The Goalie Discussion

[Flying Dego]

Yes but I imagine he wouldn’t like that. If the pens signed Murray first and I was a team in need of long term goal stability I’d ask JR for a trade or offer sheet him.

I don’t think Carolina would have any qualms about doing that.

Murray’s contract may force a good skater out too

Ya not realistic. MM is not consistent or elite enough to lose a good skater. That'll be misconstrued but I don't see why we'd cut our depth for him, that would put additional strain on the goaltending.

Save the 3ishM and start Jarry after the year. Keep the savings to load up our strength - the forwards. Even during TJs dip in numbers he's looked the part of a starter. Goalies are not worth overpaying.

For the record if TJ gets 3 years and another young goalie arrives with starter potential I'll have no problem switching. The name on the jersey matters little in this case. Find the best value for the team, especially crucial right now.

 

[wej20]

Yes but I imagine he wouldn’t like that. If the pens signed Murray first and I was a team in need of long term goal stability I’d ask JR for a trade or offer sheet him.

I don’t think Carolina would have any qualms about doing that.

Murray’s contract may force a good skater out too

I guess it depends, if he took 1 year then establishes himself as the starter then he'd make a bigger payday than if we sign him to a 4/5 year deal this summer. Carolina seems potentially a good fit, Buffalo (though they're problems go far beyond Goalie) and maybe Colorado.

 

[vikingGoalie]

unless Jarry implodes, or Murray becomes an absolute shooting star, it's getting harder and harder to imagine that Jarry is not our starter next season and DeSmith is his backup. Only reason I might hang on to Murray is if a really good prove it deal is struck and he can be flicked off to Seattle and the expansion draft perhaps.

I do love that fact that Jarry is a thick/strong farm kid. When he got bowled over by the Cats he bounced up like it was nothing, Murray would've been out to IR. Though to @Flying Dego point. Really while I might prefer Jarry because of his style and his ability to play the puck, end of the day whoever is giving us the best shot at another cup is who I want....

 

[IcedCapp]

unless Jarry implodes, or Murray becomes an absolute shooting star, it's getting harder and harder to imagine that Jarry is not our starter next season and DeSmith is his backup. Only reason I might hang on to Murray is if a really good prove it deal is struck and he can be flicked off to Seattle and the expansion draft perhaps.

I do love that fact that Jarry is a thick/strong farm kid. When he got bowled over by the Cats he bounced up like it was nothing, Murray would've been out to IR. Though to @Flying Dego point. Really while I might prefer Jarry because of his style and his ability to play the puck, end of the day whoever is giving us the best shot at another cup is who I want....

Here's my issue with these goalie discussions. It's basically a handful of people dragging this Jarry bandwagon up the side of a mountain, and each of those people have a lineage of anti-Murray sentiment that can be traced back a decent amount of time. For example, you were criticizing Murray in the midddddddddddddddle of his back-to-back cups. Like, I think you were shitting on him in the Sharks' post-series thread (but I got elbowed in the head tonight, so maybe I'm misremembering the exact time frame).

My point? Some people need to be right so badly that everything becomes a piece of evidence that supports their position and the race to the "SEE, I WAS RIGHT!!" finish line is a single-play sprint. Every goal against Murray is a "see? Told you so!" moment. Hell, every save is the same. "His saves aren't as good as Jarry's." Wot?

I've said a lot of stupid shit. I've been wrong a lot. No one cares. Saying stuff like "WOT OMG WHY IS TEH JARRY NOT TEH STARTING IS THIS NOT A TEH MERITOCRACY?! MURRAY EARNED STARTS BUT HIS NAME IS NOT TEH JARRY SO I AM NOW GOING TO CRITICIZE BECAUSE I WILL BE PROVEN RIGHT AFTER HE LOSES THIS GAME AND IF HE PLAYS WILL I WILL NOT ADMIT I WAS A STOOPID HEAD!" isn't helping your case. When you have 50% of the posts in a 900 post thread, all saying, "I like Jarry more than Murray" saying "I can't believe Murray is starting tonight! I want Jarry!" passes into this nirvana of absurdity.

