Prospect Info: The 2020 Entry NHL Draft Thread: Part II

[S E P H]

I think the biggest question mark in how the top 5 plays out is how much do teams value Byfield. Do they see him as an elite #1 centre, a mid-tier #1, or a low-end #1? That should value the Kings because if they see him as potentially elite then he's easily going to go second overall regardless of Stützle or Drysdale making their case. If some teams see him as another Dach, then we're talking about him potentially falling down to 5th or 6th as Perfetti and Rossi should be in that conversation as well.

 

[Chiarelli]

It’s not the lottery process I don’t care for just the timing of it all this year before things are sorted out. Now them doubling down on these results even if we don’t have a season is silly imo. I know we had more than 3/4 a season but in the other year where a cup wasn’t awarded (‘05) everyone had a weighted chance at 1st pick. You have a precedent in both these areas and aren’t staying true to it.

 

[Papa Francouz]

Can someone give me a breakdown of Amirov's game? He's leading this poll and I've seen a decent chunk of people say he could fall and become the steal of the draft. Just curious what his game looks like and what his upside is.

 

[tigervixxxen]

Buried in here

2020 NHL Draft set for Oct. 9-10; No. 1 pick to be drawn Aug. 10

Picks 16-31 will be determined by the results of the playoffs.

 

[S E P H]

Can someone give me a breakdown of Amirov's game? He's leading this poll and I've seen a decent chunk of people say he could fall and become the steal of the draft. Just curious what his game looks like and what his upside is.

How he plays the game is quite similar to Radulov where he slows the game down to his level, but even though he's much smaller than Radulov he's a much better skater than him. In this way he's quite fast pace to the point where a better comparison for me is Burakovsky. Now I don't think he's as good of a pure goalscorer than Andre is. Nonetheless, from what I've seen in his game, Amirov is extremely good at getting into shooting positions and he's not afraid of shooting the puck either. His shot is still a strength, but I don't really see 30 goal potential in him unless he improves the heaviness of it.

Rodion is also a weird player because he's a left-handed winger that plays the right side so it's awkward to see him try to defend, but obviously it has strengths when he's in the offensive zone. He's able to use a lot more of the cross-ice due to setting his body open to majority of the net compared to a left-handed left winger who is closed off to a lot of the West-East game. So, he's able to dish the puck or shoot at will and Amirov is very intelligent player. I don't see high-end dynamic ability, but even as an underager his offensive creativity and decisions with the puck were noticeably ahead of majority of players in the MHL. He has some issues such as being underdeveloped and not really understanding the defensive position, - though I think some comes from it being played on the off side - however, his work ethic is top notch and was always one of the first players to backcheque into the zone...so no stereotypical Russian posts should be used when describing his play. I think he has great offensive skills and instincts to be a really good 2nd liner, but I also suggest his ceiling has a limit.

Sure Rodion is quite consistent and why he's ranked as a mid-tier first round, but one of my favourites in his draft is his country mate Marat Khusnutdinov. Khusnutdinov has more potential red flags and is really raw, but when I watched him enough I must say his the skating and dynamic ability was eerie similar to Ehlers/Fiala 2.0. You lot might not see that as significant, but this lad is currently ranked 35th overall in McKenzie's final ranking. Getting an Ehlers level forward in the late first to early second round is unbelievable value if I were to say.

Interestingly, another observation I wanted to mention is in the games I watched of Amirov, I actually found myself losing focus on him and watching another one of his teammates with the number 85 (I also have good things to say about #61 as well). I had to do a quick glance on EP about who this lad was and found myself surprised that it was another 2020 draft eligible player in Shakir Mukhamadullin. Perhaps I wasn't expecting how well he was going to show up in the games, but I came away really impressed by him.

He doesn't have any sort of physicality in his game considering that he's 6'4" as an 18 year old, but he skates like the wind and every decision he made with the puck was excellent. I don't think he's dynamic since he plays a bit more on the conservative side, but he also wasn't against jumping in the play either. In other words, Shakir decides to distribute more to his teammates than arrogantly take it in by himself compared to someone like Burns. This doesn't mean Mukhamadullin is useless, but he plays more like Lindell or Klefblom which I argue is still quite a beneficial defender. Those are my two cents.

