The COVID 19 Thread (Part II - READ MOD WARNING IN OP)

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ChilliBilly

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Aug 22, 2007
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This is in part due to the fact that we are basically only testing those who are in need of urgent care. There's still a larger number of undiagnosed cases, however, it has been just about long enough for that to become the rule and the stats are indicating that we are faring well. I am worried that the news that we have "flattened the curve" will cause a surge in new outbreaks as people drop their defences. We are working on a 2 week delay and need to be as cautious as we can reasonably be.

When it comes to the news around a lack of risk with airborn or that you are safe with takeout or groceries, its propaganda to keep the morale up and panic down. But the good thing is that we havent had people hoarding masks en masse like TP. With takeout there is an inherent risk any time you do not control the process of cooking/assembly from ingredients to on the plate, but it is restricted significantly (I would hope that people are taking seriously to stay home if they are sick, but there are many out there who cannot afford to miss a cheque unfortunately). The best practice is to treat any foreign object coming into your home as if it is contaminated. Wash your groceries, dont eat out of the bag. Treat all foodstuffs, even if it is packaged, as if it is raw meat and you should be fine.

Local restaurants seem to be stepping it up in terms of sanitization, to the point of having employees wear masks, unless someone sneezes or coughs on your food, you should be fine. If word gets out that an outbreak has been caused by a local restaurant they will sadly go out of business, they don't want that to happen. But you have to settle with the risk of that contamination happening unbeknownst when you choose to let someone else prepare your food. I think that that is a large reason for all of these high profile diagnoses, the upper class have a middle-person for all aspects of life, drivers/cooks/cleaners/child care/etc. whenever there is something that they choose to let someone else act in, there is risk.

It seems overwhelming but these are in reality simple additional steps that we can take to protect each other. We're doing a good job. The important thing to keep in mind is that you can only control what you can control, and what will happen will happen. Recognize and acknowledge the stress and anxiety and then let it go, worry does not change anything. Focus on being present and existing in relation to that immediately around you, don't stress over numbers at a national level or what's going on in the US/EU for now, it doesn't help. Person by person we can continue to slow the roll.

Anyways that's my wine and mango juice infused spiel for the night

Well said. But its a lottery, and you take your chances. Be smart, make your chances better. My wife has asthma, and at this point no clear answer as to whether this is an underlying health issue of concern. We are in full scale hiding. Shopping every 10 days or so, and walks in deserted neighborhoods. We are at 1/5 the rate of deaths of the US and that is because we have handled it much better. Stay safe.
 
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mriswith

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Oct 12, 2011
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I saw an article that compared countries where people commonly wear masks vs those that don't. The article concluded that mask wearing was helpful but the author somehow missed putting China in the "mask wearing" category (sorry, no link). If masks helped that much, would we have a pandemic in the first place?

Here's an article on the effectiveness of masks from the BBC.
The outbreak was withheld from the Wuhan citizens for months as well. This vid from early on talks about how they weren't told to put on the masks for a long time.

 

polarbearcub

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May 7, 2011
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BC Is testing at a fairly high level per capita no? I’ve been searching for comparisons.

I honestly don’t think we will have fans at sporting events until 2021.

I have moments of feeling like I’m in a dream like state.... we are living thru something you only read about in your grade 9 text book with black and white photos.

Stay safe and stay connected everyone. We will get through this
 

polarbearcub

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May 7, 2011
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The states have 10x our population but 50x more deaths so far, this is crazy sad

Their death rate is rapidly increasing. Over 1000 yesterday. They don’t even feel the peak in New York is for another 2-3 weeks. By that time , Other metro regions will be rising rapidly. I don’t think 500,000 deaths in the USA is out of the question by July
 

Kryten

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Their death rate is rapidly increasing. Over 1000 yesterday. They don’t even feel the peak in New York is for another 2-3 weeks. By that time , Other metro regions will be rising rapidly. I don’t think 500,000 deaths in the USA is out of the question by July
They likely pass 6000 total tomorrow, that’s two 9/11s already. They have a 2.5% mortality rate on confirmed cases, if that were to continue then your number could even be dwarfed.
 

F A N

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Aug 12, 2005
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The outbreak was withheld from the Wuhan citizens for months as well. This vid from early on talks about how they weren't told to put on the masks for a long time.



We still aren't told to put on masks here in BC since Dr. Henry doesn't think that masks have proven to offer any protection. That continues to be odd advice for me even though I am not a mask wearer myself. Then again you can't really buy masks so telling us to put on masks may simply lead to panic.
 

Diversification

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Jun 21, 2019
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Their death rate is rapidly increasing. Over 1000 yesterday. They don’t even feel the peak in New York is for another 2-3 weeks. By that time , Other metro regions will be rising rapidly. I don’t think 500,000 deaths in the USA is out of the question by July

NYC new cases are starting to level off similar to Lombardy region of Italy. It’s got a doubling rate of about 10 days. With the incubation period of Covid-19, we can assume a steady state at 14 days doubling time. You’ll see a lag time of about 14 days from doubling time rate as the peak of total active cases.

