The All Purpose "Jack Johnson Sucks" Thread

[ChaosAgent]

Worst signing in Penguins history. Not close either...

Scuderi is close, especially because it reflected regressive "get the band back together" thinking. But we got bailed out of that one...

 

[Empoleon8771]

Does anyone else feel like JR deserves a ton of criticism for at best not having knowledge of analytics, and at worst disregarding analytics for the eye test? It's not only Johnson, it seems like this fits with a ton of defensemen that JR acquires. I'm not going to criticize the deal too much because they got him for Scuderi, but Daley was a horrendous possession player in his entire career, and JR justified acquiring him based on his puck moving talent and "he was being misused for Chicago". That's one of the only times that JR ignoring analytics actually worked out, and that's mostly because Daley out-produced his horrid advanced stats.

JR hasn't hit on a defenseman trade or acquisition since acquiring Schultz in 2016, every move since then has been a bust. A majority of those busts were guys with terrible analytics, but JR seemingly disregarded them. Hell, even re-signing Maatta to the contract he got could be argued to be disregarding analytics.

 

[Pancakes]

The thing that baffles me about the signing is that JR and the Pens do use analytics. Some of their signings/trades like Hagelin/Bonino were moves that anyone could see were clearly analytically inspired. They never would have traded Brandon Sutter for example if they didn't pay attention to analytics because everyone who doesnt pay attention to that loves him.

And then they go get JJ and insist they have their own stats/video that shows he's not this bad. Well, he is, and the signing has gone exactly the way anyone who pays attentions to analytics would have predicted.

I genuinely do want the signing to work out. But I have little faith it gets any better. If anything, JJ is gonna get worse as he ages, which is a scary thought.

Does anyone else feel like JR deserves a ton of criticism for at best not having knowledge of analytics, and at worst disregarding analytics for the eye test?

Maybe with defensemen, but as I pointed out JR has made a lot of analytically inspired trades like Sutter for Bones, acquiring Hagelin, etc.

Clearly the Pens have paid attention to analytics at various points in JR's tenure. They've also ignored them at times with disastrous results.

 

[Empoleon8771]

The thing that baffles me about the signing is that JR and the Pens do use analytics. Some of their signings/trades like Hagelin/Bonino were moves that anyone could see were clearly analytically inspired. They never would have traded Brandon Sutter for example if they didn't pay attention to analytics because everyone who doesnt pay attention to that loves him

I think they only did those two trades because Sutter wanted too much money and the Penguins wanted to add speed. I'm not sure I'd say they acquired those guys based on analytics. JR did make a big fuss for about how much he liked Sutter, so I think it was genuine that they only moved him for money reasons.

 

[Pancakes]

I think they only did those two trades because Sutter wanted too much money and the Penguins wanted to add speed. I'm not sure I'd say they acquired those guys based on analytics. JR did make a big fuss for about how much he liked Sutter, so I think it was genuine that they only moved him for money reasons.

It's possible. I seem to recall reading at the time that the Pens/JR intended to use analytics with their moves. And then they did make a lot of moves for possession players. Guys like Winnik, Cole, Perron, Hagelin, Bonino, Hornqvist had iirc pretty solid analytics at least at the time. Hunwick too. And Daley, while having bad analytics, still had far superior stats that way to Rob Scuderi.

JR has of course counterbalanced that with a lot of other moves he's made that look less analytically inspired, with the worst of those being the JJ deal.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It's possible. I seem to recall reading at the time that the Pens/JR intended to use analytics with their moves. And then they did make a lot of moves for possession players. Guys like Winnik, Cole, Perron, Hagelin, Bonino, Hornqvist had iirc pretty solid analytics at least at the time. Hunwick too. And Daley, while having bad analytics, still had far superior stats that way to Rob Scuderi.

JR has of course counterbalanced that with a lot of other moves he's made that look less analytically inspired, with the worst of those being the JJ deal.

The thing is that I don't think any of those guys were brought in based on their analytics. That's the part I'm concerned with, I don't think they target players with bad analytics, I think they either don't know about them or intentionally don't use them. Whenever they acquired these players, it was always based on a change of scenery, wanting to make a shakeup, a money driven move or adding something based on the eye test. I'm not sure that acquiring good analytical players is evidence that they use analytics.

