and we get these guys in the draft all the time. The guy has put up better numbers than Tavares the first couple of years in the league and has been front and Center in the big three for the Leafs renaissance yet we don’t have to like him. Weird.

no it's not weird. people have their feelings and they can not like a person. what i think it's weird that people have to feel like they have to A: justify their reasons, or B: feel bad that they don't someone. but again around these parts (a very general assessment) basically if you are super talented it instantly means you have to be beloved and shame on you for not doing so and if you like any other type of quality you are wrong or weird for doing so. which is simply not fair.

 

[Menzinger]

Do you think he actually doesn't want to repeat his past "cave" at the last minute narrative that follows him? I mean nobody will take him seriously if they believe he is just blowing smoke. That said, he will have to cave, there is no leverage, so it's a bit of no win anyways on that score.

He does t have any other option.

If the team stands firm his player runs the risk of losing out a year of earnings.

It’s a situation of a vet agent trying to prob a rookie GM. As long as Dubas stays firm his only option is a reasonable compromise of a contract.

It may take a couple weeks still but this will end in a deal.

 

[Faltorvo]

What's interesting is if he were to get offer sheeted at 8, the compensation is just two 1st's, a 2nd and a 3rd.

the compensation could be much much more at 8m

 

[ToneDog]

A gap of 250k a year is 2 million spread over 8 years in terms of total salary. Easier to see that way why losing 30k a day isn’t as big of an issue as some think.

If Leafs are at Ehlers/Pasta money and Willie is closer to Draisaitl money, the gap is more like $1.25M-$1.5M per year. It is the only logical explanation why they can't get it done.

 

[Daisy Jane]

My concern is that if he caves, he becomes our RyJo and wants out.

and then we get a seth jones-esque player. works for me.

 

[Menzinger]

and then we get a seth jones-esque player. works for me.

Again, easier said than done.

How many teams have 1) a guy of that caliber at that age to begin with a 2) have such a good d core already they’d be willing to move him?

Because it’s pretty hard for me to name somebody who fits in that situation

 

[PromisedLand]

Gaudreau didn't sign till October 10, for all the chicken littles out there.

#LewisGross

 

[rumman]

You don't need to sell me on Marner, but how much more are you giving Marner though?

I don't think he's worth 2-3m more than Nylander. If Nylander is at 6.75 and point gap is 5-10, I don't see how Marner makes more than 7.5.

right now, I think 7-7.5 on a long term deal is fair value for Marner. Remember these players are young, if they do a long deal, mature and become better which I believe both can then their next contract is the money deal that sets them up for life. Right now I think Nylander is hurting the Leafs AND himself by not signing a realistic contract, 8 million isn't going to happen Willie wake up and smell the coffee.

 

[Menzinger]

If Leafs are at Ehlers/Pasta money and Willie is closer to Draisaitl money, the gap is more like $1.25M-$1.5M per year. It is the only logical explanation why they can't get it done.

If the 8 million dollar ask is true I think his agent is trying to get a Dubas to accept a deal around 7 mil.

Could potentially see that happening if it’s an 8 year deal but not at 6-7 years

 

[Faltorvo]

Im sure it has been mentioned at some point, but what happens if he goes un signed this season is he a ufa next year? how would that all work?

nothing changes at all, nothing

he is not 1 year closer to arb rites, not 1 years closer to ufa,,,,nothingggg

other then he loses out on 6 million bucks.

 

[ToneDog]

Again, easier said than done.

How many teams have 1) a guy of that caliber at that age to begin with a 2) have such a good d core already they’d be willing to move him?

Because it’s pretty hard for me to name somebody who fits in that situation

and 3) is willing to pay Willie 8x8 ??

 

[socko]

My concern is that if he caves, he becomes our RyJo and wants out.

If this is about the agent, and not the player, that would not be good. Worrying about Burke's claim that he caves on the first day of the regular season.

I maintain that Matthews doesn't need a playmaking winger. He's not Brett Hull. He's not setting up for the 1 timer. He's not even Phil Kessel, he's not making end to end rushes and needs a fast guy who can keep up with him and pass the puck. Matthews plays a dirty game. His patented shot involves a toe drag that creates his own shooting lane, doesn't need Nylander for that. I would rather have Matthews play with a guy who can score some goals. Felt that way all along. Nylander might be more valuable to an awful team that needs a first line center.

 

[Rare Jewel]

If it is a 7 year deal it would be 4 1st round picks. If it 6 year deal it would be 2 first a second and a 3rd.

Yep.

At the risk of two extra 1sts though, offering a year less is probably the better way to go.