The Goalie Discussion

[heysmilinstrange]

A "calendar year" is how we're measuring things now when there is a dormant period of about 5 months in the hockey calendar?

Fact: MM has not played more than 50 RS games in his 4 years in the NHL due to various reasons (excluded his first yr since that was a partial).

Matt Murray Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

I mean, I said "beginning," so I don't get what's so controversial about my post. For a goalie who's had as many injury issues as Murray has had in his first few seasons, going a full year without one is a good step in the right direction.

 

[Tom Hanks]

I disagree with this

"All things being equal" meaning they are stopping the puck at the same rate, not necessarily SV% either. If they are neck and neck then Sully is going to go with MM because he's got 2 Cups to his resume. That will be the deciding factor (whether that's the correct decision or not remains to be seen).

So for Jarry to start he's going to have to outplay MM. That's the reality.

Not really. I think the deciding factor if form is equal) will be Jarry’s puck handling abilities. Him being to make a good tape to tape pass for loose pucks coming in. The main one though is getting to pucks on dump ins. That is a huge asset especially for a team that doesn’t like to play against a heavy forecheck. Jarry getting to the puck takes a lot of pressure of our guys on the ice and will force teams to adjust their own game. That’s a win for us.

 

[Khelandros]

I mean, I said "beginning," so I don't get what's so controversial about my post. For a goalie who's had as many injury issues as Murray has had in his first few seasons, going a full year without one is a good step in the right direction.

He had an upper body injury on February 7th, 2019. So much for that calendar.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

Not really. I think the deciding factor if form is equal) will be Jarry’s puck handling abilities. Him being to make a good tape to tape pass for loose pucks coming in. The main one though is getting to pucks on dump ins. That is a huge asset especially for a team that doesn’t like to play against a heavy forecheck. Jarry getting to the puck takes a lot of pressure of our guys on the ice and will force teams to adjust their own game. That’s a win for us.

We'll just disagree on this

I believe Sully values MM's experience over puck handling

 

[heysmilinstrange]

He had an upper body injury on February 7th, 2019. So much for that calendar.

Oh, so he's less than 2 weeks away from going a full calendar year without injuries. Sounds like progress to me!

 

[Khelandros]

Oh, so he's less than 2 weeks away from going a full calendar year without injuries. Sounds like progress to me!

Sure, but if you aren't playing for weeks at a time, it's kind of hard to get hurt.

 

[heysmilinstrange]

Sure, but if you aren't playing for weeks at a time, it's kind of hard to get hurt.

Similarly, if you're looking for reasons to shit on Murray, nothing he does will ever be good enough for you.

 

[Khelandros]

Similarly, if you're looking for reasons to **** on Murray, nothing he does will ever be good enough for you.

Had a thought about this after I posted. What if the way that Murray is playing this year, deep in his net, not being aggressive on plays, is a result of him knowing he's injury prone and trying to limit the amount of contact he gets during games? Just a thought.

I'm not looking for reasons, the stats are there. 3 years ago he was good enough. Hell, 2 years ago he was good enough. But he has regressed, and if he continues to regress it will be a big problem.

 

[heysmilinstrange]

Had a thought about this after I posted. What if the way that Murray is playing this year, deep in his net, not being aggressive on plays, is a result of him knowing he's injury prone and trying to limit the amount of contact he gets during games? Just a thought.

I'm not looking for reasons, the stats are there. 3 years ago he was good enough. Hell, 2 years ago he was good enough. But he has regressed, and if he continues to regress it will be a big problem.

I think it was mentioned in one of the Athletic podcasts that Murray is probably playing too deep in his net as a reaction to the number of breakaways he faced last season. Anyway, he's been playing more aggressively in his last several starts. I'm sure the goalie coach is working with him on it.

 

[Khelandros]

I think it was mentioned in one of the Athletic podcasts that Murray is probably playing too deep in his net as a reaction to the number of breakaways he faced last season. Anyway, he's been playing more aggressively in his last several starts. I'm sure the goalie coach is working with him on it.

Every goalie I know when faced with a breakaway doesn't play in his net on them. That seems like the opposite of what a goalie should do.