I think it's most likely that JR trusts his eyes and gut way more than he trusts analytics, which makes sense considering he's been a GM for far longer than analytics have existed. I don't think JR traded Scuderi for Daley with any focus on their advanced stats, I think it was just that JR thought the team needed better puck movers. Same thing with Hagelin and Bonino, it was wanting to add speed or not being able to afford Sutter.

 

[JackFr]

What I don't get is that Johnson isn't exactly great looking by the eye test either.

He looks like a big hulking body out there, and occasionally he'll connect a good breakout pass. But in both zones he is just a turnover machine. In the defensive end his default play is to limply smack it up the boards and it ALWAYS gets to the forechecker. If I'm an opponent my game plan is to dump it on Johnson's side and just collect the puck when he chips it off the boards. In the offensive end he does the same f***ing thing or flings a shot in the vague direction of the net where it gets blocked and goes the other way.

On top of that, he's not actually a good penalty killer either as Jesse Marshall has shown! He's a negative impact player on the PK as well! It's bananas.

 

[Pancakes]

The thing is that I don't think any of those guys were brought in based on their analytics. That's the part I'm concerned with, I don't think they target players with bad analytics, I think they either don't know about them or intentionally don't use them. Whenever they acquired these players, it was always based on a change of scenery, wanting to make a shakeup, a money driven move or adding something based on the eye test. I'm not sure that acquiring good analytical players is evidence that they use analytics.

Here's an article where JR specifically says they do use analytics: Analytics as vital as scouting for Penguins GM Rutherford in weighing potential targets.

Notably though, he does say that sometimes there's a difference of opinion between his scouts and his stats guys. And clearly sometimes JR does side with the scouts guys over the analytics as indicated by deals like the JJ signing.

But it seems like the Pens do use analytics when making decisions. The question for me is less whether they look at them and more whether or not they value them enough to avoid making bad decisions when the analytics and scouts don't agree.

 

[zero8771]

The thing that baffles me about the signing is that JR and the Pens do use analytics. Some of their signings/trades like Hagelin/Bonino were moves that anyone could see were clearly analytically inspired. They never would have traded Brandon Sutter for example if they didn't pay attention to analytics because everyone who doesnt pay attention to that loves him.

And then they go get JJ and insist they have their own stats/video that shows he's not this bad. Well, he is, and the signing has gone exactly the way anyone who pays attentions to analytics would have predicted.

I genuinely do want the signing to work out. But I have little faith it gets any better. If anything, JJ is gonna get worse as he ages, which is a scary thought.



Maybe with defensemen, but as I pointed out JR has made a lot of analytically inspired trades like Sutter for Bones, acquiring Hagelin, etc.

Clearly the Pens have paid attention to analytics at various points in JR's tenure. They've also ignored them at times with disastrous results.

Data analytics is an interesting field. It's especially interesting in scenarios like hockey, where each players data points can be heavily influenced by a number of non reproducible factors. It's possible that they made an analytics model that showed JJ had some indicators of being a better player than the dumbed down analytics showed. And it's possible that the model just turned out to be wrong.

Or course its possible all decisions around JJ ignored any type of data points and was entirely old school. But don't discount the opposite. That they thought they had a good model and it pointed to some hidden value in JJ and it's not coming to fruition. They aren't just using simple stats when it comes to projecting how players will do in our lineup

 

[Pancakes]

Data analytics is an interesting field. It's especially interesting in scenarios like hockey, where each players data points can be heavily influenced by a number of non reproducible factors. It's possible that they made an analytics model that showed JJ had some indicators of being a better player than the dumbed down analytics showed. And it's possible that the model just turned out to be wrong.

Or course its possible all decisions around JJ ignored any type of data points and was entirely old school. But don't discount the opposite. That they thought they had a good model and it pointed to some hidden value in JJ and it's not coming to fruition. They aren't just using simple stats when it comes to projecting how players will do in our lineup

This is an excellent point. NHL teams do have analytical models they're using which the public doesn't know about. And NHL teams closely guard their analytics. They might be doing other types of tracking beyond the more simple metrics we have access to.

