The Goalie Discussion

[cheesedanish87]

JR was on the fan this afternoon... he clearly stated that while they did listen to offers for a goalie in the offseason, they were not shopping Jarry and nothing outside of a huge overpayment would have gotten him moved... he also acknowledged that it will be difficult to keep both this offseason.
He said Jarry is due a big raise and more or less keeping both under the cap isn’t going to be easy...

It sounds like one will be gone in the offseason for certain

Thanks.

I was wondering what JR was going to say about the goalies.

After listening to it I agree that one of the goalies will be gone in the off season.

I also got a bad vibe about the Bjug and Dumo injuries, it didn't sound like JR was sure when they would be back, JR mentioned possibly having to change up his plans going into the trade deadline because of those injuries.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

JR was on the fan this afternoon... he clearly stated that while they did listen to offers for a goalie in the offseason, they were not shopping Jarry and nothing outside of a huge overpayment would have gotten him moved... he also acknowledged that it will be difficult to keep both this offseason.
He said Jarry is due a big raise and more or less keeping both under the cap isn’t going to be easy...

It sounds like one will be gone in the offseason for certain

If that's the case, then all this talk about moving DeSmith to a team that needs a backup won't amount to anything as the Pens will need DeSmith to backup whichever one of Murray or Jarry they end up keeping.

 

[HandshakeLine]

If that's the case, then all this talk about moving DeSmith to a team that needs a backup won't amount to anything as the Pens will need DeSmith to backup whichever one of Murray or Jarry they end up keeping.

Not necessarily. CDS is on the more expensive end of the backup market, so it's possible they could move him this TDL and sign someone in the off-season to be the backup. If we don't see CDS moved it's probably because the offer isn't good enough to be worth the bother.

 

[wgknestrick]

I'm still unsure of which goaltender Murray or Jarry the Pens should be keeping (maybe it's both). There is some serious risk with both. With 3 NHLish goalies, PIT needs to be moving one soon IMO.

• Murray isn't very durable or consistent through an entire season. Concussion issues are a serious red flag and cause concern as I think it affects his play significantly.
• Jarry doesn't have much on his resume that demonstrates an ability to save a high % of pucks over an extended period (averages just over .90SV% throughout most of his career). Has also lost 5 of his last 9 starts and is back around his career ave SV% in Jan.

I'm leaning more towards moving Jarry now where he has some decent trade value. It's very plausible that his great 3 months are a fluke and he never gets back there because they are looking like an outlier at this point to me. Sure, it's a risk, but we have Murray who is a slightly safer bet ATM. It all depends on Murray's salary ask because he could very well price himself into a potential terrible contract situation. I don't like Murray at all over 5.5mil/year, but I think he'll be well over that ask.

I don't envy our GM with this decision as it has a lot of risk with both directions.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Ideally, you let this season and postseason answer the question of which one to keep. Jarry's got the elite puckhandling skills that bump him up for a team looking to have a more fluid attack (which is primarily why I'd advocate for him to stay), while Murray has the Cup rings, which raises his value, even with the injury and consistency questions.

Neither one is an elite Roy/Price-esque 'tender, so we shouldn't look at it in that sense. And the Pens don't need a franchise goalie, anyway. We just need one that can win 4/7 games when necessary.

 

[HandshakeLine]

I mean, barring a massive overpayment, I can't really see a good reason for moving either one now instead of at the draft.

 

[Tender Rip]

Ideally, you let this season and postseason answer the question

Luckily, that is EXACTLY what will (obviously) happen.

 

[HandshakeLine]

Luckily, that is EXACTLY what will (obviously) happen.

I don't know about you, but I don't feel so lucky lately!

But it's the smart money move, just like holding on to MAF was. I also don't think a few games of sub-optimal play has lowered Jarry's value at all, given the team's injuries and how elite his stats were for a huge stretch of time earlier this season. Most likely, GMs noticed him, and then wrote off any drop in performance as part of the Pens' injury woes, which is probably fair.

