You could even allow for the rare star who went undrafted, and it still wouldn't be realistic to rely on.
The truth is, there was an era when we drafted well because we cast a wider net scouting than most teams. Since that era ended, our draft record has been very different. We have not drafted well since then. I don't think we have even drafted averagely since then.
For example, how many teams can say this:
- We just had our first two 30-goal scorers in a decade, but when did we draft our previous 30-goal scorers? Actually, we drafted the previous ones not a decade ago, but about 20 years ago in that earlier era when we were among the few teams really scouting the globe. So, it took us about 13 years just to draft a 30-goal scorer.
- What about drafting a number one defender, how long ago did we last do that? -It was the year 2000, and we're still not sure if we have drafted another one yet. Plus, that last guy was more of a number two defender who inherited the role of number one for lack of any better option.
- Okay but surely one would think, with all that time not drafting a number one defender or even a 30-goal scorer, we must have drafted a goalie who played at or near the top in the league for a significant portion of his career. -Actually though, the last time we did that was 1991 (and we still don't know if we have another one now).
We did extremely well to pick Larkin, but again let's be completely honest. What was our priority at the draft at that stage in history? Well, silly as it may seem, we were going through a phase where we were drafting players over others just because they were from Michigan. So, Larkin as a pick really belongs to dumb luck, not acumen. Larkin, by the way, ranked 44th in points over all this season (36th in goals, 58th in assists).
The problem with relying on chance at the draft is that everybody has some luck, but even if you have a lot of luck, you still eventually have to face the teams who have luck and are good at drafting if you happen to luck your way into the playoffs. And the truth is that the Detroit Red Wings have been horrible at drafting for almost the last 20 years.
Edit: Also notice that the guys in the video segment at the top of the thread don't talk about the how many more picks we might have had during the rebuild if not for insane contracts.