 

[JTG]

I think Murray turns into old Murray from t his point on. This is when he starts to bring it together and stringing game of lights out hockey.

 

[Tom Hanks]

I think Murray turns into old Murray from t his point on. This is when he starts to bring it together and stringing game of lights out hockey.

Old Murray as in gets injured a lot and has big mediocre stretches mixed in with some great ones

 

[The Old Master]

I think it was mentioned in one of the Athletic podcasts that Murray is probably playing too deep in his net as a reaction to the number of breakaways he faced last season.

breakaways are never a reason to be back in the net. goalies play back in the net when there are a number of players around him and by being back in the net allows him a chance to move from side to side without giving the shooters an open net to shoot at. you come out to cut down the angel on breakaways, not back up in the net.

 

[wgknestrick]

We'll just disagree on this

I believe Sully values MM's experience over puck handling

Sully values SV% (or quality starts) over anything because it directly equates to winning more. Have we forgot MAF/Murray times when he quickly shifted to benching MAF for Murray? He has almost always been objective when it comes to roster decisions.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

Sully values SV% (or quality starts) over anything because it directly equates to winning more. Have we forgot MAF/Murray times when he quickly shifted to benching MAF for Murray? He has almost always been objective when it comes to roster decisions.

Not sure if you missed the context of the discussion, but we were stating "IF ALL THINGS ARE EQUAL", what would Sully go for. The quality starts/SV% are given as equals.

 

[cheesedanish87]

I think you guys are really overvaluing save percentage.

You think Sully goes and looks at the box score after the game to see how his goalie played?

 

[Flying Dego]

I would assume NHL coaches are viewing a bit of the analytics/stats for decision influence. But I believe they are mostly interested in watching film and breaking down a goalies performance...

If that were the case it's fairly obvious who should continue seeing the majority (60/40). Call me a weirdo but I like to see my goalie look comfortable and not give up flubs. I think a big gap between our two goalies all year is one gives up head scratching goals nightly while the other is only getting beat on quality scoring chances. I think looking into that trend is more telling on future season success than anything.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

I think you guys are really overvaluing save percentage.

You think Sully goes and looks at the box score after the game to see how his goalie played?

This is the thing with message boards (and this isn't a personal attack). I said ~20 posts ago that Sully is going to look who performs better and that doesn't necessarily mean SV%. Then I said if he believes they both are performing the same he'd give MM the edge bc of his resume. Another poster felt Jarry would get the edge bc of his puck handling.

I've been on record that SV% isn't a great way to measure performance, but it can be an indicator.

 

[kladorf2005]

Sully values SV% (or quality starts) over anything because it directly equates to winning more. Have we forgot MAF/Murray times when he quickly shifted to benching MAF for Murray? He has almost always been objective when it comes to roster decisions.

This is not the same situation as MAF. He was old and expensive. Murray and Jarry are both young and neither will be fetching MAF money next year. I expect Murray to be more expensive, but so will Jarry and the gap won't be near the same as the MAF/Murray gap was in 2017.

The team needs to legitimately figure out which goalie is the long term future. Both of their ceilings are the roof. If they are able to re-sign both, you can expect one of them will be shipping cross country to the Kraken in 2021. (I assume Jarry is not exempt, correct?)

Full disclosure, I'm not that caught up on their cap situation to know if they'll be able to re-sign both. I know they're both RFA's this summer. But if they can't re-sign both, that gives them 0.5 years to figure it out instead of 1.5 years...

Either way, it's an open competition IMO. Don't know how fans of either one can confidently say this is "so and so's" net.

 

[Flying Dego]

This is not the same situation as MAF. He was old and expensive. Murray and Jarry are both young and neither will be fetching MAF money next year. I expect Murray to be more expensive, but so will Jarry and the gap won't be near the same as the MAF/Murray gap was in 2017.

The team needs to legitimately figure out which goalie is the long term future. Both of their ceilings are the roof. If they are able to re-sign both, you can expect one of them will be shipping cross country to the Kraken in 2021. (I assume Jarry is not exempt, correct?)

Full disclosure, I'm not that caught up on their cap situation to know if they'll be able to re-sign both. I know they're both RFA's this summer. But if they can't re-sign both, that gives them 0.5 years to figure it out instead of 1.5 years...