 

[Papa Francouz]

How he plays the game is quite similar to Radulov where he slows the game down to his level, but even though he's much smaller than Radulov he's a much better skater than him. In this way he's quite fast pace to the point where a better comparison for me is Burakovsky. Now I don't think he's as good of a pure goalscorer than Andre is. Nonetheless, from what I've seen in his game, Amirov is extremely good at getting into shooting positions and he's not afraid of shooting the puck either. His shot is still a strength, but I don't really see 30 goal potential in him unless he improves the heaviness of it.

Rodion is also a weird player because he's a left-handed winger that plays the right side so it's awkward to see him try to defend, but obviously it has strengths when he's in the offensive zone. He's able to use a lot more of the cross-ice due to setting his body open to majority of the net compared to a left-handed left winger who is closed off to a lot of the West-East game. So, he's able to dish the puck or shoot at will and Amirov is very intelligent player. I don't see high-end dynamic ability, but even as an underager his offensive creativity and decisions with the puck were noticeably ahead of majority of players in the MHL. He has some issues such as being underdeveloped and not really understanding the defensive position, - though I think some comes from it being played on the off side - however, his work ethic is top notch and was always one of the first players to backcheque into the zone...so no stereotypical Russian posts should be used when describing his play. I think he has great offensive skills and instincts to be a really good 2nd liner, but I also suggest his ceiling has a limit.

Sure Rodion is quite consistent and why he's ranked as a mid-tier first round, but one of my favourites in his draft is his country mate Marat Khusnutdinov. Khusnutdinov has more potential red flags and is really raw, but when I watched him enough I must say his the skating and dynamic ability was eerie similar to Ehlers/Fiala 2.0. You lot might not see that as significant, but this lad is currently ranked 35th overall in McKenzie's final ranking. Getting an Ehlers level forward in the late first to early second round is unbelievable value if I were to say.

Interestingly, another observation I wanted to mention is in the games I watched of Amirov, I actually found myself losing focus on him and watching another one of his teammates with the number 85 (I also have good things to say about #61 as well). I had to do a quick glance on EP about who this lad was and found myself surprised that it was another 2020 draft eligible player in Shakir Mukhamadullin. Perhaps I wasn't expecting how well he was going to show up in the games, but I came away really impressed by him.

He doesn't have any sort of physicality in his game considering that he's 6'4" as an 18 year old, but he skates like the wind and every decision he made with the puck was excellent. I don't think he's dynamic since he plays a bit more on the conservative side, but he also wasn't against jumping in the play either. In other words, Shakir decides to distribute more to his teammates than arrogantly take it in by himself compared to someone like Burns. This doesn't mean Mukhamadullin is useless, but he plays more like Lindell or Klefblom which I argue is still quite a beneficial defender. Those are my two cents.

Thanks for the write-up, @S E P H! I appreciate the detailed analysis of these Russian players since I haven't seen any of them play if they weren't at the WJC.

Amirov sounds like a very good offensive support player, which could be something the Avs need if Newhook successfully transitions to the 2C position for the team. And if he can bring his East-West game to the NHL, he could provide an element to the Avs' offense that seems to be lacking. If he's as smart as you and others say, I'd be fine with that pick. I always want the Avs to draft really smart players, which as you know they only sometimes do. I can't really say anything about the other Russians you mentioned apart from I'd be somewhat surprised if the Avs went for a raw defenseman or a forward riddled with red flags with their only pick in the first two rounds this year. I imagine they'll go for a player that has some safety to their floor, which it sounds like Amirov does.

How do you feel about the late-1st German forwards in Reichel and Peterka? I've found myself being drawn to both of them in recent months, and I'm somewhat sure that it's not due to my German heritage. From what I've seen, Reichel looks to be an incredibly smart player with a decent amount of room to grow, whereas Peterka looks to be a speedy checking line player with some offensive upside. I'd be thrilled if the Avs landed Reichel and content if they landed Peterka.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

 

[Richard88]

Hasn't he been one of Colorado's Russian scouts for a while now? At least I vaguely recall seeing something about him scouting for us, and so this doesn't seem like news to me at all.