It's honestly the best position the Pens have been in with their goalies in a long time, because now both have to play for a spot on the club going forward, whereas everyone knew MAF was gone in the expansion draft for a full year.

Barring something major, I'd expect GMJR to listen to offers for both in the off-season, and then go with the best return for which ever one we move. No sense telegraphing which one that is now.

 

[cvrle1]

At the end of the day I hope Murray is one that is shipped out. Not because i dont like him, because i think he sucks or anything like that. It is mainly because Jarry was always thought as having better pedigree, plays better positionally, has less flaws (like MMs glove hand as example) and has better mental fortitude. I dont want to argue any of these, and if MM posses same qualities, thats beating a dead horse conversation. While Murray did play huge part in winning 2 cups, he has also shown that he is very streaky goalie, which doesnt help. When he is on, he is great, but when he is off his game, it just looks ugly. Also, for next few seasons Jarry will be cheaper by few million, so that makes a big difference for team that spends to cap and is in win every year mode. If they can have 2-3M extra in cap space, that can be a player signed that may make a big difference and help pens win more than MM would.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

Let's assume they keep both goalies for a moment.

What do you have the total forecast for MM and Jarry? ~$9-10M (5 for MM and 4 for Jarry)

That's a lot of dollars tied up and that is essentially Gally & Schultz walking

 

[ziggyjoe212]

Let's assume they keep both goalies for a moment.

What do you have the total forecast for MM and Jarry? ~$9-10M (5 for MM and 4 for Jarry)

That's a lot of dollars tied up and that is essentially Gally & Schultz walking

That's a good point. If that's what it takes to sign both then it is a no brainer to sign both.

 

[Andy99]

i think it’s going to cost at best $10 mil to keep both Murray and Jarry ($6.25 mil for Murr and $3.75 for Jarry), not to mention the $1.25 mil for DeSmith...I don’t think that’s realistic with having to resign McCann, Kahun and Simon, in addition to the salary for Zucker or whatever other top 6 winger we need and in addition to replacing Schultz...too many $$$...

I don’t see a great way to keep Murray after this year to be honest...let’s say he kills it the rest of the season and wins us another Cup...he’ll be asking for $9-10 mil...and let’s say he and Jarry continue as is and they both play well...but then why do we want to have to pay him $5-6 mil on a new contract when we could pay Jarry for $4 mil or less? Asset-wise, I don’t think there are good reasons to keep Murray beyond this year if Jarry plays well enough, even if it’s not quite as well as Murray...if they plan to keep Murray I think one of the RFAs is gone or someone else like Horny is going to need to be moved..

 

[WayneSid9987]

Team as currently constructed shouldn't pay a dime over 6.5M on goaltending.
Trade one this summer.

 

[cvrle1]

Team as currently constructed shouldn't pay a dime over 6.5M on goaltending.
Trade one this summer.

If MM didnt have crappy nov/dec, he probably would have been asking for north of 6.5M. Hell, he may still ask for it, but most likely wont get it, or at least I hope JR isnt crazy enough to give it to him. Wonder if MM would be willing to go as far as not signing like Nylander did, if Pens dont offer him anything close to what he thinks he is worth.

Since he is an RFA, do you think any team throws offer to him?

 

[cheesedanish87]

i think it’s going to cost at best $10 mil to keep both Murray and Jarry ($6.25 mil for Murr and $3.75 for Jarry), not to mention the $1.25 mil for DeSmith...I don’t think that’s realistic with having to resign McCann, Kahun and Simon, in addition to the salary for Zucker or whatever other top 6 winger we need and in addition to replacing Schultz...too many $$$...

I don’t see a great way to keep Murray after this year to be honest...let’s say he kills it the rest of the season and wins us another Cup...he’ll be asking for $9-10 mil...and let’s say he and Jarry continue as is and they both play well...but then why do we want to have to pay him $5-6 mil on a new contract when we could pay Jarry for $4 mil or less? Asset-wise, I don’t think there are good reasons to keep Murray beyond this year if Jarry plays well enough, even if it’s not quite as well as Murray...if they plan to keep Murray I think one of the RFAs is gone or someone else like Horny is going to need to be moved..