We get it. Some of y'all don't like Murray. Your reasoning has left the realm of logic and reason and has arrived in this purely emotional spewage.

 

[vikingGoalie]

Here's my issue with these goalie discussions. It's basically a handful of people dragging this Jarry bandwagon up the side of a mountain, and each of those people have a lineage of anti-Murray sentiment that can be traced back a decent amount of time. For example, you were criticizing Murray in the midddddddddddddddle of his back-to-back cups. Like, I think you were ****ting on him in the Sharks' post-series thread (but I got elbowed in the head tonight, so maybe I'm misremembering the exact time frame).

My point? Some people need to be right so badly that everything becomes a piece of evidence that supports their position and the race to the "SEE, I WAS RIGHT!!" finish line is a single-play sprint. Every goal against Murray is a "see? Told you so!" moment. Hell, every save is the same. "His saves aren't as good as Jarry's." Wot?

I've said a lot of stupid ****. I've been wrong a lot. No one cares. Saying stuff like "WOT OMG WHY IS TEH JARRY NOT TEH STARTING IS THIS NOT A TEH MERITOCRACY?! MURRAY EARNED STARTS BUT HIS NAME IS NOT TEH JARRY SO I AM NOW GOING TO CRITICIZE BECAUSE I WILL BE PROVEN RIGHT AFTER HE LOSES THIS GAME AND IF HE PLAYS WILL I WILL NOT ADMIT I WAS A STOOPID HEAD!" isn't helping your case. When you have 50% of the posts in a 900 post thread, all saying, "I like Jarry more than Murray" saying "I can't believe Murray is starting tonight! I want Jarry!" passes into this nirvana of absurdity.

We get it. Some of y'all don't like Murray. Your reasoning has left the realm of logic and reason and has arrived in this purely emotional spewage.

well all righty then...

Totally honest I could care less what other people think and I've certainly been wrong before. However I do enjoy discussing goal tending in general, if you search you can also find posts early on where I thought Murray was going to win a vezina someday. Also posts that I thought that we had to give him the benefit of 20 games and so on. I've also said countless times that I really don't care what name is on the back if it's the best netminder. I also prefer when the discussion is about some of the technical reasons why people prefer a goalie over another. Almost always when I criticize i point out what's going wrong, and why I think one goal is not good to give up versus another.

Obviously tonight Murray was outstanding. My only beef was that Jarry is literally tied for 2nd in the league for save percentage, AND he out played murray in his start against the Cats, vs Murray's start against the lightning. However, sully picked Murray and Murray literally kept us in the game in the 1st period and was our best player. Also Murray has a slight edge over the last 5 stars over Jarry (.917 vs .914). So I can see the argument there for Murray. It'll be telling on who gets the nod for the next game. Does Sullivan go with a 1a / 1b rotation or is he gonna start piling on starts for Murray? we'll have to wait and see.

btw, before seeing this post I did post I wanted to see Jarry, but Murray was outstanding/best player for the penguins tonight in the post game.

Main reason I wanted to see Jarry? I thought he was the better goalie after that last game he played over murray in his previous outing against Tampa. Murray was certainly not bad in that game, just Jarry looked to my eye better. It's kinda the definition of the merit system with goalies. You play best you get start, next guy gets a chance he plays better then you, he starts. But I suspect that Sullivan is treating it more like Murray is his starter and he wants to get him on a roll. But as I said we'll have to wait and see on that.

So I suppose when a neutral site like the the hockey writers point out the differences between our starting goalies they are on an agenda as well?
Oh let's not bring up the fact that I've posted numerous times that you can't make a decision on our goalies until the season is over.