 

[S E P H]

How do you feel about the late-1st German forwards in Reichel and Peterka? I've found myself being drawn to both of them in recent months, and I'm somewhat sure that it's not due to my German heritage. From what I've seen, Reichel looks to be an incredibly smart player with a decent amount of room to grow, whereas Peterka looks to be a speedy checking line player with some offensive upside. I'd be thrilled if the Avs landed Reichel and content if they landed Peterka.

Reichel I see more of a 2nd rounder, but I wouldn't hate if Avs decide to pick him. With all the junior seasons ending prematurely you probably have at least 15 lads bunched together and not a lot to separate them except their interviews. He's a really good playmaker and sees the ice well, but I will be interested to see if he has high-end potential. He seems like a safe player in that tweener role akin to what Paul Stastny currently is, but as a winger. One of those does everything well players with decent enough talent in playmaking, but not enough talent to push him over the plateau to be a true star. Nonetheless, he's going to be consistent and I guess he's risen in the rankings considering he looked pretty impressive against men.

Peterka is more of my favourite to get in the draft, but I could see a team love him around 13 - 19th if they don't buy the talent in defenders like Guhle or Schneider. Peterka is a much more of a risk and is way more raw than the other two Germans, but I buy him having a potentially high-ceiling if he's able to put his talent together. We also have to consider that perhaps he does have that talent, but playing on one of the best DEL teams limited his opportunity more than the other players in the top leagues. Peterka is more gritty, but he's definitely the most underrated goalscorer for the 1st round prospects. For me he easily has the potential to consistently score 30 to 35 goals in the NHL and why I have him higher than Reichel.

Peterka has some consistency issues, but some of the flashes he displayed during the season and in the WJC has me more of a believer than others. He has that unteachable instinct of where to go for a shooting position, but his ability to find loose pucks and rebounds first than anybody else is what caught my eye during the WJC. If you go look at his highlights, he has this natural ability and hungry desire in his eyes that a lot of his goals are going through the trenches to poke a puck in or find it in someone's skates. I honestly believe he could have Mike Hoffman type of potential even with his raw ability and inconsistencies, that would still be a good find at 31st.

I swear this happened like early last season, but it wouldn't surprise me if Dater missed it until today.

 

[Richard88]

Reichel I see more of a 2nd rounder, but I wouldn't hate if Avs decide to pick him. With all the junior seasons ending prematurely you probably have at least 15 lads bunched together and not a lot to separate them except their interviews. He's a really good playmaker and sees the ice well, but I will be interested to see if he has high-end potential. He seems like a safe player in that tweener role akin to what Paul Stastny currently is, but as a winger. One of those does everything well players with decent enough talent in playmaking, but not enough talent to push him over the plateau to be a true star. Nonetheless, he's going to be consistent and I guess he's risen in the rankings considering he looked pretty impressive against men.

Peterka is more of my favourite to get in the draft, but I could see a team love him around 13 - 19th if they don't buy the talent in defenders like Guhle or Schneider. Peterka is a much more of a risk and is way more raw than the other two Germans, but I buy him having a potentially high-ceiling if he's able to put his talent together. We also have to consider that perhaps he does have that talent, but playing on one of the best DEL teams limited his opportunity more than the other players in the top leagues. Peterka is more gritty, but he's definitely the most underrated goalscorer for the 1st round prospects. For me he easily has the potential to consistently score 30 to 35 goals in the NHL and why I have him higher than Reichel.

Peterka has some consistency issues, but some of the flashes he displayed during the season and in the WJC has me more of a believer than others. He has that unteachable instinct of where to go for a shooting position, but his ability to find loose pucks and rebounds first than anybody else is what caught my eye during the WJC. If you go look at his highlights, he has this natural ability and hungry desire in his eyes that a lot of his goals are going through the trenches to poke a puck in or find it in someone's skates. I honestly believe he could have Mike Hoffman type of potential even with his raw ability and inconsistencies, that would still be a good find at 31st.


I swear this happened like early last season, but it wouldn't surprise me if Dater missed it until today.