Yeah, that's how I see it as well.

Murray either plays himself out of Pgh with poor play or he prices himself out of Pgh with a good 2nd half of the season.

Jarry flopping the 2nd half of the season and the Pens not having any confidence in him is the only scenario I could see them keeping Murray, but I still don't think they would give Murray a big money long term contract at that point either.

 

[Hobodrifter]

At the end of the day I hope Murray is one that is shipped out. Not because i dont like him, because i think he sucks or anything like that. It is mainly because Jarry was always thought as having better pedigree, plays better positionally, has less flaws (like MMs glove hand as example) and has better mental fortitude. I dont want to argue any of these, and if MM posses same qualities, thats beating a dead horse conversation. While Murray did play huge part in winning 2 cups, he has also shown that he is very streaky goalie, which doesnt help. When he is on, he is great, but when he is off his game, it just looks ugly. Also, for next few seasons Jarry will be cheaper by few million, so that makes a big difference for team that spends to cap and is in win every year mode. If they can have 2-3M extra in cap space, that can be a player signed that may make a big difference and help pens win more than MM would.

That's kinda where I'm at on this. I just feel more comfortable watching Jarry in net, also his puck handling is a huge plus. But, to be fair, Murray is absolutely rounding in to his good/really good mode again. It's a tough call and I have confidence in GMJR to make the right call. He did the last time around.

 

[JTG]

I wonder what kind of hockey moves could be made regarding Murray/Jarry. I just cannot see this organization trading either away for a high pick or a collection of futures. I'd imagine it'd be a pretty decent sized hockey trade.

 

[CrosbyMalkin]

I agree. Murray was the starter coming into this season. Franchise goalie however? Not willing to concede that.

But again, Jarry has been one of the best, if not the best goalie in the entire NHL this year. Correct?

That's a stretch, for a small amount of games maybe which several goalies have done at different times. Jarry has much to prove he is anywhere near one of the top goalies for the year. I hope he proves that but his great numbers have been fading after his hot first 18 games. Will see how Jarry ends the year. My guess is he will be the back up by playoffs. I don't see a time share in the playoffs unless Murray faulters.

 

[Andy99]

Do what thou wilt with stats and more stats...

Matt Murray not living up to expectations for Penguins this season

 

[EightyOne]

You CAN NOT put 10% of cap into goaltending.

If you pay one guy or divide it up whatever, but you literally can not.

If they go over 8mil they need to move one.

Honestly. I'd rather they cap themselves on one or both for a total between 6-8.

 

[The Old Master]

I wonder what kind of hockey moves could be made regarding Murray/Jarry. I just cannot see this organization trading either away for a high pick or a collection of futures. I'd imagine it'd be a pretty decent sized hockey trade.

if it's the best offer we'll take it. we can always flip the picks.

 

[vikingGoalie]

intersting article: https://thehockeywriters.com/tristan-jarry-penguins-mvp-2019-20/

 

[Flying Dego]

intersting article: https://thehockeywriters.com/tristan-jarry-penguins-mvp-2019-20/

Glad there's an article on GSAA. I tried to explain this a while ago and few seemed interested. This is a better standard for grading goaltending than strictly GA or Save %.

It sets an average standard for goalies and the gap between TJ and MM is quite large. Now I'm sure MM will pull his numbers up to end the year but it's interesting.

All in all we can't afford both. I view TJ as solid enough to rely on and he's cheaper. MM can recoup assets for us. That's a harsh reality but business decisions must be made.

 

[wej20]

Can we re-sign Jarry to a 1 year deal and him still be an RFA at the end of that?

 

[Tom Hanks]

Can we re-sign Jarry to a 1 year deal and him still be an RFA at the end of that?

Yes but I imagine he wouldn’t like that. If the pens signed Murray first and I was a team in need of long term goal stability I’d ask JR for a trade or offer sheet him.

I don’t think Carolina would have any qualms about doing that.

Murray’s contract may force a good skater out too