The one thing that is annoying is that some people on here treat some players like sacred cows, I'm glad murray is turning it around. We need TWO good goalies going into the playoffs. But my point is pretty valid. If both play like they are right now and Jarry finishes measurably better statistically then Murray then what?
Probably comes down to who gets the nod and keeps the net during the playoffs. But it would be annoying to pay big bucks to Murray (that we can't afford) if Jarry is playing as well or better for a lot less.

As far as being critical sometimes, and praising sometimes of Murray, that goes hand in hand with his high percentage of really bad starts, combined with other outings that are really good.

peace out, hope that elbow to the head didn't do to much damage

 

[EightyOne]

Gonna just be real interesting to see the contract numbers.

I'm okay with either. Still not sold on going Jarry only. But Murray has struggled so badly with legit consistency. (Pens anywhere close to playoffs if Jarry-like back-up wasn't here???)

 

[chethejet]

Teams that continue to be mediocre comes down to goal tending for many of them. Murray is a SC goalie and when you come down to it, his age and pedigree will be in demand.

 

[Richard]

You need a good goalie and a GREAT team to win the cup.

You can have a great goalie and a good team and you almost certainly won't win the cup.

Anything to make the TEAM great I am all for. As long as a goalie makes the saves he should he is giving the club a chance to win. That's what Fleury never understood, he always folds under the pressure and only thrives when there is no pressure or there was negative pressure. That is why I disliked him.

Get a good goalie at a reasonable price and make a great team.

 

[Andy99]

Kingerski has a chat today in which he claimed he learned that the team sat the goalies down and said Matt was their man, that he would get all the pressure games and start in the POs. But Jarry would play a lot and if Murray slips, then he’ll get the net...

 

[Gurglesons]

Kingerski has a chat today in which he claimed he learned that the team sat the goalies down and said Matt was their man, that he would get all the pressure games and start in the POs. But Jarry would play a lot and if Murray slips, then he’ll get the net...

Lol.

 

[Jacob]

I don’t want DeSmith as backup no matter which of the two is starter. I’d go after Halak or Greiss on a two year deal like Vokoun got.

I think with the window closing and I’d hate to blow one of our few competitive seasons left on a goalie getting hurt or their game going into the tank.

 

[ChaosAgent]

What's a reasonable contract projection for Jarry and Murray next year? We talking $3.5M to Jarry, $6.5M to Murray so $10M combined? Assuming a cap of $83M, we bring back McCann and dump Bjugs, that give us:

$79M
Jake-Geno-Rust
Zucker-Sid-Tanev
McCann ($4M)-Blueger-Hornqvist
ZAR-X-X

Dumo-Letang
Petts-Marino
JJ-Ruh

Murray
Jarry

So about $4M to upgrade on Ruh and fill out the bottom 6. Guessing the team is going to lobby hard to bring Simon back so that leaves very little for the other holes. It'd be great to dump JJ for Riiks while here, but that ain't gonna happen.

I think the reality is that if we bring back both goalies, other guys gotta go: Riiks, Kahun, maybe Simon, maybe McCann. Mario willing, JJ.

I don't want to be the idiot team that commits $10M to goaltending but having 2 #1s is a luxury especially given the high variability of the position.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Kingerski has a chat today in which he claimed he learned that the team sat the goalies down and said Matt was their man, that he would get all the pressure games and start in the POs. But Jarry would play a lot and if Murray slips, then he’ll get the net...

Is he ever right or have any inside contacts?

Because that seems like something the coaching staff would NOT do at this point considering they've shown no hesitation going with Jarry over stretches of games.

 

[Flying Dego]

Kingerski has a chat today in which he claimed he learned that the team sat the goalies down and said Matt was their man, that he would get all the pressure games and start in the POs. But Jarry would play a lot and if Murray slips, then he’ll get the net...

That would be the dumbest thing ever. 'Nothin personal TJ, we appreciate you being a top goalie all year but MM is the guy bc the past dictates it.' I'm sure this is fake.