Reichel is already doing very well against men even though he's still really skinny, which suggests to me that he projects to become even more dominant when he's able to use his body more. Conversely Peterka is already close to fully developed, so I don't anticipate that he has that much room to grow, at least not in terms of physical attributes. I think they're pretty close talent-wise right now, but I think Peterka will make an impact in the NHL sooner than Reichel. Once Reichel has grown into his body though the combination of size and high IQ is going to make him a force and I see top line potential there, compared to 2nd line ceiling for Peterka.

I'd be pretty happy with either of them, but if I were to choose I'd go with Reichel because I think he has the slightly higher ceiling, and because we can afford to be a little bit patient with him to allow him to reach it. Given our roster makeup I think it would also suit us better to have a young top 6 forward join the team in 2023, as compared to Peterka who'll probably make it a year (or maybe two) earlier.

 

[S E P H]

Reichel is already doing very well against men even though he's still really skinny, which suggests to me that he projects to become even more dominant when he's able to use his body more. Conversely Peterka is already close to fully developed, so I don't anticipate that he has that much room to grow, at least not in terms of physical attributes. I think they're pretty close talent-wise right now, but I think Peterka will make an impact in the NHL sooner than Reichel. Once Reichel has grown into his body though the combination of size and high IQ is going to make him a force and I see top line potential there, compared to 2nd line ceiling for Peterka.

I'd be pretty happy with either of them, but if I were to choose I'd go with Reichel because I think he has the slightly higher ceiling, and because we can afford to be a little bit patient with him to allow him to reach it. Given our roster makeup I think it would also suit us better to have a young top 6 forward join the team in 2023, as compared to Peterka who'll probably make it a year (or maybe two) earlier.

Again, when each player is playing against men someone might have a better opportunity than another player. I am not necessarily disagreeing with you, but I keep to the premise that Peterka has a higher ceiling, but Reichel should be the more consistent player in the NHL. Peterka plays for EHC Munchen, who've won the DEL title the last two seasons and were the leaders in the league before it was canned due to C19. Berlin were also a good team, which is the club that Reichel played for where they finished 4th, but 14 points behind Munich. Don't get me wrong that Reichel had a better season than Peterka, but we need to talk about projections and Berlin used Reichel in more of a offensive role whereas JJ was playing as a grinder for majority of the time.

 

[Hasbro]

Hasn't he been one of Colorado's Russian scouts for a while now? At least I vaguely recall seeing something about him scouting for us, and so this doesn't seem like news to me at all.

Anyway everyone always respected Goose.

 

[henchman21]

Berlin was one of the best teams in the DEL this year too... both played on good teams. At the U20s, I though Reichel looked more impactful overall. He has a more rounded and easier to define game. Needs 2-3 years to really develop, but has a reasonable projection to a middle 6 role. JPP has more dynamic elements to his game and his highs are better... I'm just not sure where his highs bring you consistently when he develops. Is he a top 6 guy who has spurts as a low end 1st line level... or is he a fringe 2nd line guy who isn't really built for a 3rd line sort of game? Where you fall on that probably dictates where you think he should go. I probably lean more on his talent winning out and would probably rate him as a 1st round guy... but he's going to take 3+ years.

Florian Elias is a German that nobody is talking about, but the kid has NHL upside. He's short, but got a wide frame and there is enough skating and skill to build a game around. Glotzl is worth a flyer too in the later rounds as a big bodied kid that can skate and defend at a high level... more offense in his game than he is given credit for.

 

[henchman21]

@Richard88 Watched that Niemela video... that guy is all over the place in his analysis. Super good in the offensive zone, but not creative or have offensive upside. Too small, but wins more 1v1 battles in the corner. Just don't trust this guy's eyes.

 

[Papa Francouz]

Reichel I see more of a 2nd rounder, but I wouldn't hate if Avs decide to pick him. With all the junior seasons ending prematurely you probably have at least 15 lads bunched together and not a lot to separate them except their interviews. He's a really good playmaker and sees the ice well, but I will be interested to see if he has high-end potential. He seems like a safe player in that tweener role akin to what Paul Stastny currently is, but as a winger. One of those does everything well players with decent enough talent in playmaking, but not enough talent to push him over the plateau to be a true star. Nonetheless, he's going to be consistent and I guess he's risen in the rankings considering he looked pretty impressive against men.