The other number to keep an eye on is hospitalization to discharge rates. Hospitalization is at about 14% and 2+% for ICU. Length of hospital stay is much shorter than 14 days and ICU stay is shorter than 14 days as well. So discharge to intake will also be a leading indicator.

Stay safe.

source: Coronavirus Statistics: Tracking The Epidemic In New York
 

Samzilla

Prust & Dorsett are
Apr 2, 2011
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The hospitalizations are increasing If they continue at this rate we will be full in 6-8 weeks. Hopefully that number will slow down

Hospitalizations have essentially doubled since March 27th. From last Friday to yesterday (Wednesday) we went from 73 to 142.

source: Emily Lazatin's twitter feed (took the number's she posted on March 27 and compared them to April 1st)
 

tantalum

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Their death rate is rapidly increasing. Over 1000 yesterday. They don’t even feel the peak in New York is for another 2-3 weeks. By that time , Other metro regions will be rising rapidly. I don’t think 500,000 deaths in the USA is out of the question by July

Not sure it will reach 500k but there are some really stupid people down here let me tell you. At 1000 deaths/day it is the third highest daily cause of death. Behind heart disease and all cancers. If it reached 2000 it will be #1 and that seems inevitable. Depending on the models it will be between the 7th and 3rd leading cause of death for 2020. And still people don't treat this seriously.

As an example, a person at the plant I work at (I've been working from home for 3 weeks). His wife came down with a dry cough and fever where she is coughing more than not. But she doesn't have respiratory distress (yet) so she tried to go to work (Walmart) who smartly sent her home immediately. The husband shows up to our work even though our guidelines are if there is a potential case you were in contact with, you aren't allowed to come to the site without having that person you've been in contact with cleared by a doctor. Not only that, but he doesn't think it's a big deal he showed up to work because, and I quote, "we have been practicing social distancing at home. Well except for the Kitchen and Bedroom." Practicing social distancing by the potential infected person showing up to Walmart to work their shift and pretending you are social distancing at home except for the 10 hours of the day you aren't. We STILL have people in the plant that think it's a hoax.
 

Orr4Norris

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Mar 2, 2018
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We still aren't told to put on masks here in BC since Dr. Henry doesn't think that masks have proven to offer any protection. That continues to be odd advice for me even though I am not a mask wearer myself. Then again you can't really buy masks so telling us to put on masks may simply lead to panic.
There just isn’t enough supply here for them to tell everyone to wear masks. They are struggling to supply all the essential workers who obviously should come first.
 
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MS

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Mar 18, 2002
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Zero risk activities outdoors? Seriously? You're saying your friends won't come into your house why? Because there is a risk? You're saying your friends will bring their own beer. Why? Because there is a risk? You only said 1-2 friends. Why? Because the risk grows with more friends meeting together?

We are not in a complete lockdown because our government is hoping that its citizens would do the right thing. Our government has warned that if citizens can't do the right thing they will implement measures to force people to.

The actions you suggest and god forbid you are doing are simply reckless and endangering the lives of others.

Jesus Christ.

Yes, standing 12-15 feet apart (double the recommended distance) outdoors is a zero-risk activity. And … uh, yes, with larger groups of people it's harder to maintain social distancing. I don't think this is some sort of revelation. My friend group takes this very seriously and understands the risks of indoor gatherings and co-touching objects. And understand the non-risks of standing far apart outside.

Again, golf courses are still open for 2-person groups and it's perfectly allowed to play a round with a friend … but standing in a yard with that same friend is reckless?

You're pretending we're in Lombardy right now and trying to shame anyone who isn't acting like this is a full lockdown. There is absolutely nothing wrong with seeing a friend in open air at a safe distance.

Additionally, risks vary by region. Where I am, it's still safer than it was in Metro Vancouver when 18 000 people were being crammed into a hockey rink every couple days until a couple weeks ago. And if I was in Yellowknife, I'd be perfectly comfortable having dinner in a sit-down restaurant, which are all still open. But if I'm in Montreal, I'm not leaving my house for anything but essentials right now.
 

MS

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Mar 18, 2002
53,611
84,136
Vancouver, BC
I believe the mask thing is that people who aren't used to wearing them will adjust it a lot and touch their face while doing it. It can give people a false sense of security because you can also get it from the virus going into your eye. At least that's what I've heard.

Yeah I think they fear the public hoarding face masks much like toilet paper.

Look at the relatively few deaths as a result of the virus in Hong Kong. And look at their close proximity to China (not just geographically but constant movement of people back and forth). Most people wear face masks there. Have to think that is a factor. But I’m no expert.

The data I've seen indicates that, in a vacuum if used properly, there is a small decrease in risk by using a mask. And this is far moreso in terms of people who are sick not spreading it rather than the masks protecting people who are healthy.

But the problems with masks are three-fold:

1) As mentioned, we've seen what happened to TP and sanitizer in the last month. The last thing we need is idiots hording medical suppliers that are needed for heath care workers.