MM should feel the pressure. His long stretches of poor play should be put on notice between he and the coaches. Giving him security that his performance is acceptable is bad for the team. Push him to prove himself. TJ is too good all year to just s*** on like that. Let the two fight and claw for starts each week. No reason to unmotivate both which is essentially what that would do.

 

[cheesedanish87]

Kingerski has a chat today in which he claimed he learned that the team sat the goalies down and said Matt was their man, that he would get all the pressure games and start in the POs. But Jarry would play a lot and if Murray slips, then he’ll get the net...

What a clown.

When your one of these media members like Kingerski and TIOPS that have no sources and know nothing more then the average fan you have to make up stories so you can get clicks on your website.

If your going to make up a story at least make it believable.

He could of made up a story that JR is leaning toward keeping Murray and trading Jarry in the summer and that would of at least been believable.

 

[Jacob]

What's a reasonable contract projection for Jarry and Murray next year? We talking $3.5M to Jarry, $6.5M to Murray so $10M combined? Assuming a cap of $83M, we bring back McCann and dump Bjugs, that give us:

$79M
Jake-Geno-Rust
Zucker-Sid-Tanev
McCann ($4M)-Blueger-Hornqvist
ZAR-X-X

Dumo-Letang
Petts-Marino
JJ-Ruh

Murray
Jarry

So about $4M to upgrade on Ruh and fill out the bottom 6. Guessing the team is going to lobby hard to bring Simon back so that leaves very little for the other holes. It'd be great to dump JJ for Riiks while here, but that ain't gonna happen.

I think the reality is that if we bring back both goalies, other guys gotta go: Riiks, Kahun, maybe Simon, maybe McCann. Mario willing, JJ.

I don't want to be the idiot team that commits $10M to goaltending but having 2 #1s is a luxury especially given the high variability of the position.

I think Jarry is easy to nail down. He’s having a good season obviously but it’s still only his first and he’s not had a starter’s workload. I think that both camps would align at something 2 years, $4 million.

Murray is still overall having a pretty bad season, which could change, but I think you could convince him and his agent that now isn’t the time for a long-term deal. You could also argue that since he’s been statistically worse than Jarry, despite being relatively equal in age, I don’t think he can command a whole lot more than Jarry either. Maybe 3 years, $5 million? Or maybe even 2x4 like Jarry? It’s still a raise but not much of one.

 

[Night Shift]

I do love that fact that Jarry is a thick/strong farm kid. When he got bowled over by the Cats he bounced up like it was nothing, Murray would've been out to IR. Though to @Flying Dego point. Really while I might prefer Jarry because of his style and his ability to play the puck, end of the day whoever is giving us the best shot at another cup is who I want....

I really do hope we can find away to keep both but if had to pick one, I take Jarry for that reason too. I do question Murray's health going forward. Perhaps another reason I didn't like trading Gustavsson at the time, would have given us other option as we figure this out.

 

[Khelandros]

I think Jarry is easy to nail down. He’s having a good season obviously but it’s still only his first and he’s not had a starter’s workload. I think that both camps would align at something 2 years, $4 million.

Murray is still overall having a pretty bad season, which could change, but I think you could convince him and his agent that now isn’t the time for a long-term deal. You could also argue that since he’s been statistically worse than Jarry, despite being relatively equal in age, I don’t think he can command a whole lot more than Jarry either. Maybe 3 years, $5 million? Or maybe even 2x4 like Jarry? It’s still a raise but not much of one.

You could probably shave a mil or 2 off Jarrys next contract. $3MM hit seems reasonable.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think it's flawed to say that Murray has had a "pretty bad season", not because that's wrong but because I don't think an accurate representation of how his season will be portrayed in contract negotiations. Let's just say he plays in 16 of the remaining 27 games, which would be about a 60-40 split between him and Jarry, and he continues to play like he has in the last 6 weeks. That's going to result in him ending up with about a .910 save% on the year, which will be about average. However, that's with 1 horrid stretch and a .925 save% outside of that horrid stretch. I don't think that will be viewed as an "average" year, I think it will be viewed as him having a good year with a horrid 11 game stretch. Or at least he and his agent will argue that.