I'd love to know what the Pens look at. They'll never tell though.

 

[molon labe]

People on this site give GMs way too much credit. Do you really think Rutherford just had a senile moment when giving Johnson that contract, when no one else was offering him anything? Bob McKenzie even said this before Johnson signed anywhere, do you think he was also having a senile moment too:



I really have to emphasize, never underestimate the stupidity of NHL GMs. They're not analytically driven the same way fans are, a majority of GMs are still old school guys who rely on the eye test and love physicality from defensemen.

First and foremost - Johnson never did nor ever will fit the system the Pens/Sully have pushed. Secondly, when does Montreal's decision on contracts represent anything close to league-wide value? The job of a general manager is to restrain in these situations so you don't end up with the Lucic's out there. Now, he didn't sign him to an unreasonable amount - but after Hunwick, he should have known that a players history DOES at least hold weight in an indication of what he can become. Maybe he was just high on his chances after Daley and Schultz - but Johnson didn't even fit the mold of our system. It would be a whole different thing if he took a chance on a PMD who sucked and didn't work out....but he took a chance on a guy who's weak for his size, sucks defensively, is slow, and can't pass. He's just about useless.

An understated part of the Pens recent success has been getting absurd value from cheap contracts. Going out and spending what we have on such an abysmal defense is irresponsible and has cost us.

In every sport - there are signings that happen that are ludicrous because of market 'value'. It is the responsibility of the GM to not succumb to the stupidity of the market and remain cool and collected. In any case - the problem was never his contract, it's his contribution to our team. He is completely misfit here and the signing never made sense.

 

[MrBrightside]

They made moves that analytics supported when Botterill was here. Since he left that’s all changed.

 

[cheesedanish87]

I read a theory on another board that i hope is right.

Basically saying JJ got into a fight last game because he knows that hes close to being a healthy scratch and he wanted to fight to help him stay in the lineup.

I don't know if that's true, but i'm going to believe it because i want it to be true.

 

[Empoleon8771]

First and foremost - Johnson never did nor ever will fit the system the Pens/Sully have pushed. Secondly, when does Montreal's decision on contracts represent anything close to league-wide value? The job of a general manager is to restrain in these situations so you don't end up with the Lucic's out there. Now, he didn't sign him to an unreasonable amount - but after Hunwick, he should have known that a players history DOES at least hold weight in an indication of what he can become. Maybe he was just high on his chances after Daley and Schultz - but Johnson didn't even fit the mold of our system. It would be a whole different thing if he took a chance on a PMD who sucked and didn't work out....but he took a chance on a guy who's weak for his size, sucks defensively, is slow, and can't pass. He's just about useless.

An understated part of the Pens recent success has been getting absurd value from cheap contracts. Going out and spending what we have on such an abysmal defense is irresponsible and has cost us.

In every sport - there are signings that happen that are ludicrous because of market 'value'. It is the responsibility of the GM to not succumb to the stupidity of the market and remain cool and collected. In any case - the problem was never his contract, it's his contribution to our team. He is completely misfit here and the signing never made sense.

You missed the entire point of my post. My point was that GMs are stupid, so the same reasons GMs valued Johnson in the past will be why the Penguins will be able to move him in the future. I wasn't defending JR's decision to sign him, I was saying that the Penguins will be able to move him because GMs have shown time and time again that they don't operate like fans think they do.

I replied to you post in that comment, so I don't know why you're quoting me and pretending I wasn't replying to your post. Your comment was this:

Right now there isn't a team in hockey who doesn't know that Johnson is flat our terrible.

And I replied with "he is what he has always been, so why are GMs suddenly going to stop being stupid with him now?". That's not me defending the contract that JR gave him, that's me saying that GMs have constantly rated him and players like him higher than the analytics do. My comment was asking "why is that changing all of a sudden?". The most frustrating part of these discussions is that people don't read the posts they're replying to.