Either way, it's an open competition IMO. Don't know how fans of either one can confidently say this is "so and so's" net.

Contract wise it is quite different even though they are RFAs. MM, if he plays well, will be making 'MAF' money. I don't see how he is less than 6M. This is Jarry's first negotiation so he'll get about half the contract. 3-3.75M if he plays great all year.

I don't want to spend upwards of 10M on the position. This year we are just over 4.5 for both. You'd be heaping on an increase of 5M or so next year. If rather pick a goalie and utilitize those funds towards the forward group. Our success is driven by the forwards more than the D or G. If they are stacked they make everyone's job easier and make the other positions look better.

If TJ continues with his success I am on board with him being our starter for cheaper and recouping assets with MM. *Obviously things can change if performance dives.

 

[cheesedanish87]

This is the thing with message boards (and this isn't a personal attack). I said ~20 posts ago that Sully is going to look who performs better and that doesn't necessarily mean SV%. Then I said if he believes they both are performing the same he'd give MM the edge bc of his resume. Another poster felt Jarry would get the edge bc of his puck handling.

I've been on record that SV% isn't a great way to measure performance, but it can be an indicator.

I wasn't calling any particular poster out.

We have all these goalie threads on here and it seems like the majority of posters think that whoever has the best save percentage is playing the best.

I just think that's a really dumb way to judge a goalie, I don't think save percentage is completely useless, but it's not how goalies should be judged by.

Their are teams in the league that I don't think any goalie in the NHL could put up good numbers playing in front of.

Then you have teams like the NYI and Stars where you could probably put any NHL goalie on their teams and they would put up good numbers.

Save percentage is a combination of how the team plays in front of the goalie and how the goalie performs.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

I wasn't calling any particular poster out.

We have all these goalie threads on here and it seems like the majority of posters think that whoever has the best save percentage is playing the best.

I just think that's a really dumb way to judge a goalie, I don't think save percentage is completely useless, but it's not how goalies should be judged by.

Their are teams in the league that I don't think any goalie in the NHL could put up good numbers playing in front of.

Then you have teams like the NYI and Stars where you could probably put any NHL goalie on their teams and they would put up good numbers.

Save percentage is a combination of how the team plays in front of the goalie and how the goalie performs.

You said "you guys" and I thought you were referring to me. Sorry if I misread.

 

[kladorf2005]

Contract wise it is quite different even though they are RFAs. MM, if he plays well, will be making 'MAF' money. I don't see how he is less than 6M. This is Jarry's first negotiation so he'll get about half the contract. 3-3.75M if he plays great all year.

I don't want to spend upwards of 10M on the position. This year we are just over 4.5 for both. You'd be heaping on an increase of 5M or so next year. If rather pick a goalie and utilitize those funds towards the forward group. Our success is driven by the forwards more than the D or G. If they are stacked they make everyone's job easier and make the other positions look better.

If TJ continues with his success I am on board with him being our starter for cheaper and recouping assets with MM. *Obviously things can change if performance dives.

I agree. I don't want to pay 10M for the position next year either. But the silver lining is that it would be just for 1 year and would potentially save us from losing a good position player to Seattle. Also would give us an extra year to decide which goalie to keep. So I say if they can figure out a way to keep them both next year, they absolutely should.

 

[Tom Hanks]

I agree. I don't want to pay 10M for the position next year either. But the silver lining is that it would be just for 1 year and would potentially save us from losing a good position player to Seattle. Also would give us an extra year to decide which goalie to keep. So I say if they can figure out a way to keep them both next year, they absolutely should.

If we keep both we more than likely lose a good player this off season. So I think it’s a choice that’s made this summer.

 

[madinsomniac]

JR was on the fan this afternoon... he clearly stated that while they did listen to offers for a goalie in the offseason, they were not shopping Jarry and nothing outside of a huge overpayment would have gotten him moved... he also acknowledged that it will be difficult to keep both this offseason.
He said Jarry is due a big raise and more or less keeping both under the cap isn’t going to be easy...

It sounds like one will be gone in the offseason for certain