2) Masks need to be used properly. They're only good for a short period of time and don't do anything if you keep adjusting them or touching your face. So if you're re-using a mask or constantly adjusting it, the risks might actually go up.

3) Masks can give a false sense of security. If the mask itself makes you 5% safer but you engage in 10% more risky activity because you think it's totally safe to go shopping more often (or whatever) because you're protected now by a mask … the mask has actually made things more dangerous.

________

There's a bunch of stuff on the internet to the extent of 'Asian countries wear masks and have lower growth rates, so masks must work!' but that's basically a study in people not understanding correlation vs. causation.

The biggest drivers in why things have gone better in SE Asia is that they have prepared governments giving good advice to educated populations who respect that advise. And we see similar good results in Scandinavian countries, where they aren't wearing masks.
 

DL44

Status quo
Sep 26, 2006
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Location: Location:
The bad news: 21 care home now have a case.
The good news so far: 18 of them just have a case.

I work at a care home... fun times.

Somewhat surprisingly... still getting a lot of applicants for the openings we have. Most not applicable since they are working at other sites - which we are actively avoiding having to do.
 

timw33

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55 new cases, 6 new deaths (3 care home outbreak deaths, 1 Fraser Health and first 2 on Vancouver Island)

ICU number up 1 to 68.

Up to 461 recoveries.
 
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polarbearcub

Registered User
May 7, 2011
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Vancouver
55 new cases, 6 new deaths (3 care home outbreak deaths, 1 Fraser Health and first 2 on Vancouver Island)

ICU number up 1 to 68.

Up to 461 recoveries.

Another encouraging day of cases being stagnant . Icu only jumped one.

I wish they would provide testing numbers
 
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F A N

Registered User
Aug 12, 2005
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Jesus Christ.

Yes, standing 12-15 feet apart (double the recommended distance) outdoors is a zero-risk activity. And … uh, yes, with larger groups of people it's harder to maintain social distancing. I don't think this is some sort of revelation. My friend group takes this very seriously and understands the risks of indoor gatherings and co-touching objects. And understand the non-risks of standing far apart outside.

Again, golf courses are still open for 2-person groups and it's perfectly allowed to play a round with a friend … but standing in a yard with that same friend is reckless?

You're pretending we're in Lombardy right now and trying to shame anyone who isn't acting like this is a full lockdown. There is absolutely nothing wrong with seeing a friend in open air at a safe distance.

Additionally, risks vary by region. Where I am, it's still safer than it was in Metro Vancouver when 18 000 people were being crammed into a hockey rink every couple days until a couple weeks ago. And if I was in Yellowknife, I'd be perfectly comfortable having dinner in a sit-down restaurant, which are all still open. But if I'm in Montreal, I'm not leaving my house for anything but essentials right now.

Am I recommending you play a round of golf? Of course not. I consider that an unnecessary risk too.

If you were in Yellowknife your backyard party would be against government recommendations. All public gatherings of any size are cancelled which include "House parties or get-togethers of any size."

What you are comfortable with is irrelevant to the discussion. Nobody cares if you're comfortable taking a sauna in a packed sauna room.
 
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m9

m9
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The data I've seen indicates that, in a vacuum if used properly, there is a small decrease in risk by using a mask. And this is far moreso in terms of people who are sick not spreading it rather than the masks protecting people who are healthy.

But the problems with masks are three-fold:

1) As mentioned, we've seen what happened to TP and sanitizer in the last month. The last thing we need is idiots hording medical suppliers that are needed for heath care workers.

2) Masks need to be used properly. They're only good for a short period of time and don't do anything if you keep adjusting them or touching your face. So if you're re-using a mask or constantly adjusting it, the risks might actually go up.

3) Masks can give a false sense of security. If the mask itself makes you 5% safer but you engage in 10% more risky activity because you think it's totally safe to go shopping more often (or whatever) because you're protected now by a mask … the mask has actually made things more dangerous.

________

There's a bunch of stuff on the internet to the extent of 'Asian countries wear masks and have lower growth rates, so masks must work!' but that's basically a study in people not understanding correlation vs. causation.

The biggest drivers in why things have gone better in SE Asia is that they have prepared governments giving good advice to educated populations who respect that advise. And we see similar good results in Scandinavian countries, where they aren't wearing masks.

To reference #2, N95 masks of decent quality can actually be re-used for lengthy periods of time. This is especially true when you are only wearing them for regular activities like going out shopping for a couple of hours. If you went out a couple of times per week for shopping, that mask would likely be fine for many weeks. Just be careful taking them on and off so that they retain their form and shape to provide a proper seal.

As an aside, if you are one of the people who has a decent quality N95 mask, make sure you are pinching the metal to mold to your nose so you get a proper seal so that the mask can do it's job. For guys, clean-shaven is safer too. I know these sound dumb but there are many people out there using masks that aren't using them properly so if you are going to wear one you might as well wear them properly.
 
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