Peterka is more of my favourite to get in the draft, but I could see a team love him around 13 - 19th if they don't buy the talent in defenders like Guhle or Schneider. Peterka is a much more of a risk and is way more raw than the other two Germans, but I buy him having a potentially high-ceiling if he's able to put his talent together. We also have to consider that perhaps he does have that talent, but playing on one of the best DEL teams limited his opportunity more than the other players in the top leagues. Peterka is more gritty, but he's definitely the most underrated goalscorer for the 1st round prospects. For me he easily has the potential to consistently score 30 to 35 goals in the NHL and why I have him higher than Reichel.

Peterka has some consistency issues, but some of the flashes he displayed during the season and in the WJC has me more of a believer than others. He has that unteachable instinct of where to go for a shooting position, but his ability to find loose pucks and rebounds first than anybody else is what caught my eye during the WJC. If you go look at his highlights, he has this natural ability and hungry desire in his eyes that a lot of his goals are going through the trenches to poke a puck in or find it in someone's skates. I honestly believe he could have Mike Hoffman type of potential even with his raw ability and inconsistencies, that would still be a good find at 31st.

Hmm, I guess it's just a difference in philosophy re: Reichel vs Peterka. I think I'd prefer a kid with a projectable floor and a decent ceiling vs a kid who might not cut it in the bottom-6 but has star potential. I don't know, maybe Kaut's impression on me this year made me like his type of player and want to surround our core with that type of player, but I don't think you can really go wrong with a draft pick if you get some type of NHL player out of it. Especially in the late 1st where things begin getting a little dicey.

I also don't quite get the 30-35 goal projection for Peterka, if I'm being honest. He seems to be good in front of the net, but his shot wasn't super accurate during the WJC and it seemed to get blocked before it was even off his stick on a few occasions. His skating and determination are great attributes, though. He's like a Nieto, but with more offensive upside. If he's more Hoffman than Nieto, though, by all means I say let's snag him if we can. If the Avs actually managed to get a 30+ goal scorer with a late 1st, I'd be straight up shocked but in the best way possible.

Also, meant to ask you about Brisson before. If he makes it to the Avs' pick, do you think they should take him?

 

[Richard88]

@Richard88 Watched that Niemela video... that guy is all over the place in his analysis. Super good in the offensive zone, but not creative or have offensive upside. Too small, but wins more 1v1 battles in the corner. Just don't trust this guy's eyes.

Thanks for checking it out and replying. I agree that his analysis seems a bit all over the place. I've watched a lot of his videos and I think that was one of his worst ones; just lacked flow and structure.

That said, to be fair to Yanic (Draft Dynasty guy), Niemela is a tricky one to evaluate as he's playing against men as a 17 year old, but I think he's a tad harsh in his assessment. While Niemela isn't really a flashy player who will run a PP, or a big hulking guy to anchor a PK, I think his all-round ability and IQ are underrated, and the fact that his coaches trust him enough at 17 to have him out there in key situations late in games speaks volumes of his maturity.

The main question for me is how Niemela projects. I think he has a pretty high floor due to his high IQ and not having any glaring flaws, but how much more can he develop?

 

[Balthazar]

If Askarov falls to the mid teens would you guy package Z + our own 1st to trade up and draft him?

Annunen is nice and all but having an elite goalie prospect would be even nicer...and we can afford to wait 3 years. He'd come just at the right time for the 2nd half of our window (and if he's as good as he's projecting to be he could extend that window quite a bit).

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

If Askarov falls to the mid teens would you guy package Z + our own 1st to trade up and draft him?

Annunen is nice and all but having an elite goalie prospect would be even nicer...and we can afford to wait 3 years. He'd come just at the right time for the 2nd half of our window (and if he's as good as he's projecting to be he could extend that window quite a bit).

Absolutely.

Just in general I’d like to see the Avs use Zadorov, and/or Jost to move up in the first. I’d prefer that over getting a couple extra picks later in the draft.

 

[Avsboy]

Zadorov should be packaged for a Top 6 player. He has that type of value.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Zadorov should be packaged for a Top 6 player. He has that type of value.

If his value rebounds in the playoffs I’d be open to that. Maybe as part of a package for a top-6 LW.

 

[The Abusement Park]

Zadorov should be packaged for a Top 6 player. He has that type of value.