Data analytics is an interesting field. It's especially interesting in scenarios like hockey, where each players data points can be heavily influenced by a number of non reproducible factors. It's possible that they made an analytics model that showed JJ had some indicators of being a better player than the dumbed down analytics showed. And it's possible that the model just turned out to be wrong.

Or course its possible all decisions around JJ ignored any type of data points and was entirely old school. But don't discount the opposite. That they thought they had a good model and it pointed to some hidden value in JJ and it's not coming to fruition. They aren't just using simple stats when it comes to projecting how players will do in our lineup

I think it's also possible that he's playing well according to their models, which is super scary to think about.

 

[JackFr]

Both teams and private stats companies (like the one Chayka founded) come up with plenty of microstats and models we don't know about. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Pens compiled a pile of "analytics" like Net Battles Won or Penalty Killing Blocks that supported their gut affection for Johnson.

Remember that the Oilers media reported that their team's analytics department concluded that Kris Russell was better defensively than Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Some of these companies are just yes-men who coat a thin veneer of statistical rigour to confirm what teams already think about players.

 

[Paulie Gualtieri]

 

[Speaking Moistly]

Both teams and private stats companies (like the one Chayka founded) come up with plenty of microstats and models we don't know about. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Pens compiled a pile of "analytics" like Net Battles Won or Penalty Killing Blocks that supported their gut affection for Johnson.

Remember that the Oilers media reported that their team's analytics department concluded that Kris Russell was better defensively than Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Some of these companies are just yes-men who coat a thin veneer of statistical rigour to confirm what teams already think about players.

I think it was probably more old school thinking. They may have had some stats like what you mentioned but they put too much value on those and it wouldn’t have mattered if they didn’t have the stats. He's a vet who hits and blocks shots. Great “look at how hard this guy tries. Team player!” stats but they also mean he doesn’t have the puck. The big thing is that they don’t say anything about the effect of those or why it’s happening. If they had stats like that available I doubt it said anything good about Johnson.

It’s just the same thing that had them go after a Reaves or draft someone like Hall. Size and physicality being prioritized. It’s likely they ignored everything else. Including that he’s an aging physical player with no brain.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think it was probably more old school thinking. They may have had some stats like what you mentioned but they put too much value on those and it wouldn’t have mattered if they didn’t have the stats. He's a vet who hits and blocks shots. Great “look at how hard this guy tries. Team player!” stats but they also mean he doesn’t have the puck. The big thing is that they don’t say anything about the effect of those or why it’s happening. If they had stats like that available I doubt it said anything good about Johnson.

It’s just the same thing that had them go after a Reaves or draft someone like Hall. Size and physicality being prioritized. It’s likely they ignored everything else. Including that he’s an aging physical player with no brain.

It's the same reason Gudbranson gets a 3 year deal at $4 million a year. Just like it's the same reason that Dan Giradi got long term $5.75 million a year, got bought out and then got 2 years at $3 million on a year. GMs aren't as analytical as fans, they're not going to trust "fancy mathematics" over their own eyes when they've been GMs for 20+ years. Basically every GM who has been a GM since before 2000 has problems with giving bad analytical players bad contracts, just because they trust their eyes and the eyes of their scouts more than they trust the analytics.

 

[bambamcam4ever]

It's the same reason Gudbranson gets a 3 year deal at $4 million a year. Just like it's the same reason that Dan Giradi got long term $5.75 million a year, got bought out and then got 2 years at $3 million on a year. GMs aren't as analytical as fans, they're not going to trust "fancy mathematics" over their own eyes when they've been GMs for 20+ years. Basically every GM who has been a GM since before 2000 has problems with giving bad analytical players bad contracts, just because they trust their eyes and the eyes of their scouts more than they trust the analytics.

Team have access to much more advanced analytics and data collection than what is publicly available. The Penguins signing JJ doesn't confirm that they do or don't use analytics.

That said, it was obviously a terrible signing from the beginning.

 

[ZeroPucksGiven]

Data analytics is an interesting field. It's especially interesting in scenarios like hockey, where each players data points can be heavily influenced by a number of non reproducible factors. It's possible that they made an analytics model that showed JJ had some indicators of being a better player than the dumbed down analytics showed. And it's possible that the model just turned out to be wrong.