Murray's not going to take a crappy deal because of an 11 game bad stretch. You can definitely argue that his overall result were only average because those games counted, but Murray and his agent are flat out going to refuse to be paid like an average goalie if Murray's numbers are only average because of a small sample size.

Also Murray has been better than Jarry since Christmas, but it's not a dramatic difference. Going near 50-50 or Murray getting the advantage at a 60-40 clip is probably the fair way to use them, assuming they keep performing like they have recently. Both have been really strong recently.

 

[Khelandros]

I think it's flawed to say that Murray has had a "pretty bad season", not because that's wrong but because I don't think an accurate representation of how his season will be portrayed in contract negotiations. Let's just say he plays in 16 of the remaining 27 games, which would be about a 60-40 split between him and Jarry, and he continues to play like he has in the last 6 weeks. That's going to result in him ending up with about a .910 save% on the year, which will be about average. However, that's with 1 horrid stretch and a .925 save% outside of that horrid stretch. I don't think that will be viewed as an "average" year, I think it will be viewed as him having a good year with a horrid 11 game stretch. Or at least he and his agent will argue that.

Murray's not going to take a crappy deal because of an 11 game bad stretch. You can definitely argue that his overall result were only average because those games counted, but Murray and his agent are flat out going to refuse to be paid like an average goalie if Murray's numbers are only average because of a small sample size.

Also Murray has been better than Jarry since Christmas, but it's not a dramatic difference. Going near 50-50 or Murray getting the advantage at a 60-40 clip is probably the fair way to use them, assuming they keep performing like they have recently. Both have been really strong recently.

2017-18 .907SV% - Below average
2018-19 .919SV% - Above average
2019-20 .902SV% - Below Average

.909SV% over his current contract, below average.

But what do I know? I'm just a MAF fanboy.

 

[Hamurai]

Kingerski has a chat today in which he claimed he learned that the team sat the goalies down and said Matt was their man, that he would get all the pressure games and start in the POs. But Jarry would play a lot and if Murray slips, then he’ll get the net...

Alright well that settles it. Lock this up.

 

[Hamurai]

2017-18 .907SV% - Below average
2018-19 .919SV% - Above average
2019-20 .902SV% - Below Average

.909SV% over his current contract, below average.

But what do I know? I'm just a MAF fanboy.

His shots against over that period is 3,865. He has 3,520 saves, so ~=.911 sv%.

Not a huge increase, but adding up the save percentage and dividing by 3 isn’t accurate because it weighs the .902 heavier.

Edit is a typo. Had 3,502 instead of 3,520.

 

[Flying Dego]

Alright well that settles it. Lock this up.

It's hilarious if this is remotely true. Lets not test TJ who all year has been a top 3 goalie. Instead let MM take the role back and then in the off-season we can debate 'can TJ handle the pressure?' 'Gee I don't know'

MM than has all leverage and gets whatever 7M contract he wants bc our other goalie isn't 'tested'. Really this would be moronic beyond comprehension.

 

[Hamurai]

It's hilarious if this is remotely true. Lets not test TJ who all year has been a top 3 goalie. Instead let MM take the role back and then in the off-season we can debate 'can TJ handle the pressure?' 'Gee I don't know'

MM than has all leverage and gets whatever 7M contract he wants bc our other goalie isn't 'tested'. Really this would be moronic beyond comprehension.

Lol I was making fun of kingerski I can’t imagine what he is reporting true. The premise that well if Murray slips then Jarry gets the net is what happened already. I think they’re trying to build Murray’s confidence because they know they need two competent goalies through the playoffs.

 

[Khelandros]

His shots against over that period is 3,865. He has 3,520 saves, so ~=.911 sv%.

Not a huge increase, but adding up the save percentage and dividing by 3 isn’t accurate because it weighs the .902 heavier.

Edit is a typo. Had 3,502 instead of 3,520.

So .906SV% then?