Well that's just not true.

 

[Richard88]

If Askarov falls to the mid teens would you guy package Z + our own 1st to trade up and draft him?

Annunen is nice and all but having an elite goalie prospect would be even nicer...and we can afford to wait 3 years. He'd come just at the right time for the 2nd half of our window (and if he's as good as he's projecting to be he could extend that window quite a bit).

Pierre Dorion who is known to be a great assessor of draft eligible talent spoke in an interview with Elliott Friedman and said that he sees tiers as follows:

1. Lafreniere
2-3.
4-12
13-18/20

With that in mind it would certainly make sense to trade up if there's a "top 12" talent available in the teens. Or even just to grab one of the prospects in the 13-18/20 tier.

Mark Edwards of HockeyProspects thinks theres 27 "A" grade prospects though, so perhaps there's a similar level late in the 1st compared to the mid-1st, meaning that it wouldn't really be worth trading up, but rather just picking BPA late in the round.

Either way if we're talking about a "top 12" player like Askarov falling I would definitely consider trading up. I'd rather move up to try to grab an elite prospect rather than picking up an extra long-shot in the mid to late 2nd round.

 

[Avsboy]

Well that's just not true.

He still has a big name (and big frame!) around the league. A Habs blog mentioned acquiring him for Domi.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

He still has a big name (and big frame!) around the league. A Habs blog mentioned acquiring him for Domi.

He’s still a big NHL caliber defenceman, so someone will be open to picking him up, but Zadorov’s value has gone down tremendously this year.

Interestingly it looks like Jost’s trade value is also dropping since the Avs lines today indicate he might not play in the playoffs.

 

[S E P H]

Florian Elias is a German that nobody is talking about, but the kid has NHL upside. He's short, but got a wide frame and there is enough skating and skill to build a game around. Glotzl is worth a flyer too in the later rounds as a big bodied kid that can skate and defend at a high level... more offense in his game than he is given credit for.

Agreed on Elias, but him playing the entire season in the DNL might prevent him from being picked except if somebody well connected in Germany mentioned that he's flying under the radar to one of the head amateur scouts in Europe. I am actually very surprised a CHL team didn't pick him in the import draft even if he's signalled to play in the DEL next season. We might see less German players heading to North America in the future if DEL teams will start playing their youth like what they've started to do after Sweden's model. Glotzl is another very good shout, he would've been a top pick at the import draft if he wasn't given playing time in the DEL this prior too! Problem is similar to Elias, he played majority of the season in the DNL and might've not gotten the exposure he needs to be picked. Still, you can do a lot worse in the 6th or 7th round than any one of these lads.

Also, meant to ask you about Brisson before. If he makes it to the Avs' pick, do you think they should take him?

Yes I would pick Brisson and honestly there isn't a lot of lads I am against picking in the late 1st round for this draft. If we were to go off McKenzie's list, there are just a handful of guys I would pass on like Kleven, Hunt, Cuyelle, Barron, and perhaps some of the WHL forwards. FTR I actually don't hate players like Hunt, Barron, Grieg, or Neighbours and would say they have some really good attributes. However, each one of them either has red flags (Neighbours skating), too raw (Hunt/Kleven), or has overrated talent (Barron). I am still not a big believer in the defenders for this draft, even though there great ones that can be had. There is an interesting stat article out there that I can't find, but it was showing the success rate of NHL picks in the first round. The list was based on tiers and what the stats indicated is that players who were hyped, but fell in the late 1st round made the NHL and produced much more significantly than players teams liked or reached for right before the 20-ish range.

They found the same thing in the top ten as well where picks 1-6 turned to be very good, but picks that were "semi-reaches" around 7 to 12 actually did worse. Kuznetsov, Pastrnak, Vasilevskiy, Burakovsky, Theodore, DeAngelo, Boeser, Konency, Beauvillier, Steel, and Frost are perfect examples of what I mean in terms of hyped players falling for one reason or another, yet being better than a lot of the players picked at least ten picks ahead of them (except Frost who was a good reach). Gunler is a perfect example of someone who could potentially join this list and I still suggest that Peterka, Mysak, and Khusnutdinov are other significant ones to watch out for as well.