Or course its possible all decisions around JJ ignored any type of data points and was entirely old school. But don't discount the opposite. That they thought they had a good model and it pointed to some hidden value in JJ and it's not coming to fruition. They aren't just using simple stats when it comes to projecting how players will do in our lineup

Or maybe they knew he was a crappy player but wanted to make Sid happy regardless of the financial implications?

 

[Jesse]

Or maybe they knew he was a crappy player but wanted to make Sid happy regardless of the financial implications?

I think indicating that Sid was a part of this ignores Rutherford's penchant for getting his old bands back together. Consider some of the signings he's made and what he's done with regards to the Penguins that also holds a Carolina connection. Hell, you can even go back to look at him make these same nostalgic-laden moves with the Canes.

1. Drafted Kasperi Kapanen (Sami Kapenen's son)
2. Traded for Ron Hainsey in the decline of his career, the two worked together in Carolina.
3. Signed Matt Cullen twice. Ex of Carolina.
4. Signed Jack Johnson to a lucrative deal, the guy he traded from Carolina and never got to work with before he was sent to LA.
5. Brought Cory Stillman back to Carolina on a bad deal to reunite him with Ward/E. Staal
6. I think you get the idea.

 

[zero8771]

Or maybe they knew he was a crappy player but wanted to make Sid happy regardless of the financial implications?

I think that's very very very unlikely. The org certainly took sids opinion as an input, but I have more faith in the org than to say they would do something so unprofessional. They've traded sids buddies before. They would not have signed JJ if they didn't think he would help

 

[Gurglesons]

I think indicating that Sid was a part of this ignores Rutherford's penchant for getting his old bands back together. Consider some of the signings he's made and what he's done with regards to the Penguins that also holds a Carolina connection. Hell, you can even go back to look at him make these same nostalgic-laden moves with the Canes.

1. Drafted Kasperi Kapanen (Sami Kapenen's son)
2. Traded for Ron Hainsey in the decline of his career, the two worked together in Carolina.
3. Signed Matt Cullen twice. Ex of Carolina.
4. Signed Jack Johnson to a lucrative deal, the guy he traded from Carolina and never got to work with before he was sent to LA.
5. Brought Cory Stillman back to Carolina on a bad deal to reunite him with Ward/E. Staal
6. I think you get the idea.

You forgot the La Rose BS.

 

[Shady Machine]

I think indicating that Sid was a part of this ignores Rutherford's penchant for getting his old bands back together. Consider some of the signings he's made and what he's done with regards to the Penguins that also holds a Carolina connection. Hell, you can even go back to look at him make these same nostalgic-laden moves with the Canes.

1. Drafted Kasperi Kapanen (Sami Kapenen's son)
2. Traded for Ron Hainsey in the decline of his career, the two worked together in Carolina.
3. Signed Matt Cullen twice. Ex of Carolina.
4. Signed Jack Johnson to a lucrative deal, the guy he traded from Carolina and never got to work with before he was sent to LA.
5. Brought Cory Stillman back to Carolina on a bad deal to reunite him with Ward/E. Staal
6. I think you get the idea.

And that's not totally dissimilar to other GM's. Shero lamented not re-signing Scuds so much that he waited until he was over the hill and brought him back. Shero trading for Bennett and claiming every former meh Penguin. Botts trading for Sheary and Wilson. Chia signing Lucic in Edmonton. Etc

I suppose the list could be more for JR.

 

[ChaosAgent]

And that's not totally dissimilar to other GM's. Shero lamented not re-signing Scuds so much that he waited until he was over the hill and brought him back. Shero trading for Bennett and claiming every former meh Penguin. Botts trading for Sheary and Wilson. Chia signing Lucic in Edmonton. Etc

I suppose the list could be more for JR.

Don't forget, a significant reason for Chicago's 2013 and 2015 Cups are that they pawned their bad contracts off on former GM Dale Tallon who had since moved to the Florida Panthers.